Coronavirus

[ParisInAKilt]

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

By the middle of April we should have a better idea whether it is going to cross the tipping into a full blown pandemic or not.

I'm not sure that helps you decide whether to book flights or not. I guess there are many other variables which will affect that decision.

 

That’s helpful, sounds like a good idea to hold off booking anything just now and see what happens over the next month 

[Fairbairn]

1 minute ago, Orraloon said:

I hope you were wearing a mask when you were typing that? I don't want to have to put you on ignore.

There's plenty more reasons to put me on ignore than the Coronavirus!

[Duncan Blackheart]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thistlerugbypod/status/1234850020127629317
 

[phart]

Starting to look worse than I originally thought.

Seems I was wrong.

To cover for that i'm going to also make an observation that will hopefully overshadow my wrongness.

Reading about all the funding suddenly being thrown at it it's worth noting that something like 9000 children under the age of 5 die each day from starvation or lack of political will depending how you view the context, yet 3000 deaths worldwide in 2 months is a huge concern. A great example of the self preservation mechanism in the human race.

[86glebestreet]

I am in Sydney , pasta , rice and toilet rolls emptied off the shelf’s in some shops 

[ParisInAKilt]

6 minutes ago, 86glebestreet said:

I am in Sydney , pasta , rice and toilet rolls emptied off the shelf’s in some shops 

Sister is in Townsville and just said the same thing. I’m in Wagga just now so probably same thing going on here 

[86glebestreet]

9 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Sister is in Townsville and just said the same thing. I’m in Wagga just now so probably same thing going on here 

Probably see toilet rolls on eBay soon.😄

[ParisInAKilt]

Just now, 86glebestreet said:

Probably see toilet rolls on eBay soon.😄

Good idea, I’ll steal them from work and try and sell them  

[Huddersfield]

46 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Has anyone explained how and why all these viruses keep coming from China/The Far East ?

Bird Flu, Swine Flu, SARS and now Corona 

I’m no expert by any means but historically a lot of pandemic diseases start there. The Black Death is generally thought to have originated in China. I’m sure some of the dietary & hygiene habits of certain communities don’t help but I wonder if there’s other factors at play as well?

[Grim Jim]

2 new cases in Scotland today.

[Squirrelhumper]

27 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

2 new cases in Scotland today.

That's 0.0000005% of the population got it.

That's us fucked.

[Grim Jim]

3 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

That's 0.0000005% of the population got it.

That's us fucked.

I catch everything going.   (Even as a kid, I had mumps, measles, rubella & chicken pox and my sister had none of them.)

I have a chesty cough this morning 😷

[Huddersfield]

I'll be honest here, I'm starting to brick it a bit. I'm mid-50s & have a serious lung problem. The combined stats would suggest if I get it, I'll have about a 15-20% chance of snuffing it. I'm not a gambling man & don't really like those odds too much. We've even been talking about my wife moving out & leaving me locked up here until it blows over.

I suppose the novelty of living in a Just-Eat paradise will blow over at some point so I anticipate that I'll just end up on a beer & pizza diet, spending my days writing shite on message boards.

Actually, business as usual really.

[kumnio]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

Has anyone explained how and why all these viruses keep coming from China/The Far East ?

Bird Flu, Swine Flu, SARS and now Corona 

 

46 minutes ago, Huddersfield said:

I’m no expert by any means but historically a lot of pandemic diseases start there. The Black Death is generally thought to have originated in China. I’m sure some of the dietary & hygiene habits of certain communities don’t help but I wonder if there’s other factors at play as well?

I like China, spent a good bit of time there last year, and will visit again this year, if this passes. However, away from the shiny parts of the big cities, the country is still dirt poor, uncivilised, barbaric and lacking any basic standards. If anyone has visited a wet market in China, you'd be amazed that thousands don't die from poisoning every day, theres no cleanliness, no food being chilled, theres flies, insects, rats going about the uncooked meat and sea food, with fruit and vegetables in close contact.

People have vile habits in regards to clearing throats, noses and even worse bladders and bowels. You will see kids defecating in the streets regularly, old men pishing anywhere, people spitting everywhere, and I mean everywhere, restaurants, train stations, even on tubes.

