Shock General Election Poll...

[Cove_Sheep]

[biffer]

Tweets seem to have been deleted?

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (excluding Don't Knows): - http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dmv27pn9yn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-161014.pdf
SNP - 41% (48 seats)
CON - 20% (4 seats)
LAB - 19% (5 seats)
LIB - 9% (2 seats)
UKIP - 6%
GRN - 5%

Populus (Turnout Weighted): - http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_17-10-2014_BPC.pdf
SNP - 35% (32 seats)
CON - 24% (9 seats)
LAB - 21% (12 seats)
LIB - 10% (6 seats)
UKIP - 4%
GRN - 4%

AVERAGE:
SNP - 38% (40 seats)
CON - 22% (6 seats)
LAB - 20% (9 seats)
LIB - 9.5% (4 seats)
UKIP - 5%
GRN - 4.5%

Labour starting to be destroyed.

[Stapes]

Small sample, but funny all the same. I heard a while back that to start winning lots of seats at a WM election you have to hit a certain % of the vote. Vaguely remember it being said that that number was 38.

[Bino's]

i would love to see the old voting patterns smashed at the GE

but i just fear (and suspect) that even after everything people will just get back to their wee comfort zones and not vore snp at GE

[weekevie04]

YouGov (excluding Don't Knows): - http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dmv27pn9yn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-161014.pdf

SNP - 41% (48 seats)

CON - 20% (4 seats)

LAB - 19% (5 seats)

LIB - 9% (2 seats)

UKIP - 6%

GRN - 5%

Populus (Turnout Weighted): - http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_17-10-2014_BPC.pdf

SNP - 35% (32 seats)

CON - 24% (9 seats)

LAB - 21% (12 seats)

LIB - 10% (6 seats)

UKIP - 4%

GRN - 4%

AVERAGE:

SNP - 38% (40 seats)

CON - 22% (6 seats)

LAB - 20% (9 seats)

LIB - 9.5% (4 seats)

UKIP - 5%

GRN - 4.5%

Labour starting to be destroyed.

Cor blimey!

The encouraging thing about those numbers is the yes vote in 'Labour' areas and the number of SNP members in those areas have increased in some cases 500% like in Airdrie, Motherwell, Glasgow.

[Alibi]

This chimes with what I was hearing during the referendum campaign. Large numbers of people were saying that whatever the result, they would never vote Labour again.

[exile]

Beware 'shy tories' and 'the silent majority' and uncounted undecideds/undeclareds!

[hampden_loon2878]

My idiot auntie just informed me she voted no with great delight and says she will vote torie for the first time in the next election to try and keep out the snp(Banff and buchan) how many more will do this?

[UPROAR]

My idiot auntie just informed me she voted no with great delight and says she will vote torie for the first time in the next election to try and keep out the snp(Banff and buchan) how many more will do this?

four, dunno.... how many aunts do you have ?

[irnbruman]

Uproar - that's a fookin classic - loved it.

[hoodster]

What is the shock? That 1 in 5 Scots are Tories? At least!

Or that by going down this route:

Vote for independence and never get a Tory government

Rather than this route:

Vote for independence and only ever get the government that Scotland votes for

Raised the bar for getting a Yes vote to 62.5% of the 4 in 5 non Tories?

Would have loved to hear the honest assertion during the campaign that eventually an independent Scotland would one day elect into government the Tories, the proper progressive one nation 50s style Tories that remain popular in parts of Scotland. That might have swayed some of the traditional small c conservatives that vote SNP or liberal outside of the cities.

[Jacobite Piper]

My idiot auntie just informed me she voted no with great delight and says she will vote torie for the first time in the next election to try and keep out the snp(Banff and buchan) how many more will do this?

There's one chance of the Tories taking Banff & Buchan from the SNP and that's no chance.

[Mitre]

YouGov (excluding Don't Knows): - http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dmv27pn9yn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-161014.pdf

SNP - 41% (48 seats)

CON - 20% (4 seats)

LAB - 19% (5 seats)

LIB - 9% (2 seats)

UKIP - 6%

GRN - 5%

Populus (Turnout Weighted): - http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_17-10-2014_BPC.pdf

SNP - 35% (32 seats)

CON - 24% (9 seats)

LAB - 21% (12 seats)

LIB - 10% (6 seats)

UKIP - 4%

GRN - 4%

AVERAGE:

SNP - 38% (40 seats)

CON - 22% (6 seats)

LAB - 20% (9 seats)

LIB - 9.5% (4 seats)

UKIP - 5%

GRN - 4.5%

Labour starting to be destroyed.

