Voting

[antidote]

55 minutes ago, HUNTINGMcGREGOR said:

I think you have misread me. I think you may have read my post to quickly to understand what I was saying.

I said she has "NEVER" harped on about it, and has "NEVER" harped on about it ?

I also said no need to respond to my Dad's thoughts - I managed to get him to Vote SNP, in the GE but he could not vote for Indi - I did say I tried, but he is a generalisation of what the FEAR was from back home.

 

YOU ARE PREACHING TO THE CONVERTED MATE - Just saying it was All too soon for Dad and the rest of the folks who never realised what it was all about.

 

Alba Gru Brath

Apologise.

Kids driving me up the wall with sleepless nights etc.

[Auld_Reekie]

The EU referendum will be last flashpoint and then we are for a long haul. Unless there large UK support to leave and large Scottish support to remain, I cant see us going for another referendum - even if there's a brexit vote, it's a massive gamble to go again especially in such a loaded atmosphere - the weeks following a vote to leave will be carnage and Sturgeon et al will have a huge call on their hands.

Assuming we vote to stay in though, we're back to 2021 - 2020 will likely see election of another Tory government and will another 3/4 years of cuts, there's a good chance we'll see the 2021 Scottish election fought on an explicit manifesto commitment to another referendum. I think this is why Sturgeon will be re-launching independence campaign this summer - another long, slow campaign aimed at keeping it in public discourse and hopefully addressing some of the failings of the last campaign. Beyond that, we're looking at referendum's aligned to Scottish elections, so 2021, 2026, etc.

It's a huge ask to expect the SNP to hold power indefinitely, which is why it is imperative that the independence movement remains diverse - especially in Holyrood.

[HUNTINGMcGREGOR]

We need to work out why these people are voting Tory. 

29 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

The EU referendum will be last flashpoint and then we are for a long haul. Unless there large UK support to leave and large Scottish support to remain, I cant see us going for another referendum - even if there's a brexit vote, it's a massive gamble to go again especially in such a loaded atmosphere - the weeks following a vote to leave will be carnage and Sturgeon et al will have a huge call on their hands.

Assuming we vote to stay in though, we're back to 2021 - 2020 will likely see election of another Tory government and will another 3/4 years of cuts, there's a good chance we'll see the 2021 Scottish election fought on an explicit manifesto commitment to another referendum. I think this is why Sturgeon will be re-launching independence campaign this summer - another long, slow campaign aimed at keeping it in public discourse and hopefully addressing some of the failings of the last campaign. Beyond that, we're looking at referendum's aligned to Scottish elections, so 2021, 2026, etc.

It's a huge ask to expect the SNP to hold power indefinitely, which is why it is imperative that the independence movement remains diverse - especially in Holyrood.

^^^^

Fantastic Post. However I disagree with one aspect, I think SNP will keep IndieRef2 very very very LOW key.

[Guest BlueGaz]

On 5/5/2016 at 10:40 AM, Ally Bongo said:

 

 

 

Marcus Chown ‏@marcuschown

Voting Tory is like saying: Keep lying to me. Keep screwing me over. Keep transferring my money to your mates' pockets. I love it!

Looking to the future thats one of only 4 real options. If/when it becomes apparent there won't be another referendum, then what?  How many people only vote for the SNP because of indi?  I don't think there will be another referendum, and I honestly believe that the hierarchy of the SNP know that too - but they can't say it, will lose far too many votes and at best, become opposition, although I think they would be number 3.

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, BlueGaz said:

Looking to the future thats one of only 4 real options. If/when it becomes apparent there won't be another referendum, then what?  How many people only vote for the SNP because of indi?  I don't think there will be another referendum, and I honestly believe that the hierarchy of the SNP know that too - but they can't say it, will lose far too many votes and at best, become opposition, although I think they would be number 3.

Interesting point, why don't you think there will be another referendum?

[Guest BlueGaz]

5 minutes ago, aaid said:

Interesting point, why don't you think there will be another referendum?

