Coronavirus

[thplinth]

Little bit more on this.. bit more worrying than I initially thought. 

(Very little point arguing about any of this... ultimately time will tell. Plus even if this happens, they will just deny it and blame the unvaccinated for not being vaccinated...)

This chicken vaccine makes its virus more dangerous

Science Jul 27, 2015 3:01 PM EDT

The deadliest strains of viruses often take care of themselves — they flare up and then die out. This is because they are so good at destroying cells and causing illness that they ultimately kill their host before they have time to spread.

But a chicken virus that represents one of the deadliest germs in history breaks from this conventional wisdom, thanks to an inadvertent effect from a vaccine. Chickens vaccinated against Marek’s disease rarely get sick. But the vaccine does not prevent them from spreading Marek’s to unvaccinated birds.

In fact, rather than stop fowl from spreading the virus, the vaccine allows the disease to spread faster and longer than it normally would, a new study finds. The scientists now believe that this vaccine has helped this chicken virus become uniquely virulent. (Note: it only harms fowl). The study was published on Monday in the journal PLOS Biology.

This is the first time that this virus-boosting phenomenon, known as the imperfect vaccine hypothesis, has been observed experimentally.

The reason this is a problem for Marek’s disease is because the vaccine is “leaky.” A leaky vaccine is one that keeps a microbe from doing serious harm to its host, but doesn’t stop the disease from replicating and spreading to another individual. On the other hand, a “perfect” vaccine is one that sets up lifelong immunity that never wanes and blocks both infection and transmission.

It’s important to note childhood vaccines for polio, measles, mumps, rubella and smallpox aren’t leaky; they are considered “perfect” vaccines. As such, they are in no way in danger of falling prey to this phenomenon.

But the results do raise the questions for some human vaccines that are leaky – such as malaria, and other agricultural vaccines, such as the one being used against avian influenza, or bird flu.

Marek’s disease has plagued the chicken industry, it causes $2 billion in losses annually for fowl farmers across the globe. The virus attacks the brain, spawns tumors in the birds and comes in different varieties or “strains”, which are classified as “hot” or “cold” based on their brutality.

Andrew Read, who co-led the study, had heard about the severe effects of the hottest Marek’s strains before his lab started studying the disease about a decade ago, but even he was surprised when he finally saw the virus in action.

“With the hottest strains, every unvaccinated bird dies within 10 days. There is no human virus that is that hot. Ebola, for example, doesn’t kill everything in 10 days,” said Read, who is an evolutionary biologist at Penn State University.

Edited August 13, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

I am going to post the rest of that article. I think anyone who is unvaccinated should read it carefully...

In recent years, experts have wondered if leaky vaccines were to blame for the emergence of these hot strains. The 1970s introduction of the Marek’s disease immunizations for baby chicks kept the poultry industry from collapse, but people soon learned that vaccinated birds were catching “the bug” without subsequently dying. Then, over the last half century, symptoms for Marek’s worsened. Paralysis was more permanent; brains more quickly turned to mush.

“People suspected the vaccine, but the problem was that it was never shown before experimentally,” said virologist Klaus Osterrieder of the Free University of Berlin, who wasn’t involved in the study. “The field has talked about these types of experiments for a very long time, and I’m really glad to see the work finally done.”

Read’s group started their investigation by exposing vaccinated and unvaccinated Rhode Island Red chickens to one of five Marek’s disease strains that ranged from hot to cold. The hottest strains killed every unvaccinated bird within 10 days, and the team noticed that barely any virus was shed from the feathers of the chickens during that time. (The virus spreads via contaminated dust in chicken coops). In contrast, vaccination extended the lifespan of birds exposed to the hottest strains, with 80 percent living longer than two months. But the vaccinated chickens were transmitting the virus, shedding 10,000 times more virus than an unvaccinated bird.

