The news thread

[ThistleWhistle]

2 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Or not handing out enough

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-tavistock-children-gender-clinic-safety-b2133170.html?amp

The waiting list is unacceptable. 

Fair play to anyone with good intentions working in that area of health. 

“The review said it was not able to yet provide recommendations on the use of puberty blockers and feminising or masculinising hormones due to gaps in the evidence.”

Minefield in there totally - I remember reading and listening to a podcast with Dr Bell on BBC Sounds where he basically said they hadn't been recording what was going on: 

(GIDS was unable to produce for the court any data relating to outcomes and effects, whether desirable or adverse, in children who had been prescribed puberty blockers; nor could it provide details of the number and ages of children who had been given them) 

Tavistock trust whistleblower David Bell: ‘I believed I was doing the right thing’ | Transgender | The Guardian

I think Cass has said puberty blockers will no longer given to under 16 year olds unless part of a clinical trial so seems a pretty strong restriction in comparison to before. 

Hopefully involving Great Ormond Street and the kids hospital in Manc I think it is will help get it back on a more structured/ regulated footing.   

[ThistleWhistle]

2 hours ago, phart said:

The report is saying that certain values are being artificially inflated using draconian fiscal policies.

Devaluing the currency was to stop a catastrophic balance of payments crisis.

Anyway time will tell.

 

The weird bit though is that they've devalued the currency and inflation has reduced (and is slightly below where it was expected to be).  

Russia Inflation Rate - June 2022 Data - 1991-2021 Historical - July Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

They're at 16% and it increased from 8% in January - ours has gone from 5 to 10% so both doubled. 

The other bit I don't get is surely we're involved in the same to an extent continually printing magic money whereas their's seems to actually exist as it's coming in from flogging energy.   

Yonks since studied economics though in fairness and it always just seemed revisionist fairytales to me constantly re-written with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.   

[Malcolm]

The Great Reset by the world economic forum.  Crash the global economy, everyone owns nothing….   State sponsored universal basic income, digital currency and identity.  Everything tracked and controlled by the governments from your spending to carbon emissions.

[Orraloon]

50 minutes ago, phart said:

Guy in the chippy

Was it medieval history studying fat friars?

[duncan II]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Was it medieval history studying fat friars?

Nah, think he was doing Classics, specifically Ancient Grease.

[duncan II]

Just now, duncan II said:

Nah, think he was doing Classics, specifically Ancient Grease.

Or Uk-Icelandic relations, specialising in the Cod Wars.

[duncan II]

Just now, duncan II said:

Or Uk-Icelandic relations, specialising in the Cod Wars.

Or maybe it was biblical history, looking particularly at The Last Supper.

[slasher]

8 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The selection process by the SNP used to be ruthless for rooting out those that were not squeaky clean

Maybe they thought homosexuals didn't get up to unwanted sexual advances behaviour

Thats 2 in the space of a month

I’ve known Jordan since he was a kid. He has always been political and seemed like a decent lad although obviously I couldn’t speak as to his nocturnal habits or whether he’s a bit ‘handsy’ or not. I always felt he was fast-tracked into a position he wasn’t mature enough or ready for though and he has learned a very harsh lesson. Someone has been sitting on this for a while just waiting for the right time. 🤔

[exile]

Fed up with Tory debates? Would be more interesting to see a debate between Mick Lynch and Keir Starmer.

[Diamond Scot]

5 hours ago, Malcolm said:

The Great Reset by the world economic forum.  Crash the global economy, everyone owns nothing….   State sponsored universal basic income, digital currency and identity.  Everything tracked and controlled by the governments from your spending to carbon emissions.

Its this bit i dont understand. If somebody owned a property. Surely they would still own said property after the economy crashed?

[shunkyboy and the fluffer]

Starmers sacking of Sam Terry has to he a massive own goal. Fucking bullshit excuse about not having permission. Expect more of this from the prick in upcoming pay negotiations. So much for the party of the workers.

[Malcolm]

7 hours ago, Diamond Scot said:

Its this bit i dont understand. If somebody owned a property. Surely they would still own said property after the economy crashed?

yeah, they would.  Financially it might not be worth very much if nobody has the money to buy it and the cost of borrowing is through the roof.