I don't see a basis for it.  The only 2 real options I have seen so far that could form a basis for another referendum so quickly (by so quickly I mean for a 2nd time in a generation) is firstly, the UK decide to leave the EU, but Scotland [pro rata] decide not to, but, we voted to remain as part of the UK, so I personally don't see that as a basis.

The other point mentioned a lot recently by Sturgeon is if the polls consistently show that the Yes vote is more than the No vote.  But to me, that won't go forward either.  What if we gain independence and it all goes to rat shit, do we keep watching the polls and vote to go back to the UK etc?  I just don't see it happening.

In the last debate that I saw on the tele, Rennie said that he would go as far to say that the SNP are anti-Democratic.  When you listen to the potential reasons that the SNP see as foundations for another referendum, I would have to agree with him.

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

My view is if support for Independence is in the high 50s by the end of the decade, then the 2021 election will be fought solely on the constitution and that following on from that a second referendum in late 2021. 

I'm unsure if support will get that high by then, although Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will would be a major boost.

I agree that's the kind of level of support that would be needed before another vote could even be considered, obviously over a sustained period too and with the direction of travel continually upwards. No point pushing for independence if Unionism is becoming more popular...

[Rossy]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

David Torrance writes in today's Herald that the Ulsterisation of Scottish Politics is complete

I wont even quote a link to it as the man is clearly an anus

He hopes that it is - but it isnt

He's not far away from the truth.

Davidson conducted a Loyalist, Ulster-lite campaign based on once thing and one thing only....attracting 'soft' Unionists by demonizing the SNP.

Her whole campaign was based on avoiding the words 'Conservative' and 'Cameron', and she was conspicuous by her absence when big issues arose such as the Tory civil war over the EU, tax havens for their rich friends, the delay in ship-building contracts to the Clyde, and the Tories unwillingness to give refuge to child refugees.

With Labour sidelined and unable to choose which side of the constitutional argument it wishes to fall, Scotland is now effectively polarised into Nationalists and Unionists.

That suits Davidson, because her unwillingness to answer the hard questions is compensated by the fact that she's protected and championed by a right-wing press that effectively wants the SNP to cease to exist.

She's an extremist. Maybe not as bigoted and dangerous as the likes of Ian Paisley in Northern Ireland, but an extremist none the less.

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Rossy

[Guest BlueGaz]

7 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

I'm unsure if support will get that high by then, although Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will would be a major boost.

I agree that's the kind of level of support that would be needed before another vote could even be considered, obviously over a sustained period too and with the direction of travel continually upwards. No point pushing for independence if Unionism is becoming more popular...

How accurate were the polls building up to the referendum, compared to the actual result?  I seem to remember results which were not very accurate in the end, although I sometimes struggle to remember what I did last week to be fair.

[Toepoke]

4 minutes ago, BlueGaz said:

How accurate were the polls building up to the referendum, compared to the actual result?  I seem to remember results which were not very accurate in the end, although I sometimes struggle to remember what I did last week to be fair.

The general trend wasn't far off.  Possibly a 53:47 result would have been closer to the polls.

There was that outlier in the Sunday Times that caused all hell to break loose (you'd almost have thought that was intentional  )...

[Toepoke]

7 minutes ago, Rossy said:

She's an extremist. Maybe not as bigoted and dangerous as the likes of Ian Paisley in Northern Ireland, but an extremist none the less.

Tend to agree. Although with that in mind she probably kept the UKIP vote down so we can thank her for that...

 

[aaid]

17 minutes ago, BlueGaz said:

How accurate were the polls building up to the referendum, compared to the actual result?  I seem to remember results which were not very accurate in the end, although I sometimes struggle to remember what I did last week to be fair.

Polls are just a snapshot view, they are not a prediction, especially where something with potentially complicated outcomes like an election is concerned.  Over time though they do show trends.

Winds me up a bit people going on about "when the polls say" as if the polls themselves that are important, they are not, they only reflect public opinion.  The polls won't get to 60% - I'm not saying that's the magic number - by themselves, only by people changing their minds. 

