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aaid

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aaid last won the day on June 17

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  1. Labour won that election with a majority of around 7,000 which was about 20% of the vote. If there were shenanigans going on, I doubt it was to a level to impact the actual result but more likely to be linked to one or more prominent individuals.
  2. When you mentioned Argyll and Bute, it reminded me of this, perhaps this is where you got it from. I read this at the time and it's a complete load of nonsense which seems to be predicated on their views - as Yes activists - that their internal polling and canvassing didn't reflect the actual result so went looking for reasons why that was the case. The missed the obvious explanation that people change their minds and people lie. http://www.thescottishstandard.scot/scottish-politics/the-postal-ballot-at-the-scottish-independence-referendum-fraud
  3. I suspect that the marked register that went missing would probably show that a lot of people rose from their graves to vote in that election.
  4. Unless Bournemouth decide to cash in now rather than lose out next year and get nothing.
  5. What in your opinion is so eye opening about that?
  6. True. It would have been interesting to see how things might have turned out had RFK not been assassinated and ran against Nixon in 68 rather than Hubert Humphrey.
  7. Thanks - confirms what my mate said. No tally or breakdown on votes either by postal vote or polling station so any estimates on those are due to sampling by observers at the count - i.e. their best guess.
  8. I don't think cancer is any more prevalent now than it was 20 years ago. It's probably a case that you are getting to an age when people you know are being diagnosed.
  9. Uncle of mine passed on yesterday. He was first diagnosed six years ago, had multiple cancers, pancreas, liver, melanoma. When he was diagnosed he was basically told it was terminal but he had six years of pretty good quality of life that he probably wouldn't have gotten even ten years ago. The advances in treating and curing cancer have been huge over the years.
  10. If you're interested in this sort of stuff it's worth reading up on the 1960 US election, often overlooked as history has judged JFK good, Nixon bad.
  11. The US presidential system is one where electoral fraud can - and probably does - have an impact. Part of that is because the operation of the election is carried out at a state and not federal level and states can - and do - place legislative restrictions on the electorate which has a gerrymandering impact. The other aspect is that because of the electoral college system which means that whoever wins the most votes in a state - by a majority of one - gets all the electoral college votes. Of course Florida in 2000 was particularly notorious because that got George W Bush over the line and the Governor of Florida at the time was his brother, Jeb. The 1960 election where JFK beat Nixon is similarly "tainted". There's a lot of allegations over voting in Cook County, Illinois - Chicago - which saw Kennedy win Illinois by less than 9000 votes, which took him over the line. This is the root of the alleged links between the Kennedys and the Mafia.
  12. I'm pretty sure that they don't count postal votes separately and they are mixed in with all the other votes so there won't be a breakdown. As I mentioned before, it would be possible that activists could get a guesstimate based on the verification process for postal votes but that would be inaccurate. I can double check this with a friend of mine who was at the Edinburgh count.
  13. How exactly would that work and how would you keep that quiet?
  14. To the extent that it resulted in a 400,000 majority?
  15. I seriously doubt that there were more Yes votes on the day and that it was postal votes that swung it. There were something like 700,000 people registered for a postal vote and even assuming they all voted, you are looking at something like 80% of those votes to be No to give you the result on the day. Even if that was the case, so what? If you look at the sort of people who regularly have a postal vote - I don't think you can draw any conclusions on people who took one for the referendum only because, for example, they were on holiday - then they are people who either cannot guarantee they will be around to vote or who have difficulty in getting to the polling station. So that would be people whose jobs take them away at short notice, people who live in rural areas and the elderly. These are not Yes-friendly demographics, so it wouldn't be a surprise if there were more No postal votes, but I'd be amazed if it were to the level people are suggesting. Funnily enough, there were rumours circulating on the night of the EU referendum that Leave had done well on the postal votes - similar demographic I'd argue. This got legs on the night of the referendum when Ruth Davidson said that she knew from the postal votes that No would win, that was interpreted as somehow Better Together were up to something underhand. That was a stupid thing for her to say as it gave the game away to an extent and got her in some bother - points to her lack of political acumen. Postal votes are opened prior to the count to check that they are valid but they are counted along with the other votes once the polls close. This is done in front of party or campaign representatives to ensure that everything is above board. No official count takes place and the agents aren't allowed to take tallies. However, especially with only two options on the ballot paper it's impossible not to get a feel for how things are going. I've no doubt Yes were getting similar feedback. There is scope for electoral fraud with postal voting - as there is with personation - but I'd argue that's only the case when its targeted and when a couple of hundred votes will make a difference, for example in a council election, it would be next to impossible for a country wide referendum. If people are looking for the reasons why Yes lost, there's a much more simpler explanation, the arguments weren't good enough to convince enough people to vote for independence. However, if you prefer tin hat conspiracy theories then knock yourselves out.
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