Indyref 2 (2)

[Ally Bongo]

Plenty London commentators being rolled out to tell everyone about Scottish Politics

[Northern Light]

1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said:

Exactly. Anyone thinking that unionist parties can’t muster deep pockets to see off the SNP here is wishful thinking. They’ve been awaiting this opportunity 17 years. 

Labour have the momentum and will be the big winners here in a GE.

Lots of twists and turns to come like you say though. I do wonder if we could end up in some NI style stalemate where WM have to intervene to run SG business. They’d love that! 
 

The reason I say that is that if nobody will back SNP in a minority admin (if they win most seats m) after a GE - it might also be tricky for the unionist parties. While in Scotland I’m sure the Lab/Con/Lib ‘better together’ crew would love a coaltion at Holyrood to see off the SNP, their Westminster bosses won’t allow Labour to go near the Tories. Realistically, Labour prob need enough seats between them, Libs and Greens to form a coalition. Otherwise, I don’t know how the numbers work for anyone but there’s a long way to go before we get to that point. 

Yes there is no chance of a formal arrangement between Labour and Tories and as you say a Labour coalition with Libs and Greens, who have already said they will hook up with anyone who will put them in power, is the most likely scenario until the next elections are due in 2026. If that gives a majority then there will still be a push on identity politics from the Greens to which many in Labour will be sympathetic but I would imagine the Libs will not support. If it's a minority coalition (most likely outcome I would imagine) then very little legislation will pass over the next two years due to various entrenched positions in the SNP/Tories although there will have to be compromise to get the budget through. Overall I would imagine the next two years will be pretty shambolic and as long as the SNP are sensible(?) and choose Forbes I think that would give them a great chance of regaining the FM position in 2026 (by which time as well as nothing being achieved in Scotland we will likely have had 18 months of Starmer under delivering in WM).

[PapofGlencoe]

 Funny how things change.  when SNP won by one seat in 2007 it wasn't questioned they had right to government. When SNP have nearly more than all parties combined, something that we're unlikely to see any other party succeed in doing, there are folk calling for an election.  Scottish parliament is going to be a difficult place to create stable government in that case.

Edited April 29 by PapofGlencoe

[TDYER63]

47 minutes ago, phart said:

They wanted to dictate what SNP priority policies should be. Now you might agree with what the priority policies should be, and if you do then ALBA is a great place for your vote.

I can see why other folk disagreed though.

 

I hope, if able, Forbes takes over folk see it won't make much difference on the big issue of independence.

The gradualist approach was the correct approach. Everything was too entenched you need time for the actual population to shift , Brexit might have been a catalysing event to change people's minds pretty ropey though. If impatience had ruled the day and we somehow got another referendum, again there is no mechanism for this outside being given permission but let's just pretend, it would have been lost as well.

 

Obviously the current FM wasn't up to the job but neither is Forbes, some anachronistic product of Oxbridge and Edinburgh. She's smart will she even want the job at the current state of affairs?

I agree with all of this. However I think Kate Forbes has the ability to steady things and oversee policies that would appeal to a wider range of people, and in turn increase support. Increasing support is the ONLY long term way of independence succeeding.
My concern however is that she is not ‘ likeable’ enough , there is something about her that I cant put my finger on. 

My patience with the SNP is being tested. If it transpires that they have rejected Alba’s support for no good reason I will seriously consider my membership. At very best I will refuse to campaign for them. I only joined SNP for independence, if they reject the only other party who has this as a priority then they are not for me. 

[phart]

3 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I agree with all of this. However I think Kate Forbes has the ability to steady things and oversee policies that would appeal to a wider range of people, and in turn increase support. Increasing support is the ONLY long term way of independence succeeding.
My concern however is that she is not ‘ likeable’ enough , there is something about her that I cant put my finger on. 

My patience with the SNP is being tested. If it transpires that they have rejected Alba’s support for no good reason I will seriously consider my membership. At very best I will refuse to campaign for them. I only joined SNP for independence, if they reject the only other party who has this as a priority then they are not for me. 

