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Scottish player transfers


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1 hour ago, ProudScot said:

There’s loads of examples of expensive flops though to offset those sales;

Ajeti, Jullien, Barkas, Bolingoli - those are just very recent examples… add in Various loans with big transfer fees & not to mention there ridiculous wage bill

I was referring specifically to buying youngsters. Teens and early 20s. I.e bring in when they cost peanuts, develop them, and sell at a large profit. Those guys you mentioned were bought to go straight into the first team and unlikely purchased with the intention of making a big profit. Those are the fruits of the labour. The result of the other business model I was talking about.

If you look at all transfers then, yes, they probably just about break even. They should really stop wasting their money on expensive players in their mid-twenties. If Celtic can afford them, then there is a decent chance they aren't good enough.

 

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3 hours ago, killiefaetheferry said:

Yup. They had a few who worked out really well - Van Dijk, Wanyama etc. They then went all in for this model but tipped the balance too far and signed too many 'potential' players from abroad. 


I think all you need to know about Celtic in the transfer market is they tried to nickel and dime hibs for John Mcginn.  Didn’t want to stump up£3m or whatever it was… worth ten times that now.  

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13 hours ago, Malcolm said:


I think all you need to know about Celtic in the transfer market is they tried to nickel and dime hibs for John Mcginn.  Didn’t want to stump up£3m or whatever it was… worth ten times that now.  

Probably only be worth £6m if he had strolled around the SPL for 3 or 4 years 

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4 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Probably only be worth £6m if he had strolled around the SPL for 3 or 4 years 

that would suggest the league informs the value rather than the player's ability. If that is the case why did Celtic get £25m for Tierney after he strolled around the Scottish Premiership for 3-4 years? 

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1 hour ago, Return of Yermaw said:

that would suggest the league informs the value rather than the player's ability. If that is the case why did Celtic get £25m for Tierney after he strolled around the Scottish Premiership for 3-4 years? 

Not been been many players to leave the SPL for £25m,has there?

Tierney left at 22 after strolling around for four years. Mcginn would have been joining  Celtic at the same age

£6m is, like it or not, probably closer to the mark than the £30m the original poster suggested if he had stayed in Scotland for three years.  Thankfully he didn't and IMO he is a far better player for it.

Sorry but the level you are playing at  is a pretty good indication of a players value.

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4 hours ago, Return of Yermaw said:

that would suggest the league informs the value rather than the player's ability. If that is the case why did Celtic get £25m for Tierney after he strolled around the Scottish Premiership for 3-4 years? 

It does, the league and the selling team. It makes sense aswell. Tierney was extremely highly rated however Arsenal were still taking a chance on him as he hadnt performed at the level Arsenal play at. Someone like Wan Bassaka went for much more because he had been performing at the level Man Utd were playing at. 

The same way that if Tierney was to leave Arsenal now you would be talking at 50 million plus. He hasnt become twice the player that he was at Celtic.

Likewise if you are buying from a poorer club there is no need to pay big money. Take Josh Doig for example. If a 4 million bid comes in, can Hibs afford to refuse it? What would 4 million do for them compaired to say Crystal Palace. Also, if they refuse it would be reasonable for Doig to say, well if you think im worth more than 4 million then pay me accordingly. All of a sudden he wants his wages to go from say 1k per week to 10k min.

 

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Two guys who could have played for Scotland (Coates' dad is Scottish, but unsurprisingly he opted for Uruguay).

Edit: quote fail. That was in relation to the Portuguese team of the season.

Edited by Scots_Wha_Hae
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On 7/22/2021 at 8:37 PM, ceudmilefailte said:

Not been been many players to leave the SPL for £25m,has there?

Tierney left at 22 after strolling around for four years. Mcginn would have been joining  Celtic at the same age

£6m is, like it or not, probably closer to the mark than the £30m the original poster suggested if he had stayed in Scotland for three years.  Thankfully he didn't and IMO he is a far better player for it.

