Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[wheres the pies]

40 minutes ago, mariokempes56 said:

Ch4 news interviewing punters & Tory MPs  in England . MPs totally delighted that on the doorstep they are hearing "May is fab etc etc, great leader".

She doesn't do interviews (and if so never answers a question), cannot debate at all other than repeating the same old sound bites.

 Am I alone in thinking she is utterly out of her depth ? Is just down south that seems to think she is marvelous ?

Your are not alone totally agree in saying that some auld wummin was wetting her incontence pants this morning on radio 4 praising may but she was from Giffnock 

[Guest flumax]

5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Thankfully we have Lesley Riddoch

http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/lesley-riddoch-may-won-t-get-completely-free-run-1-4427375

Don't know why she bothers writing click bait for the scotsman. The comments show she's not changing anyone's mind. Hiding to nothing. 

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, mariokempes56 said:

Is just down south that seems to think she is marvelous ?

I would say May's more popular than Cameron was in Scotland  (low bar there I accept)...

 

Edited April 24, 2017 by Toepoke

[mariokempes56]

30 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

I would say May's more popular than Cameron was in Scotland  (low bar there I accept)...

 

I really do not get it - she comes across ( to me anyway ) useless, arrogant, humorless, pedantic, hopelessly out of her depth- never ever a leader.Yet her MPs were ecstatic with the doorstep reactions. Are these people insane / gullible /thick ? Still she has the entire media circus batting for her.

 

 Magi ( who i despised with a passion ) at least had a personality ..of a sort. [#kin cow]

[kumnio]

People that I know mostly kinda grudgingly respected Cameron, most also think May is a complete fake who has somehow managed to get her feet in under the door. 

May might be a good MP, but she has been gifted the PM position, no doubt she will win re-election, but I don't think she will have had anything to do with it. 

[Ally Bongo]

Just read that on polling the Tories lead in Wales for the first time in 100 years.

They have overturned a 5 point defecit to Labour and now lead by 10 points

Overlooking how much Wales has benefited from the EU, statistics show that a third of Welsh Children live in poverty.

Almost as bad as people in Scotland who experienced what the Tories did in the 80s and 90s going back to them

WTF is going on ?

[weekevie04]

This isn't really an election. It's a re-affirmation that the UK wants a Brexit, and a Tory one at that.

May's had 3 main staffers quit in the last week, she refuses to debate, and calls an election because the polls look good when there is meant to be a fixed-term parliament of five years, yet she seemingly is heading for just under 50% of the UK vote.

Now to contradict the thought that the Tories will romp home in June. The Brexit vote was close, and there's the no single market/free movement of people that the Tories are going down, and there's the 100% jump in registration of young voters plus the anti-Brexit parties all seemingly gaining lots of new members. Are the polls actually over-estimating the Tory lead?

If the SNP don't do as well in the local elections as they might have hoped for ; this could be a bit of a boot up the arse for people within the party and voters, to get out and vote on the 8th of June against the Conservatives.

Britain is a weird place though, and the delusions of grandeur where they are in the world today by a large number of the population are off the scale so it wouldn't surprise me if places like Wales, and even Scotland returned a dozen Tories.

 

[antidote]

7 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Just read that on polling the Tories lead in Wales for the first time in 100 years.

They have overturned a 5 point defecit to Labour and now lead by 10 points

Overlooking how much Wales has benefited from the EU, statistics show that a third of Welsh Children live in poverty.

Almost as bad as people in Scotland who experienced what the Tories did in the 80s and 90s going back to them

WTF is going on ?

Jeremy Corbyn. Then there's the brexit thingy.

Edited April 25, 2017 by antidote

[Orraloon]

8 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Just read that on polling the Tories lead in Wales for the first time in 100 years.

They have overturned a 5 point defecit to Labour and now lead by 10 points

Overlooking how much Wales has benefited from the EU, statistics show that a third of Welsh Children live in poverty.

Almost as bad as people in Scotland who experienced what the Tories did in the 80s and 90s going back to them

WTF is going on ?

You should never underestimate the power of propaganda.

