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Possible Group Scenario


The Black Bra
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Was just thinking:

What if England win all three games, Croatia beat the Czechs then we beat Croatia. That means England would have 9 points, the other three teams would all have 3 points.

Think I was told before it goes on head-to-head rather than goal diff if teams are level. Croatia would have better H-T-H against Czechs, Czechs would be better than us but we would be better than Croatia. Would it then be on Goal difference? Lot of ‘ifs’ in there, don’t feel like I’ve got the brain cells to work it out after yesterday…..

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3 minutes ago, The Black Bra said:

Was just thinking:

What if England win all three games, Croatia beat the Czechs then we beat Croatia. That means England would have 9 points, the other three teams would all have 3 points.

Think I was told before it goes on head-to-head rather than goal diff if teams are level. Croatia would have better H-T-H against Czechs, Czechs would be better than us but we would be better than Croatia. Would it then be on Goal difference? Lot of ‘ifs’ in there, don’t feel like I’ve got the brain cells to work it out after yesterday…..

If three teams finish on the same points then it clearly cannot go on a head to head comparison. I think it would go to goal difference, then goals scored, number of wins and then disciplinary records as a last resort.

Realistically if us the Czechs and Croatia were to finish on 3 points we would possibly have to beat Croatia by about 3 goals to have a chance of finishing 2nd.

Edited by Lion Rampant
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If that happened then, by agonising tradition, we'd almost certainly be last on goal difference/goals scored, or if we managed to nick third place, be eliminated as one of the worst third placers anyway.

Edited by exile
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2 minutes ago, exile said:

If that happened then, by agonising tradition, we'd almost certainly be last on goal difference/goals scored, or if we managed to nick third place, be eliminated as one of the worst third placers anyway.

It's pretty much guaranteed unfortunately, unless a couple of groups throw up a 3rd placed team with one point. One group that could do this is the Wales group. If Italy and Turkey both win their last 2 games then one of Wales and Switzerland will finish 3rd with 1 point.

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32 minutes ago, The Black Bra said:

Was just thinking:

What if England win all three games, Croatia beat the Czechs then we beat Croatia. That means England would have 9 points, the other three teams would all have 3 points.

Think I was told before it goes on head-to-head rather than goal diff if teams are level. Croatia would have better H-T-H against Czechs, Czechs would be better than us but we would be better than Croatia. Would it then be on Goal difference? Lot of ‘ifs’ in there, don’t feel like I’ve got the brain cells to work it out after yesterday…..

 

28 minutes ago, Lion Rampant said:

If three teams finish on the same points then it clearly cannot go on a head to head comparison. I think it would go to goal difference, then goals scored, number of wins and then disciplinary records as a last resort.

Realistically if us the Czechs and Croatia were to finish on 3 points we would possibly have to beat Croatia by about 3 goals to have a chance of finishing 2nd.

In this case were three teams tied it is resolved by a mini league using the results between the three teams.

If for example Croatia beat the Czechs 2-0, then we beat Croatia 2-0, it would then go to goal difference in the group and the team who lost least heaviest at Wembley would finish 2nd in the group.

If that happens and we also lose 1-0 at Wembley, we would have a penalty shootout with Croatia at full time to determine who finishes above who in the group.

 

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16 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

 

In this case were three teams tied it is resolved by a mini league using the results between the three teams.

If for example Croatia beat the Czechs 2-0, then we beat Croatia 2-0, it would then go to goal difference in the group and the team who lost least heaviest at Wembley would finish 2nd in the group.

If that happens and we also lose 1-0 at Wembley, we would have a penalty shootout with Croatia at full time to determine who finishes above who in the group.

 

Are you sure it wouldn’t be the goal difference between the three tied teams?  That second goal yesterday could be real pain in the arse.  I wonder if we want a biggish Czech win on Friday  then a shootout with Croatia for third.  Obviously I’m assuming we lose to England. 

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4 minutes ago, adamntg said:

Are you sure it wouldn’t be the goal difference between the three tied teams?  That second goal yesterday could be real pain in the arse.  I wonder if we want a biggish Czech win on Friday  then a shootout with Croatia for third.  Obviously I’m assuming we lose to England. 

Toepoke is correct. They use that "mini league" thing. I'm not sure if it has ever been required? As he says the new thing this time round is a potential shootout after the last game. What a way to go out that would be. Much better than losing all 3 games right enough. ;)

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Not many groups looking like the 3rd place team will just be on 1 or 2 points tbh.

Really hoping for Hungary-Portugal to be a draw as possible that could be one aswell.

