Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[weekevie04]

That poll is a sub sample.

[Orraloon]

8 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

That poll is a sub sample.

Aye, 152 people. These polls should be banned IMO. Waste of space.

[aaid]

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Aye, 152 people. These polls should be banned IMO. Waste of space.

I wouldn't ban them.  They're part of larger UK wide polls and so it's good to at least see that they are getting a proportionate regional balance in the poll.

That said, I wouldn't pay much attention to a single subsample but looking at trends across them can be useful but still not as good as a Scotland wide full poll.

TBH, though, the U.K. Is now really split in three as far as politics is concerned.  There are different dynamics at play in England & Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland that you wonder how much benefit UK wide polls are.

[Orraloon]

8 minutes ago, aaid said:

I wouldn't ban them.  They're part of larger UK wide polls and so it's good to at least see that they are getting a proportionate regional balance in the poll.

That said, I wouldn't pay much attention to a single subsample but looking at trends across them can be useful but still not as good as a Scotland wide full poll.

TBH, though, the U.K. Is now really split in three as far as politics is concerned.  There are different dynamics at play in England & Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland that you wonder how much benefit UK wide polls are.

I meant all opinion polls. They are not designed to measure public opinion, they are designed to influence and change public opinion. I never trust opinion polls, especially when they are telling me what I want to hear.

[Parklife]

Another good day for Labour. 

May publicly embarrassed by a member of the public who's been hurt by the Tories treatment of the recipients of disability benefit. While the Tories have been exposed as making deals with UKIP in order to stop them standing candidates in some seats. 

[TDYER63]

16 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Banff plamfs?

 

 Do you ever wish you had not not bothered with a google search? ?

[Ally Bongo]

I am almost certain,and stand to be corrected, that by the eve of the General Election the MSM, and in particular the BBC, will have announced specifically which candidate to vote for in each seat to oust the SNP.

The ball started rolling a week and a half ago on Newsnight and it is increasing momentum

[exile]

I was thinking about the 'story of the day' about Nicola Sturgeon saying a vote for SNP will strengthen the Scottish hand when negotiating Brexit. To some extent that's in danger of being unclear, as to how that leverage would actually be applied. But then, what do Labour and the Lib Dems offer?

Unless you believe they will actually win the general election, then their position on Brexit is just a protest vote. A vote for the SNP might also be seen as a protest vote, as they are not going to be part of the British Gov. But in a sense its power as a protest vote works because locally (in Scotland) it comes to represent the majority view of a nation's MPs. Whereas the same protest lodged in Labour and Lib Dems can be dismissed as a minority, indeed, rejected view, across the UK as a whole.

[Ally Bongo]

BBC Radio Scotland, Good Morning Scotland, is interviewing the party leaders each day this week and Nicola was first this morning.

Gary Robertson tweeted last night that she would be on and there were umpteen tweets asking him to stick to the General Election and avoid Scottish Parliament devolved matters & Indyref/Scotref etc

He started off by asking about the Computer hack and what steps were being taken

Then moved onto the fishermen, as that seems to be main driving force of Scotland's econcomy, and staying in the EU if Scotland was Independent

Then asked would you stay in the EU or be outside in the EEA, EFTA if Scotland was Independent

Then asked what currency an Independent Scotland would use

Thats how they work but the BBC is definitely not biased.

In her 10 minute interview on the Andrew Marr show, 8 minutes was spent on Scottish education - so much so that she eventually had to say to him that she was not there to defend the recent bad reports and that they were tackling it

 

[Toepoke]

Seems like a contradiction in terms to me?...

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15287485.Nationalism_and_patriotism_very_different__says_Ruth_Davidson_in_attack_on_SNP/

 

[Haggis_trap]

14 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Seems like a contradiction in terms to me?...

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15287485.Nationalism_and_patriotism_very_different__says_Ruth_Davidson_in_attack_on_SNP/

 

The inconvenient truth for Ruth Davidson is that the Tory vision of Brexit is nationalistic to the point of restricting migration.
She is basically arguing that her own nationalistic preference / ideal is better....
Dangerous territory.

