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General Election 2019


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1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Right lets put this out there on a few hypothetical questions.

1.what would be a bad night for the snp?

2. how bad for sturgeon to step down?

3. Whats a good night for the SNP?

4. What sort of vote would give a mandate for a referendum?

1. Losing seats. Down to 25 seats. 

2. Getting 25% of the vote. Would show Scotland doesn't want independence.

3. Over 40 seats and limiting the Unionist parties to single digit MPs.

4. Over 45 SNP MPs and/or 40% or more of the vote. 

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4 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Local canvassing here has the snp and tories neck and neck, 

Really will be who GOTV and who does it. Will those SNP switchers and abstainers of 2017 return or not.

The Brexit Party not standing is a blow to the SNP but at the same time we'll see if Scotland does want a second referendum after all.

Edited by weekevie04
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6 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

Really will be who GOTV and who does it. Will those SNP switchers and abstainers of 2017 return or not.

The Brexit Party not standing is a blow to the SNP but at the same time we'll see if Scotland does want a second referendum after all.

Reports from canvasing have some folk wanting brexit however don't trust the tories, these are the critical voters that will shape this campaign up here if they stay at home i can see us regain the seat however if the snp goes full on anti-brexit it will put the backs of these voters up

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16 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Reports from canvasing have some folk wanting brexit however don't trust the tories, these are the critical voters that will shape this campaign up here if they stay at home i can see us regain the seat however if the snp goes full on anti-brexit it will put the backs of these voters up

Correct.  We cant vote for the referendum ignoring snp.   

 

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9 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Right lets put this out there on a few hypothetical questions.

1.what would be a bad night for the snp?

2. how bad for sturgeon to step down?

3. Whats a good night for the SNP?

4. What sort of vote would give a mandate for a referendum?

1. Losing seats from 2017 election. 
2. Cant see anything bad enough happening at the moment to unseat her tbh. Plus , IMO there are currently no better alternatives in the party and I include Joanna Cherry . 

3. 40+ seats

4. An increase on the current seats. 

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Reports from canvasing have some folk wanting brexit however don't trust the tories, these are the critical voters that will shape this campaign up here if they stay at home i can see us regain the seat however if the snp goes full on anti-brexit it will put the backs of these voters up

I was at at Johnstone Town Hall last night, Nicola Sturgeon and Mhairi Black were doing an hour long talk and questions session. It is clear NS thinks very highly of MB and was there to support her at this election, she reinforced numerous times how important it was to get out and vote for her. 
She also reinforced numerous times how bad Brexit will be for the country so I think a full on anti Brexit message is likely.


I thought NS was excellent, she comes over as strong yet approachable. I know that view will not be shared by some on here but that is how I see her. 
The event was being filmed and the press were there. Sky news asked a question as did another person from the press association. I hope the session is available to watch online as I think she could win voters over. 

There seemed a lot more support for the EU from the audience than against it though admittedly  the audience was probably rammed with SNP supporters. Two questions came from people whose businesses were directly affected by Brexit.  One guy was English and said he now saw the SNP as the only way to go. He said this in a way that sounded like he had never contemplated this before. 

I think the SNP are trying to look strong on this issue as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. If ‘No ‘ had won Indy ref with such a margin it would be seen as a cast iron vote to stay in the union , I really cant see how the SNP can ignore this strong message about the EU and not capitalise on it. Other parties are being criticised for their indecision on the subject.   

I realise many people in your area feel different though and hope this clusterfuck does not detract from the focus of Scottish Independence. . 
 

 

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There's an obvious argument of whether it's legitimate or indeed a responsible course of action for the sitting FM to stand down because of poor results in a Westminster election and not see out the full term in the Scottish Parliament. 

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5 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Reports from canvasing have some folk wanting brexit however don't trust the tories, these are the critical voters that will shape this campaign up here if they stay at home i can see us regain the seat however if the snp goes full on anti-brexit it will put the backs of these voters up

Aye, absolutely. Those SNP Yes to Indy/Brexit voters may well be the key to this result.