Croatia-Czechs is tricky one to call I think, could see that being a draw so would keep things alive until last game at least in a realistic scenario regardless of Friday.

Portugal and Northern Ireland went through with 3 points in 2016 but Portugal drew their 3 games and Norn Iron lost the two games just 1-0 and won 2-0 v ukraine so both had 0 GD.

Will be some effort to finish on neutral goal difference now.

Edited by Tartan Chris
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The way I see it is there’s no point in looking into this just now or agonising over it. Yesterday’s tells us there’s a lot of hardwork to be done and we could be very lucky to pick up a point in this group.We’re a very poor team in the final 3rd, you make your own luck in that regard.See what happens against England I guess.

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3 minutes ago, Tartan Chris said:

Croatia-Czechs is tricky one to call I think, could see that being a draw so would keep things alive until last game at least in a realistic scenario regardless of Friday.

A Czech-Croatia draw followed by a Wembley defeat for us probably leaves us needing snookers (or rather an improbably large win over to Croatia to grab a 3rd place qualifier).

As adamntg said losing by two yesterday could be a group killer. We've previous here, if England had only beaten us 1 nil at Euro96 we'd have qualified.

 

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1 hour ago, adamntg said:

Are you sure it wouldn’t be the goal difference between the three tied teams?  That second goal yesterday could be real pain in the arse.  I wonder if we want a biggish Czech win on Friday  then a shootout with Croatia for third.  Obviously I’m assuming we lose to England. 

Yeah, I think that second goal yesterday could effectively have eliminated us already. 

Realistically, the clearest way of us qualifying is getting something at Wembley and then beating Croatia at home.  I can't see that happening though, unfortunately, and if we can avoid a Panama-style tanking from England on Friday I'll almost be pleased.  Given they beat the Czechs by a similar scoreline at Wembley not so long ago, it is a distinct possibility.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

A 3-1 win at Wembley would put us right back in it. Stranger things have happened. Although we would probably then go and get humped by Croatia. 

Don’t think many stranger things have happened….

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5 minutes ago, The Black Bra said:

Don’t think many stranger things have happened….

😂

We have already had our allocation of tournament strangeness anyway, it was that bloody second goal. 

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I would strongly fancy Czechia to beat Croatia and they play them just before our game. So Croatia could effectively be out of it when we play them. In fact Czechia with 6 points could win the group! Really we must get a draw from England.

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Croatia wouldn’t be out in that scenario, they’d be in the same position as us if we lose to England. If we get a point or even three against England, Croatia could still beat us and finish above us. Not sure if anyone can definitely be out after 2 games…?

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

A 3-1 win at Wembley would put us right back in it. Stranger things have happened. Although we would probably then go and get humped by Croatia. 

Winning would be strange, winning 3-1 would be extremely strange. But you’re right, we would obviously lose to Croatia and go out on goal difference if we did win.

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

A 3-1 win at Wembley would put us right back in it. Stranger things have happened. Although we would probably then go and get humped by Croatia. 


I can’t think of a time in my lifetime that we have beaten England by two goals at Wembley.  And that includes the seventies when we had a good team.  Be as well saying if we beat Brazil by two goals.

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10 minutes ago, Malcolm said:


I can’t think of a time in my lifetime that we have beaten England by two goals at Wembley.  And that includes the seventies when we had a good team.  Be as well saying if we beat Brazil by two goals.

Exactly and that's with better players.  We need to be realistic . 1 goal win and backs to the wall performance is the best we can hope for . A paris 2007 faddy moment maybe 

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It may be futile for fans to second guess the group outcomes, but presumably the Scotland management need to take it into account. If things are not going too well, halfway through the Wembley game, do Scotland need to go for broke, or try to minimise loss? For example if losing 1-0, do they park the bus, to monimise goals against, and hoping a win against Croatia could be our lifeline? Or if they calculate a win against Croatia unlikely to be enough to get qualification (quite apart from also being unlikely) then go for broke, risking everything to get to 1-1 and accepting risking a bigger loss and elimination on the day?

Edited by exile
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4 hours ago, Malcolm said:


I can’t think of a time in my lifetime that we have beaten England by two goals at Wembley.  And that includes the seventies when we had a good team.  Be as well saying if we beat Brazil by two goals.

1949 I believe, the "Jimmy Cowan game" as Arthur Montford used to call it.

 

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Main problem for me is another defeat and the best we can probably get is 3rd place with a negative goal difference .

I fear the scotland group might be one of the two third placer groups where they get eliminated. 

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