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17 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Good bit of heard immunity by time the winter comes. 

They won't say it but given the high % of the population double dunted now (especially in over 40s) then i think they are happy just to ride this out. 

Can't live stop start lives forever. Cases are high, however hospital admissions aren't reflective of that compared to Jan/Feb when we had few vaccinated. 

Worst thing Sturgeon did during this (apart from the care home scandal) is come out with zero covid nonsense. It was never going to happen and you only need to look at OZ/NZ to see the fuck up that is turning out to be.  Slow vaccine role out and a lot more vaccine sceptics than over here which isn't going to end well. 

Nightclubs etc opening up was always going to lead to a big surge in cases, the SG knew this, not sure they are overly concerned. 

Furlough ended in a couple of weeks means they;ll have nowhere near the same powers to lockdown here as they had before. 

The other side of that argument is that you only need to look at OZ/NZ to see what could have been possible. If every country in the world had done the same as them the virus might (just might) have been eliminated by now? In summer last year that was still a possibility. It probably isn't possible now but at that time it still was. That was also six months prior to any vaccine being approved. At that time there was no guarantee that we would ever get a vaccine, never mind when.

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4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

The other side of that argument is that you only need to look at OZ/NZ to see what could have been possible. If every country in the world had done the same as them the virus might (just might) have been eliminated by now? In summer last year that was still a possibility. It probably isn't possible now but at that time it still was. That was also six months prior to any vaccine being approved. At that time there was no guarantee that we would ever get a vaccine, never mind when.

Taiwan had an outbreak starting in May they got down to zero cases reported this week.

Look at New Zeland last couple of weeks since first case detected

Image

 

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8 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think our governments have probably reached a consensus of what they consider an acceptable risk to be. At the current rate that's about 30-40,000 deaths a year. That figure might go up a wee bit before it starts to come down again? Time will tell. That's a figure we may just have to live with. Those of us who don't die that is.

How many folk die of the flu each year? We have learned to live with that. I hated the flu analogy at the beginning but now which the vaccine it's a similar issue. We have never eradicated the common flu, it still kills thousands each year and this will sadly do likewise. 

11 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Wait a few weeks. Yes they won't be proportionately as high but.....

Hopefully not but it's a balancing exercise. Continued lockdowns and restrictions aren't the answer either (no matter how much some folk weirdly seem to want them)

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3 minutes ago, Lamia said:

What is wrong with adapting. That is how species survive is it not. "Living with the virus" doesn't need to mean going back too the way it was before.

 

Folk are going to do what they want to do, then they or someone they love get the virus something bad happens and they change their tune. Media all round the globe is filled with regretful people that didn't manage risk properly. Anti-vaxxers suffocating to death over 2 weeks begging their families to "take it seriousy" and get their children vaccinated.

You're not going to change minds. I'm resigned to just taking personal mitigation against infection and just not bothering what others do. The pandemics is going to be stretched out even further due to folk adapting behaviours congruent with "living with the virus" but you're not going to convince anyone of that.

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1 hour ago, Lamia said:

What is wrong with adapting. That is how species survive is it not. "Living with the virus" doesn't need to mean going back too the way it was before.

 

Folk can adapt however they feel best. 

Some folk can't adapt as others wish, as they'd have no job etc. 

Folk will choose to wear masks for the foreseeable now etc. What we can't do is lock huge parts of the country down for weeks on end due to it.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

Taiwan had an outbreak starting in May they got down to zero cases reported this week.

Look at New Zeland last couple of weeks since first case detected

Image

 

Shows what can be done if the political will is there to do it. 

I just hope that the way most governments have handled this pandemic doesn't become the template of how to handle the next one. But I have a funny feeling we will just make the same mistakes again. At least the technology will have moved on by then (it already has) and we may be in a better position to deal with it?

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1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

How many folk die of the flu each year? We have learned to live with that. I hated the flu analogy at the beginning but now which the vaccine it's a similar issue. We have never eradicated the common flu, it still kills thousands each year and this will sadly do likewise. 

Hopefully not but it's a balancing exercise. Continued lockdowns and restrictions aren't the answer either (no matter how much some folk weirdly seem to want them)

I don't think it's all that helpful to compare COVID with flu as they are very different illnesses which just happen to have a few similarities. But since you asked, 35,000 flu deaths would be a very, very bad flu year. On average over a few decades it's probably about 10-12,000. But as with anything else, it's hard to put a definite number on it because as soon as you start to look at the numbers in detail, you start to ask questions about how flu deaths are counted and how it varies in different countries. We have had a few discussions on here about how we count COVID numbers. The same thing applies to how we count any disease related deaths. How we count alcohol related deaths was a hot topic for a while.

 

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2 hours ago, phart said:

Folk are going to do what they want to do, then they or someone they love get the virus something bad happens and they change their tune. Media all round the globe is filled with regretful people that didn't manage risk properly. Anti-vaxxers suffocating to death over 2 weeks begging their families to "take it seriousy" and get their children vaccinated.

