COLT NY Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 If you were offered right now second place in the group, but a defeat in the playoffs... Would you take it? If so, how about second place, but not enough points to qualify for the play offs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bossman4 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Playoff everytime, even just for the excitment of it. Depends how and who we lost to though. A dutch style hammering would not be good but a glorious defeat to an Italy or a Portugal wouldn't be shameful. Was looking today and Northern Ireland have a good chance of being a seeded team for it baring a couple of dodgy results (a draw or defeat away to a god awful Norway team). They would also maybe need Turkey to pip Iceland and Wales not to make a late surge as well, all highly possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 But not highly possible we will get to the play offs. Its slovakia's all the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Jim Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Slovakia's Georgia may yet come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Not going to think about it until I see how the group looks by 10pm on Monday night. No, though. I wouldn't take a playoff loss/worst runner up. It would just be more woe is me. Roll that dice and see how we are looking by the start of next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JECK Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Well no, of course not. Your offering is yet another non qualification. That's mental surely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norsefox Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Grim Jim said: Slovakia's Georgia may yet come. Funny how we seem to be the only ones capable of such terrible results. The next two games could easily be a 12-pt swing for or against us. There is no doubt in my mind that Slovakia would get 100% if this weekend's fixtures were reversed. Anything less than 6 points for us is an embarrassment Edited August 30, 2017 by norsefox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Slovakia will probably beat england Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Russell's Lovechild Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 You're basically asking which is better, a kick in the balls or punch in the face Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
er yir macaroon Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Kobayashi maru Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Definitely not. Qualification or nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Chris Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Can anyone explain to me this nations league stuff. I just thought it was a standard draw for euro 2020. How's it work with rankings. Are their pots for teams? Surely a strong finish is needed in the group for that alone and be in pot 3 at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow jock Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Tried this a few times - best I can predict is us finishing 3rd sadly ?? http://ultra.zone/2018-FIFA-World-Cup-qualification-UEFA#group=f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Jim Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Tartan Chris said: Can anyone explain to me this nations league stuff. I just thought it was a standard draw for euro 2020. How's it work with rankings. Are their pots for teams? Surely a strong finish is needed in the group for that alone and be in pot 3 at least. Explaining it would be difficult. Makes my head hurt. However, there will still be familiar euro qualifiers for 2020. 4 of the 24 places though, will come from the Nations Leagues. For that, we'll be in a 3/4 team group with teams close to us on UEFA ranking. Those rankings have not been updated since 2016 I think, but will be fixed before the 2018 WC play-offs. Dunno if there are pots, or if its 100% by ranking. NL group games are Sept, Oct, Nov 2018 before normal qualifiers start Mar 2019. Edited September 1, 2017 by Grim Jim Confirmed the final UEFA ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Jim Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 So reading more on this... Lets throw this competition completely and get 0/12 points remaining Is that too late to drop us to division D for the nations leagues? (i.e. among the worst 16 in Europe.) That could be our best chance of getting to Euro 2020: Win our division D pool and we then have semi+final play-offs vs the other 3 div.D winners. What can possibly go wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norsefox Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Grim Jim said: So reading more on this... Lets throw this competition completely and get 0/12 points remaining Is that too late to drop us to division D for the nations leagues? (i.e. among the worst 16 in Europe.) That could be our best chance of getting to Euro 2020: Win our division D pool and we then have semi+final play-offs vs the other 3 div.D winners. What can possibly go wrong? Not a bad shout! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, Tartan Chris said: Can anyone explain to me this nations league stuff. I just thought it was a standard draw for euro 2020. How's it work with rankings. Are their pots for teams? Surely a strong finish is needed in the group for that alone and be in pot 3 at least. Pots are not locked yet, but effectively based on the current UEFA co-efficent (not the world rankings) its looking like this at the moment, with us in Group C. Pot 1 – Slovenia, Romania, Denmark, Albania Pot 2 – Scotland Pot 3 – Serbia, Bulgaria, Norway, Cyprus Pot 4 – Lithuania, Finland, Belarus* *Azerbaijan and Estonia are hovering around this cut off point, so could change a bit. We are pretty locked in pot 2, so I think it will take some very impressive results between now and November to get us into pot 1. As for the format, we will either be in a 4 team or 3 team group, eg. Denmark Scotland Cyprus Finland Effectively we would play all the games over Sep, Oct and Nov 2018.... with the group winner qualifying for a play off place at 2020 Euros (which will be held in March 2020).... eg (if we won our group) we would paired with fellow group winners Romania, Serbia and Norway in a mini knock out tournament with the winner getting a place at Euro 2020, with (eg) the winner of a Scotland v Norway match getting a place at Euro 2020 (4 spots in total are up for grabs). On top of this, in 2019 we will have the regular format qualifying (ie the current system) .... this is where it gets