Coronavirus

[hampden_loon2878]

8 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

I've no idea when it stops, if I was to guess, probably when covid patient numbers are down, I don't believe it will an endless cycle, if it is........we are fucked.

As I said, this is an inconvenience if we are locked down, we lose a few luxuries and visiting people for a short period. It's annoying but I can live with it.

You sure your stance has nothing to do with sturgeon?

 

No nothing to do with sturgeon, i do however think it do more harm than good to her to lock things down again, just how i am seeing it, i could be way off. New year up here is still celebrated so it would be a big hit to a lot of folk to be stuck in 

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

I don't really understand this attitude. I'm fully vaccinated but I understand it doesn't prevent me getting it but if us being locked down stops others getting it, so be it. It's an inconvenience but we will cope.

I'd like to know what the verified data is for hospitalised covid patients. Are they vaccinated? If not, we know exactly where the problem is.

Not sure if this is verified,  and its 2 weeks old,  but it suggests its a high percentage (90%)  of unvaccinated that are using up the critical equipment . 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/health/doctors-incredibly-frustrated-unvaccinated-covid-patients-delaying-nhs-operations-1336507/amp

[vanderark14]

2 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Not sure if this is verified,  and its 2 weeks old,  but it suggests its a high percentage (90%)  of unvaccinated that are using up the critical equipment . 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/health/doctors-incredibly-frustrated-unvaccinated-covid-patients-delaying-nhs-operations-1336507/amp

So we need more people to get vaccinated? 

It's probably a simplistic view but that's what it looks like to me.

 

[thplinth]

I am also a little wary of slapping ourselves on the back that the death rate this time around is less due to the vaccines. This is sort of what you'd expected to see for the reason that the virus kills the very vulnerable first... six months or a year later when it starts again those people are already gone, it cant kill them again, and so the death rate falls naturally as all the 'low hanging fruit' is now gone for the little fucker.

What also helps reduce the death rate is the experience gained treating it when you do catch it. That also will reduce the death rate naturally as mistakes were made and lessons learned in the first wave.

If the vaccines are reducing transmissibility it is marginal (and personally I doubt it is even marginal).

I am certainly not of the opinions the vaccines have been a success... it is way too early to say and early indicators are not good. Lot of wishful thinking going on it seems.

 

[Orraloon]

55 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

So we are going to just keep locking down every six months, sorry i am just no willing to do this anymore. Its not the booster i am against far from it

You asked this "Whys everyone getting booster vaccines if we get locked down anyway, utter madness"

I think the two things should be looked at separately as two different ways to reduce the effects of the virus. There is no doubt in my mind that the vaccines are working and they are working very well. Society had pretty much been opened up, and not far off, back to normal before omicron came on the scene. IMO the reason we were able to do that was largely due to the vaccines. 

Lockdown style restrictions are designed to try to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed with COVID cases. Do you not have any anecdotes from folk who work in the NHS and are watching people suffering and dying of COVID everyday?

[Morrisandmoo]

56 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Bracing myself for behind closed doors fitba again 😕

 

I've got the fear as well. 

[phart]

I'm favouring optimism today

 

 

[Morrisandmoo]

On 12/19/2021 at 9:28 PM, phart said:

There isn't enough info yet about severity.

South Africa has a totally different age profile which is one of the main indicators of severe outcome.

I haven't the foggiest idea what the best course is to chart through this. Lockdowns move the peak rather than eliminate the peak, it's also probably too late, we're already at testing capacity so reported cases are no longer accurate.

Talking about celebrity dentists is just rhetoric as well, the head of Denmarks covid team is stating the same thing about cases there.

Denmark's projections show the wave so fully inundating the country, that even a lessened strain will deliver an unprecedented blow.

Scientists caution that the knowledge of omicron remains imprecise. Denmark's virus modelers have many scenarios, not just one. But even in a middle-of-the-road scenario, Danish hospitals will soon face a daily flow of patients several times beyond what they've previously seen.

"This will overwhelm hospitals," Grove Krause said. "I don't have any doubt about it."

They will shut down some things, not full lockdown. Bars etc are being restricted in several countries.

Netherlands enforced a lockdown

Chris Witty also saying the same sort of thing.

Let's look at Whitty's credentials: BA in Physiology, DSc in medical science, BM BCh in Medicine, DTM&H in Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, MSc in Epidemiology, LLM in Medical Law, MBA, DipEcon in Economics. Consultant doctor, Chief Scientific Advisor, Chief Medical Officer, Professor, researcher.

If there is a literal choice between letting hospitality go to the wall or let the NHS collapse. Are folk seriously advocating sacrificing the health service to keep hospitality industry solvent? The government should be funding them instead like the countries above are doing.

There is no good choices in this. It's not some parochial political thing, it's a 20 month long global event.

Yeah this is the situation. In that, we are probably locked into a pretty big spike already (we knew this a couple of weeks ago). 

Timing is everything.  I guess the positive is that we are well-boosted up in the most vulnerable (and I saw something about vaccine + booster = 80% effectiveness. So a large spike now might even = better result (in terms of Covid deaths at least) than a smaller longer spike later. Albeit the trauma for NHS staff, plus additional strain on services is a big price to pay. 

[Morrisandmoo]

9 minutes ago, phart said:

I'm favouring optimism today

 

 

Spike in cleavage efficiency you say? That does sound positive. 

