killiefaetheferry Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, Toepoke said: There seems to be an increasing percentage of the electorate who are happy to let the Tories sh*te in their mince if it means putting the boot into the SNP. Many Labour voters have realised that and moved to the SNP. They now seem to be losing voters to the Tories though. Not in as big a number, but certainly the kind of Labour people for whom Unionism was the chief concern are switching from red to blue. But still in an orange kinda way ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: I dont think it will happen I think the Tories will buy her off But if Gina Miller stands against Theresa May in Maidenhead and Labour and the Lib Dems pull out to make it a two way fight a few gasses will be at a peep That'll be interesting but no-one should be under any illusion that May is under any threat whatsoever in Maidenhead. A lot's been made about the fact that Maidenhead voted Remain but it was only 52% in favour. I don't get any sense of outrage locally about the referendum result, there are packs of remoaners roaming the leafy streets. On top of that Theresa May is hugely popular locally - I've said before she's a very good constituency MP and I stand by that - the general sense I get is a certain local pride at having the local MP as PM. Her majority is 29,000 FFS. I'm not sure I'd vote for Gina Miller, that said I did vote Lib Dem tactically in 2005 to try and get May out then, I felt dirty and it didn't work anyway as she increased her majority and that ruined tactical voting for me. 22 minutes ago, Toepoke said: There seems to be an increasing percentage of the electorate who are happy to let the Tories sh*te in their mince if it means putting the boot into the SNP. Many Labour voters have realised that and moved to the SNP. They now seem to be losing voters to the Tories though. Not in as big a number, but certainly the kind of Labour people for whom Unionism was the chief concern are switching from red to blue. Mhairi Hunter made a very good point on Twitter earlier about Labour's poll numbers,. They're trying to make a play for a section of the population that is small-c conservative on the constitution but who also wants increases in public spending *and* is prepared to see taxes increase to support that. Their problem is that's a very small section of the electorate and that's reflected in their numbers. Loads of people have been saying this but the only way for Labour in Scotland to even survive is to drop their entrenched opposition to independence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 JC's big idea to help keep the UK together... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/labour-plan-four-new-bank-holidays-for-each-uk-patron-saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 11 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: And the polling sample was shite Panic over Panic not over over 33% in a poll of over 1000 people give and indication of the general mood...scary scary times ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Panic not over over 33% in a poll of over 1000 people give and indication of the general mood...scary scary times ahead It's only 174 people though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Panic not over over 33% in a poll of over 1000 people give and indication of the general mood...scary scary times ahead 18 minutes ago, Orraloon said: It's only 174 people though. agreed Keep up Hampden Loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiefaetheferry Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 38 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Panic not over over 33% in a poll of over 1000 people give and indication of the general mood...scary scary times ahead Is it not 1000 UK wide, but Scottish subsample 174 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 25 minutes ago, Orraloon said: It's only 174 people though. Is it? Is the 1000+ correspondents uk wide? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) Hampden Loon has treated poorly by some on here before as he has genuine concerns at local level, and it looks like he was right and he's due an apology especially considering these two polls show there has been a swing to the Tories in Scotland. The 33% he refers to is a full, 1000 people, not 174 people. The other poll from last night has the SNP around 43% and the Tories 28%. Edited April 23, 2017 by weekevie04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andymac Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html This after the tax gaff from the Tories but is somewhat more realistic. Scotland: SNP No overall change Tories +2 Labour and the LibDems whitewashed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
min Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, weekevie04 said: Hampden Loon has treated poorly by some on here before as he has genuine concerns at local level, and it looks like he was right and he's due an apology especially considering these two polls show there has been a swing to the Tories in Scotland. The 33% he refers to is a full, 1000 people, not 174 people. The other poll from last night has the SNP around 43% and the Tories 28%. The Tory resurgence is real, I am in no doubt about that, yet there seems to be many on here and elsewhere in denial. Those figures would give the Tories 14 or so seats including some big scalps (Angus Robertson for one). I said earlier in the week that 45 or more seats for the SNP would be a great result and I stand by that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Will there come a point when the Labour and LibDem voters (nt necessarily the parties) will decide to go back to voting tactically against the Tories, rather than against the SNP? At what point does a Labour vote (on all those Tory resurgent areas) become a wasted voted - in effect, vote Labour, get Tory? Even British Labour might see the advantage of SNP holding back the Tories in Scotland, rather than using the Tories to hold back the SNP. And what about the papers? Will the Record at any point decide it's worth backing whoever best placed to hurt the Tories? And what about the Sun? They were happy to back the SNP last time, to ensure Labour was gutted and give Cameron a clear run at no.10. But this time, what's to stop them maximising the Tory majority by simply backing the Tories?