Voting

[Ally Bongo]

 

GAPonsonby ‏@GAPonsonby

It became trendy in some quarters to snipe at the SNP. 'Look how cool and radical I am, I'm a free thinker.' They created their own cult.

[Scunnered]

5 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

GAPonsonby ‏@GAPonsonby

It became trendy in some quarters to snipe at the SNP. 'Look how cool and radical I am, I'm a free thinker.' They created their own cult.

 

[phart]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

GAPonsonby ‏@GAPonsonby

It became trendy in some quarters to snipe at the SNP. 'Look how cool and radical I am, I'm a free thinker.' They created their own cult.

GAPonsonby ‏@GAPonsonby 1h1 hour ago

Claims that #indyref2 is dead appear to have been premature if Nicola Sturgeon is to be believed.

[Ally Bongo]

The option to have a referendum is clear but imo we wont have it in the next 5 years as i cant see any circumstance that would generate the necessary voting majority to win it

The UK wont vote to leave the EU for example

The Tories would need to do something dramatic and holding Davidson to account for their cuts wont be enough

I am happy to be wrong

 

 

[Redz]

5 hours ago, Scunnered said:

He didn't ask me to name the TAMBER who is concerned about said vocal section, if he did I wouldn't.  They posted their concerns on Facebook, it would be wrong of me to bring them to this board.  They're a regular poster so I'm sure they will see this thread, then it will be up to them whether they share their concerns or not.

That wasn't what he asked you though.

He asked you to name the 'outraged vocal section' within the SNP you alluded to. Or at  least, that's how I read it.

It was you who brought the tamber into the equation.

As I said, it's a reasonable and straight forward question - You really need to answer that I think.

 

[thplinth]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

GAPonsonby ‏@GAPonsonby

It became trendy in some quarters to snipe at the SNP. 'Look how cool and radical I am, I'm a free thinker.' They created their own cult.

There has definitely been a fair bit of that post No. The folk that were attracted to it purely for it promise of success were equally repelled by its failure post No.

[phart]

The SNP, for me, was a vehicle to get independence which was a vehicle to starting out anew with how we collectively administrate society. I don't even believe in Governments, I certainly don't believe parties are a correct way to do politics. Let's create a conflict of interest right at the beginning of the process, split loyalties.  Even less so career politicians.

[thplinth]

I always liked the idea of a parliament of folk all voting on each issue according to what they thought was right without care for prior allegiances. The whole party thing is pish.

Party politics (I am sure) created "career politicians".

Or another word for them that everyone can relate to "company men".

Just the public v private versions of the whanks that screw the world.

[stocky]

10 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

On reflection this point is irrelevant. As just as many pro-independence voters are popping their clogs as unionist voters so it is status quo.

Also if you think about it unionism (just as other traits and beliefs) are engrained into children's psyche from a very young age. Just as you get two-year-old bairns photographed in Celtic or Rangers tops you get parents programming their children - sounds callous but it clearly does happen. And so by the time they go to school their mindset for life is fixed and it is continually drilled into them. Not just picking on unionism here - it happens in all beliefs and such-like.

not so C. C

7out of every 10 voters over 70 are no voters.

7 out of 10 under 21's were yes voters.

 

So as the older die, more nos go that yes's do, and more yes's come into teh voters role than no'ers. 

 

Now of course people who are dying young

I have no data for, and your point is valid. 

[phart]

3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

I always liked the idea of a parliament of folk all voting on each issue according to what they thought was right without care for prior allegiances. The whole party thing is pish.

Party politics (I am sure) created "career politicians".

Or another word for them that everyone can relate to "company men".

Just the public v private versions of the whanks that screw the world.

Yeah all the oxbridge folk are brought up on thinks like Plato's Republic. Where the best rule is benevolent kings making all the decisions. Everyone sees themselves as benevolent rulers, but lord of the flies is nearer.

[Toepoke]

15 minutes ago, stocky said:

7out of every 10 voters over 70 are no voters.

7 out of 10 under 21's were yes voters.

 

So as the older die, more nos go that yes's do, and more yes's come into teh voters role than no'ers. 

That assumes that Yes voters don't become elderly No voters.

Yes voters tend to have a positive outlook on life, but it's a Scottish rite of passage to become a crabbit old bugger...

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, Toepoke said:

That assumes that Yes voters don't become elderly No voters.

Yes voters tend to have a positive outlook on life, but it's a Scottish rite of passage to become a crabbit old bugger...

We should also be a wee bit sceptical about the stats for the over 70s. These are based on somebody asking them, after the event, how they voted. A lot of folk over 70 can't remember when they voted, where they voted, or even IF they voted, never mind how they voted. "Have I had my tea yet?"

[EddardStark]

On 07/05/2016 at 11:45 AM, antidote said:

If the SG take you up on your ideas then many more than just you could jump.

Don't know anything about land reform. If the greens had their way then there would have not have been a new Forth bridge.