I can completely understand why commentators ask the question about what level for how long and when but it's essentially meaningless.   The truth is that when time comes you'll know it's the right time.

What was the fundamental difference between the 1979 and 1997 referendums - putting aside the 40% clause - it's that in 1979 the result was far from certain, in 1997, the result wasn't really in any doubt, the only question was the size of the majority and also whether there would be a majority on the second question or not. 

Public opinion in favour shifted from 52% to 74% between the two referendums.  I think it's a fair assumption that had there not been 18 years of Tory government in the interim, devolution would have been delivered a lot earlier.

[Clyde1998]

53 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

The general trend wasn't far off.  Possibly a 53:47 result would have been closer to the polls.

There was that outlier in the Sunday Times that caused all hell to break loose (you'd almost have thought that was intentional  )...

I don't think it was an outlier:

Polls in early September:

• TNS BMRB (27 Aug-4 Sep) - 38% Yes; 39% No (49-51)
• Panelbase/Yes Scotland (2-4 Sep) - 44% Yes; 48% No (48-52)
• YouGov/Sunday Times (2-5 Sep) - 47% Yes; 46% No (51-49)

Also, it's been suggested that it wasn't just the YouGov poll that caused all hell to break lose, but a UK Government (or No Campaign) internal poll - that showed Yes at 54% - which helped form the basis for the Vow.

[Clyde1998]

52 minutes ago, aaid said:

Polls are just a snapshot view, they are not a prediction, especially where something with potentially complicated outcomes like an election is concerned.  Over time though they do show trends.

Winds me up a bit people going on about "when the polls say" as if the polls themselves that are important, they are not, they only reflect public opinion.  The polls won't get to 60% - I'm not saying that's the magic number - by themselves, only by people changing their minds. 

I can completely understand why commentators ask the question about what level for how long and when but it's essentially meaningless.   The truth is that when time comes you'll know it's the right time.

What was the fundamental difference between the 1979 and 1997 referendums - putting aside the 40% clause - it's that in 1979 the result was far from certain, in 1997, the result wasn't really in any doubt, the only question was the size of the majority and also whether there would be a majority on the second question or not. 

Public opinion in favour shifted from 52% to 74% between the two referendums.  I think it's a fair assumption that had there not been 18 years of Tory government in the interim, devolution would have been delivered a lot earlier.

A few months ago, I added the opinion polling data for 1979 to the Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979#Opinion_polling)

They're all from MORI - and show a 27% lead for an Assembly around two weeks out, and a 21% lead just a week out - and it ended with a 3% lead (albeit not above the 40% threshold). What appears to have happened is there was a slight movement away from 'Yes' (55% --> 52%), but the undecided voters moved heavily to 'No' (28% --> 48%).

In 1997, which I found the data for as well (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997#Opinion_polling), the lead was slipping on both questions, again, until the Death of Diana. The death suspended campaigning, and took the momentum away from the No-No campaign - here, though, undecided voters split heavily to Yes-Yes.

It's almost regardless what lead you have going into the campaign - as most people won't have formulated a full opinion on something, as most people wouldn't have heard the arguments for and against.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Clyde1998

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

 Public opinion in favour shifted from 52% to 74% between the two referendums.  I think it's a fair assumption that had there not been 18 years of Tory government in the interim, devolution would have been delivered a lot earlier.

Even then Blair wasn't too keen, if he'd been more experienced in the top job he may well have put the kybosh on it altogether. We can be thankful that Donald Dewar was still around to push it through then.

I suspect a similar scenario may arise if Indyref 2 looks like being a certain Yes vote. We could enter into a lengthy Catalan - Spanish style standoff...

[scotlad]

18 hours ago, Toepoke said:

That assumes that Yes voters don't become elderly No voters.

Yes voters tend to have a positive outlook on life, but it's a Scottish rite of passage to become a crabbit old bugger...

And then there's that other Scottish rite of passage to consider: emigration.

How many of those youngsters who voted for independence will still be here to vote if there's another referendum?
 