more complex, as if you qualify through the traditional method of qualifying, then you are exempt from the Nations Cup method of qualifying in March 2020 and place goes to the next ranked team who have not qualified (or a tie breaker, this bit I am not 100% clued up on and struggling to get my head around a little bit) Edited September 1, 2017 by wanderer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romanticscot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 hours ago, glasgow jock said: Tried this a few times - best I can predict is us finishing 3rd sadly ?? http://ultra.zone/2018-FIFA-World-Cup-qualification-UEFA#group=f If Slovakia beat Slovenia, I have us needing 12 points, and to go into the last game needing to win. If Slovenia win then we can do it with 10 points, and we can draw either of the last two games. The is assuming Lithuania don't do us any favors and England beat the both of them. If Lithuania do in fact either draw or beat Slovenia or Slovakia then we have much more breathing room. In 10 hours, things will be clear on the last 3 games. Of course, if we get 12 points then we take care of ourselves. We are on a two match unbeaten run, come Monday night I hope that to be 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Grim Jim said: So reading more on this... Lets throw this competition completely and get 0/12 points remaining Is that too late to drop us to division D for the nations leagues? (i.e. among the worst 16 in Europe.) That could be our best chance of getting to Euro 2020: Win our division D pool and we then have semi+final play-offs vs the other 3 div.D winners. What can possibly go wrong? Its based on UEFA Co-efficient, which is not really the same as the FIFA World Rankings. We are pretty locked into our spot, so will be in division C. As said previously, at the moment it looks like this, Pot 1 – Slovenia, Romania, Denmark, Albania Pot 2 – Scotland Pot 3 – Serbia, Bulgaria, Norway, Cyprus Pot 4 – Lithuania, Finland, Belarus Compared to this a couple of months earlier, Pot 1 – Romania, Denmark, Greece, Slovenia Pot 2 – Scotland Pot 3 – Israel, Norway, Bulgaria, Cyprus Pot 4 – Lithuania, Estonia, Finland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norsefox Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, romanticscot said: If Slovakia beat Slovenia, I have us needing 12 points, and to go into the last game needing to win. If Slovenia win then we can do it with 10 points, and we can draw either of the last two games. The is assuming Lithuania don't do us any favors and England beat the both of them. If Lithuania do in fact either draw or beat Slovenia or Slovakia then we have much more breathing room. In 10 hours, things will be clear on the last 3 games. Of course, if we get 12 points then we take care of ourselves. We are on a two match unbeaten run, come Monday night I hope that to be 4. England have not lost a qualifier at home in 17 years. For us to not come second involves us dropping points and/or Slovakia beating England If either of the above happens then Slovakia deserve to make the playoffs. Simple For us to win all four games and make the play offs is very very unlikely. I'd put the odds at even more remote than us winning those four games in the first place Edited September 1, 2017 by norsefox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Jim Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, wanderer said: Its based on UEFA Co-efficient, which is not really the same as the FIFA World Rankings. We are pretty locked into our spot, so will be in division C. As said previously, at the moment it looks like this, Pot 1 – Slovenia, Romania, Denmark, Albania Pot 2 – Scotland Pot 3 – Serbia, Bulgaria, Norway, Cyprus Pot 4 – Lithuania, Finland, Belarus Compared to this a couple of months earlier, Pot 1 – Romania, Denmark, Greece, Slovenia Pot 2 – Scotland Pot 3 – Israel, Norway, Bulgaria, Cyprus Pot 4 – Lithuania, Estonia, Finland Dammit. My next thoughts/fantasy were to get 12/12 points and hope to sneak into Div.B. Since the March 2020 NL play-offs for the 4 Euro places are ONLY for teams that have NOT already qualified (20 places), we could possibly get a bye to the Euros even if we were last in our pool of 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Grim Jim said: Dammit. My next thoughts/fantasy were to get 12/12 points and hope to sneak into Div.B. Since the March 2020 NL play-offs for the 4 Euro places are ONLY for teams that have NOT already qualified (20 places), we could possibly get a bye to the Euros even if we were last in our pool of 3 When you start getting to the tail end of it, this is where I get lost on it...... When you look at the guide diagram to it, looks really straight forward and easy, its only when you try to put it down on paper does it struggle to get across. I think it is possible to get into Div B, but will take some crazy results (guy who does the World Rankings Blog gave his expectations, and I think we only had a 20% chance of Div B..... and this guy knows his stuff.... the Welsh FA apparently hired him a few years back to ask what he could do to sort their rankings in terms of friendly matches to play, and it paid off) Edited September 1, 2017 by wanderer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoonTheSlope Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 30/08/2017 at 4:27 PM, COLT NY said: If you were offered right now second place in the group, but a defeat in the playoffs... Would you take it? If so, how about second place, but not enough points to qualify for the play offs? Aids or ebola Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 8/30/2017 at 4:27 PM, COLT NY said: If you were offered right now second place in the group, but a defeat in the playoffs... Would you take it? If so, how about second place, but not enough points to qualify for the play offs? Daft post. What rational person would take an elimination scenario when Scotland can still potentially qualify at this current time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COLT NY Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, irish said: Daft post. What rational person would take an elimination scenario when Scotland can still potentially qualify at this current time? Thanks pal! For what it's worth I wouldn't take either option as I think we have every chance of winning each of the next 4 games. The reason I asked the question is because there's so many Scotland fans talking down our chances, I was interested to see how deep their pessimism ran. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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