The Brexit Thread

[Bonny79]

16 minutes ago, Barney Rubble said:

Do you seriously think what happened last night has no consequences on the status quo?

We are not getting a referendum any time soon. 

[vanderark14]

Just now, Bonny79 said:

People in Scotland do vote for torys 

The majority dont and hacent for a long long time

[Barney Rubble]

3 minutes ago, Bonny79 said:

We are not getting a referendum any time soon. 

That's not what I asked Bonny.

Do you seriously think what happened last night has no consequences on the status quo?

[ParisInAKilt]

1 minute ago, Barney Rubble said:

That's not what I asked Bonny.

Do you seriously think what happened last night has no consequences on the status quo?

Another Indy referendum appears inevitable. 

Not sure how it will go though.

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Another Indy referendum appears inevitable. 

Not sure how it will go though.

When it happens, Yes will win. 

I'm certain of that because it will only happen when the result is inevitable.

[hampden_loon2878]

43 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Another Indy referendum appears inevitable. 

Not sure how it will go though.

If Bojo is clever he will make it soon, while he still has the brexiteers on side, a referendum held in the next few months would have no winning 53% majority. I have stated all along, sturgeon needs to hold on as long as possible, timing is everything 

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

When it happens, Yes will win. 

I'm certain of that because it will only happen when the result is inevitable.

 

1 hour ago, aaid said:

When it happens, Yes will win. 

I'm certain of that because it will only happen when the result is inevitable.

Alternatively - the longer the "now is not the time" goes on and that belief that Independence will ever happen wanes - apathy will set in

[Caledonian Craig]

7 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

Alternatively - the longer the "now is not the time" goes on and that belief that Independence will ever happen wanes - apathy will set in

It is a very difficult one.

I am itching for Indy Ref2 NOW but do we want to dive in now when polls still barely have Yes over 50%? We will only get one more shot at this so we have to go when Yes is pretty much assured. Showing at around 50% in polls isn't that moment.

However, I do get what you are saying about apathy and also weakness it displays but the Scottish Government's hands are firmly tied here. I would say though, that, if the SNP win the 2021 Scottish Elections (their fourth mandate) they have to say enough is enough and if IndyRef2 is not granted by Westminster then they should hold a vote regardless and see where that takes them.

[aaid]

9 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

Alternatively - the longer the "now is not the time" goes on and that belief that Independence will ever happen wanes - apathy will set in

That is another way of looking at it but I don't think this will go on for much longer, maybe 18 months or so at the most.  I don't see apathy setting in as I see the pressure will be building over the next few months.

I see that UNISON have today announced support for IndyRef2.

Even the staunchest Unionist knows that doing nothing other than constantly saying no is not a strategy that will work.

[TDYER63]

54 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

If Bojo is clever he will make it soon, while he still has the brexiteers on side, a referendum held in the next few months would have no winning 53% majority. I have stated all along, sturgeon needs to hold on as long as possible, timing is everything 

I cannot see him agreeing in the next few months, he has already said No. Why would he change his mind ? 

[thplinth]

With the SNP as they are I would abstain or vote No at indyref2. Hand on heart NS has killed it for me. I cannot empower her in a newly independent Scotland. Unless something fundamentally changes there I for one am done. Take out independence and I utterly despise the SNP as a party.

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

I cannot see him agreeing in the next few months, he has already said No. Why would he change his mind ? 

Because they(unionists) would win as it stands

[Bonny79]

4 hours ago, Barney Rubble said:

That's not what I asked Bonny.

Do you seriously think what happened last night has no consequences on the status quo?

Everything is relevant yes

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, thplinth said:

With the SNP as they are I would abstain or vote No at indyref2. Hand on heart NS has killed it for me. I cannot empower her in a newly independent Scotland. Unless something fundamentally changes there I for one am done. Take out independence and I utterly despise the SNP as a party.

you and like minded folk hold the key to independence, my mother fits into that bracket also, previous yes voters who now thinks they would vote no. Whether you want to admit this or not, the snp are very good strategists, they understand there are portions of yes voters like yourself, i believe(hope to god am right) when it comes to voting folk like yerself,  knowing that they hold the balance of power will hopefully see past sturgeon/EU an vote for self determination 

[ParisInAKilt]

5 hours ago, aaid said:

When it happens, Yes will win. 

I'm certain of that because it will only happen when the result is inevitable.

 

4 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

If Bojo is clever he will make it soon, while he still has the brexiteers on side, a referendum held in the next few months would have no winning 53% majority. I have stated all along, sturgeon needs to hold on as long as possible, timing is everything 

Do yous think the polls will ever get to 60%? Almost hard to ever imagine it. 

Hard to get the timing right when it’s in part controlled by another party. 

[hampden_loon2878]

8 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

 

Do yous think the polls will ever get to 60%? Almost hard to ever imagine it. 

Hard to get the timing right when it’s in part controlled by another party. 

Not in the next 10 years will polls show 60%, for indy, if the polls go to 55% yes before the next holyrood election it will be down to boris ballsing up or Coronavirus wiping out all the pensioners 😳 any referendum held in the next 5 years is going to be tight

[ParisInAKilt]

3 hours ago, thplinth said:

With the SNP as they are I would abstain or vote No at indyref2. Hand on heart NS has killed it for me. I cannot empower her in a newly independent Scotland. Unless something fundamentally changes there I for one am done. Take out independence and I utterly despise the SNP as a party.