I had a wee look at the odds - they are tightning. SNP were 1/3 on in Angus and now 8/15. Moray and Banff/Buchan (that's yours isn't it?) both SNP and Conservative are 5/6 on.

My only anecdotal evidence of 5 people who didn't vote in 2017 but will return to the SNP (although they are Dundee East and probably not an SNP issue) but most of these have been SNP all their lives, so hopefully the likes of B&B, Moray, Gordon, Aberdeen South etc will have similar stories. If we mind in 2017, the SNP had just announced plans to steam on with a second referendum - Brexit wasn't even a year old ; and much like 2015 was our chance to fight back after Indyref, this was theirs to say - no, we don't want!

A lot has happened since then and the Scottish Tories have shown to be the wet lettuce. All the bravado of them going to London and being a semi-independent group who might not back the Tories in key votes was all absolute shite considering they didn't do squat and backed the Tories every single time in key votes. Mundell of course being the slimiest of the slime.

It'll be interesting to see how the Brexit Party dropping out in the 317 Tory held seats will go, initially I was a bit pessimistic , but once the dust settles on that decision and the campaign/debates fully start it might actually help shape minds that the Brexit Party are just Tory lackies, and if you are a working class Leave voter - not all of them will vote Tory.

Interesting to see the next few polls and if there will be a Scottish only one.

 

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the key are the snp voters who didn't turn up in 2015.  000.,s of them.

it's never been properly worked out why that happened.  in my opinion 2015 had enthusiasm from 2014 lingering.  doesn't exist now.

if the SNP don't get more than 45 seats i don't think it will be seen as a strong enough mandate down south.  it should really be back to 2015 levels to break resistance.  a mere increase not enough.  can spin it but this is the time to send a very strong message.  kidding yourselves otherwise.

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3 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

the key are the snp voters who didn't turn up in 2015.  000.,s of them.

it's never been properly worked out why that happened.  in my opinion 2015 had enthusiasm from 2014 lingering.  doesn't exist now.

if the SNP don't get more than 45 seats i don't think it will be seen as a strong enough mandate down south.  it should really be back to 2015 levels to break resistance.  a mere increase not enough.  can spin it but this is the time to send a very strong message.  kidding yourselves otherwise.

I think it was a combination of a fairly lacklustre campaign from the SNP, complacency from the base thinking the SNP would walk it again and possibly a bit of voter fatigue. I also think a ink a lot of the Indy-Leave people just didn't vote, they couldn't bring themselves to vote for the SNP because of Brexit but couldn't bring themselves to vote for any of the Unionist parties because of Brexit, polling evidence tend to suggest that group is coming back slowly.

 I think you're right about the enthusiasm.  Somewhat counter-intuitively, the losing side -Yes- came out of the referendum super-motivated whereas the winning side seemed to just want to crawl into hole.  Come 2017 that had turned around.   In terms of votes, the SNP's support is probably somewhere between the 1.5 million they got in 2015 and the 1 million they got in 2017.  Of course in terms of number of seats, under FPTP, that depends on where those votes are.

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Do the folk who think that the SNP should be getting over 45 seats understand what that means? It's over 75 % of the seats. That would be the equivalent of the Tories getting almost 500 seats in the UK. That's about 80 more seats than the highest ever recorded by a single party.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Do the folk who think that the SNP should be getting over 45 seats understand what that means? It's over 75 % of the seats. That would be the equivalent of the Tories getting almost 500 seats in the UK. That's about 80 more seats than the highest ever recorded by a single party.

You would have a point had they not picked up 95% of the seats in 2015.  That's what FPTP in a country where you have support across the whole country and the oppositon is split can look like.  Not for a second am I suggesting a repeat of that. 

It's worth pointing out that in 1997, Blair won 418 seats off 43% of the vote.  In 1979, Thatcher won only 339 seats on 44% (there were 15 less seats in the HoC then).  While under FPTP, getting 100% of the votes will get you 100% of the seats and 0% of the votes will get you 0% of the seats, outwith that there can be huge variations in how the seats are allocated.

