hampden_loon2878 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Brexit party not standing in tory held seats is a disaster for labour. We are definitely going to get a tory majority this election. I wonder if the brexit party will stand a candidates in close snp seats where the tories were a close second like perth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 42 minutes ago, TDYER63 said: How the fook does Farage get away with his shit. Less than a week ago he spouting off ‘Johnsons deal is not Brexit’ ,’ His Brexit deal is rotten. However today he is saying that ‘ Johnson is proposing a Brexit that sounded like the option that the British people voted for’ . The guy is a cad and a bounder. He's a kingmaker , in the same way a third party alternate can be used in American elections to leech votes off one of the two main parties and cause someone else to win instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 So a deal between Boris and Nigel as predicted, just need a Tory majority and a no deal Brexit now to come true. The UK is absolutely fucked, regardless of whether you think Brexit is a good thing, it’s been highjacked by the extreme right wing of the Tory Party. The UK Is about to be asset stripped to the extreme. The poor, elderly and anyone in need will be in real trouble, the working class will see rights and benefits stripped back. And ‘we’ voted for it to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The Brexit Party proving to be utter shit houses after all. This sadly stokes up a Tory majority unless Corbyn has the MOA campaigns and gets young people out to vote. If they don't stand in Tory held seats then sadly the Scottish Tories will keep about a lot of their seats. And unless the SNP have a brilliant and exciting campaign, expect to see shitebags like Douglas Ross returned. I'll wait and see how things go but on the back of this right now and digesting it, I'd say SNP -49 seats looks a good bet. Let's see the next days and first debates /campaigning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, weekevie04 said: The Brexit Party proving to be utter shit houses after all. This sadly stokes up a Tory majority unless Corbyn has the MOA campaigns and gets young people out to vote. If they don't stand in Tory held seats then sadly the Scottish Tories will keep about a lot of their seats. And unless the SNP have a brilliant and exciting campaign, expect to see shitebags like Douglas Ross returned. I'll wait and see how things go but on the back of this right now and digesting it, I'd say SNP -49 seats looks a good bet. Let's see the next days and first debates /campaigning. Anything over 40 will be an excellent result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Anything over 40 will be an excellent result. Aye, think so too. Jump on some of those Banff Buchan, Angus, Moray odds etc as Tories 6/4 3/1 etc in some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) The Greens are standing down in a few seats. Encouraging their supporters to vote SNP. Edited November 11, 2019 by ErsatzThistle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I'd say if the SNP get 40+ seats it will have been a fair election. 45 - 49 seats a good election and 50 or over a superb election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 2 hours ago, weekevie04 said: Aye, think so too. Jump on some of those Banff Buchan, Angus, Moray odds etc as Tories 6/4 3/1 etc in some. The northeast will be very very interesting as the tories were elected on the brexit bounce nothing more,, so if the electorate don't buy into the boris brexit or have lost faith in brexit the seats will return, however the brexit issue may still be a massive pull and get voters to vote torie who usually wouldn’t,, i am struggling to judge this ATM, a general feel/mood should start to develop into next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: The northeast will be very very interesting as the tories were elected on the brexit bounce nothing more,, so if the electorate don't buy into the boris brexit or have lost faith in brexit the seats will return, however the brexit issue may still be a massive pull and get voters to vote torie who usually wouldn’t,, i am struggling to judge this ATM, a general feel/mood should start to develop into next week If there's one thing that's going to define this election in Scotland it's how many of the 500,000 people who voted SNP in 2015 but didn't vote for them in 2017 they can get back. Most of these didn't vote at all for whatever reason. If the SNP can get a significant proportion of them back, that should be enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Latest Electoral Calculus predictions saying 11 Tories will be returned up here. 42 SNP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Not everyone thinks this is a guaranteed win for the Tories. