ParisInAKilt Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 7 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said: Campaigning has shown the Tories up for what they are - all talk and no action. All I've heard from them is smears trying to put people off voting for Labour in the UK or SNP in Scotland. May has hidden from public debates and a finger has to be pointewd at her for cutting the police force by 18,000 in the present climate and then of course there are the other glaring issues with them. I see no way on earth that they win seats in Scotland, do well in Westminster in government with May at the helm and coax the Tories to even more seats in Scotland at the next election. And despite the above people still vote for them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 2 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said: And despite the above people still vote for them In Scotland their vote will come from yoons. From the rest of the UK it will come from people who did vote UKIP who see the EU as demonic and jizz off at May's angst to the EU. Also get votes from people who simply see no better alternative (very sad indictment that) and of course from the die-hard Tories who only ever vote Tory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 13 hours ago, Mox said: A real conundrum for me tomorrow. I have been a Labour supporter my whole voting life pre 2014 and Corbyn fills me with genuine hope and I really want to vote for Labour, but I cannot bring myself to vote for these Scottish Labour cretins who represent everything that is wrong with modern politics. I really do hope Labour upset the odds but I just cannot bring myself to vote for this Scottish version. Ach that's an easy one. Just vote SNP. You know t makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 10 hours ago, thplinth said: Enough blah blah... What are your predictions? Tory / Labour Majority, Tory / Labour Minority, Hung etc... No guts no glory. I'm going for somewhere between the Tories being <15 short of a majority and a getting a majority of <15. In Scotland i think the SNP will lose 5 or 6 MPs. What's your prediction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 10 hours ago, thplinth said: Enough blah blah... What are your predictions? Tory / Labour Majority, Tory / Labour Minority, Hung etc... No guts no glory. I agree, I also think it will be one of the above. In Scotland, I'm going for 46 SNP, 3 Labour, 4 Lib Dim and 6 RapeClauseRuth party. In the UK Tories to have an overall majority of 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 SNP 45 toryscum 7 Labour 4 Fibdem 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I wonder where the Herald got their SNP 55 seats from - just hours before the polls opened It could be a tactic to spur their Unionist readership into voting - but they would look a bit silly if it turns out well wide of the mark Ive said for months the SNP would hold onto most so i have to stick with it regardless of doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: I wonder where the Herald got their SNP 55 seats from - just hours before the polls opened It could be a tactic to spur their Unionist readership into voting - but they would look a bit silly if it turns out well wide of the mark I think you're being overly cynical. Most polls last night/this morning are showing an upturn in support for the Tories down south. Which, if anything, would do the opposite of getting folk to vote for the Tories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Parklife said: I'm going for somewhere between the Tories being <15 short of a majority and a getting a majority of <15. In Scotland i think the SNP will lose 5 or 6 MPs. What's your prediction? I really don't know. First past the post is a tricky one. You can get quite a lot of votes and get no seats as you have not reached enough to actually win a seat anywhere and then when you do it can quite quickly become an avalanche as we saw last time. Even though it was well predicted last time I did not believe it would happen until I saw it, 56 seats is still hard to believe. I do not know which polls to trust. Pure guess work but I'll go with 45 seats for the SNP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 (edited) Fhuck me... The UK-wide survey by BMG poll for The Herald gives the Tories a 13-point lead over Labour, which would put the Prime Minister on course for a 110-seat Commons majority. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15334427.Britain_at_crossroads_as_eve_of_poll_survey_suggests_May_heading_for_landslide_victory/ Maybe the SNP will do better than I think. Edited June 8, 2017 by thplinth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 38 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: I wonder where the Herald got their SNP 55 seats from - just hours before the polls opened It could be a tactic to spur their Unionist readership into voting - but they would look a bit silly if it turns out well wide of the mark Ive said for months the SNP would hold onto most so i have to stick with it regardless of doubt I noticed the Record went with 43 seats for the SNP. It's gonna piss down all day, turnout might be down a bit?.