 

[Alibi]

Remember that to Scotland's eternal shame, a UKIP MEP sneaked in at the last EU election.  There are obviously some genuine Tories in Scotland - I know a few and they're generally OK people and it has to be said rather different from the stereotypical English Tory.  The Tories are hoovering up the unionist vote from Labour and in this election we might not get the same benefit as in 2015 from the yoon vote being split, so it is possible a few Tories will get in.  This nonsense that if the sNP lose even 1 seat, the indyref should be blocked is just yoon spin.  The fact of the matter is that if the SNP put in their manifesto that 30 seats or more meant we would start negotiation for indy, and we got 30+ seats, the yoons would be screaming blue murder.  They just want to block indy by fair means or foul.  Generally foul.

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Alibi said:

Remember that to Scotland's eternal shame, a UKIP MEP sneaked in at the last EU election.  There are obviously some genuine Tories in Scotland - I know a few and they're generally OK people and it has to be said rather different from the stereotypical English Tory.  The Tories are hoovering up the unionist vote from Labour and in this election we might not get the same benefit as in 2015 from the yoon vote being split, so it is possible a few Tories will get in.  This nonsense that if the sNP lose even 1 seat, the indyref should be blocked is just yoon spin.  The fact of the matter is that if the SNP put in their manifesto that 30 seats or more meant we would start negotiation for indy, and we got 30+ seats, the yoons would be screaming blue murder.  They just want to block indy by fair means or foul.  Generally foul.

Coburn got in for two reasons.  Firstly, UKIP generally do better than they should do at European elections as their vote is a lot more motivated to vote than the other parties.  Turnout is usually very low, in 2014 it was 35.6% across the UK and this gives UKIP a disproportionate advantage. 

Secondly, there was a campaign to stop the SNP getting the third seat which resulted in Tory and Labour voters voting UKIP tactically.   

UKIP's share of the vote was 10.5%, they've never came anywhere close to that in any national election before or since.

i actually think it's backfired a but on them as Coburn is such an obvious buffoon.  

 

[sbcmfc]

Just now, aaid said:

i actually think it's backfired a but on them as Coburn is such an obvious buffoon.  

 

That guy is a grade A khunt!

He can't help being one, and speaks like one every time a microphone is put in front of him.

Hopefully anyone who elected him is embarrassed every time he opens his fat mouth!

[hampden_loon2878]

8 minutes ago, aaid said:

Coburn got in for two reasons.  Firstly, UKIP generally do better than they should do at European elections as their vote is a lot more motivated to vote than the other parties.  Turnout is usually very low, in 2014 it was 35.6% across the UK and this gives UKIP a disproportionate advantage. 

Secondly, there was a campaign to stop the SNP getting the third seat which resulted in Tory and Labour voters voting UKIP tactically.   

UKIP's share of the vote was 10.5%, they've never came anywhere close to that in any national election before or since.

i actually think it's backfired a but on them as Coburn is such an obvious buffoon.  

 

TBH i would be delighted if ukip stood in banff and buchan as it would suck a lot of brain dead voters away from the tories,, 

[Haggis_trap]

David Coburn is great entertainment - cant help but watch him

[Orraloon]

18 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

TBH i would be delighted if ukip stood in banff and buchan as it would suck a lot of brain dead voters away from the tories,, 

I would have thought one of your fishermen friends would be standing for UKIP?

[hampden_loon2878]

20 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I would have thought one of your fishermen friends would be standing for UKIP?

Why would you presume that? Most fishermen are now tories,, while on the topic i see bertie armstrong was approached to stand for the tories in banff and buchan, surely being the leader of the sff and being politically aligned would be conflicts interests,, iv often heard whispers hes gone out his way to make sure the fishing gets a bad deal and tgen blames the SG 

[Orraloon]

29 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Why would you presume that? 

I thought that was why they were called kippers?

[jockodile]

Utterly naïve comparison but I quite liked David Coburn's tirade against Nicola's 'Bonnie Prince Charlie' rebellion.

If only it didn't hurt the case it would be funny to see his reaction to mention of a ref on the restoration of Franz, Duke of Bavaria.

 

[PapofGlencoe]

I think a lot of SNP supporters are as jaded as the next when it comes to votes.  I'm not sure everyone can really be arssed with another referendum so soon and definitely not a general election.  It feels like one we've been boxed into early.  I do not believe Sturgeon thought she had any other choice and I respect taking the choice to the people but it's coming at a very inopportune time...just Scotland's luck.  I think a lot will depend on turnout.  The Tories believe a lot of fringe SNP voters are less likely to turn out this time. 

They'll win most of the seats but see their vote being in relative terms way down.  Labour imploding will help the Tories, and Fibs.

