Auld_Reekie Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Hmmm. That is completely at odds with a conversation I had this morning. Unless Yes figured there was no reason to take it public and have effectively binned. Keeps people motivated and focused and defers the result to the next poll which sounds like it's in the field already and ready by Sunday or early next week - more confidence if result is repeated and timing is better. Even great polls dont have to be published. Campaign going great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littleboyblue Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Could be clever use of words by Yes Scotland referring to the numbers with DKs included i.e. still under 50% (and therefore no majority) and only translating in to a majority when DKs excluded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 3, 2014 Author Share Posted September 3, 2014 Hmmm. That is completely at odds with a conversation I had this morning. It's at odds at what I've been told, as well. I can only assume it's going to come out by Sunday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 3, 2014 Author Share Posted September 3, 2014 Could be clever use of words by Yes Scotland referring to the numbers with DKs included i.e. still under 50% (and therefore no majority) and only translating in to a majority when DKs excluded. That would be logical. The no vote is rarely about 50% now including DKs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Guy who started the rumour has quashed the rumour. Does he work for BT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auchinyell Sox Change Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 read the youguv poll/survey was carried out on just over 1000 people - not sure how many they use typically to get a fair cross-section i do recall watching the flashy tv coverage after 92 general election -newsnight ? - first real use of modern graphic technology exit polls had the labour romping home - we all know what happened though also check out the polls before the quebec 1995 vote ; which ended up being won by a baw hair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Severin Carrell. What a fud! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 read the youguv poll/survey was carried out on just over 1000 people - not sure how many they use typically to get a fair cross-section i do recall watching the flashy tv coverage after 92 general election -newsnight ? - first real use of modern graphic technology exit polls had the labour romping home - we all know what happened though also check out the polls before the quebec 1995 vote ; which ended up being won by a baw hair All the polls just now are on roughly 1k of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Oh Yes he will! Oh no he won't! Oh yes he will! Oh... This Panelbase mystery poll to be released tonight? A welsh Tory MP just Tweeted this Guto Bebb @GutoBebb Rumours that an opinion poll this evening will show a Scottish Yes poll lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 (edited) i do recall watching the flashy tv coverage after 92 general election -newsnight ? - first real use of modern graphic technology I do worry that this may be a repeat of 92 as well. Utterly deflating evening that.... Edited September 3, 2014 by Toepoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilser Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 That 47 to 53 % poll the other night really is a game changer. David Cameron is now being urged to postpone next year's scheduled general election, which would involve repealing the law that his own government introduced. You've also got Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservative Party taking the extraordinary step in a live tv debate of stating that the Tories were unlikely to win the next UK general election, presumably to sway referendum voters not to vote Yes as a way of avoiding being governed by Tories. Crazy stuff... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newryrep Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Do not peak too soon a lot can happen in a week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Agreed. Really need to hold off another week. This is too early. HOOOOLLLDDD! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maq Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Agreed. Really need to hold off another week. This is too early. HOOOOLLLDDD! HOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLDDDDDDDDD...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 It looks like this poll doesn't exist, really want to see one though from Panelbase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 It does smell like a BT spoiling tactic. Now if they do release a good poll from panelbase showing yes 2 points behind it'll be spun into a failure and deflate a lot of excitement and enthusiasm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faddy'sMrs Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 It looks like this poll doesn't exist, really want to see one though from Panelbase. Ive now completed 2 for Panelbase in the last week-10 days so it does exist, but the fact they are doing another looks like someone wants to keep the first one private - or else even they dont believe the results themselves so are asking again :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 No matter what way we cut it, it's better in the bin. If it's a Yes lead, we lose a lot of underdog status and lose focus for next week or so. If it's still a No lead, that would be a very bad result given the YouGov poll, general feel of momentum and the fact that Panelbase is one of the most Yes friendly pollsters. Sunday Herald sound like they have their front page cover sorted for a week Sunday with a referendum special in the works so I wouldn't be surprised if a Yes lead (if it exists) is being timed for this Sunday and give them an exclusive. Ideally though, I'd prefer not to have any lead until we are into last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frew Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Opportunity to use the front page of the Record tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 speaking of facebook the likes for better together and Yes Scotland has seen a surge in the last few weeks jumping from 56 to 58% YS 240,944 (58%) BT 174,729 (42%) YS - 248137 ( 58.2% ) + 0.2% BT - 178177 ( 41.8% ) - 0.2% the margin is increasing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damo Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Opportunity to use the front page of the Record tomorrow This. With editorial control of the Record tomorrow - it would be a good way of getting maximum exposure of a positive panelbase poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Certainly rumours about on Twitter that the Record will be leading with a Panelbase poll showing a Yes lead but Im very suspicious that some Labour types are tweeting it. I get the impression they are actively trying to set high expectations often now for Yes in order to try and disrupt momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 (edited) Ladbrokes suspend betting on the next Panelbase IndyRef poll showing YES in lead. Edited September 4, 2014 by Flure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Ladbrokes suspend betting on the next Panelbase IndyRef poll showing YES in lead. It was 3-1 stuck four quid, twenty three pence on it earlier on. No was 2/5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Certainly rumours about on Twitter that the Record will be leading with a Panelbase poll showing a Yes lead but Im very suspicious that some Labour types are tweeting it. I get the impression they are actively trying to set high expectations often now for Yes in order to try and disrupt momentum. You mean like before the Euro election, so it could be spun as 'SNP fail to win third seat...'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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