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

David Torrance writes in today's Herald that the Ulsterisation of Scottish Politics is complete

I wont even quote a link to it as the man is clearly an anus

He hopes that it is - but it isnt

I heard about that too.

He has a point in the sense that there appears to have been a pro/anti independence dimension to the way people voted (and which the Tories capitalised on).  To infer that Scotland's current political situation is akin to Northern Ireland's is still way off the mark though and quite offensive to those who were affected by the troubles, I reckon.

Still, it assures plenty of attention for Mr Torrance, which was probably the whole point of the article.

[Ally Bongo]

A really good piece from Wings today in my humble opinion

Maybe socialists hate him so much because he is always on the ball regarding socialists 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-separation-of-goals/

[Auld_Reekie]

Wings is a c*nt. Let's be honest. He's barely managed to keep a lid on his c*ntness in the last few weeks - first refusing to retract and apologise for his opinions around Hillsborough, and then demonstrating what a bitter sore loser he is by going tonto at the Greens and others for costing the SNP a majority. He's now showing open hostility to all and sundry who aren't in the SNP and call him out on being a daily pr*ck. I'll be honest, it's him and his merry band who are pushing me close to ditching the SNP and joining the Greens. I sympathise with the SNP as to a certain extent as it's not their fault, but theres little doubt that it's many SNP supporters who fund him. Im not going to be associated with the increasingly pig-ignorant idiots who are coming to taint the SNP.

If it continues, the SNP will suffer electorally and I'd like to help support any party who can help diversify the independence movement. 

[Ally Bongo]

I think he is all right in the most part

[Rossy]

34 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Wings is a c*nt. Let's be honest. He's barely managed to keep a lid on his c*ntness in the last few weeks - first refusing to retract and apologise for his opinions around Hillsborough, and then demonstrating what a bitter sore loser he is by going tonto at the Greens and others for costing the SNP a majority. He's now showing open hostility to all and sundry who aren't in the SNP and call him out on being a daily pr*ck. I'll be honest, it's him and his merry band who are pushing me close to ditching the SNP and joining the Greens. I sympathise with the SNP as to a certain extent as it's not their fault, but theres little doubt that it's many SNP supporters who fund him. Im not going to be associated with the increasingly pig-ignorant idiots who are coming to taint the SNP.

If it continues, the SNP will suffer electorally and I'd like to help support any party who can help diversify the independence movement. 

The SNP will suffer electorally because of one idiot sitting behind his computer in Bath ?

 

[Auld_Reekie]

7 minutes ago, Rossy said:

The SNP will suffer electorally because of one idiot sitting behind his computer in Bath ?

Yeah. Because it's not just one idiot sitting behind his computer in Bath. I cant be the only one who says dozens of absolute nuggets take their lead from Wings and unquestioningly regurgitate his bullsh*t. And if it's not Wings, they're regurgitating some other idiotic nonsense. There's an arrogance and sense of entitlement developing from some in the SNP - expecting the Greens to stand aside in Edinburgh Central for example, while also demanding the SNP get all the list votes is a case in point, and the abuse thrown the Greens' way is typical of Wings and others like him.

IMO, it's exactly these kinds of attitudes that will push people away from the SNP. Myself included.

[Parklife]

56 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Wings is a c*nt. Let's be honest. He's barely managed to keep a lid on his c*ntness in the last few weeks - first refusing to retract and apologise for his opinions around Hillsborough, and then demonstrating what a bitter sore loser he is by going tonto at the Greens and others for costing the SNP a majority. He's now showing open hostility to all and sundry who aren't in the SNP and call him out on being a daily pr*ck. I'll be honest, it's him and his merry band who are pushing me close to ditching the SNP and joining the Greens. I sympathise with the SNP as to a certain extent as it's not their fault, but theres little doubt that it's many SNP supporters who fund him. Im not going to be associated with the increasingly pig-ignorant idiots who are coming to taint the SNP.

If it continues, the SNP will suffer electorally and I'd like to help support any party who can help diversify the independence movement. 