The Chinese says its part of their 5000 years of history, which is weird for a country thats only 70 years old. The vast majority of Chinese people don't think for themselves, they believe generations old fairy stories about health and wellbeing, science is belittled until its too late, then when they eventually require serious help, they don't take it. The CCP has turned over a billion people into unthinking vacuous shells.

Theres stories coming out of Wuhan of people being locked in houses and flats, and starving to death, of elderly patients with the virus being cremated alive. If it were almost anywhere else, Id doubt it, but these will most likely be true.

[Grim Jim]

Quote

The Scottish Government has warned that as many as 80% of the population could become infected by the virus, with potentially 4% of this group requiring hospital treatment.

On the upside, free curry for 2 weeks in self isolation:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18276515.coronavirus-glasgow-restaurant-promises-free-curry-anyone-catches-covid-19/

 

[TDYER63]

One for the conspiracy theorists. 
 

Coronavirus – An Orchestrated Overreaction?

Are the markets over-reacting? Are the Media and Financial Industry intentionally manipulating (or misinterpreting) coronavirus data in a case of using grossly inaccurate statistics filled with hyperbole to cause a desired outcome?

Coronavirus (aka Covid-19)

Covid-19, is a coronavirus in the same family as the common cold. Now it’s been determined that the virus may have been genetically engineered (by someone) to include HIV insertions (highly unlikely in nature) to make the virus more transmissible (transmission rate is referenced as ‘Ro’). ⁱ Much like SARs, the common cold and the Flu, it targets the Respiratory system.

Now what is NOT being discussed are the garbage statistics being used. Many in the Media and Financial Sector keep citing the ‘Ro’ rate and mortality rate (aka ‘case fatality rate’ or CFR for short) as a primary factor for Global economic instability. But really are they? Let’s take a closer look at both.

Just because something is ‘highly transmissible’ does not mean its fatal. The common cold is very transmissible but millions get it and survive annually. Same with the Flu. The ‘Ro’ rate of many diseases are far higher (and lower) than Covid-19. For example, “the R0 value of the 1918 [Spanish Flu] pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8. But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6…”. ⁱⁱ Currently, the New England Journal of Medicine states the Covid-19 ‘Ro’ is guestimated at 2.2. ⁱⁱⁱ I say ‘guestimated’ because frankly, there isn’t enough reliable statistical information (especially out of China) to make a qualified determination and the Covid-19 numbers alone mean very little isolated in a bubble. The Ro rates of measles, mumps, rubella, polio, HIV and Sars (at least according to Wikipedia’s secondary documented sources) are far higher than Covid-19.^iv Sure we know a great deal about the Flu and H1N1 due to years and decades of study, but Covid-19 is the new kid on the block.

Now that we’ve determined the Ro rate really is only one component of the picture (and a fuzzy one at that depending on how the math is calculated), let’s take a look at the Case Fatality Rate or “CFR”. WHO states Covid-19(at least in heavily hit China) is 3.0%, meanwhile Influenza has a whopping 6.7% (same as pneumonia) ^v. That clearly spells a dramatic difference between the two. Taking analysis further (and again, at least according to Wikipedia’s secondary documented sources), we can see that Yellow Fever (7.5%), Botulism (10%), Sars (11%), Typhoid (10-20%), Dengue Fever (26%), Cancer/Smallpox (30%), MERS (45%), just to name a few, all have eyepopping CFR rates far higher than Covid-19. ^vi

Now, besides China’s data being suspect, what the Media and Financial Community seem to want to ignore in breaking down the actual statistics behind the CFR are potential mitigating factors or factors which may give a clue as to how the CFR can be misinterpreted. A recent entry to the New England Journal of Medicine cites one study in Wuhan where there have been zero cases among children younger than 15; and that the CFR is 2% at most, and could be “considerably less than 1%.” ^viiIn yet another entry to the New England Journal of Medicine, it was reported that “Since patients who were mildly ill and who did not seek medical attention were not included in our study, the case fatality rate in a real-world scenario might be even lower.” ^viii

Scientists are attempting to understand the significance of the ACE2 receptor (Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) in the lungs which appears to be the entrance way for the cornoaviruses into the body.

