SNP leadership election

[Clyde1998]

17 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

She has to win

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-tories-fear-kate-forbes/

I'd guess, however, Labour may be more content with her than the Tories. Kate Forbes is likely less in-line with the former-Labour vote in West-Central Scotland than Sturgeon - so may open up more chances for Labour to recover.

I imagine the Green deal will come to an end should she win; I felt that deal was more a political stunt to provide greater emphasis to the independence majority at Holyrood. The Greens would still likely support the SNP on a case-by-case basis - similar to the situation in the previous parliament.

[Hertsscot]

18 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

 

I wouldn’t be too unhappy if she wins.  The greens have already said they don’t want her and it may be the end of the coalition 😬.

Not massively disappointed if the coalition ends. There's a perception, rightly or wrongly, that the Green ministers are not particularly competent. Forbes is probably not as left wing as I would like on the economy but as far as I can tell she is genuinely committed to independence and I actually saw her on one of the Edinburgh marches pre-Covid.

[TDYER63]

2 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

I'd guess, however, Labour may be more content with her than the Tories. Kate Forbes is likely less in-line with the former-Labour vote in West-Central Scotland than Sturgeon - so may open up more chances for Labour to recover.

I imagine the Green deal will come to an end should she win; I felt that deal was more a political stunt to provide greater emphasis to the independence majority at Holyrood. The Greens would still likely support the SNP on a case-by-case basis - similar to the situation in the previous parliament.

Thats a fair point re Labour. I suppose though, any independence supporter who will move to Labour for this reason is not really committed to independence anyway. Again its an example of people only wanting independence on their terms. 

[Malcolm]

16 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Not massively disappointed if the coalition ends. There's a perception, rightly or wrongly, that the Green ministers are not particularly competent. Forbes is probably not as left wing as I would like on the economy but as far as I can tell she is genuinely committed to independence and I actually saw her on one of the Edinburgh marches pre-Covid.

I met her when she had her previous role in digital skills, and she was impressive.  I think she would do well.  Whoever gets the job will have a bumpy start as I suspect will have to juggle a partly divided party, decreasing polling and having to potentially drive legislation without support from the greens.  Getting through that will be the challenge.

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

So - are those that were sure it would be a stitch up to let Robertson win going to shut the fuck up for a bit now that another of their conspiracies has been busted ?

the conspiracies are true as you will soon realize and are the reason he isnt standing..

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said:

Must have been. 
Not quite sure what you mean. 

sorry that came across shitty, just say he has a few skeletons to come out  

[weekevie04]

I've never really like Humza. He can come across as arrogant (some might say confidence) but I doubt he'll win anyone on the fence over regards independence.

Don't know enough about Forbes - if she can keep her religious views away from her voting record, then why not? Also, a FM who speaks Gàidhlig would wind up the right people. Would she be liked in the central belt?

Ash Regan - Cherry/Alba crew. Would enough Alba people rejoin to vote for her?

Whatever happens, independence is on the back burner for a long while - just like we don't hear anything about Catalonia.

The UK supreme court and government can almost do what they want, and Scots will just accept it.

Edited February 20, 2023 by weekevie04

[aaid]

19 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

the conspiracies are true as you will soon realize and are the reason he isnt standing..

 

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I doubt it.  They'll probably use him not standing as proof of his venailty.

Right on time.

[Malcolm]

2 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

I've never really like Humza. He can come across as arrogant (some might say confidence) but I doubt he'll win anyone on the fence over regards independence.

Don't know enough about Forbes - if she can keep her religious views away from her voting record, then why not? Also, a FM who speaks Gàidhlig would wind up the right people. Would she be liked in the central belt?

Ash Regan - Cherry/Alba crew. Would enough Alba people rejoin to vote for her?

Whatever happens, independence is on the back burner for a long while - just like we don't hear anything about Catalonia.

The UK supreme court and government can almost do what they want, and Scots will just accept it.

the resolution to this is to build up overwhelming support for independence and then take on the Uk government with a policy that has enormous popularity in Scotland…. Ie not GRR.  Centerist policies are the the way to achieve this.

[Squirrelhumper]

1 hour ago, Clyde1998 said:

I'd guess, however, Labour may be more content with her than the Tories. Kate Forbes is likely less in-line with the former-Labour vote in West-Central Scotland than Sturgeon - so may open up more chances for Labour to recover.

I imagine the Green deal will come to an end should she win; I felt that deal was more a political stunt to provide greater emphasis to the independence majority at Holyrood. The Greens would still likely support the SNP on a case-by-case basis - similar to the situation in the previous parliament.

They gained most that labour vote based on indy. I know nobody who moved from Labour to snp who would ever vote Labour again unless they were at least neutral on indy.

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Ash Regan - Cherry/Alba crew. Would enough Alba people rejoin to vote for 

They can’t rejoin and vote, electorate was closed on 15 February.

It’s early days yet but to date Forbes and Yousaf are starting to pick up a stream of MSP and MP endorsements, Regan has picked up one, Joanna Cherry.   We can see what happens to political parties where the membership votes in a leader who has no support in the parliamentary party - see Corbyn and Truss for examples.  I wonder if she will withdraw.  

[aaid]

8 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

They gained most that labour vote based on indy. I know nobody who moved from Labour to snp who would ever vote Labour again unless they were at least neutral on indy.

