Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[Orraloon]

18 minutes ago, Regenmann said:

 

My politics have been slightly right of centre for nigh on 40 years and they most closely match my own values (individual freedom and personal responsibility being high up there) - I don't come from Tory territory - brought up in a council house in Darnley.

Do you admit it to your pals? I must know quite a few Tories but I've yet to meet one who will admit it. I had noticed one or two sticking their noses out of the closet saying stuff like, "I would never vote Tory but....... I quite like that Ruth Davidson". Those folk have retreating back into the closet with the door firmly shut since they became the Rape Clause Party though. 

[PapofGlencoe]

On 5/1/2017 at 0:03 PM, Orraloon said:

I wonder who these "senior Commission sources" are? Is this Cliffe geezer a trustworthy source. 

I can just about imagine this level of naivety from politicians but the civil service must be involved as well. They can't possibly be this ignorant? Or does May just not listen to them?

That reads almost like a comedy sketch from the Daily Mash.

 

seems mildly hammed up to me.

She wants as good a deal as she can get.  Going in delusional high is not the final destination.

As far as I can see all she's said is let's make Brexit a success.  If the EU are hellbent against that it's their prerogative.

I'm fiercely European and wanted to remain in the EU but let's not believe everything from one side.  The Croatian criteria pile of notes is a total red herring and makes Junker look silly as well.

[Caledonian Craig]

Also Regenmann do you mean May's antics and values are something you hold an apathy with? A woman (even that is stretching it a bit) who you cannot believe as she is a habitual liar. Do you honestly trust that to handle Brexit negotiations?

Edited May 2, 2017 by Caledonian Craig

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, PapofGlencoe said:

seems mildly hammed up to me.

She wants as good a deal as she can get.  Going in delusional high is not the final destination.

As far as I can see all she's said is let's make Brexit a success.  If the EU are hellbent against that it's their prerogative.

I'm fiercely European and wanted to remain in the EU but let's not believe everything from one side.  The Croatian criteria pile of notes is a total red herring and makes Junker look silly as well.

Sorry but the clues on what sort of a creature May is are there.

The disdain that she treated Scotland over another referendum with all this 'now is not the time' pish but yet a couple of weeks later it is time for a general election? And lest we forget she ruled out a snap election and then totally u-turned on it. I worry everytime her lips move - it is bound to be a lie.

[PapofGlencoe]

4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Sorry but the clues on what sort of a creature May is are there.

The disdain that she treated Scotland over another referendum with all this 'now is not the time' pish but yet a couple of weeks later it is time for a general election? And lest we forget she ruled out a snap election and then totally u-turned on it. I worry everytime her lips move - it is bound to be a lie.

I agree on all of the above.  My comment was purely about the EU dinner thing which, to me, seems like a bag of pish.

May being in a different galaxy to Junker is no surprise.  It's not incompetent either.  Could equally say the EU are on a different planet as well.

 

Edited May 2, 2017 by PapofGlencoe

[Caledonian Craig]

32 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I agree on all of the above.  My comment was purely about the EU dinner thing which, to me, seems like a bag of pish.

May being in a different galaxy to Junker is no surprise.  It's not incompetent either.  Could equally say the EU are on a different planet as well.

 

Right so the different planet the 27 EU nations are on (one for so long inhabited by the UK) is the one that is being unreasonable whilst the one nation led by a terribly green PM is the one being reasonable? No I don't see it that way at all. She is a power freak - that much is clear. Going by these latest accounts she went into talks thinking she'd be calling the shots on what would be debated, what would and would not be up for grabs etc etc and she got rebuked as Juncker is acting on behalf of the 27 EU Nations. And this just isn't about the leaks about the dinner meeting as even BBC and other journalists have sensed a strained tension between both parties. May's claim that it is no more than 'Brussels gossip' is hardly a denial either. I have seen nothing in May that makes me believe anything she says or does.

 

Edited May 2, 2017 by Caledonian Craig

[DonnyTJS]

33 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Right so the different planet the 27 EU nations are on (one for so long inhabited by the UK) is the one that is being unreasonable whilst the one nation led by a terribly green PM is the one being reasonable? No I don't see it that way at all.