It would be naive in the extreme to believe that Labour will return single digit seats in the upcoming election

[ibelieve!!!]

It would be naive in the extreme to believe that Labour will return single digit seats in the upcoming election

Whilst I agree, there's a possibility that the more they try and counter the UKIP vote the more it may push votes in Scotland away. Edited October 18, 2014 by ibelieve!!!

[Hertsscot]

What is the shock? That 1 in 5 Scots are Tories? At least!

Or that by going down this route:

Vote for independence and never get a Tory government

Rather than this route:

Vote for independence and only ever get the government that Scotland votes for

Raised the bar for getting a Yes vote to 62.5% of the 4 in 5 non Tories?

Would have loved to hear the honest assertion during the campaign that eventually an independent Scotland would one day elect into government the Tories, the proper progressive one nation 50s style Tories that remain popular in parts of Scotland. That might have swayed some of the traditional small c conservatives that vote SNP or liberal outside of the cities.

Whilst I'm pretty left wing (certainly compared with the present Labour party) I think you're right. Surely there is just the plain old fashioned economic argument that Scotland would have been better off if independent.

[Hessen]

What is unusual here is a party that isn't in power at WM losing so many voters. As Labour is getting less support than the Tories maybe the YES side will stop banging on about Scotland being socialist, and start saying we don't want London-based party's telling us what to do, rather than just Tory, which alienates 20% of Scots at a stroke.

Edited October 18, 2014 by Hessen

[exile]

To win a convincing and sustainable majority, the pro-independence side needs to be a broad church and that has to include a central-right element.

There is an element of having to 'do a New Labour' to make it electable.

People may shy away from New Labour as a model because they could see it as somehow a sell-out (left-leaning voters having to put up with years of a centre-right government instead of an actual Labour government) but here we are talking of a one-off referendum, where it needs a majority consensus just once, and the result would be actual independence.

[Toepoke]

As Labour is getting less support than the Tories maybe the YES side will stop banging on about Scotland being socialist, and start saying we don't want London-based party's telling us what to do, rather than just Tory, which alienates 20% of Scots at a stroke.

Agreed and if this swing was to happen next year we might end up with a Labour government we didn't vote for too. Another side to the argument.

I appreciate Sturgeon is an old school left winger but she definitely pushed the independence to get rid of the Tories line a bit too hard.

Re the OP, Labour being behind the Tories in Scotland is astonishing!

Also if the SNP were to join forces with the Greens next year and take most of that 5% it could make a big difference as I would guess the Labour vote would recover a bit closer to polling day...

[exile]

I suppose it all depends on *where* all those votes are distributed.

You could have tactical voting to keep the SNP out, and that alone could account for swings to Tory in some seats and swings to Labour in others. Under FPTP, you could get 40% of the vote and still only get a handful of seats.

[Pool Q]

Time will tell if there is a genuine move here, or whether, come a General Election, we'll get the same old same old with folk who will vote SNP for Holyrood elections (and YES at the referendum) will revert to Labour for Westminster to 'keep out the Tories'. I suspect that, by and large, we will, but time will tell. I was at an SNP constituency meeting for Edinburgh Central on Thursday at which there must have been 300-400 people. As it happens the Labour party were having a constituency meeting next door at which 6 people were present.

[Flora MaDonald]

Who gives a phuqq. We had our chance and blew it.

[Hertsscot]

Who gives a phuqq. We had our chance and blew it.

We had a chance. We didn't take it. Plenty of people still give a phuqq and aren't walking away. Remember he WM elite and their buddies in the media would want nothing better, don't give them that satisfaction.

[thewelk]

We had a chance. We didn't take it. Plenty of people still give a phuqq and aren't walking away. Remember he WM elite and their buddies in the media would want nothing better, don't give them that satisfaction.

The WM elite and their buddies in the media don't let you see things they don't want you to see. So actually all this talking up of the SNP and their 40% is probably some kind of strategic play on their part.

[DonnyTJS]