It's entirely possible - although unlikely - that more people could vote for the SNP than in 2017 but that they lose seats.   For example, an extra 5000 votes in Dundee East won't help if Stephen Geithens' majority of 2 in NE Fife is overturned. 

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Do the folk who think that the SNP should be getting over 45 seats understand what that means? It's over 75 % of the seats. That would be the equivalent of the Tories getting almost 500 seats in the UK. That's about 80 more seats than the highest ever recorded by a single party.

it's FPTP.  not expecting them to get 75% of the votes but to top vast majority of constituencies.  if they can't get over 40-45-50% of the vote now, and winning virtually all the seats like 2015, Scotland will never be independent.  

I doubt we ever will anyway as I don't think politics works the way we thought it did in 2014.  these types of radical changes don't just get waved through now on mandate.  roadblocks all being prepared now before any vote is called.  hopefully not.

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People wondering about the SNP turnout 2015 v 2017 v 2019. (Hope I have those years right.)

You can check my posts I was one of the folk on here in 2015 pushing the SNP vote a lot. Joined the party post 2014 (in disgust at 2014). By the time 2017 rolled around I was feeling a lot less energy. This time around if my personal political barometer is anything to go by I can see huge apathy in the SNP vote. Hope I am wrong because really this is time to make hay for the SNP. My guess is they just plateau where they are and BREXIt is going to be squandered. I let my membership expire a while ago now. Doing nothing for me at all other than the faintest of lights for independence...

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I certainly wasn't expecting such a great EU election night for the SNP. Polling was decent, but not spectacular and it was drummed throughout the UK media that ''Scotland isn't that different from rUK". I was half-expecting to be something like SNP 32% Tories 20% Brexit 15% Lib 15% Lab 15% or SNP 2/3 Tories 2 Brexit 1 seat wise. I couldn't see where all the SNP seats/votes would be coming from, and when the first few results came in e.g SNP 44% Falkirk, 40% Angus etc, I was very pleasantly surprised.

Purely anecdotal, but I know of five people who voted Yes then SNP in 15 and for whatever reason didn't vote SNP in 2017 - apathy ; cold feet even at a second referendum? Crappy SNP campaign? I've spoke to all five - 3 live in Dundee East and the other 2 in Angus - and all of them will be out and voting for the SNP. The Angus duo especially want to see Kirstene Hair out on her erse and feel a bit of shame that they 'let' her in by not voting. They also all voted in the EU election ; so I do hope that there is a lot more of these returning SNP voters who will vote four weeks tomorrow.

My only issue is the Brexit Party not standing in Tory seats (I have a feeling they may even pull out of other areas too ; and only stand 20-30 candidates throughout the whole of UK) but we'll find out tomorrow considering that's the deadline for candidates. And all those SNP/Tory dogfight seats are 2-2500 votes in it. If the BP did stand, the SNP would have almost certainly won 80% of these seats ; but I'm not sure now if they'll win a few back, most or any at all.

Need to sit tight over the next few days and week(s) see how the campaign, debates, and polling goes.

And fair dues to the Greens for standing down their candidates in Perth and North Tayside ; North East Fife and Angus. Every vote really will count in these constituencies.

NE Fife will be a tough ask, but it does seem that Gethins is highly thought of in the area and even in St Andrews (considering the non-Scottish student base) so you might even get some tactical voting for Gethins but then again you'll have a chunk of Tories getting behind the Lib Dem just to see ''The Nats lose''.

The Angus candidate is pretty impressive and when/if there any hustings, he will no doubt wipe the floor with Hair in a debate but again, it's all about getting the vote out - need the towns of Arbroath to really turn out and vote and the fermers to be too pissed off with the Tories to not vote.

P&NT - I was surprised that Wishart kept his seat the last time around, and it's going to be some fight again. I don't mind him, but I can imagine he may rile quite a few of the Murdo Frasers of Perth and Kinross and there's a fair few of them along with white settlers, so I was amazed he kept his seat in 17 considering the swing from SNP to Tory , also considering some very good constituency and good eggs like Mike Weir (very non-partisan, brilliant local MP) were sent packing.