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 I suspect the Lib Dems will do better in England than some people are suggesting. If you look at a lot of the constituencies that they lost to the Tories in 2015, particularly in places like the South West, what happened was that the Lib Dem vote collapsed - as it did nationally - but the Tory vote stayed fairly consistent. The Lib Dem vote seemed to go one of three ways, Labour, Greens or didn't vote at all. It wasn't a case of Lib Dem votes going to the Tories. Key for them is whether they can win back these 2010 voters, if they can then I would be surprised if they didn't get 20-30 seats. Big problems for them though is a lot of these target constituencies voted Leave. I also think Tim Farron is something of a liability, especially his views regarding Gay marriage and sex which I think would be a bit of an anathema to potential Lib Dems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, exile said: Will there come a point when the Labour and LibDem voters (nt necessarily the parties) will decide to go back to voting tactically against the Tories, rather than against the SNP? At what point does a Labour vote (on all those Tory resurgent areas) become a wasted voted - in effect, vote Labour, get Tory? Even British Labour might see the advantage of SNP holding back the Tories in Scotland, rather than using the Tories to hold back the SNP. And what about the papers? Will the Record at any point decide it's worth backing whoever best placed to hurt the Tories? And what about the Sun? They were happy to back the SNP last time, to ensure Labour was gutted and give Cameron a clear run at no.10. But this time, what's to stop them maximising the Tory majority by simply backing the Tories?. I suspect both the Sun and the Record will back the SNP. the Sun's been generally supportive of the SNP for a while now. I think the upcoming GE might be the point when the Record ditches Labour as a lost cause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 31 minutes ago, exile said: Will there come a point when the Labour and LibDem voters (nt necessarily the parties) will decide to go back to voting tactically against the Tories, rather than against the SNP? At what point does a Labour vote (on all those Tory resurgent areas) become a wasted voted - in effect, vote Labour, get Tory? Even British Labour might see the advantage of SNP holding back the Tories in Scotland, rather than using the Tories to hold back the SNP. And what about the papers? Will the Record at any point decide it's worth backing whoever best placed to hurt the Tories? And what about the Sun? They were happy to back the SNP last time, to ensure Labour was gutted and give Cameron a clear run at no.10. But this time, what's to stop them maximising the Tory majority by simply backing the Tories?. To me it just looks like a shuffling around of the Unionist votes, in this case from Labour to Tory there doesn't seem to be much evidence of the SNP vote slipping. Under FPTP, it looks more the Tories will end up being second in most constituencies but might not pick up too many seats. It actually opens up problems for the Unionist parties around tactical voting. For example, Ian Murray undoubtedly got in in 2015 off the back of a level of tactical voting to keep the SNP out. If you're a Tory and you think you've a chance of actually winning the seat are you going to vote Labour purely to keep the SNP out? Similarly if you're a Labour supporter, do you vote Tory, knowing you'll increase the number of Tory seats and their likely majority just to stick it up the SNP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 How do you break the ludicrous Protestanism/Unionism mindset ? Thats the $64000 question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: How do you break the ludicrous Protestanism/Unionism mindset ? Thats the $64000 question I don't see that you do. However, on the plus side, I'd put the staunch independence backers at around 40% of Scots (similar to the unionist vote). The more important matter is securing a bigger share of the waiverer's votes this time around for the yes campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 1 hour ago, aaid said: To me it just looks like a shuffling around of the Unionist votes, in this case from Labour to Tory there doesn't seem to be much evidence of the SNP vote slipping. Under FPTP, it looks more the Tories will end up being second in most constituencies but might not pick up too many seats. It actually opens up problems for the Unionist parties around tactical voting. For example, Ian Murray undoubtedly got in in 2015 off the back of a level of tactical voting to keep the SNP out. If you're a Tory and you think you've a chance of actually winning the seat are you going to vote Labour purely to keep the SNP out? Similarly if you're a Labour supporter, do you vote Tory, knowing you'll