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Think I will go SNP/Alba btw here in West o S.   Chance that list vote could be wasted, but 1 Green looks safe... or are the polls a trick?   (Worried by low turnout, so should revert to SNP x2.)

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I read both the tamb (although much less frequently these days) and wings and if you want to read pages and pages of personal abuse (a lot of it directed at Stuart Campbell funnily enough) and mindles

No , I will reply. I havent launched anything I have replied to your post.  Its your tone and attitude to the idea that people may not agree that SNP 1 /ALBA 2 is the best option. I am still genuine

You are doing a pretty good job of bullying and intimidating folk yourself. Its not a pantomime to be giving consideration to who you want your vote to go to. 

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5 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

I was wrong then, but will 99% of the population think you look stupid?   I think it is Ahlapa by the way so look like a fud 😄

No, because that’s how we say Ajax, and we say Alba as Alba, not Alpa. 

We say Barcelona, not Barthalona like Spanish speaks do. 

Salmond doesn’t speak Gaelic, as far as I know, he would look a bit stupid saying it like that. 

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11 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

I was wrong then, but will 99% of the population think you look stupid?   I think it is Ahlapa by the way so look like a fud 😄

I actually say ahlapa, only because i love the runrig song and thats how it’s pronounced when they sing it

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3 minutes ago, kumnio said:

No, because that’s how we say Ajax, and we say Alba as Alba, not Alpa. 

We say Barcelona, not Barthalona like Spanish speaks do. 

Salmond doesn’t speak Gaelic, as far as I know, he would look a bit stupid saying it like that. 

Here was me thinking the party were named after a Gaelic speaking TV channel :blush:

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Just now, hampden_loon2878 said:

I actually say ahlapa, only because i love the runrig song and thats how it’s pronounced when they sing it

That's aaaaaaaaaaaaa-La-PA!!!

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1 minute ago, Grim Jim said:

Here was me thinking the party were named after a Gaelic speaking TV channel :blush:

It may well be, but 99% of people won’t pronounce it like that. 

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Appreciate many of us have lost the tongue but as someone of a west highland heritage I'm not sure I like this idea of comparing alba pronunciation to spanish people saying barcelona.  It's still our country whether the population has migrated and lost it's footing.  My grandfather spoke it and ive always said it properly despite not being a speaker.  Hardly going to change now.

Ironically the english speaker would be correct and the spaniard the ignorant with the barcelona example by the way!  It's not said with a th, I dont even think it is by the spanish unless being deliberately obtuse but certainly not the catalans.

 

 

Edited by PapofGlencoe
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On 5/2/2021 at 11:27 AM, hampden_loon2878 said:

polls are going the opposite way because IMO everyone is so sick of covid and the restrictions, at the start stugeon went through a honeymoon period that is now running thin. the trust aspect with her has been shook, it certainly has with me.. polling with alba should be taken with a serious pinch of salt, they are going to have pockets of support in different areas that is hard to gauge,, this is one strange election that i am struggling to get a feel for

That's possibly true. Also, the threat of a no-deal Brexit might have been pushing soft No's towards Yes but since that has been averted there might be a sense that it's all over now and things will get back to normal (although nothing could be further from the truth).

This is a strange election to get a handle on, I'm with you there. I reckon it'll be quite a low turnout and I suspect a large proportion of votes will already have been via postal voting.

As far as support goes, in Glasgow's trendy west end there are a lot of Green party posters in windows, narrowly pipping the SNP; and in Thornwood at the weekend I spotted a huge Alba party poster display in the window of one flat.

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A lot of the Asian owned shops have Alba and SNP in their window.  Read from that what you will.  2 or 3 in a row in Glasgow South.

I really have no idea how this will go.  I'm sticking to my idea that the SNP won't get a majority and its knife edge on whether pro Indy's get there.  Feeling seems to be greens will do better.  Alba to pick up a seat

 

 

Edited by PapofGlencoe
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Since 2016 we've had Brexit referendum, Boris Johnson, foreign nationals' ability to vote, COVID (+ increase in postal voting?) and Alba and other new parties. So, several changes that could make predicting more unpredictable. 

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1 hour ago, PapofGlencoe said:

A lot of the Asian owned shops have Alba and SNP in their window.  Read from that what you will.  2 or 3 in a row in Glasgow South.

I really have no idea how this will go.  I'm sticking to my idea that the SNP won't get a majority and its knife edge on whether pro Indy's get there.  Feeling seems to be greens will do better.  Alba to pick up a seat

 

 

I think it's pretty certain an Indy majority will be in place.

SNP touch and go re a majority

Greens up

Tories down

Lab/lib same

Alba? That's the question. 

The most important is the turn out , has to be over 50% or it will hinder the referendum.

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7 hours ago, Archiesdad said:

I think it's pretty certain an Indy majority will be in place.

SNP touch and go re a majority

Greens up

Tories down

Lab/lib same

Alba? That's the question. 

The most important is the turn out , has to be over 50% or it will hinder the referendum.

For arguably the most important election in the life of the Scottish Parliament you would hope for a lot more than 50% turn out.  Scotland needs to reject an increasingly dysfunctional union and the more people who send out that message the better.

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12 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

Opinium poll was coming from a particularly high water mark but seems closer to yougov and other polls with sampling within the last week. 
 

The ones released over the weekend with 1 week old sampling showing snp dip now look out of date.  
 

If Greens hit 13% that would be remarkably good. Think this is the only poll that’s placed them that high but I think they’ll do well. 