 

I'm looking forward to your take on the negotiation process when Scotland is leaving the UK ...

PapofGlencoe is right, this is all the predictable crap of any negotiation. Those in power in the EU are trying to hold a bloated, recalcitrant 'union' together, and making it easy for a UK exit was never going to be part of the deal. They are not going to be any more 'reasonable' than the UK. It's way too early to predict what the end game will look like.

[Regenmann]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Do you admit it to your pals? I must know quite a few Tories but I've yet to meet one who will admit it. I had noticed one or two sticking their noses out of the closet saying stuff like, "I would never vote Tory but....... I quite like that Ruth Davidson". Those folk have retreating back into the closet with the door firmly shut since they became the Rape Clause Party though. 

Absolutely.

As with supporters of other parties I don't agree with every policy - with politics it's always the 'least worst' choice.

[Regenmann]

2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Also Regenmann do you mean May's antics and values are something you hold an apathy with? A woman (even that is stretching it a bit) who you cannot believe as she is a habitual liar. Do you honestly trust that to handle Brexit negotiations?

Edited May 2, 2017 by Regenmann

[Ally Bongo]

Tereeza was visiting a factory in Cornwall today & is seemingly at it again.

Reporters were shut in a room and banned from watching or presumably asking questions

[Orraloon]

2 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Tereeza was visiting a factory in Cornwall today & is seemingly at it again.

Reporters were shut in a room and banned from watching or presumably asking questions

Is it a leather trooser factory and that is the fitting room?

 

[aaid]

23 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

I'm looking forward to your take on the negotiation process when Scotland is leaving the UK ...

PapofGlencoe is right, this is all the predictable crap of any negotiation. Those in power in the EU are trying to hold a bloated, recalcitrant 'union' together, and making it easy for a UK exit was never going to be part of the deal. They are not going to be any more 'reasonable' than the UK. It's way too early to predict what the end game will look like.

While a lot of this is clearly pre-negotiation positioning from both sides and time will tell how things will transpire I think there are a couple of key differences in the approach the Scottish Government would take in any future Independence negotiations with the rUK and that apparently being taken by the UK government with respect to Brexit.

It looks to me as if what the UK is trying to achieve is having the major benefits of the being in the EU with none of the apparent downsides, ie, having your cake and eating it.

For the Scottish Government, while they'll no doubt want to achieve the best possible deal they can, I suspect that because they will go in with the absolute firm belief that Scotland is much better off being out of the U.K. than in it they won't be that concerned about retaining the benefits of the U.K. as there's a hell of a lot more benefits in being out. People who don't support Indy don't see it that way of course but they won't be the ones carrying out the negotiations.

The key difference is that for Scotland, being Independent is more important by orders of magnitude than  the UK leaving the EU.  You can argue about percentages and in reality it's not something you could empirically measure but if you asked the question of how much power and control does the EU Institutions have over Westmister, and by definition the population of the UK the answer is "some".   

If you look at the same question and ask how much power and control does Westminster have over Holyrood then the answer is "lots", in fact technically, it's "100%" as even with revolution, power devolved is power retained.

I'd say that the UK government is in serious danger of over-promising and under-delivering on what is achievable in the deal with the EU.  I suspect that's one of the reasons they've called the election, to get an increased majority to quash any opposition in the Commons and five years to hopefully, hopefully, ride out the worst of the Brexit fallout. 

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, DonnyTJS said:

I'm looking forward to your take on the negotiation process when Scotland is leaving the UK ...

PapofGlencoe is right, this is all the predictable crap of any negotiation. Those in power in the EU are trying to hold a bloated, recalcitrant 'union' together, and making it easy for a UK exit was never going to be part of the deal. They are not going to be any more 'reasonable' than the UK. It's way too early to predict what the end game will look like.

Normally, I'd say yes all these recent rumours were stuff blown up out of all proportion but these claims are even backed up by the pro-May journalists. Even they have picked up on pertinent points that say there is truth to the leaked atmosphere at the dinner talks. And the fact that May herself never came out and totally denied the rumours says to all and sundry that there is truth in the leaks. Now British media itself has been sucking up to May so I see no reason why they'd report the way they have over this unless they are concerned as well.

