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Holyrood Elections 2021


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19 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Are any of the polls predicting the Tories to have a terrible night?  I thought they were looking pretty stable and doing well with list vote. 

Most pollsters have the Tories broadly where they were in 2016 on the list, which was 23%.

They'll most likely shed some seats though as I suspect they'll lose a few constituencies but won't get them back on the list.

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41 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Are any of the polls predicting the Tories to have a terrible night?  I thought they were looking pretty stable and doing well with list vote. 

Just my opinion, but if I was a Tory I might be worried that Douglas Ross is having the Jo Swinson effect - the more people see of him the less they like him.

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15 hours ago, kumnio said:

No, because that’s how we say Ajax, and we say Alba as Alba, not Alpa. 

We say Barcelona, not Barthalona like Spanish speaks do. 

Salmond doesn’t speak Gaelic, as far as I know, he would look a bit stupid saying it like that. 

Actually, in Barcelona they say “Barcelona”.  They don’t lisp their c’s in Catalonia. 

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29 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Just my opinion, but if I was a Tory I might be worried that Douglas Ross is having the Jo Swinson effect - the more people see of him the less they like him.

I think they’ve got the benefit of this tag of the chosen defenders of the Union. It means that characters, chancers and their actions - regardless of how bad - get a free pass in Scotland for the Tories support. It doesn’t matter how bad Douglas Ross is or how much of a shambles Brexit is or to what extent Boris is shown up to be an absolute charlatan. 
 

 

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22 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

no they are not just a gut feeling i have,, could be way off

If you look at the polls they've been consistently polling around 22-23% on the list and similar on the constituency but with a slightly wider spread.   That's pretty much what they got in 2016.

So in terms of vote share they are probably flat.  What it turns into in seats is anyone's guess and I think a lot will come into how well they perform in the constituencies and to what extent there is tactical voting to support them.   If they lose any constituency seats they may not quite have enough to pick them up on the list, especially given the Greens looking stronger.  

I do wonder whether the Greens might be a little bit overpriced.   You'll know more than me but I think B&BC could be on a shoogly peg for the SNP, but I think that's down to local factors that it's hard to gauge.

Regardless, I think it's pretty clear that 2017 represents peak Tory when they got just under 29% of the vote.

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On 4/30/2021 at 10:17 PM, Dave78 said:

Nah... there's a reason that new administrations talk about their plans for their 'first 100 days'. That's when they have the most political capital, and can get things done.

For a new pro-indy parliament to not push ahead with indyref2 (and force Westminster to test the legality in court) would be another error (it should have been done years ago IMO).

I can guarantee that you will be disappointed, imo of course. 

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My guesses. 

SNP lose 2(hope I'm wrong) 

Greens gain 6(hope I'm right) 

Tories second most seats

Labour lose 2

Libs same as before

No other party to get any(hope I'm right) 

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

If you look at the polls they've been consistently polling around 22-23% on the list and similar on the constituency but with a slightly wider spread.   That's pretty much what they got in 2016.

So in terms of vote share they are probably flat.  What it turns into in seats is anyone's guess and I think a lot will come into how well they perform in the constituencies and to what extent there is tactical voting to support them.   If they lose any constituency seats they may not quite have enough to pick them up on the list, especially given the Greens looking stronger.  

I do wonder whether the Greens might be a little bit overpriced.   You'll know more than me but I think B&BC could be on a shoogly peg for the SNP, but I think that's down to local factors that it's hard to gauge.

Regardless, I think it's pretty clear that 2017 represents peak Tory when they got just under 29% of the vote.

yes the banff and buchan coast is a toss up, i would like to think the snp will hold it, i think we had 55% of the vote share in 2016?or round about there but national wide factors have reset the dial here,, findlater is a joke here for the tories, the snp candidate adams is growing on me,, she holds herself alright..i would just like an economic vision for this area.. i know you dont like salmond but he will help the constituency vote here there is no doubt about that... the seats we may lose will be b&b, caithness, i think lochead is safe in moray,there will be a few close calls in glasgow with labour 

 

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24 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

What are the local factors in Banff that may go against snp? 
 

Any other surprises expected/possible? 

Brexit, specifically fishing.  How the local populace view being shafted by the Tories vs the SNP wanting to go back into the EU.  Neither being particularly appealing to a lot of people in the constituency.

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Does anyone here actually believe that the SNP intend to deliver another referendum in the next parliament? Because based on that debate Nicola has absolutely no intention to even campaign for independence nevermind deliver another referendum

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7 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

Does anyone here actually believe that the SNP intend to deliver another referendum in the next parliament? Because based on that debate Nicola has absolutely no intention to even campaign for independence nevermind deliver another referendum

Yes. I do. 

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2 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Yes. I do. 

Really, why? The party refuse to even talk about independence and keep kicking the issue further down the road. They haven't learned any of the lessons from 2014 and still intend to push this ridiculous currency union policy. Not one of the SNP leaflets I've had through my door even mentions independence.

This is before even getting to the debate about EU membership, whether they will actually give Scots a say on that issue and if EU membership actually constitutes being an independent country.

 

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22 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

Does anyone here actually believe that the SNP intend to deliver another referendum in the next parliament? Because based on that debate Nicola has absolutely no intention to even campaign for independence nevermind deliver another referendum

I think their aim is first to get into power, with a majority if possible. To do that they aim to woo indy supporters and also floating voters, whose immediate priority is not indy, but who might be persuaded to vote SNP because of - say - perceived strong leadership during pandemic, and a bunch of popular policies. 

Then, if they get into power, they would have a mandate for an independence referendum which they'd aim to hold at a time of their choosing when they are most likely to win it. This probably means once things are back to a bit more like normal, when the voters' minds are turning to the future, and when more work has been done for the economic case and post-indy future plans. 