 

Edited by weekevie04
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54 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

I certainly wasn't expecting such a great EU election night for the SNP. Polling was decent, but not spectacular and it was drummed throughout the UK media that ''Scotland isn't that different from rUK". I was half-expecting to be something like SNP 32% Tories 20% Brexit 15% Lib 15% Lab 15% or SNP 2/3 Tories 2 Brexit 1 seat wise. I couldn't see where all the SNP seats/votes would be coming from, and when the first few results came in e.g SNP 44% Falkirk, 40% Angus etc, I was very pleasantly surprised.

Purely anecdotal, but I know of five people who voted Yes then SNP in 15 and for whatever reason didn't vote SNP in 2017 - apathy ; cold feet even at a second referendum? Crappy SNP campaign? I've spoke to all five - 3 live in Dundee East and the other 2 in Angus - and all of them will be out and voting for the SNP. The Angus duo especially want to see Kirstene Hair out on her erse and feel a bit of shame that they 'let' her in by not voting. They also all voted in the EU election ; so I do hope that there is a lot more of these returning SNP voters who will vote four weeks tomorrow.

My only issue is the Brexit Party not standing in Tory seats (I have a feeling they may even pull out of other areas too ; and only stand 20-30 candidates throughout the whole of UK) but we'll find out tomorrow considering that's the deadline for candidates. And all those SNP/Tory dogfight seats are 2-2500 votes in it. If the BP did stand, the SNP would have almost certainly won 80% of these seats ; but I'm not sure now if they'll win a few back, most or any at all.

Need to sit tight over the next few days and week(s) see how the campaign, debates, and polling goes.

And fair dues to the Greens for standing down their candidates in Perth and North Tayside ; North East Fife and Angus. Every vote really will count in these constituencies.

NE Fife will be a tough ask, but it does seem that Gethins is highly thought of in the area and even in St Andrews (considering the non-Scottish student base) so you might even get some tactical voting for Gethins but then again you'll have a chunk of Tories getting behind the Lib Dem just to see ''The Nats lose''.

The Angus candidate is pretty impressive and when/if there any hustings, he will no doubt wipe the floor with Hair in a debate but again, it's all about getting the vote out - need the towns of Arbroath to really turn out and vote and the fermers to be too pissed off with the Tories to not vote.

P&NT - I was surprised that Wishart kept his seat the last time around, and it's going to be some fight again. I don't mind him, but I can imagine he may rile quite a few of the Murdo Frasers of Perth and Kinross and there's a fair few of them along with white settlers, so I was amazed he kept his seat in 17 considering the swing from SNP to Tory , also considering some very good constituency and good eggs like Mike Weir (very non-partisan, brilliant local MP) were sent packing.

 

The Greens didn't stand in NE Fife last time either, so that doesn't help Gethins. Tony Miklinski got over 10,000 votes last time round and they think they have a decent chance of winning that seat for the Tories. Then again Tory remainers might vote tactically for the LibDims. There were also 4000 Labour votes, some of which may go tactical as well? It's a very difficult one all round. 

I think SNP will probably lose the seat but I'm not totally convinced it will go to the LibDims.

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I don’t particularly like Corbyn, but what could he do in that situation? Engaging with that absolute bellend wouldn’t be worthwhile, and just give the media more rope to hang him with. 

Corbyn gets a terrible time from the media about the Jewish shite, yet we have a genuine racist wanker in the Tories who gets away with everything. 

British politics and the media are absolutely fucked up beyond belief. 

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21 minutes ago, kumnio said:

I don’t particularly like Corbyn, but what could he do in that situation? Engaging with that absolute bellend wouldn’t be worthwhile, and just give the media more rope to hang him with. 

Corbyn gets a terrible time from the media about the Jewish shite, yet we have a genuine racist wanker in the Tories who gets away with everything. 

British politics and the media are absolutely fucked up beyond belief. 

Agree it's a difficult situation in front of media but the last thing the public hears is - you're a terrorist sympathiser. Surely he must have an educated response to that by now. 

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