Latest poll today from SavantaComres has the snp continuing to slide and yes 42 / no 50. 
 

They are miles away from the Yougov and Opinium polls from yesterday.  Will be interesting to see who got close when the results come in. 

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1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said:

Latest poll today from SavantaComres has the snp continuing to slide and yes 42 / no 50. 
 

They are miles away from the Yougov and Opinium polls from yesterday.  Will be interesting to see who got close when the results come in. 

I see that age old Scottish pattern developing here.

As polling day nears the polls for Yes drop as people get cold feet on voting potentially for Yes to IndyRef2. Too many people who are not 100% committed to the cause most definitely.

What has happened to all that Brexit outrage? The constant knockbacks? Tory mismanagement of COVID-19? 

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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10 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I see that age old Scottish pattern developing here.

As polling day nears the polls for Yes drop as people get cold feet on voting potentially for Yes to IndyRef2. Too many people who are not 100% committed to the cause most definitely.

Really?..what I see is a polling firm that might as well shut its doors on Saturday. 

Survation has a poll out today with SNP/Indy improvement again and far more in keeping with YouGov, Panelbase polls and the Sky one the other day. 
 

Sevanta Comres have at every stage shown a much lower level of support than all the others. Come Saturday they will either look like geniuses or a  shambles. Given their commissions have been coming from such impartial outlets as the Scotsman and the New Statesman I think the odds are with the latter. (He who pays the piper etc). 
 

On the other hand..in an election like no other I’m not going to invest any money on the outcome. 

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1 minute ago, Micky said:

Really?..what I see is a polling firm that might as well shut its doors on Saturday. 

Survation has a poll out today with SNP/Indy improvement again and far more in keeping with YouGov, Panelbase polls and the Sky one the other day. 
 

Sevanta Comres have at every stage shown a much lower level of support than all the others. Come Saturday they will either look like geniuses or a  shambles. Given their commissions have been coming from such impartial outlets as the Scotsman and the New Statesman I think the odds are with the latter. (He who pays the piper etc). 
 

On the other hand..in an election like no other I’m not going to invest any money on the outcome. 

The Yes vote has been very strong throughout all of last year and into early this year. But now that the Scottish Election has been turned into almost IndyRef of its own we've seen Yes vote and SNP vote nosedive in the polls (generally) dropping off by 5 to 10% on average. Okay we had the Sturgeon hearing but to counter-balance that we have had more Tory sleaze. That is why I put it down to when it comes down to the crunch people getting cold feet....again.

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23 minutes ago, Micky said:

Really?..what I see is a polling firm that might as well shut its doors on Saturday. 

Survation has a poll out today with SNP/Indy improvement again and far more in keeping with YouGov, Panelbase polls and the Sky one the other day. 
 

Sevanta Comres have at every stage shown a much lower level of support than all the others. Come Saturday they will either look like geniuses or a  shambles. Given their commissions have been coming from such impartial outlets as the Scotsman and the New Statesman I think the odds are with the latter. (He who pays the piper etc). 
 

On the other hand..in an election like no other I’m not going to invest any money on the outcome. 

ComRes has been pretty much all over the place since Christmas.  They had to restate figures from December and January on the Independence question as they'd miscalculated them - they had vastly overestimated the Yes numbers.  

They're so far out of kilter with the rest of the pollsters it has to be an outlier - but then maybe they are right and everyone else is wrong.

Its somewhat annoying as they are one of the few polling companies that give a regional breakdown which is what you need if you want to try and work out what might happen on the lists.

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35 minutes ago, aaid said:

ComRes has been pretty much all over the place since Christmas.  They had to restate figures from December and January on the Independence question as they'd miscalculated them - they had vastly overestimated the Yes numbers.  

They're so far out of kilter with the rest of the pollsters it has to be an outlier - but then maybe they are right and everyone else is wrong.

 

Obviously the Daily Record used theirs as their headline today! 

Shameless. 

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14 hours ago, kumnio said:

No, because that’s how we say Ajax, and we say Alba as Alba, not Alpa. 

We say Barcelona, not Barthalona like Spanish speaks do. 

Salmond doesn’t speak Gaelic, as far as I know, he would look a bit stupid saying it like that. 

Well said. 

I always refer to that former Arsenal player as Terry Hendry. Never Onree

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1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Obviously the Daily Record used theirs as their headline today! 

Shameless. 

Also, the one the other day with polling that was over a week old - obviously being held to release at the chosen moment to try and influence public opinion with the chosen narrative. 

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So my prediction for tomorrow is snp even stevens, possibly down 2 or3  seats, labour end up opposition, tories have a terrible night, as do the liberals,, alba pick up 4, greens up 4 also

46% snp

19 labour

18 labour

9% greens

4% libs

 

list,

Alba 7%

Small unionist parties 5% that will be key

 

but this is a stab in the dark,, very difficult to read 

Edited by hampden_loon2878
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7 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

So my prediction for tomorrow is snp even stevens, possibly down 2 or3  seats, labour end up opposition, tories have a terrible night, as do the liberals,, alba pick up 4, greens up 4 also

46% snp

19 labour

18 labour

9% greens

4% libs

 

list,

Alba 7%

Small unionist parties 5% that will be key

 

but this is a stab in the dark,, very difficult to read 

Are any of the polls predicting the Tories to have a terrible night?  I thought they were looking pretty stable and doing well with list vote. 

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