Local taxation may mean you gain, but many lose, so SG lose more votes than yours. It's a fine balancing act.

I speak to a Green activist on a daily basis and he will dump the greens in a flash, as many will, if they baulk from another Indi referendum.

It's the unionists that have been mumping on about Independence, especially the tories, more than anybody.

If the Scottish people want another Indi referendum then that's what will happen. 

According to the latest polls the support for independence is in decline since the referendum. Quite a big shift to Don't Know. Support from the No preference has also dropped.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-the-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-a#line

Edited May 9, 2016 by EddardStark

[stocky]

oops

Edited May 9, 2016 by stocky

[stocky]

1 hour ago, EddardStark said:

According to the latest polls the support for independence is in decline since the referendum. Quite a big shift to Don't Know. Support from the No preference has also dropped.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-the-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-a#line

Pish Eddard

 

Last Thursday haad Independence partys at 48% and Dependent parties at 52%  no Poll. real result.

Not much movement

But movement in the right direction...

[antidote]

1 hour ago, EddardStark said:

According to the latest polls the support for independence is in decline since the referendum. Quite a big shift to Don't Know. Support from the No preference has also dropped.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-the-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-a#line

Recently as last month I seen a poll that showed the support for Independence was holding up, but a few no supporters had moved to don't knows.

I can't find that poll now to show reference, but I also remember for the vast majority of the Independence campaign all of the opinion polls were showing YES at, or around, 30% and look what the eventual result was. 

The SNP are now slowly starting another Independence campaign to build on the success of the YES vote.

It could have been this poll and remember this is on the backdrop of all our economic woes the unionist friendly newspapers keep reminding us about.

http://survation.com/latest-scottish-independence-poll-survation-for-scottish-daily-mail/ 

Edited May 9, 2016 by antidote

[HUNTINGMcGREGOR]

11 minutes ago, stocky said:

Pish Eddard

 

Last Thursday haad Independence partys at 48% and Dependent parties at 52%  no Poll. real result.

Not much movement

But movement in the right direction...

 

My Dad has been converted to SNP, but could never vote for Independence. No need to respond to these 5 points - I tried my best but he was feart.

1. They were gonna "take' his pension.

2. He didnae like Salmond, but he likes Wee Nic.

3. Salmond got the Oil price wrong.

4. Prices in Tesco and Asda were gonna get put up.

5. Your no here to read to whats actually going on in the press and the papers. (The Sun, Daily Record etc).

 

I don't think it is as clear cut as 48% and 52% - its a different demograph/set of voters. 

 

To have IndyRef2 now or imminently WILL MAKE IT A ONCE IN A LIFETIME CHANCE as a NO VOTE will effectively KILL IT. Some good points above and we need to be patient. 

My concern, as expressed in earlier posts is that through time, people will realise the SNP are impotent if we still get TORY in the General Election and give Labour a chance to regroup. Youth of today are unaware of Thatcher, but are aware of Blair !

 

SNP have to forge ahead with great administration and competency in GOVT so the other at least 20% of the 55% people win their confidence. 

Next parliament should be interesting, especially with less Kez. 

 

 

 

 

[HUNTINGMcGREGOR]

Also, this was a post of mine re General Election and IndyRef.

 

3.6 miilion turned out for the Referendum (85%) - so 4.3 million elegible

2.0 million No 55%

1.6 million Yes 45%

 

2.9 million turned out for Election (71%) - so 4.1 million elegible

1.45 million voted SNP 50%,

1.45 million didn't. 50%

 

700k didn't or couldn't vote. 200k missing based on elegibility (Under 18's?)

 

500k obvioulsy didn't feel as strongly about the election as they did for IndieRef.

 

How does it compare with the Scottish Elections ?

Can anyone read more into these bag of fag packet figures ?

[antidote]

Agree there shouldn't be another referendum for at least 4-5 years, but the building for that referendum is and should start now.

[HUNTINGMcGREGOR]

4 minutes ago, antidote said:

Agree there shouldn't be another referendum for at least 4-5 years, but the building for that referendum is and should start now.

Agreed, but the SNP and Wee Nic have never kept harping on about it, and don't harp on about - and are trying to move on (while it will always be there as the ultimate goal).

You can tell by all her responses - its not on the Agenda for now, its is not imminent (I don't think Brexit will be enough) and they have to have a good run and it's gonna take time.

Indy Ref in hindsight was maybe just too soon. I think it caught Scotland totally unawares in the 6 month run up to it, most folk were not politically engaged enough, and so had to make decisions in a little window of time - human nature says they would err on the cautious side - Better the Devil you know.

 

 

[antidote]

41 minutes ago, HUNTINGMcGREGOR said:

Agreed, but the SNP and Wee Nic have never kept harping on about it, and don't harp on about - and are trying to move on (while it will always be there as the ultimate goal).

