AlfieMoon Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 hours ago, phart said: 3,613 new cases of COVID-19 reported 36,295 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results 10.6% of these were positive Must be testing for schools. Suddenly shot up almost vertical on the graph. I didn’t think the lateral flow testing counted towards the daily figures? Do they? Or are you meaning that LFD testing is increasing with schools return and that is highlighting positive cases which are then validated by PCR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said: I didn’t think the lateral flow testing counted towards the daily figures? Do they? Or are you meaning that LFD testing is increasing with schools return and that is highlighting positive cases which are then validated by PCR? The number of new cases is the number of individuals who have had a new positive test result reported in the previous 24 hours. This refers to the date of the result and not the date of the test. From 15 June 2020 this number includes people testing positive through the UK Government testing programme (regional testing centres, mobile testing units, care home portal and home kits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 hours ago, phart said: What specifically is funny? Reported cases are too low? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said: I didn’t think the lateral flow testing counted towards the daily figures? Do they? Or are you meaning that LFD testing is increasing with schools return and that is highlighting positive cases which are then validated by PCR? Lateral flow tests are only counter in England which makes England's data ever more odd https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases Edited August 20, 2021 by Lamia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Lamia said: Lateral flow tests are only counter in England which makes England's data ever more odd https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases my copy paste is from scot gov website says home tests count https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-data-definitions-and-sources/ Edited August 20, 2021 by phart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morrisandmoo Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 On 8/19/2021 at 1:59 PM, phart said: I think we should get folk first jags over third jags. Really? You would vaccinate two year olds straightaway? Very stupid imo (sorry spoiler!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Morrisandmoo said: Really? You would vaccinate two year olds straightaway? Very stupid imo (sorry spoiler!) No the rest of the world. I'll be clearer in future so the smarter folk can understand the basic point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morrisandmoo Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, phart said: No the rest of the world. I'll be clearer in future so the smarter folk can understand the basic point. Aye I agree. I knew you meant that as well. Sorry being unnecessarily argumentative/bitchy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Morrisandmoo said: Aye I agree. I knew you meant that as well. Sorry being unnecessarily argumentative/bitchy. Not doing anything i've not done before! All good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 13 hours ago, phart said: my copy paste is from scot gov website says home tests count https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-data-definitions-and-sources/ Does it say lateral flow tests. You can do home PCR tests. I don't know how they avoid double counting if lateral flow tests are included as you need to get a PCR test if you have a positive lateral flow test and people are not routinely reporting the results of these either. Makes no sense to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Lamia said: Does it say lateral flow tests. You can do home PCR tests. I don't know how they avoid double counting if lateral flow tests are included as you need to get a PCR test if you have a positive lateral flow test and people are not routinely reporting the results of these either. Makes no sense to me On the Travelling tabby site it says this - "A new case is someone who has tested positive for the virus on a PCR test." I don't think LFT tests are counted until they have been confirmed by a PCR test. So I'm pretty sure LFT tests aren't counted in "tests conducted" either. That would just be daft. But, then again, a lot of daft things have happened during this pandemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Ah fair enough I didn't know that although once you fail a LFT you'll then take a PCR test so the validation method that alfie talked about might come in. I had to register each test i took personally so just assumed it was all counted up. had unique reference etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 10 hours ago, Orraloon said: On the Travelling tabby site it says this - "A new case is someone who has tested positive for the virus on a PCR test." I don't think LFT tests are counted until they have been confirmed by a PCR test. So I'm pretty sure LFT tests aren't counted in "tests conducted" either. That would just be daft. But, then again, a lot of daft things have happened during this pandemic. I agree which is why I don't get the bit on the UK dashboard that says Lateral flow tests are counted in England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, Lamia said: I agree which is why I don't get the bit on the UK dashboard that says Lateral flow tests are counted in England. I was wrong in my asummption on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, phart said: I was wrong in my asummption on that. I wasn't referring to your post I was referring to this on the UK Gov