 

 

[hampden_loon2878]

To start with i thought sturgeon knew what she was doing and had a plan,, i now think she has no real plan and has became rattled as if she has just realised that she has pissed off a good bit of the party's  supporters.. regardless of what anyone says aboot the local elections it was a bit of a bloody nose for the party,, and a wake up call,, the posturing from sturgeon of late gives out the signals of a worried leader, maybe internal polling has her worried ied.Here's my prediction for the next polling. Snp 39% toriex 32% 

Edited May 16, 2017 by hampden_loon2878

[vanderark14]

11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

To start with i thought sturgeon knew what she was doing and had a plan,, i now think she has no real plan and has became rattled as if she has just realised that she has pissed off a good bit of the parties supporters.. regardless of what anyone says aboot the local elections it was a bit of a bloody nose for the party,, and a wake up call,, the posturing from sturgeon of late gives out the signals of a worried leader, maybe internal polling has her wirried.Here's my prediction for the next polling. Snp 39% toriex 32% 

what has changed your mind regarding sturgeon? is it just a feeling or are you swallowing the tory media bull shit?

[Haggis_trap]

^ Every political party is split on issue of Brexit.
However I would say the SNP (and its members) have a more unified stance than LAB or CON ?

Brexit has destroyed the Labour party down south.  Corbyn has no stance on the biggest issue in UK politics.

The Tories give an illusion of unity - but not far below the surface they are split on direction country is taking.
If Theresa May offers free movement OR brexit leads to economic crash expect a leadership challenge no matter how big their majority.
 

[Ally Bongo]

36 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

To start with i thought sturgeon knew what she was doing and had a plan,, i now think she has no real plan and has became rattled as if she has just realised that she has pissed off a good bit of the party's  supporters.. regardless of what anyone says aboot the local elections it was a bit of a bloody nose for the party,, and a wake up call,, the posturing from sturgeon of late gives out the signals of a worried leader, maybe internal polling has her worried ied.Here's my prediction for the next polling. Snp 39% toriex 32% 

You were doing so well lately until this utter drivel

 

[Parklife]

40 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

To start with i thought sturgeon knew what she was doing and had a plan,, i now think she has no real plan and has became rattled as if she has just realised that she has pissed off a good bit of the party's  supporters.. regardless of what anyone says aboot the local elections it was a bit of a bloody nose for the party,, and a wake up call,, the posturing from sturgeon of late gives out the signals of a worried leader, maybe internal polling has her worried ied.Here's my prediction for the next polling. Snp 39% toriex 32% 

 

29 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

what has changed your mind regarding sturgeon? is it just a feeling or are you swallowing the tory media bull shit?

HampdenLoon gets all his facts from Tory fishermen in Bannf and Buchan, who he for some reason thinks represent the views of Scotland as a whole. 

[hampden_loon2878]

25 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

what has changed your mind regarding sturgeon? is it just a feeling or are you swallowing the tory media bull shit?

Maybe the propaganda has to do with it,, throw enough shit and all that,,she just needs to put her vision forward and thats it, whether it be full eu membership, efta ect,,,  to joe average it would come across as her changing her mind,, with all the talk of efta, referendums, EU, seat at the brexit table, and single market without appreciating the complexity of the situation..

[vanderark14]

2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Maybe the propaganda has to do with it,, throw enough shit and all that,,she just needs to put her vision forward and thats it, whether it be full eu membership, efta ect,,,  to joe average it would come across as her changing her mind,, with all the talk of efta, referendums, EU, seat at the brexit table, and single market without appreciating the complexity of the situation..

politicians change their minds all the time, the current PM changes her mind more times than I have had hot dinners. The media are doing a great job, a small amount of people are buying into the tory bollocks and where you and I come from there is a vocal minority championing the tory line, especially among fishermen. These fishermen are in for a big shock when brexit happens. 