Per a report from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory:

“We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area… ^ix

In a recent article which cites several prominent sources, including but not limited to: The University of South Carolina, the BBC, Gallup, smoking is indicated as a salient factor with coronaviruses (which could explain the limited cases of Covid-19 in anyone under 15 years of age in Wuhan as previously mentioned by the New England Journal of Medicine). In referring to the above mentioned Cold Spring Habor Laboratory report, the article states:

“…The study has no statistical significance, given that the sample size included only a handful of people with a single Asian victim, and such a small sample size is meaningless.

But the reference to ACE2 may be on the right track. Specifically, most scientists agree that both the Wuhan Coronavirus and the SARS virus which hit China in 2002-2003 attack the human body through the ACE2 receptor (short for ‘Angiotensin-converting enzyme-2’, which is an enzyme which plays a role in constriction of the lungs).

Here’s where it gets interesting …

A professor at the University of South Carolina found that smokers have significantly higher levels of ACE2 than non-smokers … but that no difference was found based on age, gender or racial group:

In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to  nonsmoker samples.

This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

Could this could help to explain why Chinese men are more susceptible to Coronavirus than other people?

Actually, it might…

The Chinese smoke a lot. BBC reported in 2015: China is the world’s biggest consumer of cigarettes – one in three cigarettes smoked globally is in China – as well as the world’s biggest tobacco producer. More than 300 million people – about a quarter of the population – smoke, with the average smoker consuming 22 cigarettes a day.

And it turns out that Chinese men smoke a lot more than Chinese women. For example, Gallup reported in 2005: Smoking in China is overwhelmingly a male habit. At least two-thirds of all Chinese men (68%) smoke at least occasionally, and roughly half (49%) are regular smokers. In contrast, only 6% of women smoke regularly (3%) or occasionally (3%).

Wikipedia writes: China … accounted for 51.4% of the world’s male smokers in 2015.

BBC notes: A new study has warned that a third of all men currently under the age of 20 in China will eventually die prematurely [from lung cancer and other diseases other than Coronavirus] if they do not give up smoking.

And a shockingly high percentage of Chinese male doctors smoke as well: A 2004 study conducted among 3,500 Chinese physicians found that 23% were regular smokers. There was a significant gender difference, with 41% of male physicians reporting to be smokers but only 1% of female physicians. More than one third of current smokers had smoked in front of their patients and nearly all had smoked during their work shift…”. ^x

SARS was similar in that an overwhelming majority of the people that died from SARS also had compromised Respiratory Systems due to smoking:

“…High rates of smoking have also been linked to more serious outcomes in both Sars and Mers.

One of the UK’s leading respiratory disease experts, Gisli Jenkins, professor of experimental medicine at Nottingham University, said that smokers had high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a form of lung damage. And people with COPD are at high risk generally of respiratory illnesses such as the new coronavirus.

Prof Jenkins said it would be ‘astonishing’ if smokers were not at greater risk of Covid-19 than non smokers. And he said there may be a link between high smoking rates and severity of the disease.

‘China has extremely high rates of COPD and it also has high rates of severe pneumonia. In this particular coronavirus 15 per cent of the Chinese population who have been infected have severe respiratory disease and around two per cent have died – in the rest of the world the disease doesn’t seem to be as bad’…

Dr Sanjay Agrawal, chair of the Royal College of Physicians’ Tobacco Advisory Group, said research showed that smokers were twice as likely to get pneumonia as non smokers.’They are also more likely to get infections, the reason being that smoking will affect your defences so you’re susceptible to both viral and bacterial infections,’ he said. He added that the current strategy for managing the disease was focused on containment and delay – if it takes a couple of months for Covid-19 to really take off in the UK, smokers who quit today would be less at risk from the disease when it eventually arrives…’ ^xi

The Flu, or Influenza, does kill 30K people annually in the US alone and therefore can be considered a dangerous virus, however the Covid-19 virus has, at the time this was written, while tragic, only resulted in just over 3000 fatalities globally, and a large percentage of those deaths are in China. ^xii

In short, where the raw data being collected by the CDC, and then being parroted by the Media and many in the Financial Community, is really challenged is:

* The raw Data fails to account for and document victims that have underlying medical conditions, advanced age and/or other aggravating factors such as inadequate health care that may be contributing to higher CFR rates; and

* The raw Data fails to account for proximal cases of Seasonal Influenza which, ironically, happens to be occurring at the same time and may be artificially influencing Ro and CFR ^xiii; and