As for how the Scottish negotiations go if they exit the UK I share aaid'd views on that front.

[Haggis_trap]

The problem with the UKs opening stance is that we want to cherry pick the bits of the EU we like.
However (unlike Norway, Iceland or CH) we are not prepared to swap free movement of people or pay into the EU for access to these benefits.
We want free movement of goods / services and capital but not people.
Basically the UK wants 3 out of 4 free movements without paying the membership fee.

Parallels can be drawn with Greek election.
Tspiras was elected by making promises he couldn't keep.
He told voters Greece would remain in Euro but not make further debt repayments to EU.

[PapofGlencoe]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

While a lot of this is clearly pre-negotiation positioning from both sides and time will tell how things will transpire I think there are a couple of key differences in the approach the Scottish Government would take in any future Independence negotiations with the rUK and that apparently being taken by the UK government with respect to Brexit.

It looks to me as if what the UK is trying to achieve is having the major benefits of the being in the EU with none of the apparent downsides, ie, having your cake and eating it.

For the Scottish Government, while they'll no doubt want to achieve the best possible deal they can, I suspect that because they will go in with the absolute firm belief that Scotland is much better off being out of the U.K. than in it they won't be that concerned about retaining the benefits of the U.K. as there's a hell of a lot more benefits in being out. People who don't support Indy don't see it that way of course but they won't be the ones carrying out the negotiations.

The key difference is that for Scotland, being Independent is more important by orders of magnitude than  the UK leaving the EU.  You can argue about percentages and in reality it's not something you could empirically measure but if you asked the question of how much power and control does the EU Institutions have over Westmister, and by definition the population of the UK the answer is "some".   

If you look at the same question and ask how much power and control does Westminster have over Holyrood then the answer is "lots", in fact technically, it's "100%" as even with revolution, power devolved is power retained.

I'd say that the UK government is in serious danger of over-promising and under-delivering on what is achievable in the deal with the EU.  I suspect that's one of the reasons they've called the election, to get an increased majority to quash any opposition in the Commons and five years to hopefully, hopefully, ride out the worst of the Brexit fallout. 

It seems to me to be far more complicated to leave than it is to join.  I'm sure the approach matters but Brexit just is hard dealing. 

Apart from Security what else does Britain hold over the EU?  The EU will look to punish the UK (unreasonable but it's what they want to do).  They're heading for no deal.  

 

 

 

[Haggis_trap]

^ I don't think the EU is trying to punish the UK.  They said themselves that Brexit (i.e exiting worlds biggest single market) is punishment enough.

The biggest risk for EU is giving UK a cherry-picked deal : in which case organisation collapses as other members will leave.
They have no option but to play politics - much like UK did when it voted to leave.

 

Edited May 2, 2017 by Haggis_trap

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

It seems to me to be far more complicated to leave than it is to join.  I'm sure the approach matters but Brexit just is hard dealing. 

Apart from Security what else does Britain hold over the EU?  The EU will look to punish the UK (unreasonable but it's what they want to do).  They're heading for no deal.  

 

Trade, the EU sells more goods and services  to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, about £60bn a year.

So on the surface it would look like it would be in the EU's best interests to negotiate a tariff free trade deal.

 
However, its not as simple as all that.

UK exports to the EU are worth about 13-15% of the UK economy whereas exports from the rest of the EU to the UK is only worth about 3-4% of their economy.

So while in £-terms, trade would seem to be more important to the EU than the UK, a bad trade deal - or no trade deal - would be more damaging to the UK rather than the EU economy.

[Caledonian Craig]

11 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

^ I don't think the EU is trying to punish the UK.  They said themselves that Brexit (i.e exiting worlds biggest single market) is punishment enough.

The biggest risk for EU is giving UK a cherry-picked deal : in which case organisation collapses as other members will leave.
They have no option but to play politics - much like UK did when it voted to leave.

 

Absolutely.

By all accounts the UK wants the benefits of being in the EU but is not willing to pay for it. It is only to be expected that won't go down well with the EU members. After all why should they pay into the EU and the UK not yet they get the same terms. Sorry it just doesn't work like that.