She's fine and just cause i think something doesn't mean it is right. She might do really well. However views are entrenched on independence , only time will move the landscape really. Which is done by young people getting older. Which is why young peoples concerns about things were getting aired. The older folk 3 generations above them don't understand that it's always the case that 3 generation gaps never think about the world the same. So you end up in a culture war "woke" blah di blah.

The problem is does Forbes appeal to generations that are not yet entrenched in their views or not. I think for every "older person" she brings in it will be matched by a "younger person" going out.

Hard to say anything concrete though. Always liable to just spout pish where politics are concerned everything is so opaque around it.

[TDYER63]

16 minutes ago, phart said:

She's fine and just cause i think something doesn't mean it is right. She might do really well. However views are entrenched on independence , only time will move the landscape really. Which is done by young people getting older. Which is why young peoples concerns about things were getting aired. The older folk 3 generations above them don't understand that it's always the case that 3 generation gaps never think about the world the same. So you end up in a culture war "woke" blah di blah.

The problem is does Forbes appeal to generations that are not yet entrenched in their views or not. I think for every "older person" she brings in it will be matched by a "younger person" going out.

Hard to say anything concrete though. Always liable to just spout pish where politics are concerned everything is so opaque around it.

This is true ( gaining support in one demographic and losing in another) , probably similar to the Brexit situation where independence support rose in pro EU people but reduced in anti EU .

In Scotland though we still have an older generation and I think the more ‘woke’ policies are harder to implement , particularly when we have a media happy to distort  information. I cannot claim to truly understand all the science , arguments and nuances around transgender for example but its been an easy win for the ‘ anti woke’ as neither does most of the population . Too much focus has been placed on it I think at this particular stage. Easy for me to say though when I am not affected in any significant way by it. 

Tbh I am glad something is happening , I feel we have just been sleep walking for years, this is a massive juncture, the SNP really need to consider the bigger picture . 

[Och Aye]

It's going to be John Swinney.

[Ally Bongo]

1 minute ago, Och Aye said:

It's going to be John Swinney.

As a prelude to Angus Robertson

[Haggis_trap]

Yousaf resigning is all about:
a) getting Greens back on board
b) keeping the Sturgeon camp of SNP on control of party

Quite frankly I am astonished that Yousaf has not made proper effort to do a deal with Alba. Their demands (commitment to independence and reversal on more controversial policy like gender reform) were fall less onerous that what Greens expect.
Of course, given the timing (Murrells recent arrest) cynics may suggest this has become all about keeping certain people out of jail for their corrupt role in Salmond trial?

Certainly Yousaf falling on his own sword is all about ensuring his camp maintain full control of the SNP party.
By resigning he has pandered to Green Party demands to have a say in who Scotlands FM should be.
Though ironically Labour and Conservatives have helped Greens (by tabling VONC in FM but not government itself).

[Squirrelhumper]

His lack of self awareness, as ever, during that speech was remarkable. 

[Hertsscot]

26 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

Yousaf resigning is all about:
a) getting Greens back on board
b) keeping the Sturgeon camp of SNP on control of party

Quite frankly I am astonished that Yousaf has not made proper effort to do a deal with Alba. Their demands (commitment to independence and reversal on more controversial policy like gender reform) were fall less onerous that what Greens expect.
Of course, given the timing (Murrells recent arrest) cynics may suggest this has become all about keeping certain people out of jail for their corrupt role in Salmond trial?

Certainly Yousaf falling on his own sword is all about ensuring his camp maintain full control of the SNP party.
By resigning he has pandered to Green Party demands to have a say in who Scotlands FM should be.
Though ironically Labour and Conservatives have helped Greens (by tabling VONC in FM but not government itself).

Do we know what Alba's demands were?

[Dave78]

1 hour ago, phart said:

 

The problem is does Forbes appeal to generations that are not yet entrenched in their views or not. I think for every "older person" she brings in it will be matched by a "younger person" going out.

