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Couple of Scotland wide polls just published on WM voting intention.  Useful as we haven’t had any for a while.

They both show similar results.   SNP vote is essentially unchanged, Labour vote is substantially up and Tories substantially down. 

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27 minutes ago, thplinth said:

It would not matter how many seats the post 2014 SNP won. As we have seen over and over again...Even if they won them all they are gutless.

Nonsense

Winning them all is one thing - it is all about how many votes Unionist parties get

AFAIK at the last election it was roughly 50/50 between Pro Independence and Pro Union votes - or a bawhair around that

This is the crux and why the SNP have been "cautious"

That being said we are at a point where i doubt anyone will forgive them if they kick the can down the road again

If we lose now we deserve everything we get

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2 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Nonsense

Winning them all is one thing - it is all about how many votes Unionist parties get

AFAIK at the last election it was roughly 50/50 between Pro Independence and Pro Union votes - or a bawhair around that

This is the crux and why the SNP have been "cautious"

That being said we are at a point where i doubt anyone will forgive them if they kick the can down the road again

If we lose now we deserve everything we get

I would agree. Of course how many seats the SNP gets matters, it will be seen as a far better indicator of independence than a raft of opinion polls. However if they aren't serious about independence then they could lose support very quickly and time may well be running out for them. Sturgeon needs to think about her legacy, how will she be remembered, nationalist hero who led Scotland to independence or someone who betrayed the hopes of a nation?

 

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Liz Truss. Just curious. Why didn't she take her husband's name when she got married? She was only 27 and by no means a name that people had heard of. Am I being over sceptical if 'Liz O'Leary' might not have gone down too well with some Conservative (and Unionist) voters? 

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BBC News - The students who stole the Stone of Destiny
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-63130942

 

How the actual fuck can you steal something that belongs to Scotland in the first place. English royalty of the time the Stone was stolen from Scotland are the thieves. 

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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14 hours ago, aaid said:

Couple of Scotland wide polls just published on WM voting intention.  Useful as we haven’t had any for a while.

They both show similar results.   SNP vote is essentially unchanged, Labour vote is substantially up and Tories substantially down. 

Ian Murray has outdone himself with his interpretation. 

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2 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Whats that bellend been gibbering about this time?

Apparently the SNP are furious that the recent polling shows them picking up and additional 5 seats in WM.  It’s quite some spin.

 

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20 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Nonsense

Winning them all is one thing - it is all about how many votes Unionist parties get

AFAIK at the last election it was roughly 50/50 between Pro Independence and Pro Union votes - or a bawhair around that

This is the crux and why the SNP have been "cautious"

That being said we are at a point where i doubt anyone will forgive them if they kick the can down the road again

If we lose now we deserve everything we get

At the last WM election the SNP got 45% of the vote and the Greens about 1%. These recent polls echo that. If that was reflected on polling day it would likely result in dozens of SNP seats but as their vote share is below 50% it wouldn't be enough to meet their self-imposed test for a pro-independence vote (assuming it is run as a plebiscitary vote).

I understand their logic for setting the bar that high but I fear they would likely fail, especially if it looks likely - as it increasingly does - that the Tories are on their way out. Soft Noes and even soft Yesses might plump for Labour in the hope of seeing a short-term improvement without the perceived "risks" of voting for independence.

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6 hours ago, scotlad said:

At the last WM election the SNP got 45% of the vote and the Greens about 1%. These recent polls echo that. If that was reflected on polling day it would likely result in dozens of SNP seats but as their vote share is below 50% it wouldn't be enough to meet their self-imposed test for a pro-independence vote (assuming it is run as a plebiscitary vote).

I understand their logic for setting the bar that high but I fear they would likely fail, especially if it looks likely - as it increasingly does - that the Tories are on their way out. Soft Noes and even soft Yesses might plump for Labour in the hope of seeing a short-term improvement without the perceived "risks" of voting for independence.

The problem with 'short-term improvement' is simply that, it's short term. I thought Thatcher was the worst but I think Johnson and Truss have been appalling. Scotland could get out of it once for all, it's difficult to understand why a rational person wouldnt opt for that choice. Chances are if Labour get in next time they could inherit a mess from the Tories, get blamed when they don't manage to sort it out and get kicked out in five years time.

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On 10/5/2022 at 9:10 PM, Hertsscot said:

Liz Truss. Just curious. Why didn't she take her husband's name when she got married? She was only 27 and by no means a name that people had heard of. Am I being over sceptical if 'Liz O'Leary' might not have gone down too well with some Conservative (and Unionist) voters? 

LOL would certainly have been appropriate initials for her to use...

 

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13 hours ago, Hertsscot said:

The problem with 'short-term improvement' is simply that, it's short term. I thought Thatcher was the worst but I think Johnson and Truss have been appalling. Scotland could get out of it once for all, it's difficult to understand why a rational person wouldnt opt for that choice. Chances are if Labour get in next time they could inherit a mess from the Tories, get blamed when they don't manage to sort it out and get kicked out in five years time.

I agree with you 100%.  I think it's unlikely the Tories will go for an early election so we'll most probably be stuck with them for another two years at least - plenty of time for them to fuck things up even more (either by accident or design) leaving Labour to inherit a mess which they will struggle to improve let alone resolve over the course of a parliament.

Scotland could, of course, as you say, free itself from the perennial Ren & Stimpy show of British politics for good, but the trouble is a lot of people in Scotland have as much vision and foresight as Mr Magoo in a pair of sunglasses trying to find his around in a power cut.  Many people will assume that replacing Truss and her dodgy cabal of spivs and speculators with Starmer and his more managerial team will get us back in business but that is underestimating just how much damage has been caused over the past five or six years.

Twelve years ago I thought the Tories winning the 2010 election might push more people towards independence but it didn't. That government was a model of competence compared to what he have now and yet, the polls are still neck and neck.  This makes me think that where we are is maybe an "us" problem - by which I mean the independence movement - as much as anything.

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6 minutes ago, scotlad said:

 

Twelve years ago I thought the Tories winning the 2010 election might push more people towards independence but it didn't. That government was a model of competence compared to what he have now and yet, the polls are still neck and neck.  This makes me think that where we are is maybe an "us" problem - by which I mean the independence movement - as much as anything.

For me it runs far deeper than that. 

I have said it before that for generations now there has been systematic brainwashing through the media and from our very own education. It was taught into us about the greatness of the British Empire and the union like it was some sort of Shangri-La or Heaven. It was all that was pure with the world. As we grow up the education we got was re-inforced by the media telling us the same thing. Of course not everyone was duped by this as some Scots were brought up by independence seekers who'd instill Scotland's history into us whilst others would research or stumble across the real clues out there and realise the union is one big con job. Unfortunately, there are a heck of a lot of people who prefer to believe the union is pure and wonderful perhaps through loyalties instilled in them by generations of ancestors who allow no other thought process.

It is a painfully slow process to change minds due to the union being engrained into so many's psyche but it has been changing since the early 1980s. Support for independence has doubled in those 40 years but we are merely just about at the tipping point. We need to go far further than that to really nail down independence in my opinion.

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