Sorry but the level you are playing at  is a pretty good indication of a players value.


don’t disagree that the league determines the value, however Celtic would have had the playing ability of an epl £30m player in their team but might have been able to sell on for a third of that. If they had Mcginn, tierney and Craig Gordon in the team last season 10iar would have been far more likely… they fucked up.

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10 hours ago, Malcolm said:


don’t disagree that the league determines the value, however Celtic would have had the playing ability of an epl £30m player in their team but might have been able to sell on for a third of that. If they had Mcginn, tierney and Craig Gordon in the team last season 10iar would have been far more likely… they fucked up.

Craig Gordon alone would have made it a much tighter race. Absolute fools to let him go. How do you go from Forster and Gordon to Barkas and Bain! Rangers showed how important a match winning(not-losing) keeper is. It speaks volumes that Rangers backup keeper was in the Scotland squad ahead of Celtic's number 1 - Bain.(for the 2nd half of last season, at least)

It's a great time to be a young Scot at Celtic right now. They are having a clearout and have a manager with a reputation for giving youth a chance. You'd think Celtic would have decent young strikers waiting in the wings? 

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1 hour ago, Tartan blood said:

Craig Gordon alone would have made it a much tighter race. Absolute fools to let him go. How do you go from Forster and Gordon to Barkas and Bain! Rangers showed how important a match winning(not-losing) keeper is. It speaks volumes that Rangers backup keeper was in the Scotland squad ahead of Celtic's number 1 - Bain.(for the 2nd half of last season, at least)

It's a great time to be a young Scot at Celtic right now. They are having a clearout and have a manager with a reputation for giving youth a chance. You'd think Celtic would have decent young strikers waiting in the wings? 

They were raving (the fans on social media) about a young guy (forget name) in the friendlies before they played Preston.

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1 hour ago, Third Lanark said:

They were raving (the fans on social media) about a young guy (forget name) in the friendlies before they played Preston.

Very informative 😁

You could be talking about Moffat? I think he's an attacking midfielder, but I could be wrong. I just remember him scoring at some point.

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On 7/22/2021 at 8:37 PM, ceudmilefailte said:

Not been been many players to leave the SPL for £25m,has there?

Tierney left at 22 after strolling around for four years. Mcginn would have been joining  Celtic at the same age

£6m is, like it or not, probably closer to the mark than the £30m the original poster suggested if he had stayed in Scotland for three years.  Thankfully he didn't and IMO he is a far better player for it.

Sorry but the level you are playing at  is a pretty good indication of a players value.

so even for young emerging talent with bags of potential. Nonsense. 

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On 7/22/2021 at 6:26 PM, Return of Yermaw said:

that would suggest the league informs the value rather than the player's ability. If that is the case why did Celtic get £25m for Tierney after he strolled around the Scottish Premiership for 3-4 years? 

A players value as defined by their transfer fee is whatever the buying club is will to pay and whatever the selling club is prepared to pay.  If you got two hypothetically identical players then they would likely be sold for different fees.

A player’s ability is obviously important but that’s actually got very little to do with the final transfer fee.   The players age will have a bearing, younger players coming into their best years will go at a premium because the buying club will see that they’ll get good use out of them and they will also likely have a resale value.  If you buy a guy at 28 on a four year deal, the likelihood is no matter how good he is, he’ll walk a play at the end for nothing.

Any cross border transfer represents a greater risk compared to a transfer between two clubs in the same league, another reason why transfers between Scotland and England appear undervalued.

Also the relative wealth of the selling club will play a big part as well.   No disrespect to Hibs , but we’re talking about John McGinn here, bluntly, it would take a much smaller cheque for a club to tempt him from Hibs than if say he’d been at Celtic purely because the amount of money Hibs could turn down would be a lot less than Celtic could and the buying club know that.  It’s also why Celtic tried to get him on the cheap themselves assuming that because he’s a Celtic fan, he’d automatically go to Parkhead.

Trying to equate a player’s value to their ability or worth is a mugs game and as evidence of that I give you £17:million pound Oli McBurnie. 