* The raw Data is based on highly inaccurate coronavirus tests which many times offer highly inaccurate readings, let alone fail to account for human error in the administering (or not administering the tests) ^xiv; and

* The raw Data fails to take into account reports that smoking may be a significant factor and may be a significant aggravator to CFR of Covid-19 due to ‘ACE2’ receptors in lungs…

The market reaction to Covid-19 seems to be more based on fear than actual numbers. Which begs the question, who or what is really driving this and are the parties behind it really being responsible with their roles or are they intentionally misleading the markets in clandestine effort to benefit from losses? The data on Covid-19 is FAR from complete and while caution concerning the virus is highly suggested, the ‘herd like’ Media and Financial Community seems to be setting up a whole new larger set of victims unrelated to the virus itself.

i https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full
ii https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues
iii https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
iv https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
v https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
vi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
vii https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP
viii https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032?query=RP
ix https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
x https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02-13/why-most-coronavirus-deaths-have-been-chinese-men
xi https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-dangerous-smokers/
xii https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
xiii https://www.cbsnews.com/news/12-million-americans-misdiagnosed-each-year-study-says/ and
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdcs-coronavirus-test-bogged-down-by-questions-over-accuracy-and-availability-2020-02-28
xiv http://healthinsightuk.org/2020/02/12/coronavirus-a-reliable-test-is-badly-needed-we-dont-have-one/ and
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-chinese-hospitals-not-testing-patients-say-relatives
and https://www.witf.org/2020/02/13/a-change-in-how-one-chinese-province-reports-coronavirus-addsthousands-of-cases/

[dohadeer]

3 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

That's 0.0000005% of the population got it.

That's us fucked.

It’s 0.00005% - one in two million.

(Couple of extra zeros in your number that shouldn’t be there.)

Still a tiny percentage - for now - but there’s a big difference between one in two million and one in two hundred million.

[Orraloon]

5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Has anyone explained how and why all these viruses keep coming from China/The Far East ?

Bird Flu, Swine Flu, SARS and now Corona 

The last one didn't come from China. 

But some chinese people tend to get a lot closer to animals, in more poorly controlled conditions, than those of us in the west. So, it makes it more likely that a virus can cross the species barrier into humans.

The last big one was MERS which is thought to have crossed over from camels to humans. 

 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

One for the conspiracy theorists. 
 

Coronavirus – An Orchestrated Overreaction?

Are the markets over-reacting? Are the Media and Financial Industry intentionally manipulating (or misinterpreting) coronavirus data in a case of using grossly inaccurate statistics filled with hyperbole to cause a desired outcome?

Coronavirus (aka Covid-19)

Covid-19, is a coronavirus in the same family as the common cold. Now it’s been determined that the virus may have been genetically engineered (by someone) to include HIV insertions (highly unlikely in nature) to make the virus more transmissible (transmission rate is referenced as ‘Ro’). ⁱ Much like SARs, the common cold and the Flu, it targets the Respiratory system.

Now what is NOT being discussed are the garbage statistics being used. Many in the Media and Financial Sector keep citing the ‘Ro’ rate and mortality rate (aka ‘case fatality rate’ or CFR for short) as a primary factor for Global economic instability. But really are they? Let’s take a closer look at both.

Just because something is ‘highly transmissible’ does not mean its fatal. The common cold is very transmissible but millions get it and survive annually. Same with the Flu. The ‘Ro’ rate of many diseases are far higher (and lower) than Covid-19. For example, “the R0 value of the 1918 [Spanish Flu] pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8. But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6…”. ⁱⁱ Currently, the New England Journal of Medicine states the Covid-19 ‘Ro’ is guestimated at 2.2. ⁱⁱⁱ I say ‘guestimated’ because frankly, there isn’t enough reliable statistical information (especially out of China) to make a qualified determination and the Covid-19 numbers alone mean very little isolated in a bubble. The Ro rates of measles, mumps, rubella, polio, HIV and Sars (at least according to Wikipedia’s secondary documented sources) are far higher than Covid-19.^iv Sure we know a great deal about the Flu and H1N1 due to years and decades of study, but Covid-19 is the new kid on the block.