So it looks to me like a two stage strategy, aiming to have an indyref when it's more likely to return a Yes vote.

I think Alex Salmond said last night that leaders should lead public opinion and not follow it. Whether or not that holds in this case, I am not sure. Perhaps NS seems to be following, at the pace of a stubborn Scotland who is not yet ready for indy. Whether that's the best strategy or not, it is at least consistent with aiming to hold and win a referendum in the next parliament.

 

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On 5/2/2021 at 12:09 PM, Orraloon said:

 If he hadn't stood down in 2014 we would have had another referendum already. Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

Can't see any time this could have happened when we would have won so i am glad that didn't happen

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46 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

Does anyone here actually believe that the SNP intend to deliver another referendum in the next parliament? Because based on that debate Nicola has absolutely no intention to even campaign for independence nevermind deliver another referendum

I actually do, however very cautiously,, the election needs won before a referendum can be held,, you risk pushing voters away if you are too gun ho

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18 minutes ago, exile said:

I think their aim is first to get into power, with a majority if possible. To do that they aim to woo indy supporters and also floating voters, whose immediate priority is not indy, but who might be persuaded to vote SNP because of - say - perceived strong leadership during pandemic, and a bunch of popular policies. 

Then, if they get into power, they would have a mandate for an independence referendum which they'd aim to hold at a time of their choosing when they are most likely to win it. This probably means once things are back to a bit more like normal, when the voters' minds are turning to the future, and when more work has been done for the economic case and post-indy future plans. 

So it looks to me like a two stage strategy, aiming to have an indyref when it's more likely to return a Yes vote.

I think Alex Salmond said last night that leaders should lead public opinion and not follow it. Whether or not that holds in this case, I am not sure. Perhaps NS seems to be following, at the pace of a stubborn Scotland who is not yet ready for indy. Whether that's the best strategy or not, it is at least consistent with aiming to hold and win a referendum in the next parliament.

 

You make a lot of good points and of course there is merit for the SNP in winning the election by convincing as many voters as possible to back them but I don't think it's possible to be all things to all people. The party had a mandate to hold a referendum in the last parliament because the material change in circumstances occurred in 2016 but they didn't push for it. In fact since the 19th of September 2014 the party pretty much refused to engage on the issue of independence at all whilst acting like they have a dictatorial role over the constitutional issue. It's been seven years completely wasted when we could have used that time to build up momentum, learn the lessons from 2014 and brought forward a new generation of indy supporters. Why did we stop campaigning?

By being the party in government for 14 years and by trying to be all things to all people the party has moved sharply to the right and has been inundated with careerist politicians who couldn't give a toss about independence one way or another. I am not convinced that under any circumstance the SNP will be ready for a referendum during this parliament and I dont think Nicola Sturgeon wants the headache of running another independence campaign. WHY OH WHY are we not making the case that independence is the best way to recover from the pandemic? it is a complete open goal but the SNP seem completely scared to even make such an obvious argument.

I won't be voting for the SNP,

1) because I don't believe they have any intention of campaigning or getting another referendum

2) Because of the absolute shambles that is the drug crisis in Scotland

3) the "4 nations approach" and the 10,000 deaths that happend as a consequence of their mismanagement of the pandemic

4) EU membership, and the fact that they wont even considering offering the people of Scotland a vote on the issue

5) Pete Wishart, Stewart McDonald, Alyn Smith, Derek McKay, Angus Robertson, Humza Youseff and every other total wanker in the party

Among a lot of other reasons. I've only ever voted for the SNP in Scotland but I wont ever give this administation another shot, they cant take my vote as an independence supporter for granted and they wont be getting it.

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8 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

You make a lot of good points and of course there is merit for the SNP in winning the election by convincing as many voters as possible to back them but I don't think it's possible to be all things to all people. The party had a mandate to hold a referendum in the last parliament because the material change in circumstances occurred in 2016 but they didn't push for it. In fact since the 19th of September 2014 the party pretty much refused to engage on the issue of independence at all whilst acting like they have a dictatorial role over the constitutional issue. It's been seven years completely wasted when we could have used that time to build up momentum, learn the lessons from 2014 and brought forward a new generation of indy supporters. Why did we stop campaigning?

By being the party in government for 14 years and by trying to be all things to all people the party has moved sharply to the right and has been inundated with careerist politicians who couldn't give a toss about independence one way or another. I am not convinced that under any circumstance the SNP will be ready for a referendum during this parliament and I dont think Nicola Sturgeon wants the headache of running another independence campaign. WHY OH WHY are we not making the case that independence is the best way to recover from the pandemic? it is a complete open goal but the SNP seem completely scared to even make such an obvious argument.

I won't be voting for the SNP,

1) because I don't believe they have any intention of campaigning or getting another referendum

2) Because of the absolute shambles that is the drug crisis in Scotland

3) the "4 nations approach" and the 10,000 deaths that happend as a consequence of their mismanagement of the pandemic

4) EU membership, and the fact that they wont even considering offering the people of Scotland a vote on the issue

5) Pete Wishart, Stewart McDonald, Alyn Smith, Derek McKay, Angus Robertson, Humza Youseff and every other total wanker in the party

Among a lot of other reasons. I've only ever voted for the SNP in Scotland but I wont ever give this administation another shot, they cant take my vote as an independence supporter for granted and they wont be getting it.

Who you voting if you dont mind me asking?

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2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Who you voting if you dont mind me asking?

I don't know who I will vote for if anyone on the main vote. But I will give my list vote to Alba despite the fact that I think Alex Salmond is a complete sleeze just because they are making independence their number one priority and will push for EFTA rather than full EU membership.

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