PapofGlencoe Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said: No I don't see it totally that way. Personally, I'd have preferred waiting a few years before pushing for another referendum but Brexit changed all that - it was a game changer. It was a clear vote against what Scots had voted for. Can you imagine if the SNP hadn't pushed for a referendum after that? Any future request for a referendum would have been made under far more watered down circumstances and the unionists would say well you didn't want one after Brexit (biggest political decision made in the UK in decades and most controversial) so what are the grounds for asking now? In short their hand was forced. As for the general election it would be a surprise if the Tories don't nibble away at the SNP's majority in some way. The unionist vote was split last time around but this time the Tories (for yoons) are the party to back as Labour are in a shambolic mess. The Tories I see picking up maybe four seats and I dread hearing the yoon media painting it as a protest vote against another referendum when, in fact, all it is, is yoon's organising themselves to vote tactically this time. That's what I mean. Nobody's totally enthused to have the referendum now but we had no choice. The SNP's vote will drop as the Tories organise themselves as the Unionist bloc. We're saying the same thing, I'm just seeing it from a pessimistic angle haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said: That's what I mean. Nobody's totally enthused to have the referendum now but we had no choice. The SNP's vote will drop as the Tories organise themselves as the Unionist bloc. We're saying the same thing, I'm just seeing it from a pessimistic angle haha. No the SNP vote won't drop - the gains the Tories will get (at least of vote share) are unionists shifting their vote from Labour to Conservative. I cannot see many people transferring from SNP to Tory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Is there a point in which sturgeon would have to consider her position as leader, say the party fails to get 35 seat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 44 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Is there a point in which sturgeon would have to consider her position as leader, say the party fails to get 35 seat That is just daft talk - not meaning to be nasty in anyway mate. Just remember we are talking about the SNP here winning what would be more than half the seats across Scotland. Considering how the SNP used to fight for crumbs in general elections and getting more than five seats was a massive result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbcmfc Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Nicola Sturgeon could be a political Claudio Rainieri. The result at the last GE was a bit like Leicester winning the league, it was beyond even the most optimistic of predictions, and they probably can't get back there. Hopefully it goes slightly better than Leicesters title defence though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertsscot Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Is there a point in which sturgeon would have to consider her position as leader, say the party fails to get 35 seat SNP would have got about 60% of the seats in Scotland which would be an absolute landslide. Has any party ever got 60% of available seats in the House of Commons, I seriously doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hertsscot said: SNP would have got about 60% of the seats in Scotland which would be an absolute landslide. Has any party ever got 60% of available seats in the House of Commons, I seriously doubt it. Precisely. I think last time around in the GE the SNP became the first party in Scottish election results to get 50% share of electorate for over 50 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 On 22/04/2017 at 11:16 PM, Ally Bongo said: Going by my analysis of the 2015 General Election it can only possibly be from these constituencies. And in the majority of them they would need to rely on; 1 - All of the Unionist vote going to the Tories 2 - Those that voted SNP in 2015 not doing so in 2017 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway East Renfrewshire Edinburgh North & East Edinburgh South West Edinburgh West North East Fife Ochil & South Perthshire Paisley & Renfrewshire North Paisley & Renfrewshire South Stirling West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Looks like someone has been reading the TAMB https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/04/24/keep-calm-the-snp-will-keep-nearly-all-of-their-seats/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 May is being given freedom to spout the usual pish on all channels, unchallenged completely. No questions on NHS / schools or ANYTHING at all. Zilch. Ive been around a while but has the propaganda machinery always been this bad ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheres the pies Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, mariokempes56 said: May is being given freedom to spout the usual pish on all channels, unchallenged completely. No questions on NHS / schools or ANYTHING at all. Zilch. Ive been around a while but has the propaganda machinery always been this bad ? Aye your right nhs in crisis public services being cut to the bone and yet not a peep it's all about fecking brexit and this suits the media especially the right wing mob I really dispear never felt this bad since the early 80s about an election Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 FFS Corbyn! Is he this incompetent on purpose? He's just announced he won't debate without Teresa May. So there goes the chance of the empty-seat then... