Ally Bongo Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Ally Bongo said: How stupid is that? Surely if she could batter her in a square go there would be no need for any hauners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 4 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said: Katy Clark supposed to be keen on getting the nomination for the Liverpool Walton constituency (one of Labour's safest seats) as the current MP is standing down. will scunnered move from Dalry to Liverpool... Anyhoo, where is scunnered.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said: By whom? Delicious to see she got a roasting at FMQs on the issue. I'm beginning to wonder if folk are starting to see through the caring, centrist Tory facade for the nasty, uncaring xenophobic that she is. For me, this is an open goal for the SNP. An opportunity to demonise her on a scale that is reserved for the likes of Foot, Kinnock and Corby by the right wing media I thought she - Davidson - was going to get away with this. She wouldn't go anywhere near TV or Radio when this came up during parliamentary recess and wouldn't comment on if. She got ridiculed and had to come up with her SNPBad line at the weekend, which really wasn't acceptable but when the GE was announced, I thought it would die a death. It doesn't look like it's going to and I suspect it'll follow her around for the next couple of weeks at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 19/04/2017 at 1:24 PM, flumax said: You must move in some odd circles. Banff & Buchan seems to be predicted that SNP to be dropping to a miniscule 24% majority I see going by the projections on the sit that shetland and orkney will go to the snp,, that would be brilliant but sadly that aint gonna happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said: I see going by the projections on the sit that shetland and orkney will go to the snp,, that would be brilliant but sadly that aint gonna happen These projections are pretty meaningless. They just take the national picture and apply that across the board without taking into account local factors. To get any sense of what's happening in individual constituencies you need to do targeted polling like Lord Ashcroft did in 2015. There's a bit a value in England and Wales because you are talking about a likely swing from Labour to the Tories so it's indicative of that but I wouldn't hold any faith in that being the ultimate outcome. In Scotland its a completely different situation. What you are talking out is the SNP holding on to the vast majority of their seats and with a handful of "marginals" coming into play - which include the remaining three unionist seats, BTW. I don't doubt that Eilidh Whiteford will come under some pressure in Banff and Buchan but I can't see it being the wipe out you're predicting. I wouldn't like to predict the outcome from the Northern Isles as I think they are quite different from other parts of the country. One thing that strikes me there is that the personal reputation and integrity of the individual candidates are very important. Has Alastair Carmichael done enough locally in the last 18 months or so to repair his trashed reputation, I don't know. I know that both Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur were returned in the HR elections but my understanding is that they both distanced themselves from him. Who the SNP choose as their local candidate will be interesting, obviously won't be Danus Skene who fought Carmichael last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 13 hours ago, stocky said: will scunnered move from Dalry to Liverpool... Anyhoo, where is scunnered.... Chased off the board by CyberNatz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Was he not a MMA expert hard case? I doubt he would be chased off this board or anywhere but especially by cybernatz. He left because all his predictions were wrong and were about to come to fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 https://grousebeater.wordpress.com/2017/04/22/england-the-oil-thief/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eisegerwind Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 11 hours ago, Parklife said: Chased off the board by CyberNatz. I presume CyberNatz is a generalisation and not a username. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Maybe in denial but not buying it Britain Elects @britainelects Scottish Westminster voting intention: SNP: 43% (-7) CON: 28% (+13) LAB: 18% (-6) LDEM: 9% (+1) (via Survation / chgs with GE2015) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: Maybe in denial but not buying it Britain Elects @britainelects Scottish Westminster voting intention: SNP: 43% (-7) CON: 28% (+13) LAB: 18% (-6) LDEM: 9% (+1) (via Survation / chgs with GE2015) John Curtice predicting 12 seats for the Tories! https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855883991324479488 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 (edited) Going by my analysis of the 2015 General Election it can only possibly be from these constituencies. And in the majority of them they would need to rely on; 1 - All of the Unionist vote going to the Tories 2 - Those that voted SNP in 2015 not doing so in 2017 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway East Renfrewshire Edinburgh North & East Edinburgh South West Edinburgh West North East Fife Ochil & South Perthshire Paisley & Renfrewshire North Paisley & Renfrewshire South Stirling West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Edited April 22, 2017 by Ally Bongo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Saw a rumour that the Sunday Times poll has the Tories on 33%!!! That would kick out the likes of Angus Robertson, Joanna Cherry, Tasmina A-S, some high profile SNP casualties! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Plus the polling was done before this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 And the polling sample was shite Panic over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheres the pies Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: And the polling sample was shite Panic over FTP thats feck the polls btw after 2015 shenanigans can we trust them ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 46 minutes ago, Toepoke said: Saw a rumour that the Sunday Times poll has the Tories on 33%!!! That would kick out the likes of Angus Robertson, Joanna Cherry, Tasmina A-S, some high profile SNP casualties! Seems right enough... https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/855919265756696577?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^teet The last time the Tories polled that high in Scotland was when Ted Heath was leader! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Toepoke said: Seems right enough... https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/855919265756696577?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^teet The last time the Tories polled that high in Scotland was when Ted Heath was leader! What's the poll sample ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 If Scotland is now a Nationalist/Unionist fight with Labour & the Lib Dems falling by the wayside we shouldnt be surprised if the Tory vote was 33% Still think it's probably shite though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Whilst the emergence of the Tories is pretty remarkable I wouldn't say this is a blow to independence. Labour voters surely must realise that the only way for them to influence political and economic thinking in Scotland is through indpendence and complete seperation from the Westminster Labour Party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 I would snap your hand off for that,i said anything over 35 seats for the snp...i know sum on here think im a closet tory which I certainly am not,, sturgeon seems to have annoyed a lot of the electorate,,, especially brexit voters or those who did not care either way about brexit,her constanf grandstanding and patronising of the electorate will backfire,,,, from a personal point of view sturgeon has been very damaging to the party, isolating long term mambers ...how anyone on here does not acknowledge this I really dont know... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 And yet if you want a bet on the SNP winning EVERY seat in Scotland the price is only 3/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 (edited) 8 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: If Scotland is now a Nationalist/Unionist fight with Labour & the Lib Dems falling by the wayside we shouldnt be surprised if the Tory vote was 33% There seems to be an increasing percentage of the electorate who are happy to let the Tories sh*te in their mince if it means putting the boot into the SNP. 1 hour ago, EddardStark said: Whilst the emergence of the Tories is pretty remarkable I wouldn't say this is a blow to independence. Labour voters surely must realise that the only way for them to influence political and economic thinking in Scotland is through indpendence and complete seperation from the Westminster Labour Party. Many Labour voters have realised that and moved to the SNP. They now seem to be losing voters to the Tories though. Not in as big a number, but certainly the kind of Labour people for whom Unionism was the chief concern are switching from red to blue. Edited April 23, 2017 by Toepoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 I dont think it will happen I think the Tories will buy her off But if Gina Miller stands against Theresa May in Maidenhead and Labour and the Lib Dems pull out to make it a two way fight a few gasses will be at a peep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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