Cove_Sheep Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 George Eaton @georgeeaton 19m YouGov poll in tomorrow's Times puts Scottish Yes just six points behind (gap was 18 in July) http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article4193736.ece … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Don't Knows splitting 2:1 to yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redz Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Don't Knows splitting 2:1 to yes. Where are you getting that from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Where are you getting that from? A couple on "poll analysists" on Twitter. The tables are revealed at 10pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo87 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Over / under has moved to 45.5 now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It's looking more and more like whichever side gets their vote out, will win it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redz Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Over / under has moved to 45.5 now In simple terms, wtf does that mean Donaldo? I cannae be the only fecker that disnae understand this. Maybe I am though....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo87 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 In simple terms, wtf does that mean Donaldo? I cannae be the only fecker that disnae understand this. Maybe I am though....... In simple terms it's a good thing...but do you not listen?! I might not be 100% accurate but to me it implies what the bookies think the yes percentage will be and then you take the position of it being over or under that; usually at odds of just under evens. It moving towards 50 is a good thing. I'm sure the market started out at 40 or less. Then again it could just mean people are lumping on it being over and they are adjusting their position accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 A Yougov poll on this level would mean Survation showing a result in favour for YES. Time to build on this further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5873443/McSqueaky-bum-time.html?CMP=SOC-Sun-Twitter-11_20_2013-191-0-0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It could also be yougov just catching up. The Kellner correction stuff is believable to a certain extent.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonny Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) If we get a poll that shows Yes edging towards 50% (or even going past the nearer we get to the 18th), how do you think people will react? Will it galvanise and mobilise No to get their vote out? or will Yes get a boost and urge anybody who is in two minds to take the 'risk' (in their minds) and vote Yes? I think the more Yes is seen as 'normal', the more undecided folk will follow. I think stacks of Yessers are just waiting to unleash those Yes posters in their windaes and show what's happening, they're just biding their time. The first hint of a +ve Yes vote, and I'd hope that would be next week if not this, after we get a result in Dortmund folk will tend to Yes. I really hope. Edited September 1, 2014 by Jonny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) Stunning. The rise of Yes, and the demise of No in YouGov polls. Edited September 1, 2014 by Stapes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damo Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The problem BT have is that they have very little grassroots campaign to help get their vote out. Yes have been co-coordinating for months now at a local level. The closer we get the more that will help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirkintoddy Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Gone ten now wheres the new poll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5873443/McSqueaky-bum-time.html?CMP=SOC-Sun-Twitter-11_20_2013-191-0-0-0 53-47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Gone ten now wheres the new poll? The YouGov poll we've been talking about was the poll, but we should have the data tables now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Any more word on the undecideds and where they are more likely to swing to as that could make a massive difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 What's the sample size and methodology? Always suspicious of polls - they can, and are, manipulated to show the desired result to suit. A tightening return just now makes good press. I wouldn't be surprised if on the 17th we get a poll showing 50/50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Usual Yougov methodology and usual sample size. Nothing different with this poll compared to their normal ones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 still no sign of the data tables, wanting to see where the shift has come from. My bet is women have moved more to YES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintydave Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Got 7.2 on betfair last Monday, fair old shift in just a week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonny Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 James Kelly's immediate take on it: http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Few unionists getting pretty annoyed on my Facebook feed tonight. Do people not have anything else to discuss than this referendum? Can't wait till it's over!" etc etc etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 If we get a poll that shows Yes edging towards 50% (or even going past the nearer we get to the 18th), how do you think people will react? Will it galvanise and mobilise No to get their vote out? or will Yes get a boost and urge anybody who is in two minds to take the 'risk' (in their minds) and vote Yes? There is a school of thought that people like to be associated with winners. That people who have been unsure and have been reluctant to vote Yes because it would be a losing vote, would see the polls and decide that it might be a winner after all and vote to be part of the winning side. Things are going pretty much in line with what Yes strategists have been working to for the past two years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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