General Election 2024

[Orraloon]

It might be better to start a new tread to avoid clogging up the "News" thread with election stuff that some folk might want to avoid.

My starting point is the boundary changes, which don't seem to be getting reported much by our media. Yet more shifting of power to the the south of England. Scotland loses another two seats whilst England gains another ten, most of them in the south east. IMO, this will help the Tories a bit, but not enough to win the election. 

From an independence point of view, I think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament with the SNPs 30ish seats being enough to cause some chaos at Westminster. All of our media is telling us that Labour will win a landslide, but I'm not so sure. They will win the election ( unless a major war saves the Tories), but even to get a majority, they need one of the biggest swings ever in UK elections. For me, the fact that we are almost talking as though this has already happened indicates two things. 

1. That Labour and Tories are so close to each other, in policies, that so many millions of folk might be prepared to swap their votes within the space of a few years.
2. The people of the UK are very easily manipulated.

[TDYER63]

I think Labour will get a majority unless something massive happens in the next 10 months . Pretty sure the Tories know this hence delaying the election for as long as possible. 6 months ago I saw the possibility of a Tory rebound but I think they are too far gone now. I think Labour will get a majority without Scottish seats so I really hope anyone who wants independence is not tempted to vote Labour to secure them a majority. 
The Westminster FPTP system leaves England with a constant 2 horse race. Most governments lose the election rather than the opposition winning it. The fact neither party are willing to change things shows they have no interest in democracy, they are both happy to sit in the wings till their time comes round again.

Stephen Flynn made a good speech the other day about the post office scandal and mentioned the other scandals like Waspi women, Grenfell etc at the end he quoted Keir Starmer as saying ‘the public have the right to be angry at Westminster ’.
Flynn then said ‘ the public ARE angry at Westminster , as they know this place never really changes’. 
With a Tory #2 party likely to be elected never has that been more obvious. 

[Hertsscot]

6 hours ago, Orraloon said:

From an independence point of view, I think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament with the SNPs 30ish seats being enough to cause some chaos at Westminster. All of our media is telling us that Labour will win a landslide, but I'm not so sure.

That's actually a massive incentive for independence supporters to turn out to vote. Bizarrely the SNP could end up having more clout than if they won all Scottish seats.

[Malcolm]

Trump is back!  God bless the USA.

[Ally Bongo]

12 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Trump is back!  God bless the USA.

I have never been more sure that if there really is a shady military industrial cabal in America then Trump will be taken out if there is even the slightest chance of him winning

How it will be done is the only question

[daviebee]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:49 AM, Orraloon said:

From an independence point of view, I think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament with the SNPs 30ish seats being enough to cause some chaos at Westminster. All of our media is telling us that Labour will win a landslide, but I'm not so sure. They will win the election ( unless a major war saves the Tories), but even to get a majority, they need one of the biggest swings ever in UK elections. For me, the fact that we are almost talking as though this has already happened indicates two things. 

Aye, the "good wee parliamentarians" will be just great at doing that.  Might even do a walkout only to go back in again later when they realise filet mignon is on the restaurant menu that night.

[Orraloon]

29 minutes ago, daviebee said:

Aye, the "good wee parliamentarians" will be just great at doing that.  Might even do a walkout only to go back in again later when they realise filet mignon is on the restaurant menu that night.

It would depend on whether they had any leverage or not. So far, even with 56 MPs, they have never had any real opportunity to do anything. We just might get lucky this time round and the 30ish MPs could possibly hold the balance? That's obviously a very big "could". But unfortunately this is the reality of the situation we are in. I can't see independence moving forward, unless we get lucky at some point, and get some real influence at Westminster. Of course, we need the voters in England to do that for us. 

[Alibi]

I note there was a vote in WM about giving Scotland the right to have referenda.  A majority of Scottish MPs supported it but it was beaten by English MPs voting against.  Maybe they should bring forwards an identical motion but seeking to give England the power to have a referendum and see where that leads.  The whole thing demonstrates that Scotland does not have democracy - we are prisoners in an abusive, coercive union.  Our MPs should be saying that loud and clear at every opportunity instead of being good wee parliamentarians.  Would add impact if they also said "fuck" a lot and generally made themselves too disruptive to allow WM business to function.  Also doing whatever they're not allowed to do (like clapping, although seems English MPs get away with that). Fuck the UK, fuck the union, fuck WM.

[Hertsscot]

57 minutes ago, Alibi said:

I note there was a vote in WM about giving Scotland the right to have referenda.  A majority of Scottish MPs supported it but it was beaten by English MPs voting against.  Maybe they should bring forwards an identical motion but seeking to give England the power to have a referendum and see where that leads.  The whole thing demonstrates that Scotland does not have democracy - we are prisoners in an abusive, coercive union.  Our MPs should be saying that loud and clear at every opportunity instead of being good wee parliamentarians.  Would add impact if they also said "fuck" a lot and generally made themselves too disruptive to allow WM business to function.  Also doing whatever they're not allowed to do (like clapping, although seems English MPs get away with that). Fuck the UK, fuck the union, fuck WM.

Agreed. At the end of the day not allowing voters in Scotland to have the choice of leaving the Union is fundamentally undemocratic and that denial of democracy should be highlighted at every single opportunity.

[kumnio]

Might be a bit hyperbolic, but I genuinely fear Labour winning the next election.

Keir Starmer is a dangerous grifter, I think he has the ability to make this fucked up pathetic husk of a country even worse. I wouldn't trust him to run a corner shop, let alone a country, I think his lack of morals are so bad, than even most Tories would struggle to stoop to his level. Him and his band of disciples will have a majority and carte blanche to enact whatever they want to, I doubt it will be anything that true Labour would have ever wanted.

