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15 hours ago, phart said:

I think masks came in july 24th 2020 for shops, it was June 15th for public transport and NHS facilities. However before that there was a host of NPI's in that period from 23rd of March 2020 when lockdown was enacted and 15th of June when first opening of non-essential shops.

Cases fell cause of the lockdown. We aren't operating in the same conditions atm. We're also no longer on the original strain either so it's apples and oranges anyway.

This is now the god knows how many iteration of this sort of simplistic reasoning during the pandemic. We've had casedemic nonsense, hydrochloroquine, false positives, lockdown causes deaths, now we have facemasks cause tragic development issues.

Just absolute unevidenced mumbo-jumbo. Just saying anything to try and get your own way regardless of it';s relationship with reality.

😂

I was on the train last night. There was a woman with a wee boy sitting opposite a maskless cretin who was screaming sectarian shit down the phone to a woman , and constantly calling her sister a fucking fat cow, amongst other things . The wee boy looked scared stiff. 
Rather than create development issues,  compulsory face masks could go some way to improving child development by way of muzzling morons like him. 

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On 8/3/2021 at 2:12 PM, Squirrelhumper said:

How many folk died based on football attendance? 

Do you want to trot out any more stock phrases which demonstrates your inability to grasp the complexity of the pandemic.

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13 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

GCC look like they are going to allow capacity crowds next week for all clubs in their area. 

Hopefully all councils do likewise. 

Well anyone who listened to Nicola Sturgeons update would have know that already. It was blindingly obvious that the purpose of permission was just to ensure all approbate measures were in place to manage it not to restrict numbers

Edited by Lamia
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39 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Well anyone who listened to Nicola Sturgeons update would have know that already. It was blindingly obvious that the purpose of permission was just to ensure all approbate measures were in place to manage it not to restrict numbers

Nicola Sturgeons deputy doesnt even know the rules, so not sure why the general public should take what any of them say at face value.

In a capacity crowd what kind of "measures" need to be in place?

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What a surprise. The supposedly independent JCVI have now 'approved' vaccines for use in 16 & 17 year olds,  coincidentally just as we receive our next big delivery of the Pfizer vaccine.

A bit of transparency would not go amiss. What would be wrong with saying that they are happy to approve the Pfizer vaccine for use in all teenagers, but that there are currently supply constraints and vaccinations cant proceed until supplies permit.

 

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50 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Do you want to trot out any more stock phrases which demonstrates your inability to grasp the complexity of the pandemic.

My tongue on cheek comment was aimed at the daft rules around football crowds which make little sense, especially given that clubs are about to go from 20% crowds (killie), to 100% in a week.

Couldnt even get a drink on monday at the killie game. Seeing as you understand the complexity of the pandemic are you able to explain the science behind that? Kiosks not allowed open but if we had burger vans that would be allowed.

Rules for the sake of rules. Bit like face coverings in a stadium 20% full. Waste of time when you are "allowed" to sit in a pub beer garden with 15 folk but cant sit next to somebody at the football. 

Swinney and Leitch making stuff up as they go along this week on nightclubs etc just about sum up their handling on the pandemic. I literally making up stuff on the spot then backtracking hours later.

I honestly wouldn't blame anyone in hospitality for refusing to vote SNP. I'm beginning to wonder why I do myself as they are struggling with the day to day job, job even taking into account the pandemic (drugs deaths, education etc) so have little faith in them ever getting close to independence. 

All grievance politics and virtue signalling without any real substance sadly.

If there is no social distancing then I dont see the reasoning behind applying for crowds over 5000 except governments wanting control.

 

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13 minutes ago, tartandon said:

What a surprise. The supposedly independent JCVI have now 'approved' vaccines for use in 16 & 17 year olds,  coincidentally just as we receive our next big delivery of the Pfizer vaccine.

A bit of transparency would not go amiss. What would be wrong with saying that they are happy to approve the Pfizer vaccine for use in all teenagers, but that there are currently supply constraints and vaccinations cant proceed until supplies permit.

 

It had already been approved by the MHRA back in June for 12-15 year olds. The delivery is about 4 or 5 weeks ago by the way.

You might be right but it's hard to be certin with the data available.

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18 hours ago, Lamia said:

Well anyone who listened to Nicola Sturgeons update would have know that already. It was blindingly obvious that the purpose of permission was just to ensure all approbate measures were in place to manage it not to restrict numbers

In which case it's extremely bad policy making. 

The appropriate policy would be to say: all venues permitted to open, but required to follow procedure X, Y and Z. Then you enforce those general rules through exceptional interventions. E.g. you are not following rules: guidance; warning 1; warning 2; licence revoked. 

Requiring case by case approvals by local councils, applying vague and differing criteria, in order to enforce what is intended to be a general rule is just terrible governance and bureaucracy. Although to be fair local council's don't have enough to do and are extremely efficient at their job.....

This stuff surely gets taught on day one of policy-making school.  

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Given most bar staff are in the younger age category many of whom will not have had the change to be double vaccinated I think allowing people to drink at the bar is incredibly unfair to say the least.

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2 minutes ago, phart said:

No herd immunity possible then,, just reduction into an endemic as you get the virus a few times during your lifetime.

That study is based on the current vaccines. Things might change as we develop new vaccines. But of course, this time next year, we will probably be dealing with a different new variant which will have slightly different properties? Maybe one of the next few variants will be more infectious but much less harmful and we end up just just living with it, a bit like the common cold. But it could go the other way as well. We are still in the very early days of the evolution of this virus.