Now that we’ve determined the Ro rate really is only one component of the picture (and a fuzzy one at that depending on how the math is calculated), let’s take a look at the Case Fatality Rate or “CFR”. WHO states Covid-19(at least in heavily hit China) is 3.0%, meanwhile Influenza has a whopping 6.7% (same as pneumonia) ^v. That clearly spells a dramatic difference between the two. Taking analysis further (and again, at least according to Wikipedia’s secondary documented sources), we can see that Yellow Fever (7.5%), Botulism (10%), Sars (11%), Typhoid (10-20%), Dengue Fever (26%), Cancer/Smallpox (30%), MERS (45%), just to name a few, all have eyepopping CFR rates far higher than Covid-19. ^vi

Now, besides China’s data being suspect, what the Media and Financial Community seem to want to ignore in breaking down the actual statistics behind the CFR are potential mitigating factors or factors which may give a clue as to how the CFR can be misinterpreted. A recent entry to the New England Journal of Medicine cites one study in Wuhan where there have been zero cases among children younger than 15; and that the CFR is 2% at most, and could be “considerably less than 1%.” ^viiIn yet another entry to the New England Journal of Medicine, it was reported that “Since patients who were mildly ill and who did not seek medical attention were not included in our study, the case fatality rate in a real-world scenario might be even lower.” ^viii

Scientists are attempting to understand the significance of the ACE2 receptor (Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) in the lungs which appears to be the entrance way for the cornoaviruses into the body.

Per a report from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory:

“We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area… ^ix

In a recent article which cites several prominent sources, including but not limited to: The University of South Carolina, the BBC, Gallup, smoking is indicated as a salient factor with coronaviruses (which could explain the limited cases of Covid-19 in anyone under 15 years of age in Wuhan as previously mentioned by the New England Journal of Medicine). In referring to the above mentioned Cold Spring Habor Laboratory report, the article states:

“…The study has no statistical significance, given that the sample size included only a handful of people with a single Asian victim, and such a small sample size is meaningless.

But the reference to ACE2 may be on the right track. Specifically, most scientists agree that both the Wuhan Coronavirus and the SARS virus which hit China in 2002-2003 attack the human body through the ACE2 receptor (short for ‘Angiotensin-converting enzyme-2’, which is an enzyme which plays a role in constriction of the lungs).

Here’s where it gets interesting …

A professor at the University of South Carolina found that smokers have significantly higher levels of ACE2 than non-smokers … but that no difference was found based on age, gender or racial group:

In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to  nonsmoker samples.

This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

Could this could help to explain why Chinese men are more susceptible to Coronavirus than other people?

Actually, it might…

The Chinese smoke a lot. BBC reported in 2015: China is the world’s biggest consumer of cigarettes – one in three cigarettes smoked globally is in China – as well as the world’s biggest tobacco producer. More than 300 million people – about a quarter of the population – smoke, with the average smoker consuming 22 cigarettes a day.

And it turns out that Chinese men smoke a lot more than Chinese women. For example, Gallup reported in 2005: Smoking in China is overwhelmingly a male habit. At least two-thirds of all Chinese men (68%) smoke at least occasionally, and roughly half (49%) are regular smokers. In contrast, only 6% of women smoke regularly (3%) or occasionally (3%).

Wikipedia writes: China … accounted for 51.4% of the world’s male smokers in 2015.

BBC notes: A new study has warned that a third of all men currently under the age of 20 in China will eventually die prematurely [from lung cancer and other diseases other than Coronavirus] if they do not give up smoking.

And a shockingly high percentage of Chinese male doctors smoke as well: A 2004 study conducted among 3,500 Chinese physicians found that 23% were regular smokers. There was a significant gender difference, with 41% of male physicians reporting to be smokers but only 1% of female physicians. More than one third of current smokers had smoked in front of their patients and nearly all had smoked during their work shift…”. ^x

SARS was similar in that an overwhelming majority of the people that died from SARS also had compromised Respiratory Systems due to smoking:

“…High rates of smoking have also been linked to more serious outcomes in both Sars and Mers.

One of the UK’s leading respiratory disease experts, Gisli Jenkins, professor of experimental medicine at Nottingham University, said that smokers had high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a form of lung damage. And people with COPD are at high risk generally of respiratory illnesses such as the new coronavirus.

Prof Jenkins said it would be ‘astonishing’ if smokers were not at greater risk of Covid-19 than non smokers. And he said there may be a link between high smoking rates and severity of the disease.