You're not going to change minds. I'm resigned to just taking personal mitigation against infection and just not bothering what others do. The pandemics is going to be stretched out even further due to folk adapting behaviours congruent with "living with the virus" but you're not going to convince anyone of that.

That is all very well and good but you are basically at the mercy of others. People can only do so much to protect themselves and some people have less control than others what others do has a massive impact on the risk to others. This pandemic has just demonstrated how inherently thoughtless, self entitled, ignorant and selfish the human race is

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5 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I don't think it's all that helpful to compare COVID with flu as they are very different illnesses which just happen to have a few similarities. But since you asked, 35,000 flu deaths would be a very, very bad flu year. On average over a few decades it's probably about 10-12,000. But as with anything else, it's hard to put a definite number on it because as soon as you start to look at the numbers in detail, you start to ask questions about how flu deaths are counted and how it varies in different countries. We have had a few discussions on here about how we count COVID numbers. The same thing applies to how we count any disease related deaths. How we count alcohol related deaths was a hot topic for a while.

 

We'll see how many folk die of covid next year with full populatio vaccinated. How many folk have died of covid in the past 4 months since the over 50s have been fully vaccinated?

It's a new illness, ofcourse its more contagious when theres no community immunity like the flu has over years and years.

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5 hours ago, Lamia said:

That is all very well and good but you are basically at the mercy of others. People can only do so much to protect themselves and some people have less control than others what others do has a massive impact on the risk to others. This pandemic has just demonstrated how inherently thoughtless, self entitled, ignorant and selfish the human race is

Well maybe those who dont want to be at risk can "adapr" and avoid contact with people and crowded places.

Its that easy after all to "adapt"

While we are on the subject of "adapting" how do pub owners, nightclub owners, restaurant owners, travel industry, soft play owners, theatre owners etc "adapt" at the drop of a hat to make their business viable with the restrictions we had earlier this year and not put millions on the dole? 

You're quick to tell folk to "adapt" but have had seen little evidence of how is done? 

 

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3 hours ago, SpecialisedOutsourcing said:

The Israeli data is a red herring - the Hasidics are approx 12.6% of Israel's population and bet you hardly any of them got vaccinated. They also live in family units worthy of the old woman who lived in a shoe.

Sir! Yes sir!

Rest easy brother 👌

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13 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

We'll see how many folk die of covid next year with full populatio vaccinated. How many folk have died of covid in the past 4 months since the over 50s have been fully vaccinated?

It's a new illness, ofcourse its more contagious when theres no community immunity like the flu has over years and years.

There's been about 5000 deaths in the UK since May. There was 127k in the Feb 2020 to May 2021 before that.

Just answering the questions.

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24 minutes ago, phart said:

There's been about 5000 deaths in the UK since May. There was 127k in the Feb 2020 to May 2021 before that.

Just answering the questions.

Thanks.

Vaccine doing its job then by and large. Be  few in that that 5000 unvaccinated, either anti vax or not got to them yet.

I'm 37 and only got my 2nd jag 2 weeks ago, so I'd assume very few of those under 30 have  been double vaccinated.  Will also be a lot in that age group who wont bother for whatever reason.

After watching Sturgeon yesteday, I think the unofficial policy is sort of herd immunity before the winter months and get the older generation boosters asap, with as little return to restrictions as possible. 

Shit will hit the fan next month when furlough ends as some folk have never come off it.

 

 

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I think the increase in our numbers was pretty predictable with the easing of restrictions.

But the English figures continue to baffle me. Although their schools have yet to return, they no longer have any restrictions at all south of the border. There is no requirement for masks indoors in England, unlike up here. 

Although the English cases are rising, the rate of increase is much slower than ours.Given the complete absence of mitigations and restrictions there, why are the performing relatively better than us?

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2 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Thanks.

Vaccine doing its job then by and large. Be  few in that that 5000 unvaccinated, either anti vax or not got to them yet.

I'm 37 and only got my 2nd jag 2 weeks ago, so I'd assume very few of those under 30 have  been double vaccinated.  Will also be a lot in that age group who wont bother for whatever reason.

After watching Sturgeon yesteday, I think the unofficial policy is sort of herd immunity before the winter months and get the older generation boosters asap, with as little return to restrictions as possible. 

Shit will hit the fan next month when furlough ends as some folk have never come off it.

 

 

Vaccines are doing a great job. I'm not sure there are published numbers for the vaccination status of the 5k, having the vaccine seems to make catching it significantly less harmful though.

80% of folk over 16 have had a 2nd dose. 89.8% have had a first dose and about 8% of eligible people haven't had any dose according to that travelling tabby website.

We're not going to get herd immunity it will go into an endemic stage it seems. Transmission and multiple infections occur with delta. The vaccines greatly reduce the severity of catching it though. They do a much better job than the flu vaccine does each year.

A major NPI is supporting people who can't work due to isolating or other factors if the government isn't going to do that then folk get pressured into making really difficult choices.

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