“Previously, a hot strain was so nasty, it wiped itself out. Now, you keep its host alive with a vaccine, then it can transmit and spread in the world,” Read said. “So it’s got an evolutionary future, which it didn’t have before.”

But does this evolutionary future breed more dangerous viruses?

This study argues yes. In a second experiment, unvaccinated and vaccinated chickens were infected with one of the five Marek’s disease strains, and then put into a second arena with a second set of unimmunized birds, known as sentinels. In particular, the team was interested in a middle-of-the-road strain called “595” and whether it would become hotter.

It did. The virus spread to sentinel birds nine days faster if it came from a vaccinated chicken versus an unvaccinated one. In addition, sentinels died faster when exposed to vaccinated chickens versus unvaccinated chickens.

“One way to look at that experiment is that shows vaccinating birds kills unvaccinated birds. The vaccination of one group of birds leads to the transmission of a virus so hot that it kills the other birds, said Read said. “If you vaccinate the mothers, the same thing happens. The offspring are protected by the maternal antibodies of the mother and that allows the virus in the chicks to transmit before they kill the host. So they transmit and kill the other individuals.”

This trend persisted when the team tried the experiment in a setting meant to simulate a commercial chicken farm.

“At the moment, the vaccines are working well enough, and you can vaccinate every bird,” Read said. “There are 20 billion birds on the planet at any time; the vast majority are Marek’s vaccinated.”

However, both Read and Osterrieder worry about what might happen if Marek’s continues to change or if its vaccines were to fail.

“If the virus continues to evolve, then it could be pretty devastating for the chicken industry, which is suffering quite a bit right now in the U.S. with the influenza virus,” Osterrieder said.

Like Marek’s vaccines, vaccines for avian influenza are leaky. For this reason, they’re banned from agricultural use in the U.S. and Europe. When bird flu breaks out in these western chicken populations, farmers must cull their herds. However, Southeast Asia uses these leaky vaccines, raising the possibility for virus evolution akin to what’s happened with Marek’s disease.

“In those situations, they’re creating the conditions where super hot avian influenza could emerge,” Read said. “Then the issues become what does that mean when it spills over into other flocks, into wildlife or into humans. Avian flu is the setting to watch for evolutionary problems down the line.”

Bird flu isn’t alone. The world’s first vaccine for malaria, which was recently approved by European Medicines Agency, is also leaky. Vaccines for HPV and whooping cough can leak too; however it is unknown if this scenario creates more dangerous viruses for each of these diseases.

“Our concern here, primarily and foremost, is whether this is going to happen with any of the vaccines that we give to people,” said molecular biology James Bull of the University of Texas Austin, who specializes in the evolution of viruses and bacteria. “But there is a lot we don’t know about how the scenario with Marek’s could apply to newer human vaccines.”

To test the imperfect vaccine hypothesis in humans, you would need monitor the vaccine response for either a large or isolated population for a long time. Doing this would allow a researcher to gauge how the vaccine interacts with the virus and if that relationship is evolving. Does the vaccine merely reduce symptoms, or does it also keep patients from getting infected and transmitting the virus?

Clinical trials for Ebola might be an arena for keeping an eye on this trend.

“It’s important that we pay close attention to the Ebola vaccine in the ongoing trials. We want to know if a person who has been vaccinated and comes in contact with Ebola, whether there is any virus replication in that person and whether that means there could be onward transmission,” Read said. “If those are leaky in humans, it would be potentially very disadvantageous as it could help establish an endemic.”

However, in the end, Read said, leakiness isn’t a strike against these vaccines, but more motivation to conduct surveillance of their effects after they exit clinical trials and enter the broader population. Take Marek’s disease for example.

“Even if this evolution happens, you don’t want to be an unvaccinated chicken,” Read said. “Food chain security and everything rests on vaccines. They are the most successful and cheapest public health interventions that we’ve ever had. We just need to consider the evolutionary consequences of these ones with leaky transmission.”

