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aaid

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aaid last won the day on September 26

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  1. I see his latest one is that the SNP should get behind Johnson's deal in return for a section 30 order. Putting to one side that would go against how Scotland voted in the EU referendum, he's trying to back that up by some bogus Twitter poll which will presumably show that people who were going to vote Yes would still do that regardless. That's not the point. To *win* a referendum you need to get more people who voted No in 2014 to vote Yes and so using tactics to secure a referendum that makes that more difficult in self defeating. It really is deranged.
  2. Just my 2p worth but I think a lot is to do with personal animus and goes back to 2014. He really doesn't like the Greens and in particular Ross Greer. I think that's because it's supposed to be Greer who mandated that no Yes Scotland group could have anything to do with him. I remember some friends who were prominent in one of the larger Yes groups telling me they had to pulp a whole load of leaflets because they had quotes from Wings on them. I get the impression he feels he didn't get the credit he thinks he deserved and also that he feels let down or betrayed by certain individuals. He's certainly alluded to both on occasions. Funnily enough, a lot of these people are pretty vocal on the other side of the GRA "debate".
  3. To guarantee picking up a list seat, you would need to get around 7% of the vote. That's 7% of the overall vote, not 7% of the SNP vote, or 7% of the Indy vote. You might possibly pick up a seat if on less than that, it depends on how the constituency seats go and the arithmetic around the actual votes received by the other parties. There's also no guarantee that you will pick up seats from the Unionist parties in fact the party most likely to suffer in the first place would be the Greens and the SNP, for the Greens they are another party that would likely poll around 7% of the vote, for the SNP, they're the dominant party, any chance they have of getting list seats is likely to be in the last round, where they will come up against parties with lower vote shares. In that case, it will make no overall difference to pro-Indy majority. Depending on how the arithmetic plays out, it could actually split the Indy vote and let in other Unionist Parties. If they poll less than 7% then its almost guaranteed that they will split the Indy vote and will enable pro-Union Parties to pick up additional list seats which could impact on the overall majority. It's only when a "wings" party starts to pick up around 12% of the overall vote - so around 30% of the SNP vote, assume SNP list vote is approx 40% without and second party - that there starts to be any significant impact and the second party starts to take seats off the pro-union parties. This approach is predicated on the SNP being dominant in the constituencies. Remember in 2016 there was a big call to "Lend your list vote to the Greens", which was similarly predicated on the SNP winning all the constituencies as they had in the UK GE In 2015. One of the most vocal critics of that was a certain Stuart Campbell and he was correct as the SNP didn't win all their seats and so needed the additional list seats they got. None of this is as guaranteed and risk free as is being made out. The d'Hondt system isn't particularly complicated but it's next to impossible to predict with any certainty what the overall allocation of list seats will be.
  4. They won't be voting on Abortion or same sex marriage, that's for sure.
  5. What the DUP wanted was the Petiton of Concern mechanism to apply which would mean they had an effective veto. The original proposals would be that NI would have to *opt-in* to remaining aligned to the EU, that would be the mechanism which would mean that the DUP would have an effective veto. The other side of that coin would be if NI had to *opt-out* of being aligned to the EU would give an effective veto to Sinn Fein. Having a simple majority means there's no veto for either side but also there's no support within Stormont for opting out and that's regardless of whether or not there's a Nationalist majority.
  6. There aren't greater numbers in the Nationalist parties. The current situation is that there are more anti-Brexit MLAs in Stormont though that's why they don't want a simple majority vote. The current breakdown is (90 seats): Unionist (DUP, UUP, TUV, Independent) 40 Nationalist (SF, SDLP) 39 Non-Alligned (Alliance, Green, PPP) 11
  7. This kind of blows the "progressive v conservative" argument out of the water. https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1184575491996606468?s=20
  8. TBH, who really knows how this will play out. I wonder if Johnson's calculations are that if the deal doesn't get through, he'll be forced into a extension which will almost certainly lead to an election. He'll then blame that on both the opposition *and* the DUP and he hopes to get a big enough majority he isn't reliant on support from any other party and so can then get this deal passed.
  9. The DUP have a real problem here. On one hand, I can totally see - from their perspective - why they need to be as hardline as possible to appease their core support however, they need to take into account that NI as a whole voted against Brexit and that wasn't just the Nationalist community. There'll be significant minority of DUP voters - particularly those in border areas - who will be against any kind of border both for economic and security concerns. Now I don't for a second see any of these people voting for Sinn Fein or the SDLP but they could conceivably shift to the UUP which could cost them seats in any upcoming election. There's also talk of an informal pact between Sinn Fein and the SDLP to stand aside in certain constituencies. There's a couple of constituencies where if you take the SF and SDLP vote, it's larger effort than the incumbent DUP vote (based on 2017) and importantly, one of those is Nigel Dodds. I think they're between a rock and a hard place here, a position of their own making
  10. Not sure about the last part. Seems to me a lot of people who are against self-id - or at least are pointing out the problems - are pretty progressive on pretty much every other topic, not that I'm saying that pro or indeed anti self-id are necessarily progressive positions.
  11. McTominay's been transferred to Real Madrid, I must have missed that one.
  12. It's something which is more prevalent on Twitter than it is in real life. Since I follow both Wings and Angry Salmond, I seem to get bombarded with both sides of the debate. Funnily enough outwith zealots on either side of the argument the majority of the population couldn't really care about it and that's borne out by a recent poll that Wings commissioned - with a suitably leading question designed to maximise support for his side - showed.
  13. Why do you think that other compositions of families somehow cause the destruction of that particular family unit.
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