[PapofGlencoe]

20 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Absolutely.

By all accounts the UK wants the benefits of being in the EU but is not willing to pay for it. It is only to be expected that won't go down well with the EU members. After all why should they pay into the EU and the UK not yet they get the same terms. Sorry it just doesn't work like that.

 

34 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

^ I don't think the EU is trying to punish the UK.  They said themselves that Brexit (i.e exiting worlds biggest single market) is punishment enough.

The biggest risk for EU is giving UK a cherry-picked deal : in which case organisation collapses as other members will leave.
They have no option but to play politics - much like UK did when it voted to leave.

 

Agreed.

They can't give the UK a good deal so none of the parties are going into this with a good strategic goal or even good faith to be honest.

I don't believe the UK wants it's cake and eat it.  The establishment do.  I think a lot of people genuinely were prepared to pay the price to leave.  Whether they will regret that is what we will find out.  

[Caledonian Craig]

5 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

 

Agreed.

They can't give the UK a good deal so none of the parties are going into this with a good strategic goal or even good faith to be honest.

I don't believe the UK wants it's cake and eat it.  The establishment do.  I think a lot of people genuinely were prepared to pay the price to leave.  Whether they will regret that is what we will find out.  

If you were to ask the chief reason Brexit was voted for a lot would say it was to stop immigrants getting into the country. Well they will be disappointed then as I am sure May has already said nothing on the immigration front would change.

[Regenmann]

25 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

 

Agreed.

They can't give the UK a good deal so none of the parties are going into this with a good strategic goal or even good faith to be honest.

I don't believe the UK wants it's cake and eat it.  The establishment do.  I think a lot of people genuinely were prepared to pay the price to leave.  Whether they will regret that is what we will find out.  

Yip, I voted Leave (and it had absolutely zero to do with immigration) but I'm realistic - of course there will be downsides.

[Caledonian Craig]

6 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Sorry but the clues on what sort of a creature May is are there.

The disdain that she treated Scotland over another referendum with all this 'now is not the time' pish but yet a couple of weeks later it is time for a general election? And lest we forget she ruled out a snap election and then totally u-turned on it. I worry everytime her lips move - it is bound to be a lie.

And today she adds to it. A few days ago she said she wouldn't be giving a running commentary or talking about the talks and now she comes out and says what she'll be like in negotiations. 

[FuNsTeR]

On 2017-4-30 at 11:50 PM, Ally Bongo said:

ORB polling for the Telegraph - Fieldwork 26/27 April

SNP 46%

Tories 26%

Liebour 17%

Fib Dems 7%

The Express is claiming that poll has the Tories ahead of the SNP and the way the Telegraph has their article worded you would think the Tories are ahead until you read the stats

[DonnyTJS]

8 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

If you were to ask the chief reason Brexit was voted for a lot would say it was to stop immigrants getting into the country. Well they will be disappointed then as I am sure May has already said nothing on the immigration front would change.

And yet you tell us that every time she opens her mouth it's bound to be a lie. You seem to lack the capacity for nuance.

I didn't say that negotiations for Scotland's exit from the UK would follow the same lines as the UK's exit from the EU (although there will of course likely be similarities in terms of both sides briefing against the other and opening above where they are willing to settle), I was musing on the likely stance your posts would take in that scenario.

[Caledonian Craig]

6 hours ago, DonnyTJS said:

And yet you tell us that every time she opens her mouth it's bound to be a lie. You seem to lack the capacity for nuance.

I didn't say that negotiations for Scotland's exit from the UK would follow the same lines as the UK's exit from the EU (although there will of course likely be similarities in terms of both sides briefing against the other and opening above where they are willing to settle), I was musing on the likely stance your posts would take in that scenario.

Personally, I'd just be so cock-a-hoop to be rid of Westminster rule. I'd expect hardballing from Westminster in the negotiations so expectations would be totally tempered on that front. At the end of the day whether it is Scottish Independence or Brexit it all comes at a cost. Depending on everyone's own opinion it comes down to whether or not it is a cost worth paying.

Edited May 3, 2017 by Caledonian Craig