There were signs on pockets of anti-Snp voting in the scots parliament election of 2015.  Can only see that being more sharp in the next one.

 

[Padre Andrew]

16 hours ago, mariokempes56 said:

 Am I alone in thinking she is utterly out of her depth ? Is just down south that seems to think she is marvelous ?

I think she looks out of her depth. She snuck into the Tory leadership while idiots and buffoons around her were tripping themselves up.

Reportedly she was the last one in her inner cabinet to believe a snap election was the right thing to do, which kind of begs the question - who's really controlling things behind the scenes? Are we falling for the 'Look-at-the-monkey' routine?

[PapofGlencoe]

2 minutes ago, Padre Andrew said:

I think she looks out of her depth. She snuck into the Tory leadership while idiots and buffoons around her were tripping themselves up.

Reportedly she was the last one in her inner cabinet to believe a snap election was the right thing to do, which kind of begs the question - who's really controlling things behind the scenes? Are we falling for the 'Look-at-the-monkey' routine?

She is not in the same orbit as Alex Salmond but if you had a pound for amount of people who said he was a good politician but didn't like him you'd be rich.

Davidson at a mini league level is the same.  Sharp operator and confident.  Her weakness is in taking particular lines of argument which can trip her up later on.  Line in the sand, EU removal etc.

To people of a Unionist mindset, that doesn't matter.  They are looking for someone to speak up for them with confidence and competence.  I hate a lot of what she says but fills that space.  Plus 10-18 points in the polls tells it's own story.

Ironically if Labour had not completely self combusted, I think we'd be on course for full independence.  It would have been hard Tory brexit against a 90s style Labour/SNP left conscience.  Now the Unionist population have contorted themselves into being comfortable Tories, lost a big part of the campaign.

[jockodile]

8 minutes ago, Padre Andrew said:

I think she looks out of her depth. She snuck into the Tory leadership while idiots and buffoons around her were tripping themselves up.

Reportedly she was the last one in her inner cabinet to believe a snap election was the right thing to do, which kind of begs the question - who's really controlling things behind the scenes? Are we falling for the 'Look-at-the-monkey' routine?

She does look a bit out of her depth I agree. I felt certain Osborne was just biding his time to see the deal turned out to be rotten then he'd challenge. with him leaving this time and May surely securing a big majority she's maybe smarter than it seems

[Orraloon]

52 minutes ago, jockodile said:

She does look a bit out of her depth I agree. I felt certain Osborne was just biding his time to see the deal turned out to be rotten then he'd challenge. with him leaving this time and May surely securing a big majority she's maybe smarter than it seems

I think Gideon is smarter than he looks. He could easily make a come back in 10 years time if he fancies it. Once all the mental brexit shit is sorted out.

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I think a lot of SNP supporters are as jaded as the next when it comes to votes.  I'm not sure everyone can really be arssed with another referendum so soon and definitely not a general election.  It feels like one we've been boxed into early.  I do not believe Sturgeon thought she had any other choice and I respect taking the choice to the people but it's coming at a very inopportune time...just Scotland's luck.  I think a lot will depend on turnout.  The Tories believe a lot of fringe SNP voters are less likely to turn out this time. 

They'll win most of the seats but see their vote being in relative terms way down.  Labour imploding will help the Tories, and Fibs.

There were signs on pockets of anti-Snp voting in the scots parliament election of 2015.  Can only see that being more sharp in the next one.

 

No I don't see it totally that way.

Personally, I'd have preferred waiting a few years before pushing for another referendum but Brexit changed all that - it was a game changer. It was a clear vote against what Scots had voted for. Can you imagine if the SNP hadn't pushed for a referendum after that? Any future request for a referendum would have been made under far more watered down circumstances and the unionists would say well you didn't want one after Brexit (biggest political decision made in the UK in decades and most controversial) so what are the grounds for asking now? In short their hand was forced.

As for the general election it would be a surprise if the Tories don't nibble away at the SNP's majority in some way. The unionist vote was split last time around but this time the Tories (for yoons) are the party to back as Labour are in a shambolic mess. The Tories I see picking up maybe four seats and I dread hearing the yoon media painting it as a protest vote against another referendum when, in fact, all it is, is yoon's organising themselves to vote tactically this time.

Edited April 25, 2017 by Caledonian Craig

[Haggis_trap]

^ Sturgeon played a blinder - no one wants a second referendum just yet.... Not until we think its winnable.
However she had to make a move and called Mays bluff big time.