‘China has extremely high rates of COPD and it also has high rates of severe pneumonia. In this particular coronavirus 15 per cent of the Chinese population who have been infected have severe respiratory disease and around two per cent have died – in the rest of the world the disease doesn’t seem to be as bad’…

Dr Sanjay Agrawal, chair of the Royal College of Physicians’ Tobacco Advisory Group, said research showed that smokers were twice as likely to get pneumonia as non smokers.’They are also more likely to get infections, the reason being that smoking will affect your defences so you’re susceptible to both viral and bacterial infections,’ he said. He added that the current strategy for managing the disease was focused on containment and delay – if it takes a couple of months for Covid-19 to really take off in the UK, smokers who quit today would be less at risk from the disease when it eventually arrives…’ ^xi

The Flu, or Influenza, does kill 30K people annually in the US alone and therefore can be considered a dangerous virus, however the Covid-19 virus has, at the time this was written, while tragic, only resulted in just over 3000 fatalities globally, and a large percentage of those deaths are in China. ^xii

In short, where the raw data being collected by the CDC, and then being parroted by the Media and many in the Financial Community, is really challenged is:

* The raw Data fails to account for and document victims that have underlying medical conditions, advanced age and/or other aggravating factors such as inadequate health care that may be contributing to higher CFR rates; and

* The raw Data fails to account for proximal cases of Seasonal Influenza which, ironically, happens to be occurring at the same time and may be artificially influencing Ro and CFR ^xiii; and

* The raw Data is based on highly inaccurate coronavirus tests which many times offer highly inaccurate readings, let alone fail to account for human error in the administering (or not administering the tests) ^xiv; and

* The raw Data fails to take into account reports that smoking may be a significant factor and may be a significant aggravator to CFR of Covid-19 due to ‘ACE2’ receptors in lungs…

The market reaction to Covid-19 seems to be more based on fear than actual numbers. Which begs the question, who or what is really driving this and are the parties behind it really being responsible with their roles or are they intentionally misleading the markets in clandestine effort to benefit from losses? The data on Covid-19 is FAR from complete and while caution concerning the virus is highly suggested, the ‘herd like’ Media and Financial Community seems to be setting up a whole new larger set of victims unrelated to the virus itself.

i https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full
ii https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#rsubsubvalues
iii https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
iv https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
v https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
vi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
vii https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP
viii https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032?query=RP
ix https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
x https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02-13/why-most-coronavirus-deaths-have-been-chinese-men
xi https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-dangerous-smokers/
xii https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
xiii https://www.cbsnews.com/news/12-million-americans-misdiagnosed-each-year-study-says/ and
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdcs-coronavirus-test-bogged-down-by-questions-over-accuracy-and-availability-2020-02-28
xiv http://healthinsightuk.org/2020/02/12/coronavirus-a-reliable-test-is-badly-needed-we-dont-have-one/ and
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-chinese-hospitals-not-testing-patients-say-relatives
and https://www.witf.org/2020/02/13/a-change-in-how-one-chinese-province-reports-coronavirus-addsthousands-of-cases/

Markets always react to fear, nothing new there.

 

[glasgow jock]

4 hours ago, kumnio said:

 

I like China, spent a good bit of time there last year, and will visit again this year, if this passes. However, away from the shiny parts of the big cities, the country is still dirt poor, uncivilised, barbaric and lacking any basic standards. If anyone has visited a wet market in China, you'd be amazed that thousands don't die from poisoning every day, theres no cleanliness, no food being chilled, theres flies, insects, rats going about the uncooked meat and sea food, with fruit and vegetables in close contact.

People have vile habits in regards to clearing throats, noses and even worse bladders and bowels. You will see kids defecating in the streets regularly, old men pishing anywhere, people spitting everywhere, and I mean everywhere, restaurants, train stations, even on tubes.

The Chinese says its part of their 5000 years of history, which is weird for a country thats only 70 years old. The vast majority of Chinese people don't think for themselves, they believe generations old fairy stories about health and wellbeing, science is belittled until its too late, then when they eventually require serious help, they don't take it. The CCP has turned over a billion people into unthinking vacuous shells.

Theres stories coming out of Wuhan of people being locked in houses and flats, and starving to death, of elderly patients with the virus being cremated alive. If it were almost anywhere else, Id doubt it, but these will most likely be true.