 

9 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Yeah. Because it's not just one idiot sitting behind his computer in Bath. I cant be the only one who says dozens of absolute nuggets take their lead from Wings and unquestioningly regurgitate his bullsh*t. And if it's not Wings, they're regurgitating some other idiotic nonsense. There's an arrogance and sense of entitlement developing from some in the SNP - expecting the Greens to stand aside in Edinburgh Central for example, while also demanding the SNP get all the list votes is a case in point, and the abuse thrown the Greens' way is typical of Wings and others like him.

IMO, it's exactly these kinds of attitudes that will push people away from the SNP. Myself included.

2 excellent posts, Reekie. Bang on the money for me!  

[Rossy]

4 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Yeah. Because it's not just one idiot sitting behind his computer in Bath. I cant be the only one who says dozens of absolute nuggets take their lead from Wings and unquestioningly regurgitate his bullsh*t. And if it's not Wings, they're regurgitating some other idiotic nonsense. There's an arrogance and sense of entitlement developing from some in the SNP - expecting the Greens to stand aside in Edinburgh Central for example, while also demanding the SNP get all the list votes is a case in point, and the abuse thrown the Greens' way is typical of Wings and others like him.

IMO, it's exactly these kinds of attitudes that will push people away from the SNP. Myself included.

I've read a dozen anti-SNP articles in the right-wing press in the last few days that are more extremist and insulting than anything this guy in Bath writes. 

I also read on a daily basis, hundreds of insulting, racist comments from Unionists in all kinds of newspaper forums and on social media. 

You would think that under your reasoning, that kind of garbage would have people flocking to the SNP. I don't believe it does though. 

While I rarely read anything on WoS, I understand some of his stuff can be controversial and offend some. I would say though that there's something wrong with somebody who changes political opinion based on comments that they read on the internet. 

[Auld_Reekie]

4 minutes ago, Rossy said:

I've read a dozen anti-SNP articles in the right-wing press in the last few days that are more extremist and insulting than anything this guy in Bath writes. 

I also read on a daily basis, hundreds of insulting, racist comments from Unionists in all kinds of newspaper forums and on social media. 

You would think that under your reasoning, that kind of garbage would have people flocking to the SNP. I don't believe it does though. 

While I rarely read anything on WoS, I understand some of his stuff can be controversial and offend some. I would say though that there's something wrong with somebody who changes political opinion based on comments that they read on the internet. 

It doesn't overly bother me what the press says, or what Unionists say. But I do bother about what those who are supposed to be on the same side as me say. And what the media and unionists say did have people flocking to the SNP - the 2011, the referendum and General Election confirm that!

I've not changed any political opinions because of what I've read on the internet. My political opinions are actually pretty static over the longer term and truth be told, Im probably more naturally aligned with the Greens but have been a long term SNP member in order to offer support to the best vehicle toward independence. It's got to the point that while the SNP still remain that best hope of independence, I have concerns about whether they can deliver it alone (especially given some of the regular idiotic commentary I now from SNP supporters) and the time is right to offer support that helps diversify the independence movement.

And to be short, I have no problem changing my political support for any party on a whim. Im not supporting any political party like a fitba team.

[antidote]

1 hour ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Wings is a c*nt. Let's be honest. He's barely managed to keep a lid on his c*ntness in the last few weeks - first refusing to retract and apologise for his opinions around Hillsborough, and then demonstrating what a bitter sore loser he is by going tonto at the Greens and others for costing the SNP a majority. He's now showing open hostility to all and sundry who aren't in the SNP and call him out on being a daily pr*ck. I'll be honest, it's him and his merry band who are pushing me close to ditching the SNP and joining the Greens. I sympathise with the SNP as to a certain extent as it's not their fault, but theres little doubt that it's many SNP supporters who fund him. Im not going to be associated with the increasingly pig-ignorant idiots who are coming to taint the SNP.

If it continues, the SNP will suffer electorally and I'd like to help support any party who can help diversify the independence movement. 

Oaf! Again with the threats of not backing the SNP.

Do it already for Gods sake.