The value of anything is notional to the amount of money in the economy.  We have seen asset values rise as money has been constantly pumped in to the economy through low interest rates and quantitative easing.  The problem is that the actual supply of “things”, necessities, eg, food and energy is dropping versus actual demand which drives up price. Money supply is being tightened so only those more well off will be able to afford the necessities as they increase in value relative to the money supply.

[Diamond Scot]

3 hours ago, Malcolm said:

yeah, they would.  Financially it might not be worth very much if nobody has the money to buy it and the cost of borrowing is through the roof.

The value of anything is notional to the amount of money in the economy.  We have seen asset values rise as money has been constantly pumped in to the economy through low interest rates and quantitative easing.  The problem is that the actual supply of “things”, necessities, eg, food and energy is dropping versus actual demand which drives up price. Money supply is being tightened so only those more well off will be able to afford the necessities as they increase in value relative to the money supply.

True but if somebody owns a house then they could pass down to their children etc. 

[ThistleWhistle]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe

Not only are sanctions potentially looking counterproductive but they're strengthening China and Iran. 

This looks an absolute shambles 

[phart]

This breaks the sanctions down into different components and explains how their effetiveness differs across sectors.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/why-western-sanctions-against-russia-work-and-how-make-them-work-better

 

"...Many experts believe the sanctions are not working. Russia does not appear willing to stop the war, and the rhetoric of the leadership is only getting more aggressive. Teasing apart export from import sanctions helps disclose the source of concern.

Notably, the export sanctions are not at the moment producing all the results the West sought, though the picture may well change—or be changed. Because of a shrinking oil and gas supply, leading to higher energy prices, the Russian government coffers will see record inflows in 2022. Russia’s current account surplus reached $110.3 billion in January–May 2022, a 3.4 times increase over January–May 2021...."

"...Unexpectedly for many observers, the sanctions on Russia’s imports have proved much more effective than the sanctions on its exports. Russia stopped publishing foreign trade statistics, so we can use only indirect data. Based on VAT revenues, we estimate that Russia’s imports, since sanctions, decreased by at least 2.3 times. Revenues from import excises and duties decreased even more, by 3.1 times...."

 

So loads of money coming in to prop up figures GDP measured against a diminished production capability where the military war machine can't build replacements , you can see why there is a disagreement on effectiveness. Some things booming other things busting.

Will be interesting to see how the actual war is going to go. Ukraine seemingly managing to re-take some territory in the South , Russia consolidated the east though. To be honest I thought Russia would just roll over Ukraine and it hasn't happened.

 

[Clyde1998]

3 hours ago, phart said:

This breaks the sanctions down into different components and explains how their effetiveness differs across sectors.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/why-western-sanctions-against-russia-work-and-how-make-them-work-better

 

"...Many experts believe the sanctions are not working. Russia does not appear willing to stop the war, and the rhetoric of the leadership is only getting more aggressive. Teasing apart export from import sanctions helps disclose the source of concern.

Notably, the export sanctions are not at the moment producing all the results the West sought, though the picture may well change—or be changed. Because of a shrinking oil and gas supply, leading to higher energy prices, the Russian government coffers will see record inflows in 2022. Russia’s current account surplus reached $110.3 billion in January–May 2022, a 3.4 times increase over January–May 2021...."

"...Unexpectedly for many observers, the sanctions on Russia’s imports have proved much more effective than the sanctions on its exports. Russia stopped publishing foreign trade statistics, so we can use only indirect data. Based on VAT revenues, we estimate that Russia’s imports, since sanctions, decreased by at least 2.3 times. Revenues from import excises and duties decreased even more, by 3.1 times...."

 

So loads of money coming in to prop up figures GDP measured against a diminished production capability where the military war machine can't build replacements , you can see why there is a disagreement on effectiveness. Some things booming other things busting.

Will be interesting to see how the actual war is going to go. Ukraine seemingly managing to re-take some territory in the South , Russia consolidated the east though. To be honest I thought Russia would just roll over Ukraine and it hasn't happened.

What a lot of people are forgetting is sanctions don't work over night - especially if there's enough resources in reserve to keep important sectors going for a period. What's probably more of a surprise is the impact the sanctions have already had.

With sanctions there will always be sectors which will benefit from them, especially if they were previously competing against foreign industries. However, it's likely the efficiency of said sectors would be lower than the international equivalents or take resources away from previously efficient sectors; autarkies have worse levels of economic success than free trade nations (see comparative advantage for an explanation).

