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aaid

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Everything posted by aaid

  1. Someone I know whose credentials are pretty spot on seems to know some of them and there's been some commentary on her Facebook page about it. There doesn't seem to be any doubt they are Indy supporters, there's no suggestion it's a false flag. From what they are saying, how it's been reported isn't reflective of what they were doing, but how exactly did they think this would play out? That might not be right or fair but it's where we are right now. A free hit for the Unionists - well done guys.
  2. They seem to be pretty genuine Indy supporters but its an incredibly stupid thing to do - what did they think the reaction would be? Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
  3. From WhatScotlandThinks - has all polls by all pollsters so comparing one against another doesn't really make any sense, don't get too hung up about the spikes This is from the Brexit Referendum until now, The trend is pretty obvious though. April 2019 is when it starts to creep up.
  4. I haven't seen the data tables for this poll yet - they don't appear to been released. Previous one have shown the same trends, the older you are, the more likely you are to vote No, the younger you are the more you're likely to vote Yes. There's a bit of a caveat to that, everyone thinks that the 16/17 years olds are a huge Indy group, that's true to an extent - its not a massive cohort TBH only around 100,000 or so, 2.5% of the electorate. While that does show a tendency to be pro-Indy, it's the 18-24 year olds who are the real sweet spot. Of course the problem also is, this is the group that is traditionally least likely to actually get out and vote. I think that there's been a shift across all age groups. If I look at the data from the last panelbase poll done about 2-3 weeks ago - which also showed the 44/46 result - I doubt there is much of a difference, if any. Panelbase break down to three age groups only - other polling companies have a finer granularity. The the breakdown is as follows (Yes/No). Male: 16-34 (68/32), 35-55 (66/34), 55+ (43/57) Female: 16-34 (71/29), 35-55 (47/53), 55+ (39/61) So basically older women are a lot less likely to vote Yes than pretty much any other section of the population. Other highlights from that data. 2019 voting splits pretty much as you'd expect, ie. SNP voters virtually all in favour, Tory/Lib Dems virtually all against, exception to that - and major problem for them - is that Labour voters was showing as 43/57, which makes their recent decision to go full pelt on opposing a referendum look odd to say the least.
  5. I bow to Professor Curtice and think that analysis is likely spot on particularly the part about COVID demonstrating that the devolved administration can "step up to the plate", so the idea that Scotland can't govern itself starts to fall away for some people. I get the general sense that people think Scotland has handled the whole crisis on the whole better than England has, that may or may not be the case but it's certainly the perception, I get. I also detect a bit a perception that Scotland could have done even better if it were Independent, and this whole nonsense over quarantine is a great example of that. Lets face it, he only real thing the UKG has done that has benefited Scotland has been the Furlough scheme and various other financial support. However, everyone knows that it's not the "broad shoulders of the U.K." but rather the Treasury is going out and borrowing shitloads of money to fund it - so that argument starts to look a bit more hollow I think it definitely helps that - whatever some might think about her - in Nicola Sturgeon you have someone who has demonstrated genuine leadership, who stands up every day, tells it as it is, is completely on top of her brief - her period as Health Secretary obviously helps that - and is regularly scrutinised. The comparison with Boris Johnson couldn't be starker. She's built up a lot of personal credit in the bank in the last few months, particularly with people who would not be natural SNP or Indy supporters. That means that when we get out of this and get going again, those people will listen to her when they previously might have just switched off. They may not initially agree with her but getting people to engage with the arguments is the first step to convincing them to change their minds.
  6. Dont look at individual polls from different polling companies and try and use those as some sort of comparison, it's apples and oranges. Also don't look at individual "key moments" as being significant, they're not - at least in this context. Look at the longer term trends for all polls, Prof Curtice's website, WhatScotlandThinks has all this. Remember there is generally a margin of error of 3% in opinion polls. For about four years from the referendum, support remain generally consistent at the levels in the referendum, there were some outliers and some bouncing around but the general trend was flat. There was a significant spike immediately after the Brexit referendum in 2016, but that fell back straight away. As you point out, the reason why it fell back is a bit more straight forwards though, a lot of No voters who were shocked at the Brexit result initially switched but then I common with virtually all Remain voters went into denial about the likelihood of Brexit ever actually happening. Then some point around late 2018, early 2019, it started to move. Just a point every couple of months and it didn't become apparent what was happening at first until the gap started to really narrow and get to the point where it was effectively 50/50. It kept going up but only by a point or maybe two to where went are now. Yes has probably put on 9-10 points in the last 18 months or so, which is impressive and encouraging but it slow and steady growth, not a surge. Surges have the tendency to fall back, slow and steady doesn't
  7. See when you put something in these "" characters, it means that it's something someone else said. It's called a quotation.
  8. In my experience, the views of English people on Scotland - or more specifically, Scottish Independence - follow a spectrum. On one side there is the whole "You fakkin Jocks wouldn't be able to do it without us bailing you out" to - more recently - "go for it and if it happens I'm moving there" Mostly though its either a bit of a disbelief that anyone wouldn't want to be part of the UK, "well if you want to do it then that's up to you" or, most frequently, sheer disinterest. Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of people would be very upset if the Union was dissolved but I think that's more to do with the symbolism of that rather than what it would actually mean in practice. There was a fair bit of interest in 2014 for obvious reasons which died away pretty quickly afterwards and is only really picking up again recently.
