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General Election 2019


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In the run up to this election i have taken a real interest in past election results in Scotland, i must say that i don't think the SNP receive enough credit for what that have done over the last 20 years, it really is extraordinary, places like aberdeen south which used to return 4k votes now has 20k+ and that is replicated in seats throughout scotland, its remarkable. 

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23 hours ago, exile said:

'Guarantee'? I think he could be bluffing there. It's kneejerk. They (Downing St) haven't had time to think through an indy strategy, I'd wager. I'l just be now appearing as a slightly tricky fly in the ointment, they'll try to bat away for now. But I think we have yet to see what a cummings style assault on indy will be. The man who more or less said Northern Ireland could f off into the sea.  

There is also a chance (however small) that Johnson will not be as extreme as some of his opponents make out. He player the Brexiteer to gain profile, became Foreign Secretary, then PM. He outmanoeuvered the real Brexiteers to get his 'oftish, messy 'deal' accepted. Now he has a huge mandate he can call his own. He could go whichever way he likes.  

When he was mayor of London, he did some ordinary, popular things, that got him re-elected. He actually stood up to the Government on immigration (at least for some categories of people) - as someone said he is socially liberal in some ways. I am not being an apologist for Johnson or his racism or do whistling etc. but just looking more closely at him in a 'know thy enemy' sense.  

Also I do think he has some personal crossover appeal - again, as seen in London - I am sure there are some who would never have voted for Hunt, Gove, May, Javid, IDS, etc. who would go soft and voted Boris. Again, i am not praising his character, but just acknowledging the reality of his electability. 

I agree with your last sentence. The Tories used an unspent ()and cross party) passion for getting Brexit done to sluice in a Tory victory. Clearly, with or without hindsight, the election was not entirely to Labour's or LibDem's advantage. SNP has been vindicated for risking the election and coming out stronger. 

You are right on a lot of those points Exile, and no doubt the promise of that  ‘guarantee’ will be conveniently forgotten by the media if the pressure gets too much and he has to concede to indyref2.

 I must be missing something in Johnson as I truly find him a repugnant arrogant ass . I find his bumbling persona both devious and irritating ,  I just  cannot see the appeal.
I accept other people see him differently but I can honestly say I do not know one person, apart from the odd Tory , that likes or rates him. And that includes many people who are against independence. 
 

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52 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

In the run up to this election i have taken a real interest in past election results in Scotland, i must say that i don't think the SNP receive enough credit for what that have done over the last 20 years, it really is extraordinary, places like aberdeen south which used to return 4k votes now has 20k+ and that is replicated in seats throughout scotland, its remarkable. 

Are you now prepared to accept that Glasgow isn't going back to Labour any time soon?

One thing that the SNP have traditionally found difficult has been to translate their underlying support across the country into seats at UK elections, with certain geographical exceptions which now ironically appear to have "deserted" them.

A lot of that has to do with a struggle to appear relevant in a contest that is always going to be between the Tories and Labour and FPTP has really been their enemy.

Undoubtedly Holyrood has helped hugely as that's given them a voice both in opposition and in power and has gotten more people into the habit of voting SNP whereas in the past they'd have voted Labour most likely.

You saw this between the two SNP Holyrood victories in 2007 and 2011, in the 2010 GE, they got 20% of the vote and only 6 seats, whereas Labour got 41 seats off 42% of the vote.

That's all changed since 2014 of course and now FPTP is their friend as they're the only party for the 50% or so who support Indy.

The other difference is that they've shown themselves to be a very effective party of opposition in Westminster, certainly more effective than the official opposition, so the issue of relevance is no longer the problem it once was.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

You are right on a lot of those points Exile, and no doubt the promise of that  ‘guarantee’ will be conveniently forgotten by the media if the pressure gets too much and he has to concede to indyref2.

 I must be missing something in Johnson as I truly find him a repugnant arrogant ass . I find his bumbling persona both devious and irritating ,  I just  cannot see the appeal.
I accept other people see him differently but I can honestly say I do not know one person, apart from the odd Tory , that likes or rates him. And that includes many people who are against independence. 
 

Funnily enough, the only person I know who is an actual member of the Tory party - or at least is prepared to admit it - can't stand him.  

I was talking to him just after he became leader and he was absolutely scathing about him and said he was embarrassed that the Tories had made him their leader.  

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28 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

You are right on a lot of those points Exile, and no doubt the promise of that  ‘guarantee’ will be conveniently forgotten by the media if the pressure gets too much and he has to concede to indyref2.

 I must be missing something in Johnson as I truly find him a repugnant arrogant ass . I find his bumbling persona both devious and irritating ,  I just  cannot see the appeal.
I accept other people see him differently but I can honestly say I do not know one person, apart from the odd Tory , that likes or rates him. And that includes many people who are against independence. 
 

How many vote against rather than actually for something? 

I know a handful of folk who’ve moved back to England from Australia / NZ and all voted conservative this election for the first time because they felt they couldn’t Labour this time.

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Got to marvel at the all front and BS of Tories. One on The Andrew Marr Show lapped up Sturgeon's comment that not all SNP voters back indy and tried rubbing a few percent off of those backing indy and didn't care to conceded that not all people who voted Labour and Tory support the union. These Tories are frigging unreal for BS.

 

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33 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

You are right on a lot of those points Exile, and no doubt the promise of that  ‘guarantee’ will be conveniently forgotten by the media if the pressure gets too much and he has to concede to indyref2.

 I must be missing something in Johnson as I truly find him a repugnant arrogant ass . I find his bumbling persona both devious and irritating ,  I just  cannot see the appeal.
I accept other people see him differently but I can honestly say I do not know one person, apart from the odd Tory , that likes or rates him. And that includes many people who are against independence. 
 

Johnson may be a repugnant arrogant ass. But he has an element of the maverick, that must appeal to some. As I say, people who wouldn't vote for a party drone like Hunt, might be prepared to give Johnson a shot. It worked in London - he managed to get elected and re-elected. 

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42 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

You are right on a lot of those points Exile, and no doubt the promise of that  ‘guarantee’ will be conveniently forgotten by the media if the pressure gets too much and he has to concede to indyref2.

 
 

Exactly. As far as I am aware he hasn't been found lying dead in a ditch yet.

 

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8 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

How many vote against rather than actually for something? 

I know a handful of folk who’ve moved back to England from Australia / NZ and all voted conservative this election for the first time because they felt they couldn’t Labour this time.

I think a lot of  people in England voted for a party different to their usual preferred party. I think that choosing Conservative as a default , as you have mentioned, was probably replicated amongst a large section of the electorate. As I mentioned before, I also think many voted for the Tories as they are sick of Brexit dragging on. 

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3 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I think a lot of  people in England voted for a party different to their usual preferred party. I think that choosing Conservative as a default , as you have mentioned, was probably replicated amongst a large section of the electorate. As I mentioned before, I also think many voted for the Tories as they are sick of Brexit dragging on. 

I think also (ex) Labour voters in North of England often voted Brexit Party if they couldn't bring themselves to actually vote Tory, but it enabled Tory gains in unlikely areas. 

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1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

As I mentioned before, I also think many voted for the Tories as they are sick of Brexit dragging on. 

This is a huge factor - however the state of the Labour party made that an easier decision for many than it otherwise would've been.

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7 minutes ago, Auchinyell Sox Change said:

am assuming that GE result effectively puts an end to / replaces "the peoples vote" ?

Obv

The buck now stops at Bojo

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