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-general-election-2019-a9198596.html%3famp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said: Latest Electoral Calculus predictions saying 11 Tories will be returned up here. 42 SNP. Presumably that's off the back of the BXP not standing in Tory seats. I wouldn't pay any attention to that right now until we see how the impact of today's announcement plays out in polls, e.g. how much the Tory vote share goes up as a result. Even then these sort of election pacts wil make it very difficult for sites like electoral calculus for the following reason. Lets say the Tories are polling nationally at 40% and the BXP at 5%, normally you'd assume a uniform distribution across the country and then work out the swings and how that impacts each constituency. However in this case, because polling numbers are national, you don't know what the Tory vote is in seats that BXP aren't standing in, is it 40%, 45% or something else entirely as you don't know which seats those people who were sampled are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) To be honest part of me wishes a clausewitz for Scotland in that the voters reject the SNP in favour of the Unionists and Scotland is burned to the fucking ground The nawbags might vote for Independence then if they havent fucked off to the greener fields of England first Edited November 11, 2019 by Ally Bongo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, King Of Paisley said: Latest Electoral Calculus predictions saying 11 Tories will be returned up here. 42 SNP. Just now i think they will land on 8, i may be way off, the borders seats, west aberdeenshire are certs, i think we will steal a few back, as long as the like of wishart get back in i will be happy, if the brexit party stand there he will be fine. Voter apathy will be key in this election and i see a lot of casual brexit voters who voted tory last time not turning out, how will the snp vote hold up? Flat line would be a good result. Lib dem seats will be interesting, as caithness and Sutherland had some areas very pro brexit(wick to be more specific) the brexit party may well muddle the waters up there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParisInAKilt Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 8 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: To be honest part of me wishes a clausewitz for Scotland in that the voters reject the SNP in favour of the Unionists and Scotland is burned to the fucking ground. Don’t think that would ever happen. The burning part anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 10 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Just now i think they will land on 8, i may be way off, the borders seats, west aberdeenshire are certs, i think we will steal a few back, as long as the like of wishart get back in i will be happy, if the brexit party stand there he will be fine. Voter apathy will be key in this election and i see a lot of casual brexit voters who voted tory last time not turning out, how will the snp vote hold up? Flat line would be a good result. Lib dem seats will be interesting, as caithness and Sutherland had some areas very pro brexit(wick to be more specific) the brexit party may well muddle the waters up there It's probably worth pointing out that in none of the seats the Tories won in Scotland in 2017 was there a UKIP candidate and in the handful of seats that had one in 2015 - peak UKIP - their votes were insignificant. Scotland has never shown the same appetite for Farage as in England and Wales. I doubt this will have any impact on the election in Scotland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 The Lib Dems have sacked the chairman of their own anti-racism campaign (he was also candidate for Thurrock) after it was found he had made frequent use of the n word online Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonny79 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 22 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: To be honest part of me wishes a clausewitz for Scotland in that the voters reject the SNP in favour of the Unionists and Scotland is burned to the fucking ground The nawbags might vote for Independence then if they havent fucked off to the greener fields of England first Bongo. The nawbags don't trust a Scotland in the EU. You want to leave that too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonny79 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 12 hours ago, aaid said: It's probably worth pointing out that in none of the seats the Tories won in Scotland in 2017 was there a UKIP candidate and in the handful of seats that had one in 2015 - peak UKIP - their votes were insignificant. Scotland has never shown the same appetite for Farage as in England and Wales. I doubt this will have any impact on the election in Scotland. Farage is a god but Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bonny79 said: Farage is a god but Did you get your deposit back off him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonny79 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, aaid said: Did you get your deposit back off him? Aye sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Right lets put this out there on a few hypothetical questions. 1.what would be a bad night for the snp? 2. how bad for sturgeon to step down? 3. Whats a good night for the SNP? 4. What sort of vote would give a mandate for a referendum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 54 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Right lets put this out there on a few hypothetical questions. 1.what would be a bad night for the snp? 2. how bad for sturgeon to step down? 3. Whats a good night for the SNP? 4. What sort of vote would give a mandate for a referendum? Replace SNP with Scotland because that's closer to the truth Scots will get what they vote for has never been more apt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Local canvassing here has the snp and tories neck and neck, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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