One thing to remember is what GDP is: GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports). The increased value of exports relative to imports will increase, or limit the reduction, GDP in the short term, but if both are in decline then GDP will fall in the longer term. Also, if Russia is liquidating their reserves to prop up the economy, their GDP will hold up for a period - however those reserves cannot last forever and can only soften the decline. Worth pointing out that GDP alone cannot determine the health of an economy, in the same way you cannot determine the health of your car solely from the rev-counter.

Russia's economy is highly dependant on exports of natural resources and Russia is more dependant on exports of oil and gas than Europe is in regards to imports. Even with the higher prices, trading with Asian countries will not offset losing European trade in this area (if and when Europe is ready to completely cut off energy exports from Russia).

The longer this goes on, the more likely a Ukrainian victory becomes. The sanctions will limit Russia's ability to procure weapons and parts, while Ukraine will continue to receive foreign aid - which is often more advanced weaponry than Russia had to begin with.

[phart]

25 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

What a lot of people are forgetting is sanctions don't work over night - especially if there's enough resources in reserve to keep important sectors going for a period. What's probably more of a surprise is the impact the sanctions have already had.

With sanctions there will always be sectors which will benefit from them, especially if they were previously competing against foreign industries. However, it's likely the efficiency of said sectors would be lower than the international equivalents or take resources away from previously efficient sectors; autarkies have worse levels of economic success than free trade nations (see comparative advantage for an explanation).

One thing to remember is what GDP is: GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports). The increased value of exports relative to imports will increase, or limit the reduction, GDP in the short term, but if both are in decline then GDP will fall in the longer term. Also, if Russia is liquidating their reserves to prop up the economy, their GDP will hold up for a period - however those reserves cannot last forever and can only soften the decline. Worth pointing out that GDP alone cannot determine the health of an economy, in the same way you cannot determine the health of your car solely from the rev-counter.

Russia's economy is highly dependant on exports of natural resources and Russia is more dependant on exports of oil and gas than Europe is in regards to imports. Even with the higher prices, trading with Asian countries will not offset losing European trade in this area (if and when Europe is ready to completely cut off energy exports from Russia).

The longer this goes on, the more likely a Ukrainian victory becomes. The sanctions will limit Russia's ability to procure weapons and parts, while Ukraine will continue to receive foreign aid - which is often more advanced weaponry than Russia had to begin with.

They were running 9.5% interest rates as well, down to 8% now, some really crazy capital controls are in place as well.

[chaff]

Don't know if its in the news but allegedly prince William is having an affair and takes it up the arse with a strap on 

[kumnio]

2 hours ago, chaff said:

Don't know if its in the news but allegedly prince William is having an affair and takes it up the arse with a strap on 

Ryanairs tweet wasn't received well by a section of the UK public 😂

[Ally Bongo]

3 hours ago, chaff said:

Don't know if its in the news but allegedly prince William is having an affair and takes it up the arse with a strap on 

After seeing articles in newspapers written by women saying pegging is good for relationships i can only assume that this is their counter offensive to the trans rights brigade

[chaff]

3 hours ago, kumnio said:

Ryanairs tweet wasn't received well by a section of the UK public 😂

Never seen it kumnio, can you share?

[phart]

The MET police court case going on at the moment has some interesting reasoning from the defending officers

 

[chaff]

Same police officer probably gets upset about being called a pig.

[Orraloon]

So Sunak wants to fine people for missing their GP appointments? In principle that's probably fair enough. The number of people who miss their appointments is quite shocking. But has he thought through the practicalities of how that would actually work? Does he have a clue as to how the NHS operates? I'm guessing probably not. 

I suppose it's just a gimmick to get Tory party members to vote for him, but this level of thinking is a wee bit scary.

[thplinth]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

So Sunak wants to fine people for missing their GP appointments? In principle that's probably fair enough. The number of people who miss their appointments is quite shocking. But has he thought through the practicalities of how that would actually work? Does he have a clue as to how the NHS operates? I'm guessing probably not. 

I suppose it's just a gimmick to get Tory party members to vote for him, but this level of thinking is a wee bit scary.

What compensation do patients get when the ambulance does not turn up for 2 hours and when it does they then sit in a queue of ambulances outside A&E for another 8 hours?