You can tell by all her responses - its not on the Agenda for now, its is not imminent (I don't think Brexit will be enough) and they have to have a good run and it's gonna take time.

Indy Ref in hindsight was maybe just too soon. I think it caught Scotland totally unawares in the 6 month run up to it, most folk were not politically engaged enough, and so had to make decisions in a little window of time - human nature says they would err on the cautious side - Better the Devil you know.

 

 

You need to take your blue/red tinted glasses off if you think that NS (noted the wee nic part there) has been harping on about it.

If anything it has been the unionists especially Ruffalo the tank commander who have been going on about Indi II. 

Even yesterday on Sunday politics she was harping on about it.

Sorry, I found that the last referendum wasn't too soon and I thought a lot of people were well informed, through social media especially.

Of course I would say that a lot of people like your dad were misinformed by the MSM, hence the misconception about pensions, even though many of our population are seeing a huge cut in our state pensions now. In fact, IMO, many teenagers will be lucky to even see a state pension if the reach a ripe old age.

Then there's hatred of AS. Looks like he's fallen for the MSM, especially the DM, to demonise AS.

His oil price valuation? I think all the commentary got that wrong and I'm sure I heard it say that his estimation of the oil price was a mid range estimate of westminster's figures?

Prices going up at tesco & asda etc. is just a complete scare story (not going there Larky, scunnered etc.) that is being played out right now with Brexit.

It's just that a scare story to put the fear into people.

You see he and many others like him had fallen for the MSM propaganda which liked to pump out all the scare stories unquestionably.

Hopefully over the coming years the SG campaign on another Indi referendum will allay any fears to people like him. Well I hope so anyway.  

I do agree with your last line where people will stick with the devil they know. 

Edited May 9, 2016 by antidote

[aaid]

2 hours ago, EddardStark said:

According to the latest polls the support for independence is in decline since the referendum. Quite a big shift to Don't Know. Support from the No preference has also dropped.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-the-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-a#line

Keep clutching at those straws.  Remove the don't knows and that graph looks to me as if it's essentially 50/50 since November 2014.  Some minor changes month on month but no discernible trend other than the country is essentially spilt down the middle. 

[HUNTINGMcGREGOR]

17 minutes ago, antidote said:

You need to take your blue tinted glasses off if you think that NS (noted the wee nic part there) has been harping on about it.

If anything it has been the unionists especially Ruffalo the tank commander who have been going on about Indi II. 

Even yesterday on Sunday politics she was harping on about it.

Sorry, I found that the last referendum wasn't too soon and I thought a lot of people were well informed, through social media especially.

Of course I would say that a lot of people like your dad were misinformed by the MSM, hence the misconception about pensions, even though many of our population are seeing a huge cut in our state pensions now. In fact, IMO, many teenagers will be lucky to even see a state pension if the reach a ripe old age.

Then there's hatred of AS. Looks like he's fallen for the MSM, especially the DM, to demonise AS.

His oil price valuation? I think all the commentary got that wrong and I'm sure I heard it say that his estimation of the oil price was a mid range estimate of westminster's figures?

Prices going up at tesco & asda etc. is just a complete scare story (not going there Larky, scunnered etc.) that is being played out right now with Brexit.

It's just that a scare story to put the fear into people.

You see he and many others like him had fallen for the MSM propaganda which liked to pump out all the scare stories unquestionably.

Hopefully over the coming years the SG campaign on another Indi referendum will allay any fears to people like him. Well I hope so anyway.  

I do agree with your last line where people will stick with the devil they know. 

I think you have misread me. I think you may have read my post to quickly to understand what I was saying.

I said she has "NEVER" harped on about it, and has "NEVER" harped on about it ?

I also said no need to respond to my Dad's thoughts - I managed to get him to Vote SNP, in the GE but he could not vote for Indi - I did say I tried, but he is a generalisation of what the FEAR was from back home.

 

YOU ARE PREACHING TO THE CONVERTED MATE - Just saying it was All too soon for Dad and the rest of the folks who never realised what it was all about.

 

Alba Gru Brath

Edited May 9, 2016 by HUNTINGMcGREGOR

[aaid]

49 minutes ago, antidote said:

Agree there shouldn't be another referendum for at least 4-5 years, but the building for that referendum is and should start now.

I think that's the most likely timescale - external factors like Brexit aside - before support will get to an acceptable level to call a second referendum. 

I don't think you'll see any major jumps in support for independence but a steady 1-2% increase year on year.  That's not going to happen without a lot of work though  the SNP will need to continue to provide competent government and more work needs to be done on the weaker 2014 arguments.

My view is if support for Independence is in the high 50s by the end of the decade, then the 2021 election will be fought solely on the constitution and that following on from that a second referendum in late 2021. 

[Ally Bongo]

David Torrance writes in today's Herald that the Ulsterisation of Scottish Politics is complete

I wont even quote a link to it as the man is clearly an anus

He hopes that it is - but it isnt