[antidote]

10 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

You were doing so well lately until this utter drivel

 

Maybe this.

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/moray/1243342/moray-brexit-leader-backs-robertson/

[hampden_loon2878]

16 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

You were doing so well lately until this utter drivel

 

?? maybe your right,, but as you are aware every little detail is scrutinised to death  when it comes to the snp so being clear  on the direction of the party is essential 

[Bristolhibby]

24 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

politicians change their minds all the time, the current PM changes her mind more times than I have had hot dinners. The media are doing a great job, a small amount of people are buying into the tory bollocks and where you and I come from there is a vocal minority championing the tory line, especially among fishermen. These fishermen are in for a big shock when brexit happens. 

Just on the Fisherman subject.

Even a blind man can see that they will be sold down the river as part of a deal to protect passporting in the City of London. Their stance seems more like straw clutching.

If they believe the London Conservatives offer them the best defence of their industry, then god help them.

J

[Ally Bongo]

I got a row for posting a subsample poll on Sunday - but James Kelly tweeted another one last night from ICM - SNP 49% Tories 26%

Today the subsample is from panelbase - SNP 56% Tories 20%

 

The Tories wont get anywhere near 30% never mind over it

[Alibi]

That nationalism/patriotism keech from Ruthless Tank Commander really takes the biscuit.  Why is British nationalism patriotism and thus good but Scottish internationalism is bad?  She really is a nasty piece of work with her courting of the WATP Queen's XI tendency such as that Buchan bigot.  She should be getting slaughtered for her volte face on Brexit and on the single market, plus her U turn on prescriptions should be flagged up as a devolved matter and thus irrelevant to this election.  In a decent society with a fair minded press and TV, she would be getting laughed at, not promoted as the messiah.

[DaveyDenoon]

22 hours ago, Parklife said:

Another good day for Labour. 

May publicly embarrassed by a member of the public who's been hurt by the Tories treatment of the recipients of disability benefit. While the Tories have been exposed as making deals with UKIP in order to stop them standing candidates in some seats. 

May will be furious that this frightful sub-human space-wasting specimen was allowed within 100 yards of her, never mind allowed to actually converse with her.

Heads will roll.

[aaid]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Maybe the propaganda has to do with it,, throw enough shit and all that,,she just needs to put her vision forward and thats it, whether it be full eu membership, efta ect,,,  to joe average it would come across as her changing her mind,, with all the talk of efta, referendums, EU, seat at the brexit table, and single market without appreciating the complexity of the situation..

It's pretty straightforwards and there's no contradiction in what NS and the SNP have been saying.  There are three very different scenarios that are being deliberately twisted by the opposition parties to try and create a sense of confusion in the electorate.  

1. SNP policy since the 1980s is for an independent Scotland to be a full member of the European Union.  That hasn't changed and NS etc., are very consistent in expressing this.

2. As part of compromise proposals - dismissed by the UK government - the Scottish government suggested single market membership for Scotland.   That would translate to an EEA or EFTA membership.  It's important to understand that this is in the context of Scotland not being independent but remaining part of the UK.  A very different scenario from 1.  This is probably dead in the water now.

3. The possible scenario the if Scotland votes for Independence there may be an undetermined period between the UK - and Scotland as part of that - leaving the EU and an independent Scotland joining the EU as a full member.   That is largely outwith the control of the Scottish government as it depends on a. how and when the Brexit negotiations conclude with the EU; b. when a second referendum on Indy takes place and c. how and when the "divorce" negotiations between the rUK and Scotland conclude.   That may out of necessity may involve joining EFTA first as a stepping stone to full EU membership.   What NS is doing is setting expectations now about how that may go about, this is what she talked about when she said earlier that they would lay out the plan for how Scotland would rejoin the EU.   My own view is that going into the first independent Scottish Parliamentary elections, Scotland will be outwith the EU - possibly in EFTA - and that one of the main issues in that election will be whether or not to join the EU as a full member.  I don't think there will be - or will be any need for - a separate referendum.