Ukraine

[phart]

10 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

I think the general public dont appreciate how close we are to a nuclear war. Putins backed into a corner here. The future sanctions on russia will leave them a much weaker nation in the future and i doubt putin is willing to accept that.

That's a depressing thought.

Made worse by the fact over the weekend I watched and read a lot of testimony around all the nuclear tests done in the late 40's early 50's and how it fucked up a lot of military people used as guinea pigs around it. Saw a clip somewhere randomly about it and ended up down a rabbit hole.

We also had the false alarm crisis as well in 1983 and a couple of other close calls

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/missileers/falsealarms.html

[mccaughey85]

14 minutes ago, phart said:

That's a depressing thought.

Made worse by the fact over the weekend I watched and read a lot of testimony around all the nuclear tests done in the late 40's early 50's and how it fucked up a lot of military people used as guinea pigs around it. Saw a clip somewhere randomly about it and ended up down a rabbit hole.

We also had the false alarm crisis as well in 1983 and a couple of other close calls

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/missileers/falsealarms.html

Yeh i have been looking into the whole nuclear winter scenario. It would cause the crops to fail and cause global starvation which would be the big killer rather than the actual bombs themselves. Theres alot of large and small bunkers built across the globe in preparation for these events and i genuinely think its becoming a possibility.

Think i might start stockpiling tins of tomato soup and pasta lol. 

[ThistleWhistle]

I'm going see if I can sneak into that bunker in Norway I think it is that has the seed of every plant and tree in storage so it can grow everything again if the world goes tits up.  I'll destroy the sprouts and brocolli though for the benefits of mankind.  

Thought this was an interesting opinion peice:

The human shield accusation has actually become an increasingly common defence when states act immorally. As we show in our recent book on human shields, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Israel, Sri Lanka, and India are just some of the states that have deployed the argument to justify high civilian casualties in recent years. This is partly because legally it appears to be such a useful get-out clause. The legal provision within international law pertaining to human shields states that “the presence or movements of the civilian population or individual civilians shall not be used to render certain points or areas immune from military operations, in particular in attempts to shield military objectives from attacks or to shield, favour or impede military operations”. According to international law, using human shields constitutes a war crime, while the party responsible for the death of human shields is not the one killing them – if the attack is proportionate – but instead, the one deploying them. Although the article is heavily critical of Russian tactics to the point it is myopic in its analysis what it omits to say is that under current arrangements that they are obviously so keen to change is the Russians can argue it is the Ukrainians who broke the law in using civilian cover for their operation. Our own morality is questionable too given we've championed, celebrated and armed the civilian population with as many anti-tank guns and tampons they can get their hands on surely knowing the current rules/ loophole on human shields. That then leads to the unenviable position that we either give the Russian’s their day in court where possibly they get away with it through previous precedents set or; we judge them guilty before any hearing can take place and risk rendering the security council obsolete - nae a great choice either side of the coin.

Edited April 5, 2022 by ThistleWhistle
cut n paste special

[thplinth]

Do people think Russia is losing? I don't see any evidence for that at all.

The western media is so bad... You are literally far better off not even looking at any of it. At least then you just don't know as opposed to having your head filled with lies.

The least worst outcome at this point is that Russia completes the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, Ukraine becomes neutral and the Russian ethnic parts of it revert back to Russia using referendums similar to Crimea if that is what they want. (If it us good enough for us to become independent it must surely be good enough for them to rejoin Russia.)

Ukrainians are getting totally used and put in the meat grinder. The folk running this don't give a fuck about ordinary people and their suffering. It is so obvious. And the media work hand in glove with them. 

 

[ThistleWhistle]

13 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Do people think Russia is losing? I don't see any evidence for that at all.

The western media is so bad... You are literally far better off not even looking at any of it. At least then you just don't know as opposed to having your head filled with lies.

The least worst outcome at this point is that Russia completes the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, Ukraine becomes neutral and the Russian ethnic parts of it revert back to Russia using referendums similar to Crimea if that is what they want. (If it us good enough for us to become independent it must surely be good enough for them to rejoin Russia.)

Ukrainians are getting totally used and put in the meat grinder. The folk running this don't give a fuck about ordinary people and their suffering. It is so obvious. And the media work hand in glove with them. 

 

It's pretty obvious from this who China thinks is winning and losing:

US rakes in flurry of profits in time of war - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn

I get that it is heavily biased state controlled media but it does beg the question if Ukraine were suddenly so keen to accept some sort of neutrality fudge why the US and the West by extension continued instead to egg them on to continue fighting.  There’s a pretty obvious conflict of interest in play here and for me Ukraine are getting shafted. 

[aaid]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60981238

[thplinth]

19 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

It's pretty obvious from this who China thinks is winning and losing:

US rakes in flurry of profits in time of war - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn

I get that it is heavily biased state controlled media but it does beg the question if Ukraine were suddenly so keen to accept some sort of neutrality fudge why the US and the West by extension continued instead to egg them on to continue fighting.  There’s a pretty obvious conflict of interest in play here and for me Ukraine are getting shafted. 