Good post and interesting - don't know if it's true or not, but do some of the markets  skin, and boil dogs / cats alive, although these stories you hear / read could be complete nonsense ??

[kumnio]

17 minutes ago, glasgow jock said:

Good post and interesting - don't know if it's true or not, but do some of the markets  skin, and boil dogs / cats alive, although these stories you hear / read could be complete nonsense ??

Thats true sadly, some of these people believe that the meat of animals will taste better, or be more tender if the animal suffered. Its not only small mammals though, sea food, and even things like turtles and lizards are cooked alive. 

Even things like eggs are sometimes cooked in young boys urine as a health benefit though.

Their approach to food and drink is absolutely awful.

Edited to say, theres plenty of documentary evidence of this, even videos, although Id strongly recommend not watching any of then, or even reading the stories, its enough to make your blood boil.

Edited March 4, 2020 by kumnio

[glasgow jock]

11 minutes ago, kumnio said:

Thats true sadly, some of these people believe that the meat of animals will taste better, or be more tender if the animal suffered. Its not only small mammals though, sea food, and even things like turtles and lizards are cooked alive. 

Even things like eggs are sometimes cooked in young boys urine as a health benefit though.

Their approach to food and drink is absolutely awful.

Edited to say, theres plenty of documentary evidence of this, even videos, although Id strongly recommend not watching any of then, or even reading the stories, its enough to make your blood boil.

Cheers Kumnio - couldn't watch any of that shit though, strange country, backwards & yet sometimes brilliant in so many ways & levels.

[Orraloon]

7 minutes ago, kumnio said:

Thats true sadly, some of these people believe that the meat of animals will taste better, or be more tender if the animal suffered. Its not only small mammals though, sea food, and even things like turtles and lizards are cooked alive. 

Even things like eggs are sometimes cooked in young boys urine as a health benefit though.

Their approach to food and drink is absolutely awful.

Different cultures have different values. Folk in the west, in general, are OK with boiling things like mussels and lobsters alive but would draw the line well before boiling a live cat. These old school Chinese folk probably think of dogs and cats as no different to snails or any other animal in that respect. We think it's weird and horrible behavior to boil live cats but some Chinese folk think nothing of it. We have some weird behaviour when it comes to animals as well. We have all seen folk taking their dog for a "walk" but the dog is in a pram. Now, that is fukin weird behaviour in my book,. Almost as weird as boiling a live cat.

 

[dohadeer]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Different cultures have different values. Folk in the west, in general, are OK with boiling things like mussels and lobsters alive but would draw the line well before boiling a live cat. These old school Chinese folk probably think of dogs and cats as no different to snails or any other animal in that respect. We think it's weird and horrible behavior to boil live cats but some Chinese folk think nothing of it. We have some weird behaviour when it comes to animals as well. We have all seen folk taking their dog for a "walk" but the dog is in a pram. Now, that is fukin weird behaviour in my book,. Almost as weird as boiling a live cat.

 

As a vegetarian, that’s something that I’ve never quite understood. The idea that some people think some animals should be kept as pets, and treated like a member of the family, mourned when they die etc, whereas other animals should be killed and eaten.

I’ve always found the easiest place to draw the line is by not killing/eating any type of animal. I couldn’t distinguish between different animals in that way.

[kumnio]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Different cultures have different values. Folk in the west, in general, are OK with boiling things like mussels and lobsters alive but would draw the line well before boiling a live cat. These old school Chinese folk probably think of dogs and cats as no different to snails or any other animal in that respect. We think it's weird and horrible behavior to boil live cats but some Chinese folk think nothing of it. We have some weird behaviour when it comes to animals as well. We have all seen folk taking their dog for a "walk" but the dog is in a pram. Now, that is fukin weird behaviour in my book,. Almost as weird as boiling a live cat.

 

Mussels and lobsters cant feel pain, and wont scream in pain if harmed, dogs and cats will. It would take a certain kind of psychopath to do that in the West, or an average Chinese person.

Id argue its not culture, China and Taiwan split only 70 years ago, but Taiwan is a first world country, and would never tolerate, let alone participate in similar behaviour.

If you take pleasure in harming animals, Id suggest youre an uneducated wanker, be in a Chinese person participating in skinning a dog, or a Yank shooting a lion.