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  1. I've not been following it closely at all. Someone in the FT was saying it was a shrewd move to make the supreme court say no, cause then it just has the inequality out in the open now. Also their analysis was it would result in an increase in support. My own thing is all the people who are certain one way or another are making the situation seem a lot more simpler than it actually is. The numbers show the will of the people is really quite balanced. It's going to be tricky. Showing substantively the democratic deficit through these sort of things will help shift numbers. I'm pretty ill-informed though not going to pretend I can survey the chessboard and see what moves are going to happen. I just think revealing the cloven hoof of the supreme court is a good thing.
  2. Yeah it's all over my head the modelling. So many variables and once your out of the group stages, it's just one game. Just using a single variable of who's won it in the past gets you Brazil as the most likely winner in roughly the same proportions anyway without the need to run thousands of simulations.
  3. You can see how your model performs versus this one. Brazil then Belgium on this model. Got Brazil winning 25% of time and Belgium about 20%, Argentina just a tad behind Belgium so you essentially have the same top two predictions. Although they've got a higher chance for each of them.
  4. Fucking wild. It just moves from consumer thing to another. I was watching something and someone made a good point I felt. They were saying how capitlalism used to expand by territory , imperailism to create new markets. Now it's expanding into your attention/consciousness. More and more ads on everything. No breaks in the cycle, Halloween done, onto christmas. Just leeching onto more and more.
  5. Looks like the run off in Georgia is moot in the sense of who controls the senate. Nevada been called for Dem incumbent. House still really close as well. Big turnout in the younger folk as well
  6. They're moving their winter lines to the other side of the river according to this guy who said they'd do this a couple of days ago
  7. I'll go with it trending to the historical mean. "In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice."
  8. I don't think I've used the term "Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine" but I don't think the qualification for whether someone says something coached is , have i used the term. Although what you're saying isn't implausible now I think on it. You might be right. Or maybe he has heard it on the BBC or elsewhere and just parrots it. The way others parrot what they see/hear in media.
  9. As someone who is coming up to 2 decades of not paying license cause of BBC propoganda during Iraq invasion. I'm not getting the point here. It was an illegal invasion all wars of aggression are. Of course the BBC is always in full flow with bullshit. I think both things can be correct.
  10. I was just assuming some sort of exchange program cause it was one semester. My experience is 2 decades out of date though.
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