[thplinth]

Well I have to confess... I have never personally been concerned about the virus. I fully understand people on here have suffered huge personal loss and I certainly don't mean to diminish what is going in any way. I just mean I felt the best thing for me was to just catch it and hopefully get over it. I am pretty certain I have but without strong / any symptoms I can't be sure.

As I said I probably would have queued up for Sputnik V when it first came out but they played politics with it and I just thought 'what in the fuck is all this actually about here?'. People were dying in large numbers, nursing home scandal etc etc yet because they dont like Putin no vaccine for yous yet... insanity. And then much later it is all 'but now it is imperative you take ours'... go fuck yourselves was my feeling on that...

I also was of the macro-view that even with no vaccine it would only kill a small % of the population. Bad yes, but not catastrophic bad.

But reading that paper and the PBS interview above. I am actually now very worried. Not just for myself now but also the macro risk to the population as a whole.

Fucking Joe Rogan. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by thplinth

[phart]

Again the guy who wrote the study

What really gets me, apart from the fact that I do think this is a public health threat–[that] people who are arguing against vaccinations are doing other people great harm. Apart from that, I really get concerned that this sort of disinformation, or this inappropriate interpretation means that it's very difficult for us scientists to actually ask serious questions about how evolution might proceed and get a good look at it because we get this concern that our work will be taken and twisted.”

“Those of us who are very interested in the way the evolution might go, have trouble doing the work, or at least talking about it, because of the concern that people like Joe Rogan will twist it and use it in the wrong way.”

“I think we have a moral obligation as scientists and public health people to look at the evolution going forward, keep a good eye on it, make sure that if anything is happening that we don't like, that we rapidly develop vaccines to pick it up and sort it out. I can't see any scenario where we can't address possible evolutionary consequences by tweaking the vaccines or [by developing] next-generation vaccines. Vaccines are the way out of this.”

Edited August 13, 2021 by phart

[thplinth]

"The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out"

That was the quote from the Israeli doctor in the hospital I originally quoted in that twitter post. They are also talking about the need for a third booster jab for the over 60's etc.

This can't quite be correct though can it. The vaccines are brand new. it is not 'waning' or 'fading out'. It surely has to be that the virus is getting 'hotter'.

The new risk is that first the unvaccinated get utterly malkied and then eventually the virus gets so hot and nasty that it gets ahead of the vaccines and then it severely malkies the vaccinated too.

Compare those risks to the original risk of just letting it run its course and going for herd immunity over time. What a gamble we are taking...

I must say I don't like the way this is playing out. I might have to get vaccinated just to protect myself from the vaccinated. FFS... 

[phart]

16 hours ago, phart said:

 

We had a peer reviewed study yesterday about effectiveness of vaccine.

The tweet didn't even have the right figures and also he spoke in Hebrew so perhaps you can provide a transcript of what he said as I can't speak Hebrew, i'm assuming you can.

It is measured effectiveness against symptomatic disease.

Edited August 13, 2021 by phart

[Morrisandmoo]

13 minutes ago, thplinth said:

"The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out"

That was the quote from the Israeli doctor in the hospital I originally quoted in that twitter post. They are also talking about the need for a third booster jab for the over 60's etc.

This can't quite be correct though can it. The vaccines are brand new. it is not 'waning' or 'fading out'. It surely has to be that the virus is getting 'hotter'.

The new risk is that first the unvaccinated get utterly malkied and then eventually the virus gets so hot and nasty that it gets ahead of the vaccines and then it severely malkies the vaccinated too.

Compare those risks to the original risk of just letting it run its course and going for herd immunity over time. What a gamble we are taking...

I must say I don't like the way this is playing out. I might have to get vaccinated just to protect myself from the vaccinated. FFS... 

Joe Rogan and Israeli doctors...come on to fuck mate. 

 

[thplinth]

We are hearing many reports of people with the vaccination catching covid. We are also being told 'but it is ok as they don't get as sick as the unvaccinated'. So it still spreads among the vaccinated but it protects them from getting it too bad we are told. Well that sounds very similar to the leaky vaccine in the poultry situation.