 

Right, but you have to consider likelyhood to vote. Old folk are orders of magnitude more likely to vote than younger people.

[hampden_loon2878]

37 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

It's going to be John Swinney.

The sturgeonites are petrified that KF gets in, John swinney and Andy’s Robertson are up to their eye balls in the salmond saga 

[scotlad]

3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Well those who voted humza in were warned, now hopefully they see the bin fire sturgeon has left, humza seems a ok lad just hadn’t it in him, never had or will. 
 

best case scenario, KF elected, have a WM election first then onto a holyrodd election. Snp remain biggest party but will be a minority.

worst case, holyrood election called imminently 

What those SNP members who voted to promote a man with a track record of fucking-up every job in government he's ever had expected by giving him a role with even more responsibilities and even more opportunities to fuck-up I do not know.

Even his resignation speech was painful.

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Plenty London commentators being rolled out to tell everyone about Scottish Politics

Do none of them honestly know that the Scottish parliament has a PR system, meaning minority administrations are actually the norm??  They keep emphasising "minority government!" as if it's some kind of gotcha.

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, Och Aye said:

It's going to be John Swinney.

Final paragraph 🤦‍♀️ 

[Hertsscot]

52 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Do none of them honestly know that the Scottish parliament has a PR system, meaning minority administrations are actually the norm??  They keep emphasising "minority government!" as if it's some kind of gotcha.

Difficult to work out whether it's incompetence or malevolence.

[phart]

1 hour ago, Dave78 said:

Right, but you have to consider likelyhood to vote. Old folk are orders of magnitude more likely to vote than younger people.

I'm not sure how more likely they are but it wont even be 1 order of magnitude more. I'm trying to get some information on voter turnout stratified by age but can't find anything, bar 16-17 year olds had almost 80% in one tracked election. It dipped after that: https://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/assets/doc/Votes at 16 in Scotland.pdf

 

 

You also have to adjust who they vote for too though if we're going to actually run the maths on it.

2021 election

16-34 had 58% for SNP 5% for others (green,alba etc)

55+ had 38% for SNP 0% for other.

So younger folk are 50+% more likely to vote for SNP

 

Edited April 29 by phart

[Malcolm]

this has the potential to be a disaster if another green loving candidate replaces yousaf.

 

[Ally Bongo]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joanna Cherry KC

 

@joannaccherry

 

John Swinney is hugely respected across our party but the lesson of the last year is that the SNP needs a complete reset. We must go forward not backwards. Kate was right when she said that continuity would not cut it. The next leader must deliver change.

Edited April 29 by Ally Bongo

[RanelaghScot]

I like John Swinney as a government minister but his name getting put forward is like when a managerial vacancy comes up in Scottish football and the Open All Mics team starts bumming up one of their own like Billy Dodds or Jim Duffy.

[hampden_loon2878]

Swinney is up to his neck in the salmond scandal, keep clear of him 

[mariokempes]

6 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Swinney is up to his neck in the salmond scandal, keep clear of him 

Which means it probably will be him...need to keep the bodies hidden.  Not to mention  his knowledge of missing funds

[DoonTheSlope]

5 hours ago, LoganRoy said:

Goodbye, good riddance and get to fuck. 

He should never darken Holyrood's dooe ever again.

 

Absolutely

The moment he stepped off that plane from Qatar (which happens to be where Hamas leaders are based) after meeting the Iranians MI5 should have been all over him

He's a threat to national security

[DoonTheSlope]

20 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Swinney is up to his neck in the salmond scandal, keep clear of him 

 Calamity John

[StirlingEgg]

13 minutes ago, DoonTheSlope said:

Absolutely

The moment he stepped off that plane from Qatar (which happens to be where Hamas leaders are based) after meeting the Iranians MI5 should have been all over him

He's a threat to national security

That accolade should be reserved for Call Me Dave on his luxury jet mystery tour...Securing arm sales? Some natural resources? Trying to make China/Russia jealous? Just photo ops?...