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26 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

 

Not long until we see rioting in the streets…  I imagine we will see energy companies coming under attack.  I’m guessing they are planning for this scenario right now.

This winter is going to be catastrophic for the UK.


 

 

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10 hours ago, thplinth said:

We spend 8 years provoking an invasion of Ukraine. Then when we get it we implement idiotic sanctions which completely fuck our economies and strengthen Russia's. And by we I mean you, the tories. You have done this, it is a mess of your own creation. 

And let's just chuck in the NHS, you have deliberately ruined it and it is now broken. The tories have been in power for a long time and all of this is down to your gross mismanagement and shocking corruption. 

Britain is a broken country. And you cunts broke it, systematically. Blair was just as bent but with different backers. Truss Sunak WTF. And you don't even get a vote on it. I see the tories getting slaughtered at the next GE.

All Starmer has to do is present himself as a safe pair of hands, tory-lite.


or a better idea….   Just not be dependent on a rogue nation by building our own nuclear power stations, extracting and burning our fossil fuel and fracking.

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37 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

 

Economist Mark Blyth has been going on about how inflation is coming about with regards to corporate profits as a big factor, along with supply-side issues, war but the helicopter payments to normal folk seem to be getting the blame or wage demands.

See Mick Lynch making similiar talking points as well.

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2 hours ago, phart said:

So I clicked on that LBC news tweet and then the trend "princeofpegging" came up.

 

I realise that one persons kink is another persons normal but i guess pegging is probably for those that have been blessed by never having piles

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2 hours ago, Malcolm said:

Not long until we see rioting in the streets…  I imagine we will see energy companies coming under attack.  I’m guessing they are planning for this scenario right now.

This winter is going to be catastrophic for the UK.


 

 

Can easily imagine the media slavering about the scummy bastards chucking snowballs at fully geared up riot police already - January is going to be even wanker than the last couple which is an achievement in itself.   

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2 hours ago, phart said:

Economist Mark Blyth has been going on about how inflation is coming about with regards to corporate profits as a big factor, along with supply-side issues, war but the helicopter payments to normal folk seem to be getting the blame or wage demands.

See Mick Lynch making similiar talking points as well.

They seem less keen on having him on the box than previously following him running rings around them.

The economics of the whole thing seem totally mental to me - we're fucked with the energy and food with third world countries absolutely shafted.  JP Morgan though have estimated that the Russian GDP will fall 3% this year and seen that unemployment and interest rates are now back to where they were at the time of invasion.  

One for our resident currency expert but seen they even had to devalue their currency to stay competitive in selling the gas that nobody is supposed to be buying off of them.  Whole thing is an absolute mess to the point I may buy a tinfoil hat and buy into this being purposefully orchestrated.   

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2 hours ago, slasher said:

So after 10 years of near misses the SNP finally get power in North Lanarkshire and just a few months in the leader has to resign over ‘sex pest’ allegations.

Fuck sake! 🙈

The selection process by the SNP used to be ruthless for rooting out those that were not squeaky clean

Maybe they thought homosexuals didn't get up to unwanted sexual advances behaviour

Thats 2 in the space of a month

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41 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

They seem less keen on having him on the box than previously following him running rings around them.

The economics of the whole thing seem totally mental to me - we're fucked with the energy and food with third world countries absolutely shafted.  JP Morgan though have estimated that the Russian GDP will fall 3% this year and seen that unemployment and interest rates are now back to where they were at the time of invasion.  

One for our resident currency expert but seen they even had to devalue their currency to stay competitive in selling the gas that nobody is supposed to be buying off of them.  Whole thing is an absolute mess to the point I may buy a tinfoil hat and buy into this being purposefully orchestrated.   

What is "this" in the context of being orchestrated.

Jp Morgan have said 35% reduction in first quarter of and then 7% reduction in 2nd quarter of 2022 as well just 3 months ago. They're now saying it will be 3.5% in a new prediction.

Yale are saying Russia is being crippled https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

I'd not make much of anything over a single point of data their predictions has swung about madly over the last 3 months.

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52 minutes ago, phart said:

What is "this" in the context of being orchestrated.

Jp Morgan have said 35% reduction in first quarter of and then 7% reduction in 2nd quarter of 2022 as well just 3 months ago. They're now saying it will be 3.5% in a new prediction.

Yale are saying Russia is being crippled https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

I'd not make much of anything over a single point of data their predictions has swung about madly over the last 3 months.