dashboard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 England is counting LFT. This is what is making their cases look low but I still don't get how they are doing this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tartandon Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 23 hours ago, Lamia said: England is counting LFT. This is what is making their cases look low but I still don't get how they are doing this. That's why I also think there's something funny about the English numbers. Lateral Flow tests aren't all that reliable. Hence why if somebody has symptoms up here they are advised to get a PCR test rather than take a lateral flow test. Up here, LFTs should only be used if you have no symptoms, and if you get a positive results on a LFT, you have to book a PCR and isolate until you get the PCR results back. The unreliability of the LFTs is also why everybody is supposed to take a LFT at home before they leave home to go into any piublic space. By taking LFTs every day you leave home, this flattens the risk of false positives and false negatives from them. If you do not have Covid, but test positive via a LFT, you will test negitive from the follow-up PCR. If you do have Covid and test negative from a LFT, you are less likely to have another false negative when you take a test the next day. The fact that England is including LFT results in their figures is quite worrying. Given that their intended use is for asymptomatic people to confirm they do not have the virus, this means that the overwhelming majority should be negative. Counting these in with lab-tested PCR results will immediately lower the positivity rate by a significant margin. The growth in numbers of positive PCR results in Scotland over the past ten days is quite alarming. 3,000+ cases per day is very worrying. Imagine what the numbers would be if we didn't have such a decent amount of the population vaccinated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 I don't think the increase in Scotland is because of increased testing with the schools going back as the hospital admissions seem to be going up again. I cannot see how this is going to end well now we have the onset of autumn in our sights there is nothing that will bring cases down as we are well on with vaccinations too. I am amazed at what people seem prepared to do and think is safe all of a sudden. It is not just that they have decided they need to "live with covid" they actually seem to think the risk has diminished! 🤨 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, Lamia said: I don't think the increase in Scotland is because of increased testing with the schools going back as the hospital admissions seem to be going up again. I cannot see how this is going to end well now we have the onset of autumn in our sights there is nothing that will bring cases down as we are well on with vaccinations too. I am amazed at what people seem prepared to do and think is safe all of a sudden. It is not just that they have decided they need to "live with covid" they actually seem to think the risk has diminished! 🤨 Time will tell I guess. People have indeed decided they need to “live with Covid” as you have said, I don’t think that’s surprising. Regarding the second part of your sentence - surely the risk has diminished, at least for those vaccinated. Isn’t that the point of what we’ve all been working towards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said: Time will tell I guess. People have indeed decided they need to “live with Covid” as you have said, I don’t think that’s surprising. Regarding the second part of your sentence - surely the risk has diminished, at least for those vaccinated. Isn’t that the point of what we’ve all been working towards? The risk of ending up in hospital is less but the more people infected then the more will end up there. The risk might end up being greater than is was with lower cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaff Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 10 hours ago, Lamia said: The risk of ending up in hospital is less but the more people infected then the more will end up there. The risk might end up being greater than is was with lower cases. is it not a certain age group that is getting covid? I've recently returned to Parkrun, only in a volunteering capacity though. Twice being a barcode scanner. people hold out both barcodes and the new app scans, they then drop their token in a bucket, I dont need to be near them or touch anything, we had 393 runners at the first one and just over 300 on saturday there. Me and michelle went into Glasgow for the first time in 18 months this weekend too, train was a bit strange, possibly the longest ive had to wear a facemask for. we went to a few shops then a restaurant. it was fine. Didnt go to any pubs just back up the road after our meal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Think this demonstrates how dodgy England's rates are, pretty much no impact of opening up yet increases in all other nations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 (edited) Looking at the hospital charts on the UK dashboard the big drop in the case rate in July has not seen a drop in hospital cases in England whereas the hospital charts for Scotland reflect the case rates much more closely. Edited August 24, 2021 by Lamia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 11 hours ago, phart said: Very interesting stuff. The "Simpson's paradox" is kinda hard to get your round, but just shows how easy it is to look at the numbers and come to the wrong conclusions if you don't fully understand what the numbers are telling you. I wonder if it was Bart or Homer that came up with that one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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