Northern Light

That would be my feeling as well so how have they managed to get it so wrong? Is it a turnout issue (SNP supporters less likely to vote than Labour in a GE at the moment) or something else?

So are we thinking that the large Survation poll carried out over the last couple of weeks suggesting 41 SNP seats, 14 to Labour and 2 to LibDem is way off the mark?

I would imagine he will sit tight as he and his fellow racists and loonies will be running the tories after the next election under likely Braverman as leader

Great thanks, just done the same for me and my son and set up as friends and family so all worked okay. Not sure it will be that simple come next Tuesday though!!

I got the first email but not the follow up one, same for my son. I would appreciate someone posting a copy of the email with instructions on setting up your account please

Sadly it's all a bit irrelevant as anyone who thinks that Netanyahu will pay the slightest bit of attention to what Westminster votes (or doesn't vote) for is kidding themselves. The only voice they will listen to is the US and I'm not even sure they will do that anymore.

I wouldn't wish for anyone to be injured but could be a blessing in disguise for us as I rate Shankland and Fraser (if he has got his head straight) as better players anyway

No it won't, Labour are going to stroll to a large majority. Whilst Starmer is deeply uninspiring I think you underestimate how much the Tories are despised by a huge majority of englandshire. There will be even more tactical voting than ever to defeat Tory candidates combined with the real loony wing of the Tories voting Reform instead.

Unless we win the opening match 😂

Yes it feels like the SFA are cashing in at our expense knowing they will likely sell out. An increase of 16% or 20% for one less competitive game than last year in a less meaningful tournament and one more friendly, neither of which are particularly exciting games

It's also on Viaplay 1

Thanks @Dave78. Long time lurker but given so much happening in both the football and political world this year I thought I should finally take the plunge!!

I do share your concern that Humza will try to cling on post the GE unless there is a real meltdown in the SNP vote share that is not yet showing in opinion polls. Any sort of tight outcome with Labour won't cause him to quit and I'm not sure what the mechanism would be for him to be pushed out given the control of the National Executive that Sturgeon put in place. Even if he is forced out or quits I'm sure the Sturgeon supporters will look to put another loyalist in place, whether it is an Angus Robertson (if he wants to stand this time) or a Mairi McAllan or someone else (the choice of quality candidates from that wing of the party is incredibly thin). I would imagine Kate will stand again. I would also imagine that Stephen Flynn will have a good hard look at how he can get into the race. I think the other wildcard in all of this is whether Operation Branchform ever comes to a conclusion and if so whether anyone from the Sturgeon wing is charged with a crime. If that happens then I think that kills off any challenger from that wing of the Party. The oil and gas opinion poll I was reading about (it's actually an opinion poll about a variety of Scottish issues including politics) was by Survation for True North. I have no idea if it is reliable or not I'm afraid

You may be right on what happens post a GE and maybe its wishful thinking on my part but there are a few straws that I clutch to assuming Kate is the new leader The story around the 2024 GE will be all around getting rid of the Tories and whether we like it or not Independence will be a sideshow and people will vote accordingly (so switch to Labour or just not bother to vote). Whereas the story around the 2025 HR election will have Independence front and centre and again I expect people to vote accordingly (so switch back to SNP or come out to vote again), 2025 is a more favourable electorate with 16/17 year olds voting as well as European nationals living in Scotland. People will be much less inclined to vote Green with their list vote as SNP will be much less definite FPTP seat winners Despite SNP's best/worst endeavours to shoot themselves in the foot Independence is still holding at around 50% so the core SNP vote is still there - despite what anybody says there is absolutely no other route to Independence that doesn't flow through the SNP Labour in WM with a majority will be a huge disappointment in what they don't deliver/change as they will inherit a terrible situation wherever you look with a leader who just let's himself be blown by whatever direction the wind is blowing. Anas would compare unfavourably to Kate when they go head to head I should have been clearer in my post on timing of how I think Kate should approach things. I think her priorities for the 18 months leading up to HR elections should be twofold. Firstly would be to convince all YES voters that the SNP are fully focused on delivering independence (there are so many people I speak to think that the current SNP are far more interested in being and staying on the gravy train than in delivering independence). Secondly to persuade as many as possible of the soft NO voters that the SNP are once again a competent governing party focused on what the majority of voters are interested in (as was the case in the Salmond years) and are not a Government only interested on fringe issues that the majority of voters have way down their list of priorities. I would NOT even begin to address the challenging independence issues like currency until after another five year term is secured as I don't think that's what will win or lose an election in 2025, it's NOT what the majority of voters have as a high priority when deciding who to vote for. It IS what will be necessary in the subsequent five years to move the soft NO's into being soft YES's. This post is already too long (sorry about that) but one final thought on oil and gas. What you describe as moving to renewables whilst continuing to use fossil fuels is eminently sensible but that's not what the Scottish electorate hear from the SNP/Green Government - they hear Rosebank BAD, Cambo BAD = Oil and Gas BAD. All at the same time as the opinion poll earlier this week which said that Scottish voters were in favour of new licences by a very large 73/27 split (once don't knows removed). We all know that we need to move away from oil and gas over time but the SNP need to tone down the anti-oil and gas rhetoric as like it or not, that's not what the Scottish voters want to hear at this current time. I won't get into it here but my own view is that this entire debate on the climate is focused far too much on the production of energy where if we really want to make a step change we should be paying much more attention on how can we reduce consumption of both energy and the by-products produced from oil and gas

Whether we like it or not personality politics is here to stay and even allowing for the fact that he inherited a shambolic situation, Humza Yousaf does not have it in him to inspire the "middle 20%" to move decisively towards the constant 60/40 split required that would force Westminster's hand. You could just about get away without him being inspirational if he had the ability to run a highly competent Government but looking back over the last ten years or so of his career there is little evidence he has that ability either. With him we would be stuck in the never-ending groundhog day of 52/48, 50/50, 48/52 opinion polls which will allow Westminster to sit back smoking a big fat cigar ignoring any calls for another referendum. For sure it would be disastrous for the Independence movement if the SNP lost the 2026 Holyrood election, but I honestly think it would be beneficial to take a step back in order to make overall progress and by that I mean have a poor 2024 Westminster election that forces a leadership change that would include ditching the Greens, which has been the source of so much that has gone wrong in the last few years. For me, someone like Kate Forbes has the potential to be a more inspirational leader that has shown a good degree of competence in what she has done so far. Making a change after the next General Election would then give her a good year and a half or so ahead of the Scottish Parliament election, which should be more than enough time to see off Labour comfortably before really focusing on moving the dial on the YES vote via a combination of addressing the thorny issues like currency etc as well as changing the focus of day-to-day Goverment back to NHS/Education/Jobs away from gender recognition/anti oil and gas policies/obsession with centralising everything(the care reforms is the next disaster coming down the line).