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2 hours ago, aaid said:

A players value as defined by their transfer fee is whatever the buying club is will to pay and whatever the selling club is prepared to pay.  If you got two hypothetically identical players then they would likely be sold for different fees.

A player’s ability is obviously important but that’s actually got very little to do with the final transfer fee.   The players age will have a bearing, younger players coming into their best years will go at a premium because the buying club will see that they’ll get good use out of them and they will also likely have a resale value.  If you buy a guy at 28 on a four year deal, the likelihood is no matter how good he is, he’ll walk a play at the end for nothing.

Any cross border transfer represents a greater risk compared to a transfer between two clubs in the same league, another reason why transfers between Scotland and England appear undervalued.

Also the relative wealth of the selling club will play a big part as well.   No disrespect to Hibs , but we’re talking about John McGinn here, bluntly, it would take a much smaller cheque for a club to tempt him from Hibs than if say he’d been at Celtic purely because the amount of money Hibs could turn down would be a lot less than Celtic could and the buying club know that.  It’s also why Celtic tried to get him on the cheap themselves assuming that because he’s a Celtic fan, he’d automatically go to Parkhead.

Trying to equate a player’s value to their ability or worth is a mugs game and as evidence of that I give you £17:million pound Oli McBurnie. 

Absolutely. It seems to be a source of confusion for many. A transfer fee is generally made up of two parts; 1) the cost of buying out the existing contract and 2) the premium paid on top for breaking the contract.

So, a player coming from Scotland will have a lower fee firstly because generally his existing agreement will be worth considerably less than an equivalent player based in England (i.e. 3 years at £20k per week would equate a fee just over £3m, 3 years at £50k per week would be a fee just under £8m - that doesn't mean the higher paid player is better, just his contract value is higher). On top of that, assuming the selling club does not need to sell, will be the premium. If you have a Scottish club with a player at £3m, and you add a premium to that (let's say 50%), the fee is £4.5m. The equivalent English player at £8m will sell for £12m. All of a sudden, two players with the same notional 'value' to a team are purchased at vastly different prices.

Of course it is even more complex, because the premium is not only a measure of relative wealth as you point out, but also a measure of risk. For instance the risk of an EPL team buying an established EPL player and bringing them into their team is considerably less than bringing in a 'foreign' player from the SPFL. No issues with the style of football, the step-up in quality, the re-sale value, the potential for home-sickness or whatever, so the premium an SPFL club can add on top is probably less than the premium an EPL club can add.

Players based in the EPL will always attract much higher fees and measuring the success of a transfer against that metric will never work.

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3 minutes ago, csinclair said:

Lewis Morgan was getting called up still when he was on loan there

If he moves to Sunderland, Odonnell will still get called up because we have a lack of options.

14 hours ago, ProudScot said:

In England that would be his level.

Patterson will start the next internationals. 

Will Patterson play for Rangers this season or is gerrard going with Tavernier?

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19 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

If he moves to Sunderland, Odonnell will still get called up because we have a lack of options.

Will Patterson play for Rangers this season or is gerrard going with Tavernier?

Going by pre season it’s going to be both of them & he’s said Patterson is too good to not play, so I think we are okay on that front. 
 

Rangers will play 55 games this season so even 25-35 games will be a decent return for Patterson and he could play more than that. 

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2 minutes ago, ProudScot said:

Going by pre season it’s going to be both of them & he’s said Patterson is too good to not play, so I think we are okay on that front. 
 

Rangers will play 55 games this season so even 25-35 games will be a decent return for Patterson and he could play more than that. 

Time will tell, managers talk mince to keep players happy all the time and pre-season is never a good way to judge whether a player will play or not. 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Time will tell, managers talk mince to keep players happy all the time and pre-season is never a good way to judge whether a player will play or not. 

 

 

I'd be astonished if Patterson doesn't feature regularly for them this season.

Which in no way invalidates the above point.  Before I chucked the coaching lark I'd be telling 25 different players in pre-season that the coaching staff had them earmarked for regular 1st team football! 🤣

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