If the unvaccinated population start succumbing to it in significantly greater numbers than before that will be a strong indicator it is happening.

If the vaccines themselves do start to fade or wane then it will also be another strong indicator it is happening. They will start to say you need to update the vaccine every year, six months whatever as the virus gets hotter and hotter.

And that is the thing that shocked me reading that article. This leaky vaccine did not make it just 'worse', that is understating it a lot. It has created something that is frighteningly deadly and without vaccines it would rip through the poultry population with a near 100% kill rate. All these birds are totally dependent on vaccines just to survive the very short lives they already have. (Ka-ching for someone)

That should be concerning us all. I can see why some people have said we are in a massive experiment. 

I hope to fuck they know what they are doing and that it is the right thing.

(Sadly very doubtful on both counts. ) 

Edited August 13, 2021 by thplinth

[Morrisandmoo]

43 minutes ago, phart said:

Again the guy who wrote the study

What really gets me, apart from the fact that I do think this is a public health threat–[that] people who are arguing against vaccinations are doing other people great harm. Apart from that, I really get concerned that this sort of disinformation, or this inappropriate interpretation means that it's very difficult for us scientists to actually ask serious questions about how evolution might proceed and get a good look at it because we get this concern that our work will be taken and twisted.”

“Those of us who are very interested in the way the evolution might go, have trouble doing the work, or at least talking about it, because of the concern that people like Joe Rogan will twist it and use it in the wrong way.”

“I think we have a moral obligation as scientists and public health people to look at the evolution going forward, keep a good eye on it, make sure that if anything is happening that we don't like, that we rapidly develop vaccines to pick it up and sort it out. I can't see any scenario where we can't address possible evolutionary consequences by tweaking the vaccines or [by developing] next-generation vaccines. Vaccines are the way out of this.”

A powerful articulation of a real problem. These conspiracy theories are fueled on nuggets of truth, real risks taken out of context. 

But I also think that science is not just for scientists and shouldn't be conducted behind closed doors.  Research often touches on far wider issues (ethics, risk, resources) that need to be discussed/debated in the general public to inform  policy-makers. 

We shouldn't allow the manipulation of research to stifle public debate and should take heart in the fact that not many people actually make choices based on Joe Rogan's theories (when it really matters) despite what they might share on social media. 

[phart]

The metric used was symptomatic infection regarding the efficacy, current real world data puts pfizier at 88% for Delta.

Delta also originated before there were vaccines anyway in an unvaccinated population so all that side of the noise is completely irrelevant.

However folk have been studying vaccination and mutation in sars cov-2 Delta and here is the prelimenary results.

This study presents the first evidence that full vaccination against COVID-19 suppresses emergent mutations of SARS-CoV-2 delta variants.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.08.21261768v1

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by phart

[phart]

Also another study going through peer-review

Here, we conducted longitudinal analysis over 1.8 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 183 countries or territories to capture vaccination-associated viral evolutionary patterns. To augment this macroscale analysis, we performed viral genome sequencing in 23 vaccine breakthrough COVID-19 patients and 30 unvaccinated COVID-19 patients for whom we also conducted machine-augmented curation of the electronic health records (EHRs). Strikingly, we find the diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 lineages is declining at the country-level with increased rate of mass vaccination

This study presents the first known evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are fundamentally restricting the evolutionary and antigenic escape pathways accessible to SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1

 

Does a systematic study of 1.8 million covid genomes rank higher or lower than the opinion of the Ultimate Fighting Championships colour commentator on the interpetation of a 2015 paper into chicken vaccination on the scale of evidence?

Edited August 13, 2021 by phart

[thplinth]

You really don't have to read anymore than the Author Summary (a very well written, clear and succinct little paragraph I found) and the article in PBS above. The advantage of both is, it was 2015 and none of this pandemic stuff existed so they are all talking relatively freely (although even then they still have to make it crystal clear he is not saying vaccines are overall a bad idea etc etc.). 

