ParisInAKilt Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 (edited) Indy referendum #2 or not? Do you think including it in the 2016 would mean most no voters wouldn't vote SNP? Part of me thinks it should be left out, it's too soon and another defeat would be devastating but then a Tory majority now and labour in a bad way might mean this is a great chance in say 2019 to try again assuming a majority is returned again. Edited May 11, 2015 by ParisInAKilt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIGHTOWER 1314 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Should be put on the back burner for a later day and instead the party should concentrate on winning the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ANDYP Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Agree too soon. Couldn't handle another no so soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I think that bit will be very carefully worded. Not ruling it in or out., but leaving the option available if they choose to use it. But it will be 9 or 10 months before it's published. 10 months is a long time in politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Unless anything changes in the next year, I suspect it won't be an outright commitment but some set of words that would allow them to call a referendum should circumstances dictate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Agree too soon. Couldn't handle another no so soon I'm ready to go whenever it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_burger Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Should be put on the back burner for a later day and instead the party should concentrate on winning the election. Agree with this. The snp should put everything into having as good a term as possible without Indy in the manifesto. Represent the people properly at both parliaments, work hard. Then, once everybody has cooled off a bit, stick it in for the next one. I think it would be a big mistake to take it on so soon when people are probably a bit jaded after a fairly recent 3 year campaign. Also, in the intervening time I am confident that the unionist parties, and particularly the Tories, will do their damnedest to alienate us (and anybody of the left leaning persuasion). They can't help themselves. Hopefully most of the groundwork will be done. And focus should be given to developing the economic argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 There's little more I'd like than to wake up tomorrow and for Scotland to be an independent country, but I wouldn't consider another independence referendum until most polls are showing a comfortable lead for Yes. I wouldn't rule it out in the manifesto completely, however. That way there is a failsafe if the Tories try and do something mental. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usainboltyarocket Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 The next one has to be won. If not that's it for anyone alive today. Voting yes was an extremely proud day for me and many but listening to and watching the unionists/nazis celebrating the day after made me sick. I have never and will never vote for a unionist party. However not everyone thinks independence/unionism when voting. Actual policies are important to some especially the NHS. Let's see how this EU ref goes before we even consider another indyref. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 It's a difficult one. 5 years is a long time in politics and 10 years even more so if we were waiting for another term and expecting SNP to continue to ride the crest of a wave and maintain popularity over that period. Things can and will go wrong and something drastic can change things in an instant. There are many variables. If Labour miraculously got themselves together and back into Westminster in 2020 after 5 years of more Tory cuts then it may make the task that bit more difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParisInAKilt Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 It is a difficult one. The next one can't be lost and 5 years without anything major happening deep down is probably too soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 It should only be a conditional pledge - for example if we're dragged out the EU against our will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 It should only be a conditional pledge - for example if we're dragged out the EU against our will. I think that's what'll happen. Can't see another referendum any time soon, despite the Unionist parties' pre-election claims. I doubt a huge number of the electorate would be keen on another two years of continual debate in the run up to it. Heard some politicos discussing the prospect of another referendum last week. The consensus was that you probably only get two shots at it, giving the example of Quebec where the appetite for another seems to have gone after the second failure (took them 15 years to get another vote too). The new dimension to our debate is clearly the election result however. I don't know too much about Canadian politics but I doubt the Quebecois sent a nationalist group comprising 95% of the province's elected members to the central parliament just a few months after losing a referendum... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockodile Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Make it clear not on agenda but def not ruled out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 (edited) If they make election a de facto referendum on independence I think they will lose seats. To be honest I think the SNP will find it hard to maintain the recent momentum in elections. Edited May 12, 2015 by EddardStark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 It should only be a conditional pledge - for example if we're dragged out the EU against our will. Agree with that. Otherwise far too early. I couldn't go through September again. Has to be right time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Keep it out. As a Johnny come lately to the SNP cause (voted labour first half of my enfranchised life - do not assume I valued the union, I just didn't care /think about it),what won me over to SNP was not their position on independence, it was their competence in opposition in Holyrood and I gambled leading to a minority government which delivered a better day to day and I've not looked back . I felt that getting that right allowed me to be