Labour aren't Labour, this isn't like supporting a football team, where most people just blindly following unthinking, yet Labour fans blindly follow these charlatans. 

The UK continues to plunge to new depths of despair, its a fucking cesspit, its utterly embarrassing to be part of it.

[vanderark14]

14 hours ago, Alibi said:

I note there was a vote in WM about giving Scotland the right to have referenda.  A majority of Scottish MPs supported it but it was beaten by English MPs voting against.  Maybe they should bring forwards an identical motion but seeking to give England the power to have a referendum and see where that leads.  The whole thing demonstrates that Scotland does not have democracy - we are prisoners in an abusive, coercive union.  Our MPs should be saying that loud and clear at every opportunity instead of being good wee parliamentarians.  Would add impact if they also said "fuck" a lot and generally made themselves too disruptive to allow WM business to function.  Also doing whatever they're not allowed to do (like clapping, although seems English MPs get away with that). Fuck the UK, fuck the union, fuck WM.

Every country that freed themselves from the Brits did it when they stopped playing by brit rules. As you say being good parliamentarians gets them nowhere. 

I don't watch the commons debates that often but when I do, it's so easy to see the absolute contempt they have for scots. 

I remember one such time when Blackford called Johnson racist, he quoted something Johnson said which confirmed Johnson is racist. Blackford was reprimanded and jeered.

On a side not the biggest problem in Scotland right now is the yes side is not unified, until this is done, there can be no challenge to unionism

[hampden_loon2878]

As it currently stands, I am going 8 seats SNP, 12 torie, libs, god knows 6 maybe and the rest labour (Scotland) 

 

 

Edited January 18 by hampden_loon2878

[EddardStark]

Recent polling from YouGov for under 50's makes grim reading for the Tories. A demographic time bomb

Lab- 60%

Con - 10%

Green - 10%

LD - 9%

Reform - 5%

SNP - 3%

 

[Ally Bongo]

If the SNP truly believe in Scottish Independence then they have to know they cannot win it on their own

The Grangemouth decision is only a taste of things to come to ensure Scotland cannot economically survive on it's own therefore it is getting critical that something happens to fucking unite the movement

[Squirrelhumper]

3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

As it currently stands, I am going 8 seats SNP, 12 torie, libs, god knows 6 maybe and the rest labour (Scotland) 

 

 

No chance. 

[Redz]

21 hours ago, Alibi said:

I note there was a vote in WM about giving Scotland the right to have referenda.  A majority of Scottish MPs supported it but it was beaten by English MPs voting against.  Maybe they should bring forwards an identical motion but seeking to give England the power to have a referendum and see where that leads.  The whole thing demonstrates that Scotland does not have democracy - we are prisoners in an abusive, coercive union.  Our MPs should be saying that loud and clear at every opportunity instead of being good wee parliamentarians.  Would add impact if they also said "fuck" a lot and generally made themselves too disruptive to allow WM business to function.  Also doing whatever they're not allowed to do (like clapping, although seems English MPs get away with that). Fuck the UK, fuck the union, fuck WM.

On that basis, I'd vote for you

Fuck being nice......

[hampden_loon2878]

3 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

No chance. 

There is a chance, a big one at that,, maybe it won’t happen like that but that’s what my gut is telling me 

[Malcolm]

If the SNPs campaign is as good as the party political broadcast I have seen they have no chance. Amateurs 😂

[Alibi]

19 hours ago, Malcolm said:

If the SNPs campaign is as good as the party political broadcast I have seen they have no chance. Amateurs 😂

Watch the Labour one, or rather the Scottish labour one as they titled it.  Hilariously bad.

I saw a wee bit of the SNP one.  Pretty unimaginative and bland.  Harking on about baby boxes isn't going to get us any closer to independence.

[Ally Bongo]

Hanvey is calling for an urgent Independence convention to put country before parties

[Squirrelhumper]

22 hours ago, Malcolm said:

If the SNPs campaign is as good as the party political broadcast I have seen they have no chance. Amateurs 😂

It was beyond cringey.

[PapofGlencoe]

I don't like a few politicians in the SNP but the sneer from Scottish Labour who've never even ATTEMPTED to convince anybody of their policies; rather waiting for everyone else to inevitably become unpopular makes you sick of the political process.

The SNP have had their horrors but i'd rather not vote than cross a box for those charlatans.  Worse than the Tories for me, at least most Tories know what they are.  

There are umpteen things we have in Scotland because of the parliament and the SNP but because of some meaningless guff about trans folk they're a pariah for some.  I honestly believe the stuff I hate about the SNP is meaningless and the stuff I hate about Labour and the Tories is meaningful, so I'll be voting SNP.

[Ally Bongo]

👌

[Malcolm]

16 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

It was beyond cringey.

it was indeed.  It was so clichéd when they were trotting out Scottish terms like “Bairn” it looked like they had got the school debating team to make it.  I haven’t been this amused by a pp broadcast since the greens stuck up that queer performance poet to chunter.on 😂

[vanderark14]

The alternative to voting SNP is to stick with governments who are assest stripping scotland.

Inflation has risen again, NHS lists at all time high, debt has risen oh and for anyone who thinks the boats and illegal immigration is important, I don't,  the tories have done zip to solve it. 

The tories and Labour have stood by and not only watched but encouraged the slaughter of thousands if not 10s of thousands of people in Gaza. 

Recently they've basically told scotland they have no democratic right to determine its future

But yes let's stick with the status quo, westminster is doing a stellar job for Scotland.