Orchestrated was flippant really but it's getting to the stage this bin fire makes little rational sense.  I can't download that cheers at work but as it's only recently published are the references later that the 5th July as per below?

JP Morgan at the beginning of the month went with the 3.5% prediction which is out of kilter with others but unemployment hasn't moved, interest rates are back where they are and the currency had to be devalued by themselves to remain competitive which is Mylo Mindbender territory:

3.5%

They've also predicted this which would suggest their economy is strong enough that they can cut output without overly damaging themselves whilst inflicting pain on the west - they believe the market is on their side: 

JPMorgan Sees Oil at $380 on Worst-Case Cut by Russia - Bloomberg

If Russia were skint too it would make sense for them to get Nord II back up and running whilst europe is still buying but it would seem they're happy to piss about with output fluctuating from 40% to 20% to 0% whereas we've seen Canada and Germany dancing on the head of a pin getting the generator back in place despite sanctions whilst the west bemoan Putin for waging an energy war.  

They're advising customers on that too and if they get it spectacullarly wrong then their arse is out the window so doubt they'd be going into print on stuff like that unless they're confident in the predictions.  

The whole thing isn't making any sense - how long do we, and more importantly Ukraine, need to wait before the sanctions start showing signs they're working?  

Another thing I don't get is why is Russia are potentially shafting us on the price of crude why don't the Saudi's just let the taps go a bit?  They'll be raking the dosh in but if they're on our side surely they can loosen them off a little for their mates.    

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36 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Orchestrated was flippant really but it's getting to the stage this bin fire makes little rational sense.  I can't download that cheers at work but as it's only recently published are the references later that the 5th July as per below?

JP Morgan at the beginning of the month went with the 3.5% prediction which is out of kilter with others but unemployment hasn't moved, interest rates are back where they are and the currency had to be devalued by themselves to remain competitive which is Mylo Mindbender territory:

3.5%

They've also predicted this which would suggest their economy is strong enough that they can cut output without overly damaging themselves whilst inflicting pain on the west - they believe the market is on their side: 

JPMorgan Sees Oil at $380 on Worst-Case Cut by Russia - Bloomberg

If Russia were skint too it would make sense for them to get Nord II back up and running whilst europe is still buying but it would seem they're happy to piss about with output fluctuating from 40% to 20% to 0% whereas we've seen Canada and Germany dancing on the head of a pin getting the generator back in place despite sanctions whilst the west bemoan Putin for waging an energy war.  

They're advising customers on that too and if they get it spectacullarly wrong then their arse is out the window so doubt they'd be going into print on stuff like that unless they're confident in the predictions.  

The whole thing isn't making any sense - how long do we, and more importantly Ukraine, need to wait before the sanctions start showing signs they're working?  

Another thing I don't get is why is Russia are potentially shafting us on the price of crude why don't the Saudi's just let the taps go a bit?  They'll be raking the dosh in but if they're on our side surely they can loosen them off a little for their mates.    

The Saudis are already making a killing 😉 without the need to increase out put. They might increase output a wee bit as a token gesture, but they are not going to open the taps unless there is something in it for them. Why would they? They are in a very strong bargaining position right now.

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11 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

The Saudis are already making a killing 😉 without the need to increase out put. They might increase output a wee bit as a token gesture, but they are not going to open the taps unless there is something in it for them. Why would they? They are in a very strong bargaining position right now.

Agree totally, excuse the pun, but we're over a barrel really.  On the face of it our plan doesn't seem to be working out massively well.  

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49 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Tavistock closed following Cass ongoing review as unsafe for kids - more holistic approach moving forwards rather than just handing out puberty blockers like sweeties.  

Or not handing out enough

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-tavistock-children-gender-clinic-safety-b2133170.html?amp

The waiting list is unacceptable. 

Fair play to anyone with good intentions working in that area of health. 

The review said it was not able to yet provide recommendations on the use of puberty blockers and feminising or masculinising hormones due to gaps in the evidence.”

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50 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Orchestrated was flippant really but it's getting to the stage this bin fire makes little rational sense.  I can't download that cheers at work but as it's only recently published are the references later that the 5th July as per below?