Indeed, there will always be some, but in general terms the SNP are not losing votes to Labour, where there is leakage, it is to the Greens.  

The thing that is going unmentioned in the recent polls is that the Green vote is creeping up and there is only one place that is coming from.  That of course doesn’t support people’s narratives that the SNP are losing votes because of GRR and because of their deal with he Greens  

I saw a seat breakdown on one recent poll which had the Greens and Tories level on 16 seats, Greens doing well to pick up two seats in each region.  They are polling at record levels. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by aaid

[phart]

8 minutes ago, aaid said:

Indeed, there will always be some, but in general terms the SNP are not losing votes to Labour, where there is leakage, it is to the Greens.  

The thing that is going unmentioned in the recent polls is that the Green vote is creeping up and there is only one place that is coming from.  That of course doesn’t support people’s narratives that the SNP are losing votes because of GRR and because of their deal with he Greens  

I saw a seat breakdown on one recent poll which had the Greens and Tories level on 16 seats, Greens doing well to pick up two seats in each region.  They are polling at record levels. 

Forbes will leak more votes to the greens if she wins, i assume it will be a bit of movement all round but that will be the main flow. Doubt it will be huge amounts. Can't see the votes crossing the unionist/nationalist divide.

[86glebestreet]

First time she backs out of anything she will be known as KFC 

[Ally Bongo]

22 minutes ago, aaid said:

They can’t rejoin and vote, electorate was closed on 15 February.

It’s early days yet but to date Forbes and Yousaf are starting to pick up a stream of MSP and MP endorsements, Regan has picked up one, Joanna Cherry.   We can see what happens to political parties where the membership votes in a leader who has no support in the parliamentary party - see Corbyn and Truss for examples.  I wonder if she will withdraw.  

She would be wise to withdraw and give her support to Forbes for a ministerial post or even deputy in return

 

[phart]

I was looking at Katie Forbes trending tweets and saw this.

Misogynistic attacks due to her faith? I guess you could try and squeeze some semantic coherence out of that. John Mason get's it tight too though.

[Ally Bongo]

Lamia does not like The Forbes for some reason

Maybe The Forbes is a covert Rangers fan

 

 

 

[Ally Bongo]

14 minutes ago, phart said:

I was looking at Katie Forbes trending tweets and saw this.

Misogynistic attacks due to her faith? I guess you could try and squeeze some semantic coherence out of that. John Mason get's it tight too though.

Blackford is part of the same church/faith and at no time did they make anything about it when they easily could have

[scotlad]

2 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

Just spotted that.  Fairly certain she will win the contest.

You just hope that the wider public can ignore the media and opposition howling at the moon about her faith. I’m sure the arch enemies of the opposition will go all in to try and use it to taint her, as has already started. Hopefully nobody in the leadership campaign is dirty enough to have a go about it.  

People should judge her on her actions, capabilities and politics/policies. If the middle ground and undecided voters give her a fair crack of the whip I’m sure she can do very well. 

It's actually quite despicable how people have used her faith as a stick to beat her with.  There isn't a chance they'd use Humza Yousaf's religion against him - and nor should they.  Apparently Ian Blackford is also a member of the same church as Kate Forbes - something I wasn't even aware of until the other day.  Again, never raised as an issue, as far as I can remember.

Forbes has not shown any inclination to roll back on policies that might be expected to jar with her faith, e.g. same sex marriage, and in any case, we have a party political system in this country, not a presidential one, so it isn't as if she'd be able to put things through parliament of her own accord anyway.

I'm pleased that she's standing but I hope for her sake she's got plenty of support in place outside work as well as within the job.  

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I doubt it.  They'll probably use him not standing as proof of his venailty.

"Scoop" Murray is busy editing Stewart McDonald's emails - watch this space!  🕵️‍♂️

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

So - are those that were sure it would be a stitch up to let Robertson win going to shut the fuck up for a bit now that another of their conspiracies has been busted ?

Aye, but what aboot all the other stuff. 😉 😉

[phart]

42 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Blackford is part of the same church/faith and at no time did they make anything about it when they easily could have

Who is "they"?

[Ally Bongo]

29 minutes ago, phart said:

Who is "they"?

Those against Scottish Independence

Unionists, London Media, Quislings and 5th Columnists

Not forgetting the SNP party establishment

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ally Bongo

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, phart said:

Forbes will leak more votes to the greens if she wins, i assume it will be a bit of movement all round but that will be the main flow. Doubt it will be huge amounts. Can't see the votes crossing the unionist/nationalist divide.

greens require the snp vote more than the snp need the greens,, 

[phart]

2 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Those against Scottish Independence

Unionists, London Media, Quislings and 5th Columnists

Not forgetting the SNP party establishment

I've not been paying attention what any of those groups have said. Although the last 2 sound like partisan rhetoric.

Didn't Blackford agree with abortion and same sex marriage while Forbes has disagreed or demurred? So there's a substantive difference in how the particular creation myth they subscribe to manifests in policy. Which might be the reasoning behind some of the criticism.

I'm not a member of the SNP, nor do I vote for them normally. So it's a question for those groups to worry about,

[phart]

2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

greens require the snp vote more than the snp need the greens,, 

To get policy enacted? That's definitely true. SNP are the much more massive parlimentary party.

That's not what was being discussed though, what was being discussed was the transfer of votes between independence voters.

The SNP dad is bigger than the green dad though, you're right.