Every now and then a general or politician let's slip that they believe it would be possible to fight a limited nuclear in Europe... They see themselves as distant to it and we are just expendable pieces on their chessboard.

Listened to a Russian ex military analyst talking about how Americans have not faced any real existential threat at home in their history. They feel untouchable. (But boy are they not.) 

Russians on the other hand have faced grave existential threats throughout their history. (Look up the military and civilian  casualties in WWII. It was Russia who really broke the Nazis back.)

So if push comes to shove they are not going to back down, quite the opposite. It is a very stupid game being played here.

Russia will pivot to Asia and China will buy as much of their Oil and Gas as they can get. And at at over 100 a barrel now they are raking it in. How's everyone's energy bills doing?

[thplinth]

It is not just Ukrainians getting used. Everyone in Europe is getting used. The ramifications of all of this are huge and yet to be played out.  

I think we are possibly going to get some serious inflation at this point and other economic problems. I think we will find that the reality is we needed Russia more than they needed us.

[Malcolm]

19 hours ago, thplinth said:

It is not just Ukrainians getting used. Everyone in Europe is getting used. The ramifications of all of this are huge and yet to be played out.  

I think we are possibly going to get some serious inflation at this point and other economic problems. I think we will find that the reality is we needed Russia more than they needed us.

i agree, things are going to get very uncomfortable here.  Mass poverty, crime and a potential return to a 70s era Britain or worse with hunger and possibly riots.  However, Russia will be worse with a return to Cold War type poverty…. Sanctions for ever more.

this is not going to be limited to Ukraine.  If Russia meets its objectives, what then? Sanctions remain… poverty on both sides.

World war is a real possibility here.

 

[TDYER63]

I was speaking to a corporate customer in agri yesterday, was talking about the cost of fuel and he was saying the fuel is just the tip of the iceberg,  and things are going to get very painful. Fertiliser has gone from £ 275 a tonne a year ago to £900 a tonne. Miling wheat used for bread has doubled in a year and milk is likely to double in price soon too.
Bread and milk are staple items , it will literally be putting millions of people on the breadline,  or into real poverty. 

Meanwhile the property market is off the scale. People paying 20-30 % over the value of a house to secure it. Not related to Ukraine of course but this general combination of high prices is going to end up in disaster. 
 

 

[Toepoke]

On 4/5/2022 at 9:00 AM, phart said:

That's a depressing thought.

Made worse by the fact over the weekend I watched and read a lot of testimony around all the nuclear tests done in the late 40's early 50's and how it fucked up a lot of military people used as guinea pigs around it. Saw a clip somewhere randomly about it and ended up down a rabbit hole.

We also had the false alarm crisis as well in 1983 and a couple of other close calls

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/missileers/falsealarms.html

No longer on iplayer but this is a fantastic watch, the section on Christmas Island is absolutely terrifying...

 

[ThistleWhistle]

2 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

I was speaking to a corporate customer in agri yesterday, was talking about the cost of fuel and he was saying the fuel is just the tip of the iceberg,  and things are going to get very painful. Fertiliser has gone from £ 275 a tonne a year ago to £900 a tonne. Miling wheat used for bread has doubled in a year and milk is likely to double in price soon too.
Bread and milk are staple items , it will literally be putting millions of people on the breadline,  or into real poverty. 

Meanwhile the property market is off the scale. People paying 20-30 % over the value of a house to secure it. Not related to Ukraine of course but this general combination of high prices is going to end up in disaster. 
 

 

Heard someone from NFU on radio 4 too saying a number of dairy farmers are calling it quits if supermarkets don't increase the prices in line with what is happening because they can't absorb what is happening.  Said a number had already flogged off their dairy herd in advance so supply could be another issue to add on top.  

We've been in our house for 10 years from new build and houses in the steeet are going for 30% over what we paid - when this goes 'pop' it'll be an absolute disaster for loads of folk.  We thought of moving too but defo not now - mortgaged up to the eyeballs with an impending economic depression fuck that! 

[TDYER63]

38 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Heard someone from NFU on radio 4 too saying a number of dairy farmers are calling it quits if supermarkets don't increase the prices in line with what is happening because they can't absorb what is happening.  Said a number had already flogged off their dairy herd in advance so supply could be another issue to add on top.  

We've been in our house for 10 years from new build and houses in the steeet are going for 30% over what we paid - when this goes 'pop' it'll be an absolute disaster for loads of folk.  We thought of moving too but defo not now - mortgaged up to the eyeballs with an impending economic depression fuck that! 

That is bad news for the farmers, the supermarkets will not get away with it for much longer I wouldn’t think . I get Hello Fresh delivered for 4 meals a week   it is starting to look like a very cost effective way to eat.

