Auld_Reekie Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Exactly like that. I think they bounced Henry McLeish into a corner using the same trick. Actually seems to be gaining credibility so might be some truth in it, but LabourList and Hothersall were both retweeting the Panelbase rumour which suggested they were pushing expectations up, or thought they could bounce the poll out or into the bin. Either way, we're at a point now where the rumours have been so prominent that if Panelbase doesn't show a lead, it's a major kick in the staines for the good guys. Think there's no way an internal Panelbase poll now would be released unless it shows a lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Exactly like that. I think they bounced Henry McLeish into a corner using the same trick. Actually seems to be gaining credibility so might be some truth in it, but LabourList and Hothersall were both retweeting the Panelbase rumour which suggested they were pushing expectations up, or thought they could bounce the poll out or into the bin. Either way, we're at a point now where the rumours have been so prominent that if Panelbase doesn't show a lead, it's a major kick in the staines for the good guys. Think there's no way an internal Panelbase poll now would be released unless it shows a lead. If that kind of tactic is all they have left they're in a pretty bad place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe545 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Rumour of a one point lead for yes in the latest panelbase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Surely it has to be a minimum of 2%, unless we're looking at 59.5%/60.5%. If so I would guess it's a one point lead without the don't knows stripped out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Rumour of a one point lead for yes in the latest panelbase Rumours from where? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Rumours from where? Here Rumour of a one point lead for yes in the latest panelbase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Here Haha! Nothing like using yourself as a source! ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I just hope folk are not getting too over confident. Loads of work still needs to be done to help persuade folk to get out on the 18th and put their X in that YES box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Dont think there is over confidence (much). I guess its just the anticipation of the first poll (apart from the "dodgy" one) to show a Yes lead. People have waited a long time for it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alt-Del Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I just hope folk are not getting too over confident. Loads of work still needs to be done to help persuade folk to get out on the 18th and put their X in that YES box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Another YouGov poll coming out on Sunday in the Sunday Times. If this is close the excrement will hit the fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 (edited) Another YouGov poll coming out on Sunday in the Sunday Times. If this is close the excrement will hit the fan. So soon?? You can only assume that it's a 'corrector' funded by the daily mail with questions such as "do you agree that scotland should become the fat salmond pol pot republic of bananas?" Edited September 5, 2014 by thewelk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 So soon?? You can only assume that it's a 'corrector' funded by the daily mail with questions such as "do you agree that scotland should become the fat salmond pol pot republic of bananas?" and if it shows a closing of the margin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 and if it shows a closing of the margin? I'd be very surprised if the Sunday Times are running with a poll that shows a closing of the margin, especially if they are trailing it this far out. Sounds like it might be a slight drop in the last poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Its been well known that the Sunday Times will be running with a poll this weekend, and then another yougov during the week. Hence, cant read anything into it whether its going to be a good poll or not (IMO). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Haha! Nothing like using yourself as a source! ;-) Who does he think he is, the UK Government?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattywin Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Who does he think he is, the UK Government?!?! hahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/507919150187290624 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Bad for yes? Hope not. would really like to see it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Smithson is a Tory. And not a pleasant one at that (are there any other kinds?). Simply: 1) We dont know for sure who commisioned the Panelbase poll 2) If it was Yes Scotland, it could have showed no change or a small insignificant slip, and hence not released to preserve the "momentum" 3) It could still have shown a huge Yes lead, at which Id also be concerned about releasing it. Frau Tarantula always warns me about peaking too soon :-) If, however, it did show a lead, other polls nearer the time will also show a Yes lead, giving No less time to react 4) It still might be fecking released My guess - the changes in panelbase are not going to be anywhere near as massive as those from Yougov. Chances are it kept Yes at 48% or possibly 47%, which isnt exactly bad for Yes. We will get a couple of polls which show Yes in the lead before the 18th. Im pretty sure of that - even if its just random error. Folk just need to get out and get the work done (while I sit on a train heading to Dortmund having a beer) ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I honestly think that if it showed a massive surge for yes it would have been released to build on the momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 It wouldnt have been a massive surge though. 2 points maximum either way. Momentum can be as easily lost as it is gained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I'm not sure about these polls. The media are always all over them for a story. Narrowing polls build excitement, which sells papers and increases website views. I wouldn't be surprised if we get one w/c 15th Sept saying 50/50. Although hope I'm just being suspicious and YES are actually romping it of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilly71 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Ach well, here's my aim wee poll. Canvassing tonight in Cambuslang , 15 yes, 3 no and 2 undecideds (one of whom was a 70% yes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I was speaking with a well-known footsoldier and campaigner in Renfrew who was telling me of an area which has consistently recorded 45% Yes, last week returned 75%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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