Shock General Election Poll...

[ZoltanBuchan]

My idiot auntie just informed me she voted no with great delight and says she will vote torie for the first time in the next election to try and keep out the snp(Banff and buchan) how many more will do this?

There's one chance of the Tories taking Banff & Buchan from the SNP and that's no chance.

Indeed. The SNP's decreased majority at the last GE was due to a popular and well known MP standing aside, combined with a flavour-of-the-month celebrity standing for the Tories. Eilidh Whiteford has since proved to be a highly competent and popular constituency MP, I fully expect her to win with an increased majority.

[ZoltanBuchan]

Post 'edited' because I failed to read the thread properly

Edited October 18, 2014 by ZoltanBuchan

[thplinth]

Who gives a phuqq. We had our chance and blew it.

Exactly one month ago today.

[Jonny]

Time will tell if there is a genuine move here, or whether, come a General Election, we'll get the same old same old with folk who will vote SNP for Holyrood elections (and YES at the referendum) will revert to Labour for Westminster to 'keep out the Tories'. I suspect that, by and large, we will, but time will tell. I was at an SNP constituency meeting for Edinburgh Central on Thursday at which there must have been 300-400 people. As it happens the Labour party were having a constituency meeting next door at which 6 people were present.

Of all the TAMB posters' judgements during the referendum, yours were the most rational and proven to be correct. So, I take what you're saying about the GE results potentially offering little change - the pessimist in me says the SNP will do well to get 15 seats. I think that Labour will take a hit, how big that'll be remains to be seen but whether or not it'll relieve us of their 'big hitters' like Curran or Murphy deserves a bit more scrutiny.

Take Curran's seat:

Lab 20k

SNP 8K

the rest 4-5k

Turnout 52% (~32k)

Now I suspect that post-referendum with increased engagement in politics, you're talking a high 60s, possibly 70% turnout. That's an extra 6,000 votes and very few of them will be going to Labour, I'd suspect 80% of that will be SNP. If 30% of Curran's vote switch from Labour to SNP, which doesn't seem unreasonable, the wicked witch is on a tightrope.

I can't see that extending to Murphy, unfortunately.

Lab 26k

Tory 16K

Lib 5k

SNP 5k

77% turnout (~61k)

The only hope of getting rid of him is if everyone that voted Yes...votes Tory. Even with the most successful tactical voting campaign ever, that's not going to happen.

[hampden_loon2878]

Totally agree with you on this and with regards to mrs whiteford she has done a good job in the area and is a very clever woman

Indeed. The SNP's decreased majority at the last GE was due to a popular and well known MP standing aside, combined with a flavour-of-the-month celebrity standing for the Tories. Eilidh Whiteford has since proved to be a highly competent and popular constituency MP, I fully expect her to win with an increased majority.

[Toepoke]

Murphy's threat in East Renfrewshire will come from the Tory candidate, especially if Labour voters drift to SNP...

[scotlad]

Of all the TAMB posters' judgements during the referendum, yours were the most rational and proven to be correct. So, I take what you're saying about the GE results potentially offering little change - the pessimist in me says the SNP will do well to get 15 seats. I think that Labour will take a hit, how big that'll be remains to be seen but whether or not it'll relieve us of their 'big hitters' like Curran or Murphy deserves a bit more scrutiny.

Take Curran's seat:

Lab 20k

SNP 8K

the rest 4-5k

Turnout 52% (~32k)

Now I suspect that post-referendum with increased engagement in politics, you're talking a high 60s, possibly 70% turnout. That's an extra 6,000 votes and very few of them will be going to Labour, I'd suspect 80% of that will be SNP. If 30% of Curran's vote switch from Labour to SNP, which doesn't seem unreasonable, the wicked witch is on a tightrope.

I can't see that extending to Murphy, unfortunately.

Lab 26k

Tory 16K

Lib 5k

SNP 5k

77% turnout (~61k)

The only hope of getting rid of him is if everyone that voted Yes...votes Tory. Even with the most successful tactical voting campaign ever, that's not going to happen.

Of all the Glasgow seats Curran's is the most vulnerable.

The SNP need to convince voters that they are the party best equipped to stand up for Scotland. A lot needs to be made of the fact that there is barely a fag paper between Labour and the Tories in terms of policies, meaning that even if Labour are voted in then little will change.

It will be hard for the SNP come election time, as the three 'establishment' parties are bound to receive disproportionate MSM coverage. If the SNP are to make inroads they must utilise their growing grassroots in a similar fashion as they did during the referendum.

[littleboyblue]

Was it Curran who stood against john mason when he won the by-election in glasgow east? Ok, so he lost it again come the general election in 2010, but it shows it could be done.

[scotlad]

Was it Curran who stood against john mason when he won the by-election in glasgow east? Ok, so he lost it again come the general election in 2010, but it shows it could be done.

It was, aye.