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Govanhill Jacobite Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Head says 45 seats for the SNP, Heart says 50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 (edited) Quote The final polls in Scotland suggest a fairly settled picture - although there have only been seven of them during the whole campaign so there's not much to go on. The SNP are clearly out in front on 40% or a little higher. The Conservatives and Labour are in a battle for second place at around 25%, perhaps with the Conservatives' ahead by a nose. That would represent a significant shift from the actual 2015 result of SNP 50%, LAB 43%, CON 15%. So SNP support is down by 10% but Labours vote is also down meaning the gap to their nearest rival has gone up from 7% to 15%... This is really hard to predict but maybe yes the SNP will hold 55 seats. Yet again I will have to see it to believe it. Edited June 8, 2017 by thplinth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 i've had this feeling the Tories are still going to romp it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I can't see beyond a Tory win but with a reduced majority which would be a disaster for the Tories. May called this election when she did because she saw an opportunity for a landslide victory giving her free rein over all issues. If that doesn't happen - considering where things stood a month or so ago then it is a disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheres the pies Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 On newsnight last night Ian dale predicteing Tory majority of 122 seats hope the hunts wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 (edited) First vote of the day done (proxy for a pal). Not feeling good in south Aberdeen. Prediction Tory majority under 50 SNP 47 Tory 6 Libdem 4 Labour 2 Edited June 8, 2017 by flumax Oops tory not Torry, that's where just voted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 I wonder if the Labour vote in Scotland has went up significantly Clearly people want to experience that one more time before deciding it's pointless However it would split the Unionist vote big time Would SNP voters go back to Labour ? So many questions and i'm getting chest palpitations worrying about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said: I wonder where the Herald got their SNP 55 seats from - just hours before the polls opened It could be a tactic to spur their Unionist readership into voting - but they would look a bit silly if it turns out well wide of the mark Ive said for months the SNP would hold onto most so i have to stick with it regardless of doubt It looks like it was a poll across the UK so Scotland sample small. Not very reliable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbcmfc Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said: I wonder if the Labour vote in Scotland has went up significantly Clearly people want to experience that one more time before deciding it's pointless However it would split the Unionist vote big time Would SNP voters go back to Labour ? So many questions and i'm getting chest palpitations worrying about it I think you're right about the unionist vote being split. Working class unionists who previously couldn't have brought themselves to vote Tory believe they are the only alternative to the SNP, and the SNP are the devil to unionists. The problem for the SNP vote in places like Lanarkshire would be folk who aren't unionist drifting back to labour from SNP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
min Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 43 minutes ago, thplinth said: So SNP support is down by 10% but Labours vote is also down meaning the gap to their nearest rival has gone up from 7% to 15%... This is really hard to predict but maybe yes the SNP will hold 55 seats. Yet again I will have to see it to believe it. The SNP had a 26% gap over their nearest rivals in 2015 when 50% voted SNP versus 24% for Labour. If the polls are to be believed, the Labour vote in Scotland has held firm and there's been a 10% swing from SNP to Tory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbcmfc Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 It does seem to be split very much on a unionist/non unionist front in Scotland. Ive made the suggestion to some more open minded folk that the SNP are the best party to represent Scottish interests at Westminster, regardless of your thoughts on independence. Its almost portrayed that a vote for SNP is a vote for independence, which it isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Govanhill Jacobite said: Head says 45 seats for the SNP, Heart says 50 Head 48 - heart 60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Bet365 has SNP over/under split at 46.5 seats which is probably pretty accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
min Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbcmfc said: It does seem to be split very much on a unionist/non unionist front in Scotland. Ive made the suggestion to some more open minded folk that the SNP are the best party to represent Scottish interests at Westminster, regardless of your thoughts on independence. Its almost portrayed that a vote for SNP is a vote for independence, which it isn't. That's the worrying thing for me. If 60% of the Scottish electorate vote for unionist parties, what message does that give compared to 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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