I think that fundamental change will only come with independence

[ParisInAKilt]

1 minute ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Not in the next 10 years will polls show 60%, for indy, if the polls go to 55% yes before the next holyrood election it will be down to boris ballsing up or Coronavirus wiping out all the pensioners 😳 any referendum held in the next 5 years is going to be tight

Do you think the SNP need to say for the next Holyrood election, a vote for us is a vote for another referendum? Independence should be front and centre now. 

[aaid]

58 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

 

Do yous think the polls will ever get to 60%? Almost hard to ever imagine it. 

Hard to get the timing right when it’s in part controlled by another party. 

People fixate on this magical figure of 60% as if somehow it means something.  It's irrelevant.  

What is important is what do you have to do to get to the point where opinion polling reflects support for independence of that level.   You don't just wake up one morning and go, oh look the polls are suddenly at 60% now.

You get there by making and winning the argument and convincing people one by one.  You don't need a referendum to be able to do that although it probably needs central support and resources but that's a mainly a grass roots exercise.  You can do that while you ramp up the political pressure on Westminster.  While the two things are connected they are very different strands of activities.

As important as increasing support for independence is getting support from people who are not necessarily supportive of it but recognise that either it is right to ask the question again or at least that it should be the decision of the Scottish Parliament, nor Westminster.   That's the point when it becomes politically impossible to block one.

[ParisInAKilt]

5 minutes ago, aaid said:

People fixate on this magical figure of 60% as if somehow it means something.  It's irrelevant.  

What is important is what do you have to do to get to the point where opinion polling reflects support for independence of that level.   You don't just wake up one morning and go, oh look the polls are suddenly at 60% now.

You get there by making and winning the argument and convincing people one by one.  You don't need a referendum to be able to do that although it probably needs central support and resources but that's a mainly a grass roots exercise.  You can do that while you ramp up the political pressure on Westminster.  While the two things are connected they are very different strands of activities.

As important as increasing support for independence is getting support from people who are not necessarily supportive of it but recognise that either it is right to ask the question again or at least that it should be the decision of the Scottish Parliament, nor Westminster.   That's the point when it becomes politically impossible to block one.

I think unless there’s an active referendum and campaigning I’d expect most people to forget about independence and just get on with things.

If the Tories have been able to block a referendum up to now, is there anything that can happen that will change that? 

[WCTA]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

People fixate on this magical figure of 60% as if somehow it means something.  It's irrelevant.  

What is important is what do you have to do to get to the point where opinion polling reflects support for independence of that level.   You don't just wake up one morning and go, oh look the polls are suddenly at 60% now.

You get there by making and winning the argument and convincing people one by one.  You don't need a referendum to be able to do that although it probably needs central support and resources but that's a mainly a grass roots exercise.  You can do that while you ramp up the political pressure on Westminster.  While the two things are connected they are very different strands of activities.

As important as increasing support for independence is getting support from people who are not necessarily supportive of it but recognise that either it is right to ask the question again or at least that it should be the decision of the Scottish Parliament, nor Westminster.   That's the point when it becomes politically impossible to block one.

Braw post. 

[Jim Beem]

6 hours ago, thplinth said:

With the SNP as they are I would abstain or vote No at indyref2. Hand on heart NS has killed it for me. I cannot empower her in a newly independent Scotland. Unless something fundamentally changes there I for one am done. Take out independence and I utterly despise the SNP as a party.

Normally agree with most of your posts, especially the angry stuff 😂  saying that, I cant get my head around your train of thought here. I dont really care for the SNP, or any other party for that matter but would always vote Yes. Its not even a political thing. For me, independence is normal. This weird union, abortion of an agreement is as abnormal as it gets. Not being independent, for me, is a flat out global embarrassment

. 

[Ally Bongo]

2 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

If the Tories have been able to block a referendum up to now, is there anything that can happen that will change that? 

A damaging Brexit affecting Scotland and it's people

After the dust died down and in the cold light of the next day this was always going to be the key to winning Independence

The problem is when, not if, that happens

I wonder if the SNP are gambling on serious negative Brexit impact before the Scottish Parliamentary elections and running on a mandate of Independence and not a referendum

With the D'Hondt system that would be quite a gamble 

[kumnio]

8 hours ago, thplinth said:

With the SNP as they are I would abstain or vote No at indyref2. Hand on heart NS has killed it for me. I cannot empower her in a newly independent Scotland. Unless something fundamentally changes there I for one am done. Take out independence and I utterly despise the SNP as a party.

Simple question, will you vote Yes or really vote No at the next referendum, because, sorry, I don't believe you. The only way, the absolute only way to get rid of the SNP is independence. 

Theres a fair bit of the SNP that Im not happy with, but I will always vote for them*, and always vote Yes. *unless something incredibly drastic happens

Edited February 2, 2020 by kumnio

[kumnio]

4 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Do you think the SNP need to say for the next Holyrood election, a vote for us is a vote for another referendum? Independence should be front and centre now. 

I don't believe they need to say that, its an absolute given what the SNPs goal is.

If you vote Labour wanting a better Scotland, you're a fool, if you vote Lib Dem wanting the same, well whats the point.