exposed to this "thing " that was odd secondary importance to me/my family health, education, employment etc. Ramming another ref down no's throats won't change their opinion, good governance will draw people over. Look how in 2003 - 24%, 2007 - 32%, 2011 - 45%, now looking at a good 50%, convince another 1 in 20, 55% next year. Squeeze another couple of the population through whatever powers come from Smith (or whatever it becomes). Looking at 58-60%. Then possibly in UK 2020 or Scotland 2021 think about it... Coupled with the attrition of post war baby boomers, young voters who will experience very little other than service slashing UK tory government and Scottish politics dominated by snp... It could be a goer. 2011 too soon and too big a gamble for me. But I've only been waiting 10y, some of you may be a little more impatient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 (edited) It'll definitely be in the manifesto in some form. I suspect it'll be conditional based on either: - UK voting to leave the EU; or - Further devolution not going far enough (vague). Edited May 12, 2015 by Parklife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haggis_trap Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 (edited) Way back in the mid 1990s who would have thought that just 20 years later we would have a Scottish parliament with tax raising powers. Times are changing..... Who knows where we will be in another 20 years time. Independence is a journey / transition / nations state of mind. It will come when the time is right - and probably sooner than we think.We are on the path now - and there is no reason to step off it.However there is no need to rush or force through the next step and derail the process. Edited May 12, 2015 by Haggis_trap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnie x Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 To be honest I think the SNP will find it hard to maintain the recent momentum in elections. There is a bold prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 As others have said, the only explicit reference will be if we are being dragged from the EU. What I think is more important in the next Scottish Parliament is consolidating their position against Labour. That means doing whatever it takes to keep Labour votes - no explicit referendum commitment, a progressive agenda, commitment to further devolution, etc. The current session of Scottish Parliament has been a pretty mixed bag from the SNP perspective and they really need to up their game so they should prioritise that over a referendum. Proving that Scotland has the smarts for self-government is the best way to secure independence. That all said, they should not rule out a referendum. A lot can change in five years and ruling it out means no referendum until 2021 at the earliest. Im uncomfortable with that because 2020 is likely to see a reduction in SNP MPs at Westminster (it would be arrogant to assume the SNP could repeat this years feat) and Labour might actually have gained some credibility - in such circumstances, the SNP might have started losing momentum. A referendum is going to have to happen at "peak SNP". They can't rule it out that's for sure - if independence starts polling at 60+% consistently, say because people are finally sick of Tories cuts, or a Labour splinter group declare for independence, the SNP have to go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbers Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I had to laugh at my bosses Mum whom voted No and was moaning the tories are in charge and nothing she could do about it me and her son 'should have voted yes then!' Let the soft no voters really hate the tories as Labour continue to be weak the truth is we have not had a left wing UK Government since 1974! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Last time we called a referendum without clear blue water majority support. Because we believed that when offered the question for the first time in 300 years Scots would seize their chance. And maybe they would have had the referendum been remotely fair. But it wasn't and they didn't. So that means next time it has to be the other way round. The public must first demand it by a clear majority of them wanting to vote Yes. That must be measurable in the polls and significant. I would say 65% minimum. There is no way you can risk another No. Next time it has to be the other way around or not at all. You are going to need a big Yes majority going into it in order to survive the Onslaught II (which will be even worse than the Onslaught I). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Last time we called a referendum without clear blue water majority support. Because we believed that when offered the question for the first time in 300 years Scots would seize their chance. And maybe they would have had the referendum been remotely fair. But it wasn't and they didn't. So that means next time it has to be the other way round. The public must first demand it by a clear majority of them wanting to vote Yes. That must be measurable in the polls and significant. I would say 65% minimum. There is no way you can risk another No. Next time it has to be the other way around or not at all. You are going to need a big Yes majority going into it in order to survive the Onslaught II (which will be even worse than the Onslaught I). I totally agree. Support for the SNP has snowballed but the question is - to what extent can/will it continue to snowball towards achieving 65%+ pro-indy electorate. Will people be disgruntled enough by a Tory government and 5 more years of cuts? Will people see that those cuts are hampering the SNP? Will they see that the VOW is not enough? Will the EU ref edge us in any way significantly closer? (I fully expect us to stay in the EU but England will vote in higher % to leave than Scotland so there will be some political spin to be made out of that). I don't know if any combination of things will or will not take us to 65%. All we know is that it won't happen overnight. Unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Survation Sub-Sample (8-9 May): Yes - 52.6% No - 47.4% YouGov Sub-Sample (8-9 May): Yes - 54.7% No - 45.3% We'll need to see a full-scale Scotland poll to confirm this, but could this be the start of the shift towards clear support for independence? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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