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exile

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exile last won the day on November 10 2018

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  1. I was pointing to an option that I thought worth a look, I'd suggest the writer of the original article is the best one to defend or expand on it. I thought it's an interesting option to look at, along with seeing what the other options are. I am not promoting any one of them. As I said, I'd be happy to hear others' alternative suggestions for the way forward. All options face the problem of what if WM won't recognise any expression of or declaration of independence. (But i'd have thought a vote for independence is at least more direct than a vote for the right to a referendum.) I don't think a plebiscite election would be the same as Catalonia, because there (if I follow correctly) a secession referendum is actually illegal (or at least, somehow unconstitutional). Here, an independence referendum would be legal even if only advisory. But a Holyrood election is both legal and mandatory. I'm not sure it's clear what would be the international community response would be to any of the options now we're in the territory where Scotland has been told that independence is off the table indefinitely, and that the union is no longer consensual. In effect, the 2014 result was won not only on the vow (Devo Max/home rule/federalism etc) and the 'guarantee' of continued EU membership, but the wishful fiction that we are in a consensual union of equal partners. These have all now been trashed.
  2. Off the top of my head what are the main options? 1. Wait until political and public pressure builds, and the UK Govt say, OK then, have your indyref. 2. Wait until 2021, and hope to win a pro indy majority, another mandate for indyref, and hope UK Govt say OK. 3. Hold an indyref anyway, without UK prior 'consent', and hope to win it and hope UK Govt respects it and/or get international recognition. 4. Hold a 'plebiscite election' in 2021 (or even earlier), a mandate for actual independence, and hope UK Govt respects it and/or international recognition. 5. Some kind of declaration if independence... Sorry I don't have time to spell them all out. 6. What others....? They all hope for UK Govt agreement and/or international recognition of one sort of another. Some appear faster than others, some need more stages/mandates than others. Finally, the way independence achieved could end up with a different kind of country afterwards.
  3. I literally just answered that in my post. ("You might say, ...") If you want more detail, maybe check out the author who suggested it? I'd be happy to hear others' alternative suggestions for the way forward.
  4. To answer your questions, in my view, - I am not worried about partition, I don't think it's ever been a serious suggestion, I think it's scaremongering. It is never something suggested by the unionist side except in times of crisis (for them). I mean: if they really believed in giving powers for counties seceding (for example) they would do it - they could do it now. Also, those parts of Scotland voting for Scotland to stay in the Union would not necessarily wish to be separated from the rest of Scotland if Scotland did become independent. I'm not sure that's ever been tested. - The constitutional issue doesn't divide neatly on ethnic lines. People of all sorts of nationalities voted Yes or No. Ethnicities are not that well defined in the first place. Even voluntary movements are hard to predict. If Scotland became independent, there could be a fair few people from south of the border moving to post-indy Scotland just as you could imagine some heading south. But again, that's not on ethnic lines. - I don't think the centre left/centre right thing is the primary driver for independence. In any case, the last election, there were plenty left wing Corbynistas who'd prefer to be part of part of Tory UK than in an independent Scotland. - I'll duck the question of how to achieve independence since it would take too long, the whole thread is about it, the answer changes form week to week. A recent suggestion is aired above on this page, for a start. - The last question is directed at unionists opposing independence? There must be many reasons. Two answers include: (1) people are overly influenced by media from outside Scotland; they trust that British broadcasters like BBC are impartial, when in fact they were set up to promote the cohesion of the UK; and are only impartial (to an extent) within that; and (2) some say that a majority of native born Scots did vote for independence, but were outweighed by those born outside Scotland. In fairness, the proportionate support from the latter group is comparable with what most native Scots traditionally thought (until the last decade), without their self-belief (or patriotism) ever being called into question.
  5. I assume the result would be as if a referendum had just been won, in terms of negotiating for independence, as per Thatcher's famous quote. You might say, but what if the UK govt refuse to negotiate. Then I assume we'd be in a constitutional crisis, where the international community might have to be involved. Which is messy. But it would be quite a different place from the feeling of being trapped into the UK for the rest of (some of) our lifetimes. And, even the threat of it could focus minds.
  6. True, the SNP is not the Yes movement, but I wonder the extent to which between now and then, voters would either be deserting those parties anyway. Also, how big is that set relative to the number of 'lost voters' - who voted for indy on 2014 and SNP in 2015 but not 2017 - and who might not be motivated to vote for a SNP domestic agenda (plus yet another fruitless mandate) but might vote for a (ahem) once in a generation plebiscite election. Need to check also who is eligible to vote in Holyrood elections. Another factor could be the extent to which the outcome was proportional - would the electoral system give SNP and greater or lesser chance of a majority than a straight yes/no?