increase the number of Tory seats and their likely majority just to stick it up the SNP? I agree. The SNP vote share may drop by 1 or 2% but that is it. I reckon you will get Labour unionists jumping ship to jvote for the Tories as they look to do anything they can to protect their union, by strengthening the unionist parties in Scotland in whatever way they can - even if it means voting for a party you'd never have thought you would vote for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: How do you break the ludicrous Protestanism/Unionism mindset ? Thats the $64000 question That only plays a small part in Scottish politics,, yes its there but what would it effect 20% of votes? The Brexit situation should have been played as a long game,, not instantly alienating large swathes of the core support,,,the then proposed 2020 and holyrood elections 2021 should gave been seen as the mandate for indy ref 2 with the core message "what scotland wants it should gets",,, instead everything independence related has turned into tge EU VS UK we will never win like that,,,i have been saying this for a while that sturgeon has miss calcuted this,,, the levels of hatred shown towards her exceeds anything I remember directed towards salmond,, i just dont think shes up to it.. we will still be the biggest party come may but we may well take some painful hits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said: How do you break the ludicrous Protestanism/Unionism mindset ? Thats the $64000 question I can't speak for religion but something addressing Britishness and monarchy. How to make 'Brits' feel as much at home in iScotland as EU (non UK) citizens (who are more positively reached out to), a vision for a post-independence 'union of crowns' or '...of the isles' could be worth a look. But it would probably need to come from a 'convert', a patriotic unionist Scot type... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said: That only plays a small part in Scottish politics,, yes its there but what would it effect 20% of votes? The Brexit situation should have been played as a long game,, not instantly alienating large swathes of the core support,,,the then proposed 2020 and holyrood elections 2021 should gave been seen as the mandate for indy ref 2 with the core message "what scotland wants it should gets",,, instead everything independence related has turned into tge EU VS UK we will never win like that,,,i have been saying this for a while that sturgeon has miss calcuted this,,, the levels of hatred shown towards her exceeds anything I remember directed towards salmond,, i just dont think shes up to it.. we will still be the biggest party come may but we may well take some painful hits I agree and disagree. I agree with you that the next referendum should not be set up as Europe V UK for a number of reasons. Firstly, the referendum is solely about independence for Scotland and the Yes campaign need to avoid the European issue and concentrate on putting across the point that Scotland can thrive and flourish an an independent country. European membership is not guaranteed in any case and on top of that (although the majority do) not everyone is so pro- Europe so why risk alienating those from voting yes? During the campaign (if and when it comes) I'd prefer answers like we will revisit Europe in the future by holding a referendum if it is what the people want. That way everyone is kept happy. I don't agree about Nicola Sturgeon though. The venom fired in her direction is from the usual suspects - the unionists, the Unionist media and pro-union parties like Scottish Conservative and Scottish Labour. I don't detect anymore animosity towards her than there was for Salmond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: I don't agree about Nicola Sturgeon though. The venom fired in her direction is from the usual suspects - the unionists, the Unionist media and pro-union parties like Scottish Conservative and Scottish Labour. I don't detect anymore animosity towards her than there was for Salmond. Maybe not in terms of the amount of abuse - or the quarters it's coming from - but I'd say its a lot nastier than anything Salmond got and that's for one reason only, because she's a women. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) On the European-issue we should take heed from experience. The Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour vote share has plummetted in Scotland as they stand so negatively towards independence - a subject that is emotive to so many. The Yes campaign risk doing the same over Europe by putting all their eggs in the European basket. There are a lot of people who will refuse to vote yes if it comes in a package with Europe. However, what I would say to those people is that it may not happen for a number of years. And who knows what the climate will be by then? The UK may be deeply regretting their decision by then and more people may be more accepting of getting back into the EU. Edited April 23, 2017 by Caledonian Craig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) Small piece of comfort from the polls released is that the independence vote is steady as a rock,, that vote seems to be pretty much ring fenced Edited April 23, 2017 by hampden_loon2878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Just now, hampden_loon2878 said: Small piece of comfort from the pols is that the independence vote is steady as a rock,, that vote seems to be pretty much ring fenced As I see it you have hard core independence backers at 40%. Hard core unionists at 40% and about 20% floaters/don't knows/undecided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.