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exile

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exile last won the day on August 11

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  1. I don't know but wouldn't be surprised if there's a rise in numbers joining when there is a flurry of competitive games and/or a debate about a manager to sack/back. Those may be slightly more compelling reasons to join than club business or summer debates about shapes of planets (interesting in their own way but not likely to attract new members)
  2. I thought Salmond was the one more pushing for a referendum... Anyway, a referendum is different from politics of a General Election. You could as easily say that the SNP could have been bolder and gone for a GE election campaign based on an independence ticket (ie SNP majority => independence). They would still have had massive anti indy campaign against them and lost 20 seats but would have won something by winning the election (they did 'win' the election but no one noticed). Maybe even a few more pro indy supporters would have actually got out and voted for them, too. However that is water under the bridge now.
  3. That seems plausible (except the last sentence)
  4. exile

    Tartan Army are getting what they deserve

    Is it not too later to literally get rid of him now, there would need to be a recruitment process and who is likely to be a better manager around now that was not suitable last time? Or have a temporary, emergency caretaker manager, hoping for a new manager bounce, but if so, who?
  5. "It’s time to think about the unthinkable – a disintegrated UK, a reignition of the Troubles" https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-here-s-how-post-brexit-ireland-could-turn-out-1.3667967
  6. I don't think anyone is holding out fig leaves or expecting a positive response. And I'm not saying I trust Labour, favour coalitions, deals, or the "Irish Sea border" scenario. I am inviting people to consider conditions in which there could be a game-changing change in circumstances in which an indyref or even independence might happen in the relatively near future. If you discount these kinds of scenarios, we are currently looking at a period of perpetual Westminster denial of any right to hold indyref2, at least until SNP lose power in Holyrood; a generation of unionists who believe the issue has been put to bed for a generation; and a very slow and uncertain wait for demographic change to edge support for indy gradually upwards towards and beyond 50%. Without the Brexit vote we could easily be looking at 10 years or more before another indyref (we are already 4 years and counting, since indyref1) . The Brexit situation is one clear and present case where all the cards are in the air and could fall in unpredictable ways, and one of those ways could loosen the union and pave the way to independence. It's not necessarily the most likely scenario but I invite anyone to share ideas for the most likely scenario(s) in which (a) a right to indyref is granted, (b) a referendum is actually called, and (c) a majority is secured, in the foreseeable future.
  7. exile

    Any good printers out there?

    OK, i suppose I could try that. Thanks!
  8. I wasn't suggesting there'd be a coalition. More, that he might need propping up in the way the DUP are propping up the Tories. I'm just saying it's possible to imagine a Labour govt, with SDLP/UU support, allowing a single market/ customs union option that puts a bit of an extra separation in the Irish Sea, that the Tories/DUP would not allow. If that were to happen it would be a small but significant new step in loosening the union. It's true that the SNP factor scared people in 2015 when indyref was fresh. But things are different now and could be more so in the future. It's quite possible that the next GE will be in a fevered context of a Brexit cliff-edge teetering between deal and no deal. In that context the dominant topic could be securing a good Brexit deal which Labour could offer by going where the Tories wouldn't dare. We learn that a relatively high proportion of people would be prepared to let NI go - and even Scotland - as a price worth paying for a clean Brexit. I think it's reasonable to imagine in what circumstances that might happen.
  9. The quotes tell us that Corbyn is not against self-determinism in principle. His attitude to Scotland shifts between indifference/keeping his own counsel and opposition. Opposing a referendum at this stage is a political tactic. Even at times the SNP says it is not calling for a referendum at a particular point in time. Just like Labour and other parties opposed an EU referendum, they saw it as a distraction that favoured their opponents. Corbyn doesn't say independence is in principle wrong, or that might not be right some day. Look at his choice of words. He says it would hurt some people. Many people could agree with that. Both independence and Brexit will favour some people and hurt others. It's not saying it's wrong in principle. Sure, his message is anti independence now but it's not his first priority. Just like his desire to remain in the EU, which pretty soon evaporated when he not longer had to pretend. Of course I'm not saying if you want independence it's OK to vote for Labour. I'm saying a Corbyn-led government is more likely than the Tories to make concessions that loosen the Union in the Brexit upheavals. Especially, a Corbyn-led government propped up by Irish and Scottish nationalists.
  10. I don't think it's a red herring at all, free hit or not. It directly tells us Corbyn is less wedded to the precious precious union than the Tories. And going back to the original point, it makes it conceivable that a Corbyn government could accept compromising the union in a way the Tories never would.
  11. Except that Corbyn is sympathetic to a united Ireland and ambivalent about the monarchy. I'd say he tolerates the union and monarchy, as a means to his ends, which are socialist. For the Tories, the union and monarchy are themselves among their ends, that they are conserving. Conservative and Unionist party: the clue is in the name.
  12. On the panel are James Cleverly MP, Sir Keir Starmer MP, Nish Kumar, Michael Dobbs and Zanny Minton Beddoes.
  13. So how about this scenario. The government collapses, there's a general election, and a Corbyn-led government, who in return for support for its domestic leave-friendly socialistic agenda in England, is prepared to allow NI to stay in the single market and customs union, supported by SDLP and a possibly resurgent pro EU Ulster Unionist party. In that scenario, whether by accident or design, they could also allow Scotland to stay in single market and customs union (possibly dressed up as a quasi-federal solution, or in attempt to curry favour with Scottish remainers, and even tempt SNP supporters to a sort of devo max, hopefully killing off nationalism stone dead this time dammit). A somewhat shoogly union, but with a properly 'left' England. Could that be a price Corbyn Labour in England would be prepared to pay?
  14. The more the Brexiteers imsist the Irish border can be easily sorted with a bit of good will and hi tech, the less easy time claim a Scottish border would be a disaster.
  15. Nicola Sturgeon's challenge is much more subtle and complex. She has to be simultaneously a diplomat carefully building alliances at home and abroad and run a prudent domestic agenda, looking after the good of the country as a whole while pressing an indy agenda. Sure, if all she had to do to gain - or maintain - power was have a couple of playoffs against rivals, and once in power swan round the world backed by the largest navy and nukes etc then yes she could be more gung-ho and tell the world to eff off. But she ain't in that position but instead has more of the skills for the job she actually has to do. That said Salmond may well have suited more the role of FM in opportunist referendum, rallying the first 45% to the cause, but the next step needs a different game.
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