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47 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

That study is based on the current vaccines. Things might change as we develop new vaccines. But of course, this time next year, we will probably be dealing with a different new variant which will have slightly different properties? Maybe one of the next few variants will be more infectious but much less harmful and we end up just just living with it, a bit like the common cold. But it could go the other way as well. We are still in the very early days of the evolution of this virus.

The current vaccines have reduced the severity of disease right down, we should really be rolling them out world-wide as opposed to trying to make new ones. We're super lucky Delta spreading everywhere else is a problem, places with no vaccine coverage.

There's 4 variants of concern Alpha-Beta-Gamma and Delta. The vaccine seems to work really well against severe disease for all of them.

We will have to live with it, there was a scientist called Ian Mckay I think he is based in aus and right at the start he mused if perhaps we were seeing an emergence of a standard cornonavirus in "real-time" and it's looking like he is right.

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34 minutes ago, phart said:

The current vaccines have reduced the severity of disease right down, we should really be rolling them out world-wide as opposed to trying to make new ones. We're super lucky Delta spreading everywhere else is a problem, places with no vaccine coverage.

There's 4 variants of concern Alpha-Beta-Gamma and Delta. The vaccine seems to work really well against severe disease for all of them.

We will have to live with it, there was a scientist called Ian Mckay I think he is based in aus and right at the start he mused if perhaps we were seeing an emergence of a standard cornonavirus in "real-time" and it's looking like he is right.

I think we should be doing both. 

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Another study came out regarding Football specifically Euros and Covid

Our results suggest that the steep increase in cases among men aged 20–39 years probably occurred as a result of more frequent social gatherings surrounding the EURO 2020 matches, rather than from official EURO 2020 events [6]. At official EURO matches and fan zones, efforts were made to ensure proper ventilation and encourage social distancing.

 

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.31.2100707#html_fulltext

Proably inside parties or pubs etc as opposed to attendance at games though.

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3 hours ago, phart said:

The current vaccines have reduced the severity of disease right down, we should really be rolling them out world-wide as opposed to trying to make new ones. We're super lucky Delta spreading everywhere else is a problem, places with no vaccine coverage.

There's 4 variants of concern Alpha-Beta-Gamma and Delta. The vaccine seems to work really well against severe disease for all of them.

We will have to live with it, there was a scientist called Ian Mckay I think he is based in aus and right at the start he mused if perhaps we were seeing an emergence of a standard cornonavirus in "real-time" and it's looking like he is right.

Each of the 4 'primary' mutations have emerged in areas of high prevalence.

The longer the viirus is allowed to circulate, the higher the risk of mutations. The more mutations there are, the higher the risk that we could have a deadline version that is vaccine resistant. The only way to prevent this is to roll out the vaccine globally.

A more deadly virus with a very short incubation period is actually easier to contain. This is the case with Ebola which has a short incubation and kills the host reasonably quickly.

The longer incubation period of Covid 19 poses a challenge to contain it. If a deadlier vaccine-resistant variant with a longer incubation develops, we are in big trouble. Such a variant is more likely to emerge in a country with a lower vaccination coverage. SO global vaccination has to be a priority and the main challenge for that is production and supply.

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1 hour ago, tartandon said:

Each of the 4 'primary' mutations have emerged in areas of high prevalence.

The longer the viirus is allowed to circulate, the higher the risk of mutations. The more mutations there are, the higher the risk that we could have a deadline version that is vaccine resistant. The only way to prevent this is to roll out the vaccine globally.

A more deadly virus with a very short incubation period is actually easier to contain. This is the case with Ebola which has a short incubation and kills the host reasonably quickly.

The longer incubation period of Covid 19 poses a challenge to contain it. If a deadlier vaccine-resistant variant with a longer incubation develops, we are in big trouble. Such a variant is more likely to emerge in a country with a lower vaccination coverage. SO global vaccination has to be a priority and the main challenge for that is production and supply.

I agree the priority should be vaccinating as many people as possible.

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good essay on how it is novelty which means viruses are more dangerous, this is just the start of it by the way. It continues in the link before,

SARS-CoV-2 is new to our immune systems. That makes it very dangerous. Viruses that are new to us spread faster and are more lethal than old familiar ones.

Some scientists are tempted to chalk this up to evolution. The argument is that a virus that leaves its host alive will outcompete one that kills its host. Viruses do sometimes become less deadly as they adapt to a new host species (like us), but they also sometimes become more deadly. But whether wrong or right for a given virus, this tempting just-so story can be a distraction.

Novelty is bad regardless of virus evolution. 

When a virus is new, nobody possesses acquired immune protection against it. Acquired immune protection is a different kind of adaptation: not virus evolution, but our own learned—adaptive—immunity. We build over our lifetimes as we encounter new pathogens and learn how to fend them off.

If nobody has adaptive immune protection, a virus spreads faster. Even a few immune individuals in a population can meaningfully slow the rate of virus spread, since they are less likely to become infectious and infect others. If there are enough immune individuals, the virus may not be able to spread at all. This is the logic of population immunity and herd immunity. It is important. We talk about it a lot.

If nobody has adaptive immune protection, a virus causes severe disease in more of the people it infects. This is also important. We don't talk about it enough.

Unless we eradicate SARS-CoV-2—possible but not likely, especially in the short term—just about everyone is going to encounter the virus sooner or later. But those who have adaptive immunity from infection or vaccination may not get sick at all. Even if they do, they will be less likely to get very sick or die. 

Now that we have safe, effective vaccines, we can give people immunity without causing dangerous disease. That puts us into a global race against the virus. The more people who see the vaccine before they see SARS-CoV-2, the fewer severe cases, long-term health problems, and deaths. Faster worldwide rollout will save lives. It really is that simple.

 

https://www.theinsight.org/p/novelty-means-severity-the-key-to

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