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, weekevie04 said: FFS Corbyn! Is he this incompetent on purpose? He's just announced he won't debate without Teresa May. So there goes the chance of the empty-seat then... Joke. Seriously a buffoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Ringpiece With all these call offs (and Farron not wanting to answer any more bum sex questions) it's almost certain to be the Willie Rennie show Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Reports that Blair McDougall will be standing for Labour in East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy's old seat and now Kirsten Oswald) Murphy won it from the Tory's and Kirsten won it from Labour That should dilute the Unionist vote as McDougall and Murphy's Tory lite is popular down that neck of the woods Kirsten is and has been a very good MP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haggis_trap Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Derek Bateman has a good article about why the Tories getting 20-30% vote share makes independence more likely. Basically the die hard unionists are manning the life rafts. Scottish politics has clearly become a two horse race. SNP (progressive / independence) or Tory (Lurching right to xenophobic brexit). Long term I know who my money is on it eventually come out on top....http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/23/the-tories-are-coming/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Just now, Haggis_trap said: Long term I know who my money is on it eventually come out on top.... The Tories lol ? Look at Wales ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said: Derek Bateman has a good article about why the Tories getting 20-30% vote share makes independence more likely. Basically the die hard unionists are manning the life rafts. Scottish politics has clearly become a two horse race. SNP (progressive / independence) or Tory (Lurching right to xenophobic brexit). Long term I know who my money is on it eventually come out on top....http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/23/the-tories-are-coming/ Aye, the Tory surge is so great that they are almost getting back to Maggie Thatcher levels of popularity. Even she got over 30% in one of her elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Aye, the Tory surge is so great that they are almost getting back to Maggie Thatcher levels of popularity. Even she got over 30% in one of her elections. The Tory vote was on the way down when Maggie came along. Her legacy finished the job off. As Bateman is alluding to the Unionist vote in Scotland swarming to the Tories feels like the last resort option is being taken... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, Toepoke said: The Tory vote was on the way down when Maggie came along. Her legacy finished the job off. As Bateman is alluding to the Unionist vote in Scotland swarming to the Tories feels like the last resort option is being taken... In Oct 74 they got 25%. Thatcher got 31% in 1979, but that was before most folk realised what an evil witch she was. But even in her last election in 1987 she got 24% of the vote in Scotland. RapeclauseRuthie isn't doing as well as the right wing media Tory propaganda machine would like us to think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 (edited) My granda always said the best way to predict the future is to look at the past. That is very true with the political set up at the moment. Just as thatcher did TM will get a huge majority, she will hammer the Public sector and steam roller over us,, Thatcher denied us devolution even though we voted for it just as she will do with the referendum.. There are striking similarities Edited April 26, 2017 by hampden_loon2878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertsscot Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 51 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: My granda always said the best way to predict the future is to look at the past. That is very true with the political set up at the moment. Just as thatcher did TM will get a huge majority, she will hammer the Public sector and steam roller over us,, Thatcher denied us devolution even though we voted for it just as she will do with the referendum.. There are striking similarities Agreed I think I'm reliving some of my teenage years with Trump instead of Reagan and May instead of Thatcher. Only this time round the music's not as good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheres the pies Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hertsscot said: Agreed I think I'm reliving some of my teenage years with Trump instead of Reagan and May instead of Thatcher. Only this time round the music's not as good! If it's any consolation bananarama are making a comeback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 What will be annoying is listening to the media. The Tory vote share in Scotland will rise - that is a given. No doubt they will try painting it as people voting against a referendum when it is nothing of the sort. It will be unionists simply organising themselves and deciding the Tories are the go to unionist party. Their vote share will rise by about the same amount as the Labour vote will drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: Reports that Blair McDougall will be standing for Labour in East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy's old seat and now Kirsten Oswald) Murphy won it from the Tory's and Kirsten won it from Labour That should dilute the Unionist vote as McDougall and Murphy's Tory lite is popular down that neck of the woods Kirsten is and has been a very good MP East Ren will be a fight between The SNP and the Tories, if Labour put a strong candidate up, that ll help SNP... Its a tory target seat...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, stocky said: East Ren will be a fight between The SNP and the Tories, if Labour put a strong candidate up, that ll help SNP... Its a tory target seat...... Probably why they've put Blair McDougall up then. Edited April 26, 2017 by aaid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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