[thplinth]

39 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

You asked this "Whys everyone getting booster vaccines if we get locked down anyway, utter madness"

I think the two things should be looked at separately as two different ways to reduce the effects of the virus. There is no doubt in my mind that the vaccines are working and they are working very well. Society had pretty much been opened up, and not far off, back to normal before omicron came on the scene. IMO the reason we were able to do that was largely due to the vaccines. 

Lockdown style restrictions are designed to try to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed with COVID cases. Do you not have any anecdotes from folk who work in the NHS and are watching people suffering and dying of COVID everyday?

Right... nothing to do with summer and being out of flu season. It was the same pattern the year before as well. 

Probably should have gone much sooner but instead they kidded on that vaccine passports worked to blackmail more folk into taking vaccines... 

 

[thplinth]

If we had to live in lockdown conditions permanently, for the rest of our lives, in order to be 'safe'. Is that a price worth paying. Clearly no. So how many years does it take to not be a price a worth paying, two, three, four... Sometimes the cure becomes worse than the disease. I am not saying we are at that point but it is definitely approaching (for me at least).

This thing has run two years now, if we are having a similar conversation this time next year (or worse) then we have fucked up.

You always compare it to what if we had done nothing... would it be over by now? Too early to say...

Edited December 21, 2021 by thplinth

[Morrisandmoo]

7 minutes ago, thplinth said:

If we had to live in lockdown conditions permanently, for the rest of our lives, in order to be 'safe'. Is that a price worth paying. Clearly no. So how many years does it take to not be a price a worth paying, two, three, four... Sometimes the cure becomes worse than the disease. I am not saying we are at that point but it is definitely approaching (for me at least).

This thing has run two years now, if we are having a similar conversation this time next year (or worse) then we have fucked up.

It's an important question. 

I think it comes down to what short lockdowns get you in different scenarios: risk vs reward. A few weeks ago I would have supported lockdown of hospitality because of Omicron threat to (1) allow boosters to roll out more (2) figure out severity and vaccine effectiveness (3) give time to develop Omicron specific vaccine if needed. (4) most importantly protect Ayrshire derby on 2nd January. 

To me there were lots of benefits. Locking down now or after Christmas probably has much much less benefit. So I'm less supportive now, but open to others' views. I kind of think though that if the shit is coming, then it is coming now and it'll be over soon. Hold your nose and help NHS staff as much as we can. 

Going forwards I think there will continue to be periods where lockdowns make sense. But we do need to get our heads around the fact that covid is not going away anytime soon, a zero covid strategy is not viable, everybody obsessing about the numbers year round is unhealthy and that mortality rates have stepped back 20 years -> therefore investment needed to adapt to this. The more humans normalise the risk and the more our infrastructure adapts to it , then the less disruptive it will be.

We also need politicians to be more positive and less divisive, especially during the "good times" and not bringing in ineffective,discriminatory and coercive measures like vaccine passports. It undermines support for genuinely effective measures. 

I imagine some of these judgements and debates will start to emerge during the next election cycle - with perhaps "alternatives" springing up across Europe.

[chaff]

4 hours ago, aaid said:

Some good pubs in Chippenham. Bruce and I had a good session in the Old Road Tavern one Saturday after Football a few years back. 

It's about 8 miles from my sisters, she lives in a tiny wee village.

I missed Bruce in Berlin by a day a few weeks back.

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

You asked this "Whys everyone getting booster vaccines if we get locked down anyway, utter madness"

I think the two things should be looked at separately as two different ways to reduce the effects of the virus. There is no doubt in my mind that the vaccines are working and they are working very well. Society had pretty much been opened up, and not far off, back to normal before omicron came on the scene. IMO the reason we were able to do that was largely due to the vaccines. 

Lockdown style restrictions are designed to try to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed with COVID cases. Do you not have any anecdotes from folk who work in the NHS and are watching people suffering and dying of COVID everyday?

Oh here we go,, the usual card being pulled 

[vanderark14]

22 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Oh here we go,, the usual card being pulled 

What card?

[Toepoke]

Football crowds restricted to 500? 😖 FFS!

[86glebestreet]

55 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

What card?

Come on, don’t play dumb, you know what card he is talking about.

🤣🤣

[vanderark14]

13 minutes ago, 86glebestreet said:

Come on, don’t play dumb, you know what card he is talking about.

🤣🤣

It was a genuine question. You obviously know so perhaps you could enlighten me

[86glebestreet]

2 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

It was a genuine question. You obviously know so perhaps you could enlighten me

Yours was a genuine question, mine was a joke. I haven’t a clue.

[vanderark14]

10 minutes ago, 86glebestreet said:

Yours was a genuine question, mine was a joke. I haven’t a clue.

🤣👍

[King Of Paisley]

Would bring forward the winter break in the Premier League

[Orraloon]

26 minutes ago, 86glebestreet said:

Yours was a genuine question, mine was a joke. I haven’t a clue.

I do, but I'm no telling anybody. 😉

[thplinth]

It was the tedious wee dig about ‘anecdotes’. After being accused of lying on the other thread and a few other examples going back.

[Orraloon]

21 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Would bring forward the winter break in the Premier League

Sounds sensible, so they probably won't do it. 😂

[Orraloon]

3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

It was the tedious wee dig about ‘anecdotes’. After being accused of lying on the other thread and a few other examples going back.

FFS min, spoiler alert.

This was about to turn into the most interesting quiz of the year.