Dont want to derail the thread ( though I already have..) but my brother put in offers for 4 flats recently before he got one and he only got that as the top bid pulled out and he was next. Everything is going to closing dates. My daughter has put in offers of 20% over the home valuation report for 2 different houses in the last 2 weeks. Got none. One of them was a 3 bed mid terraced house in Barrhead. 20 offers went in , think the sellers got  over £300k for it on a valuation of £245k . Crazy,  and as you say,  will end up in disaster. 

[thplinth]

I keep an eye on property for sale in certain areas and there has been lack of properties coming on the market for a while. It started with covid and not sure how long it will take to get back to normal. I'd say there are about a quarter the amount of properties for sale than pre pandemic in the couple of spots I keep an eye on. Fair enough during lockdown but I thought there would have been a flood of properties coming on by now.

Also normally you'd buy a new car and expect to lose a chunk in depreciation just driving it out the dealership (25% say) but now they are selling for more than you paid for it (by about 25% it seems). Microchip shortages and now some key auto component supplier in Ukraine having problems for obvious reasons.

Don't even get me started on negative interest rates... WTF.

The world has gone mad. 

[Malcolm]

4 hours ago, thplinth said:

I keep an eye on property for sale in certain areas and there has been lack of properties coming on the market for a while. It started with covid and not sure how long it will take to get back to normal. I'd say there are about a quarter the amount of properties for sale than pre pandemic in the couple of spots I keep an eye on. Fair enough during lockdown but I thought there would have been a flood of properties coming on by now.

Also normally you'd buy a new car and expect to lose a chunk in depreciation just driving it out the dealership (25% say) but now they are selling for more than you paid for it (by about 25% it seems). Microchip shortages and now some key auto component supplier in Ukraine having problems for obvious reasons.

Don't even get me started on negative interest rates... WTF.

The world has gone mad. 

there are not going to negative interest rates, they will be through the roof.  The difference this time is a generation are used to ultra low rates…. Keys being handed back to lender on the card.

[Malcolm]

think we are headed to world war three now.  Imagine we will be in by the summer.  It will be up to Russia if this becomes nuclear.

[ThistleWhistle]

 

[ThistleWhistle]

On 4/6/2022 at 7:13 PM, Malcolm said:

think we are headed to world war three now.  Imagine we will be in by the summer.  It will be up to Russia if this becomes nuclear.

Early look at the runners and riders:

UN suspends Russia from human rights body: How your country voted | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

[Malcolm]

1 hour ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Early look at the runners and riders:

UN suspends Russia from human rights body: How your country voted | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

its all shaping up for war.  Russia becoming increasingly isolated and resorting to ethnic cleansing…. Don’t see how the world will watch this unfold.

im all for giving Ukraine the Migs from Poland now, and any level of weapon that is used against thrm.

[vanderark14]

5 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

its all shaping up for war.  Russia becoming increasingly isolated and resorting to ethnic cleansing…. Don’t see how the world will watch this unfold.

im all for giving Ukraine the Migs from Poland now, and any level of weapon that is used against thrm.

You've used terms like ethnic cleansing and genocide

I've not been keeping up with what's happing but is what you are saying accurate? If so, where did you read about this.

[King Of Paisley]

2 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

You've used terms like ethnic cleansing and genocide

I've not been keeping up with what's happing but is what you are saying accurate? If so, where did you read about this.

I think he is referring to the acts of genocide in Bucha. Not seen anything about ethnic cleansing though. 

[ThistleWhistle]

24 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

You've used terms like ethnic cleansing and genocide

I've not been keeping up with what's happing but is what you are saying accurate? If so, where did you read about this.

Read this a couple of days back and thought it was interesting:

Ukraine: As Russia faces ‘genocide’ charge, experts urge caution | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

[Malcolm]

If you have twitter you will no doubt see the videos. Unless this is staged, it is clear that civilians are being targeted.  Women and kids murdered, summary execution of civilians with hands tied behind their backs.  It’s disgusting - I hope putin gets what’s coming to him.

[Squirrelhumper]

5 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

If you have twitter you will no doubt see the videos. Unless this is staged, it is clear that civilians are being targeted.  Women and kids murdered, summary execution of civilians with hands tied behind their backs.  It’s disgusting - I hope putin gets what’s coming to him.

Yet you still have folk on here sticking up or Putin and his bullshit. 

Sky literally showed a Russian spokesman a woman getting blown to pieces by a russian tank. He then denied it happened. Unreal. That's the shite you are up against. These same folk backing Putin would have been the same folk it the 40s in the UK sticking up for Hitler and in the 90s denying the genocide in Bosnia.

Russia is a backwards cesspit. The sooner their population wakes up to that reality the better.

[ger intae them]

I don’t really think anyone would ‘stick up’ for Putin. What some folk are saying is think about things a bit before believing all that you are fed.

putin put his tanks in Ukraine, that is fact & obviously wrong….. but who knows what the truth is in an a multitude of alleged atrocities? Knee jerk reactions is what will lead to WWIII.