  9. Never saw much of what - a lack of interest in Northern Ireland?
  10. While COVID is no doubt driving this current little increase, it is only continuing a trend which has been going on for about 18 months now of slow and steady increase. It's pretty obvious that this isn't being driven by a change in demographics, ie - being blunt - older people who voted No, dying and being replaced on the register by younger people who didn't have a vote in 2014. There will be an element of that but the big shift is in 2014 No voters changing their minds, some people going the other way but in much smaller numbers. Actually it would be interesting to see if that has dropped since the Brexit referendum, ie, some Yes voters, who previously said they'd vote No, have changed their minds back again, regardless I doubt that's significant. Everyone of those No voters who have shifted will have their own "Journey to Yes" but I suspect that the common theme will be an increasing frustration at how the UK Government has behaved since 2014 and an acceptance that a better way is possible. So while COVID - or more accurately the differences between how the two governments have been handling it - and a growing perception that the Scottish Government has been hampered by the UKG - not sure myself how accurate that is, particularly at the start of the pandemic - may be why people have shifted, I suspect that was the final straw built on everything that's gone before it and so in that case, I don't think people will change their minds.
  11. He is increasingly coming across like that. The problem is that while his base will lap it up, it drives away "floating voters".
  12. My own impressions based on living in England for over 30 years. For pretty obvious historical, cultural, political and familial reasons there's a lot of focus on what goes on in Northern Ireland in Scotland. You just don't see that in England. People are generally disinterested, especially after the GFA and the IRA stopped letting bombs off. Before, that people just thought it was full of mad terrorists.
  13. Jackson Carlaw coming across like a very shouty and angry man on Sunday Politics - not a good look.
  14. Another 54/46 poll out today - this support is sticking. Voting intentions for SNP off the scale as well- 55% HR constituencies, 50% HR list, approval ratings on COVID Nicola Sturgeon +60, Boris Johnson -39.
  15. I know what you're saying but you live in England, you know that the vast majority of English folk couldn't care less about Nirthern Ireland, they barely care about Scotland.
  16. Only my impression but people who were previously pretty neutral about him are being pretty critical, others who would've been supportive in the past are pretty quiet. I think that a lot of pro-Brexit people are sticking with him for the time being as they think he''ll deliver what they want - and probably more importantly for fear that if he's replaced, it might be by someone who might not. If he doesn't deliver what they want, they'll turn on him. Even if he does deliver what they want, they'll have no need for him anymore and I suspect that support will ebb away.
  17. People all over the UK have very entrenched political positions. In Scotland its primarily about Independence, in England its more about Brexit, then you have the usual party tribalism. So some people aren't going to change their views regardless of what he says - sometimes I think that he could take a dump on the despatch box at PMQs and some people would applaud him for it. I genuinely think though that the shine is going off him very quickly in England - in Scotland, lets face it, even the Tories don't like him - and that's certainly the impression I get, although for obvious reasons, my usual network has been much reduced in recent months. Problem is of course that the Tories aren't going anywhere for the next 4 years or so, that doesn't mean he'll still be the PM then though.
  18. Fair point - I guess the alternative is that if there's no tame presenters, then he won't do any interviews at all. At least this way people get their own opportunity to make their own minds up about what he's saying - as you have done.
  19. LBC to be fair do have a fairly large spread of political views amongst their presenters. Nick Ferrari is pretty well known as being a supporter of the Tories - which is why Johnson would agree to go on his show - as is Ian Dale. Following him though is James O'Brien who could hardly be any more different as is Sheila Fogerty, and then Eddie Mair, who generally gives everyone a hard time. I don't tend to listen to it that much as I generally don't like phone-in style format but whenever I do listen its pretty decent in terms of its output. NIght and day from other talk-radio style stations which just try to be outrageous and controversial to attract listeners. The BBC could learn a lot from them.
  20. On one level, you have two people - seemingly at odds with each other - both stating the same thing. The inference here is that they are the same, On another level - and how I read it - you have a juxtaposition, where two people are stating the same fact but the inference is that one person is supporting that position, the other is opposing it.. Its a common device in cartoons, to have a more subtle subtext that subverts the more obvious meaning
  21. No, you didn't you, you gave some waffle about "oh it depends on lots of circumstances", which is of course true as every kid is different but when you are talking in the general sense, isn't relevant. I'll try and make it even simpler for you - do you agree with this. A black kid and white kid, given the same basic upbringing, quality of parenting, access to education, relative prosperity, etc., etc, will have the same general life prospects as each other but with one crucial difference. The white kid won't suffer from any discrimination* because of his colour, whereas the black kid will be discriminated against and the level of that will have negative impacts on his life prospects. *and don't give me any crap about affirmative action
  22. Don't duck the question - which kid, given the same basic start in life and the same basic upbringing would be more likely to have better outcomes.
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