In the current climate this could easily be a career ending moment for all of them if they step out of line. 

If you do want to get a bit dark... what might worry you is that it is still possible if not probable that this virus is the result of 'gain of function' research in coronaviruses which then somehow escaped the lab, possibly Fort Detrick or in the lab in Wuhan (does it really matter at this point? all funded by the same groups anyway it seems).

If that is true then you have to wonder what the 'gains of function' achieved exactly were and how exactly they will now play out.

Especially so if we are effectively hotboxing the virus with leaky vaccines.

A suspicious person might start to think 'they' were actually trying kill us. 

[phart]

 

[Morrisandmoo]

1 hour ago, thplinth said:

You really don't have to read anymore than the Author Summary (a very well written, clear and succinct little paragraph I found) and the article in PBS above. The advantage of both is, it was 2015 and none of this pandemic stuff existed so they are all talking relatively freely (although even then they still have to make it crystal clear he is not saying vaccines are overall a bad idea etc etc.). 

In the current climate this could easily be a career ending moment for all of them if they step out of line. 

If you do want to get a bit dark... what might worry you is that it is still possible if not probable that this virus is the result of 'gain of function' research in coronaviruses which then somehow escaped the lab, possibly Fort Detrick or in the lab in Wuhan (does it really matter at this point? all funded by the same groups anyway it seems).

If that is true then you have to wonder what the 'gains of function' achieved exactly were and how exactly they will now play out.

Especially so if we are effectively hotboxing the virus with leaky vaccines.

A suspicious person might start to think 'they' were actually trying kill us. 

Do you think vaccines and modern medicine overall is a bad idea?

Are you a suspicious person and do you think they are actually trying to kill us?

[Auchinyell Sox Change]

News just in Canada

federally regulated employees ; travel by rail , train , boat thru provincial border ( obviously international too..) requires proof of full vaccination….

( incidentally gen election pending )

Scotty assume that would be Canada Post too ?

[Scotty CTA]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:31 AM, thplinth said:

Interesting, the AZ one is one the 'old school' vector vaccines I believe and the pfizer one is one the MRNA jobs. The Sputnik one is a vector one also I think. As is the J&J one (the one jab one).

Did you have any noticeable reactions to either Scotty? Swelling or redness, sore joints, a fever, fatigue...

No, zero side effects.

My girlfriend got AZ then Moderna and had a slightly sore arm both times.

On 8/12/2021 at 9:31 AM, thplinth said:

...an overwhelming compulsion to obey the government...

Still a rebel.

On 8/12/2021 at 9:31 AM, thplinth said:

...loss of your eternal soul? 

My eternal soul is guaranteed. 

Thing is, I don't (and can't) know all the ins and outs of the plandemic or the vaccines.

Not worried about either killing me, so, picking by battles, I asked my girlfriend what decision she'd be happiest with (and I went with that).

Isaiah 54:17 "no weapon that is fashioned against you shall succeed" 

[Scotty CTA]

9 hours ago, Auchinyell Sox Change said:

News just in Canada

federally regulated employees ; travel by rail , train , boat thru provincial border ( obviously international too..) requires proof of full vaccination….

( incidentally gen election pending )

Scotty assume that would be Canada Post too ?

I'd imagine so, but our Premier here in Ontario has been against vaccine passports from the off.

Go back to work after next week, so will get all the specifics then.

[phart]

23 hours ago, phart said:

The metric used was symptomatic infection regarding the efficacy, current real world data puts pfizier at 88% for Delta.

Delta also originated before there were vaccines anyway in an unvaccinated population so all that side of the noise is completely irrelevant.

However folk have been studying vaccination and mutation in sars cov-2 Delta and here is the prelimenary results.