  7. This looks interesting - wee ginger dug puts the case for a 'plebiscite election' In other words, use Holyrood 2021 as a platform, so if SNP win, it's a direct mandate for independence. It would bypass the need for a referendum, and the government couldn't ignore it, the opposition couldn't boycott it (as if they didn't stand or voters didn't vote, they'd hand the running of Scotland to SNP on a plate). Even the threat of it could bring the British Got to the negotiating table. The worst outcome would be the British Govt insisting on a confirmatory indyref. This assumes SNP win. But they may be as likely to win a straight fight with indy as the prize, as a lame incumbent Govt asking tamely for a 4th mandate for indy, with the risk that the unionist parties and media would make the whole election about education etc. This is all in the context that the Govt has drawn back from saying that even a Holyrood victory would be enough to grant indyref. Another benefit I see is, is that once you've decided Holyrood 2021 is the way to go, then why not call the election early anyway?
  8. After all the Westminster politicking and election campaign, it seems we've reached a point where the time for genuine debate is ripe and there are genuine choices and clear alternatives to what the next steps would be. I mean of course, different kinds of political route and legal routes, (e.g. James Kelly) and even in Craig Murray's case, securing international recognition (and even circumstances of deployment of the British Army). And need for fresh thinking and new ideas from all quarters (beyond slogans and soundbites from 2014-19).
  9. It's the least surprising outcome, that Johnson would say no. Yet, when it actually happens, the feeling hits you, they that really do mean it, they can and will do what they want, not matter what the Scottish political will. the fantasy of the Union is surely over. the fantasy that the UK is some kind of political union of 4 'nations' - a special kind of multi-national state, rather than a unitary state like France or Spain. Scotland never felt more like just a region with a regional government, in country that happens to be called a union. The irony is the fantasy of the union is what swayed many unionists to vote No, that's the fantasy that Johnson is killing off. From now on it seems more like the choice is either indy Scotland, or get used to being trapped as North Britain for the rest of your life.
  10. Well the Smith Commission said, "“It is agreed that nothing in this report prevents Scotland becoming an independent country in the future should the people of Scotland so choose.” So there is no legal or even common sense basis to limit when the next decision in independence be made. And it can't be based on cherry-picked campaign quotes, else we could have a field day with Brown's promises of Devo Max and federalism, not to mention 'vote No to stay in the EU'. Only someone who's desperate or in denial would seriously use 'once in a generation' as anything other than an empty stalling tactic. It's the Tories' weakness that since GE2019, they are not even saying Holyrood 2021 would be a mandate, they must be running scared. It's about time the EU and UN were consulted on when this talk of 'over your dead body' becomes denial of democracy and self-determination, and the conditions for recognition of an indyref2 mandate.
  11. Iran deploys riot police as backlash against government grows
  12. Would not be hard to imagine support for indy now being over 50%. There must be a number of those who were holding out, one more push, for a Corbynist socialist utopia, and passionate pro Remainers voting Lib Dem to stop Brexit, who were not voting SNP in GE but who might now switch if its the only chance of any sort of progressive, European outcome via indy. Add in 16 and 17 year olds and EU citizens denied a GE vote... All to play for....
  13. I can understand that a Scottish nationalist monarchist might be a proud subject of the Kind of Scotland ('he's oors too') (though not so sure about proudly singing GSTK crushing rebellious Scots). But on the colonial front, do you think he wished India and African colonies to remain subject to the rump UK? Or did he see them as subjects of His Majesty the King of Scotland too?
  14. It's an interesting question as to what is divisive or not. Banners about Tory c----s are presumably offensive to indy supporting Conservatives, or anyone moderately right of centre who doesn't fancy Scotland as a socialist utopia (no offence to socialist utopians!). Anything religious or sectarian could be seen to be divisive and have no place in an independence movement. However, I'd have thought that Scottish nationalists naturally have common cause with Irish nationalists as with Welsh or Catalan nationalists, etc. Not sure how you can be for Scottish self-determinism yet deny those seeking northern Ireland breaking away from Westminster? To do so would be no more logical than the George Galloway stance of supporting freedom for Ireland while shackling Scotland to the rest of Britain. At least, to support democratic Irish nationalism and the idea of a right to vote for a united Ireland is not so different from seeking the right to indyref2. I guess it depends on what the exact 'republican' expression was? Those who already say Sturgeon supports the IRA are unlikely to be wooed any time soon.
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