JP Morgan at the beginning of the month went with the 3.5% prediction which is out of kilter with others but unemployment hasn't moved, interest rates are back where they are and the currency had to be devalued by themselves to remain competitive which is Mylo Mindbender territory:

3.5%

They've also predicted this which would suggest their economy is strong enough that they can cut output without overly damaging themselves whilst inflicting pain on the west - they believe the market is on their side: 

JPMorgan Sees Oil at $380 on Worst-Case Cut by Russia - Bloomberg

If Russia were skint too it would make sense for them to get Nord II back up and running whilst europe is still buying but it would seem they're happy to piss about with output fluctuating from 40% to 20% to 0% whereas we've seen Canada and Germany dancing on the head of a pin getting the generator back in place despite sanctions whilst the west bemoan Putin for waging an energy war.  

They're advising customers on that too and if they get it spectacullarly wrong then their arse is out the window so doubt they'd be going into print on stuff like that unless they're confident in the predictions.  

The whole thing isn't making any sense - how long do we, and more importantly Ukraine, need to wait before the sanctions start showing signs they're working?  

Another thing I don't get is why is Russia are potentially shafting us on the price of crude why don't the Saudi's just let the taps go a bit?  They'll be raking the dosh in but if they're on our side surely they can loosen them off a little for their mates.    

The report is saying that certain values are being artificially inflated using draconian fiscal policies.

Devaluing the currency was to stop a catastrophic balance of payments crisis.

Anyway time will tell.

 

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36 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Or not handing out enough

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-tavistock-children-gender-clinic-safety-b2133170.html?amp

The waiting list is unacceptable. 

Fair play to anyone with good intentions working in that area of health. 

The review said it was not able to yet provide recommendations on the use of puberty blockers and feminising or masculinising hormones due to gaps in the evidence.”

" 'It has become increasingly clear that a single specialist provider model is not a safe or viable long-term option in view of concerns about lack of peer review and the ability to respond to the increasing demand.'

Yeah the report seems to be it's unsafe cause of demand outstripping the ability to service it.

There is consternation about the lack of information regarding clinical trials for drug use in children while acknowledging this happens elsewhere

It is still common that drugs are not
specifically licensed for children because
the trials have only taken place on adults.
This does not preclude their use or make
their use inherently unsafe, particularly if
they are used very commonly in children.
However, where their use is innovative,
patients receiving the drug should ideally do
so under trial conditions.

 

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28 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Agree totally, excuse the pun, but we're over a barrel really.  On the face of it our plan doesn't seem to be working out massively well.  

And then there's also the discussion about whether SA actually has any more capacity that it could just turn on like opening a tap. They claim that they don't, and Daniel Yergin (who phart introduced the TAMB to, many moons ago) seems to agree. But then again if they don't want to increase production, then they would say that, wouldn't they. They are currently producing about 12 billion bpd, which is a lot of the black stuff, and they say the could get up to about 13 billion bpd by 2027ish. Iran could probably sell us an extra billion bpd within a few months, but the west don't want their oil. Must be contaminated or something? 😉

We tend give these oil producing nations very mixed messages, so it's no wonder that they are not that keen to go out of their way to help us out. The West exploited these counties for decades after oil was discovered in the Middle East, and it's only relatively recently they have started to get the upper hand. In some respects anyway. If it goes too far we just go in and bomb the fuk out of them. It's a very delicate balancing act. 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

And then there's also the discussion about whether SA actually has any more capacity that it could just turn on like opening a tap. They claim that they don't, and Daniel Yergin (who phart introduced the TAMB to, many moons ago) seems to agree. But then again if they don't want to increase production, then they would say that, wouldn't they. They are currently producing about 12 billion bpd, which is a lot of the black stuff, and they say the could get up to about 13 billion bpd by 2027ish. Iran could probably sell us an extra billion bpd within a few months, but the west don't want their oil. Must be contaminated or something? 😉

We tend give these oil producing nations very mixed messages, so it's no wonder that they are not that keen to go out of their way to help us out. The West exploited these counties for decades after oil was discovered in the Middle East, and it's only relatively recently they have started to get the upper hand. In some respects anyway. If it goes too far we just go in and bomb the fuk out of them. It's a very delicate balancing act. 

Read this a few weeks ago... 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Saudi-Arabia-Exaggerating-Its-Oil-Production-Potential.html

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1 hour ago, phart said:

I read his book on oil ages ago on the recommendation of the dude who ran the local chippy. They studied history at Edinburgh at the same time as Gordon Brown.

Who was at Edinburgh with Gordon Brown, the guy that wrote the book or the guy that ran the chippy?

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5 minutes ago, phart said:

Guy in the chippy

I was hoping that was the case, a much better story. 
 

A friend of mine was at Exeter University at the same time as Sajid Javid and did the same course.  He cannot remember a single thing about him. 

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