This study presents the first evidence that full vaccination against COVID-19 suppresses emergent mutations of SARS-CoV-2 delta variants.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.08.21261768v1

 

 

There's a counter argument against this though

 

[Newryrep]

Can anybody explain why the nhs Covid passport hasn’t been accepted as equivalent to an Eu Covid pass ? And why those vaccinated in the UK still have to test ?

was hoping to go to the Portugal game ( though we aren’t getting tickets now) but UK vaccinated have to test 3 times at the guts of £250 while EU Covid pass holders don’t

[chaff]

On 8/12/2021 at 4:58 PM, Lamia said:

Did people always cough or did I just not notice. Everywhere I go people are coughing and some don't even bother covering their mouth 🙄  and it isn't even winter yet! ☹️

 

yes they did. People are clatty.

Before my current work i worked in a bookshop (remember them?) Every year i would get colds, mouth ulcers and every couple of years tonsilitis.

People in the shop coughing, spluttering, sneezing and putting banknotes in their mouth as they search for change before handing the soggy banknote to me in payment. A few times id refuse.

This led me to exacting revenge on the public. I'd snap children's crayons as i put them in the customers bag, I kept a magnet under the till and would rub the magnetic strip of their bank card or credit card when they weren't looking, I don't know if this had any effect the next time they went to the shop but it gave me a sense of warmth.

Anyway, I now work outside in the fresh air on my own. I've not had tonsilitis or even a mouth ulcer in 15 years.

 

 

[Orraloon]

10 hours ago, Newryrep said:

Can anybody explain why the nhs Covid passport hasn’t been accepted as equivalent to an Eu Covid pass ? And why those vaccinated in the UK still have to test ?

was hoping to go to the Portugal game ( though we aren’t getting tickets now) but UK vaccinated have to test 3 times at the guts of £250 while EU Covid pass holders don’t

Is it not just another one of those "Brexit bonuses"?

[Newryrep]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Is it not just another one of those "Brexit bonuses"?

Possibly/ probably but after about a 4 week lag re vaccinations the EU has caught up or is catching up 

 

Ireland has a higher % fully vaccinated than the UK and just passed the Uk % 1st dosed helped in part that you need to be fully vaccinated to avail of indoor dining and travel 

 

why aren’t the media questioning the testing ? Somebody is clearly making a lot of money from it 

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, Newryrep said:

Possibly/ probably but after about a 4 week lag re vaccinations the EU has caught up or is catching up 

 

Ireland has a higher % fully vaccinated than the UK and just passed the Uk % 1st dosed helped in part that you need to be fully vaccinated to avail of indoor dining and travel 

 

why aren’t the media questioning the testing ? Somebody is clearly making a lot of money from it 

My question was more to do with the UK having not contributed to the EU Vaccination certificate scheme, so the EU have said "sorry you can't use our system you'll have to come up with your own, but there is no guarantee that we will approve your system". I don't know if that is correct, but that's the question I was asking. 

[phart]

I suspect it is political of that nature. Not really read about it that much beyond some batches of AZ since they were produced in India might not automatically be approved for the vaccine passport program either.

[Newryrep]

37 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

My question was more to do with the UK having not contributed to the EU Vaccination certificate scheme, so the EU have said "sorry you can't use our system you'll have to come up with your own, but there is no guarantee that we will approve your system". I don't know if that is correct, but that's the question I was asking. 

I get that they are fully within their right not to recognise it , it just seems a bit odd that they currently dont recognise it at least for vaccines the EMA have approved eg Pfizer , moderna etc  ( noted that the indian Astra Zeneca isnt EMA approved AFAIK though i beleive the NHS one does states which AZ you got) 

and the media seem to be blind to it  and not even questioning the testing costs and the need for them 

Plenty of european passport holders have been vaccinated in the UK, maybe they are leaving it up to individual countries  

Irish passport holders in UK can get the EU covid passport 'shorlty' though given the politician in question wouldnt define shortly i would expect it any time soon. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Newryrep
later post