The Brexit Thread

[Ally Bongo]

40 minutes ago, wee-toon-red said:

They both campaigned on a Brexit platform though, so voters who voted for them surely must back brexit?

Neither campaigned on a no deal but both campaigned on "respecting" the referendum result

The Labour grass roots is very pro Remain

About 70% Labour voters and 40% of Tory voters voted remain

37 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Really?  Tories want Brexit, some want a No deal Brexit, others want a different Brexit but they want some type of Brexit.  The only fault line amongst MPs is whether they'd prefer no Brexit to a NO deal Brexit but they'd all prefer leaving the EU

See above

There are also umpteen pro EU remainers in the Tory Parliamentary party also - it wasnt just the ERG that scuppered Theresa May's shitty deal

Saying they will respect the referendum result does not make them desire Brexit or even want a soft Brexit

They are more concerned with keeping their seats and public perception in a lot of cases 

[exile]

1 hour ago, Lairdyfaeinverclyde said:

Given all the uncertainties and caveats (including the fact not all SNP voters will be anti Brexit), I think the main use of the chart is to remind everyone that a win for the Brexit party cannot be taken as a confirmation of a Leave majority. 

I thought it was a bit of a gamble for the SNP to be so pro-EU, but it seems to have worked or at least had no discernible adverse outcome.

What would be interesting to know is how many Leave-motivated customary SNP voters in fact did not vote for SNP this time, and how many of those voting SNP this time were not customary SNP voters but 'radicalised Remainers' lending their vote to the SNP to help signal a clear pro-Remain result. Because the question would then be how many would switch back, in the event of indyref.  

 

[Caledonian Craig]

I was thinking the same exile. 

I mean even on here we have anti-EU posters who (I think) support independence so they do exist on quite a scale.

Using this election as a pointer the only thing it does show us that sentiment was not very strong amongst voters to heed Ruth the Mooth's rallying call to vote Tory to speak out against another indyref.

[exile]

5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I was thinking the same exile. 

I mean even on here we have anti-EU posters who (I think) support independence so they do exist on quite a scale.

Using this election as a pointer the only thing it does show us that sentiment was not very strong amongst voters to heed Ruth the Mooth's rallying call to vote Tory to speak out against another indyref.

Yes, though I think enough people must have heeded Ruth's "Conservative and Unionist" rallying cry to keep their vote solid, while Labour's melted away. 

[Caledonian Craig]

8 minutes ago, exile said:

Yes, though I think enough people must have heeded Ruth's "Conservative and Unionist" rallying cry to keep their vote solid, while Labour's melted away. 

Well, of course, there are dyed-in-the-wool unionists who will vote Tory come what may but all in all their vote share still took a hit.

[Toepoke]

Can't wait to read Bonny80's pearls of wisdom...

 

[Bonny79]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Can't wait to read Bonny80's pearls of wisdom...

 

Not banned yet.  

 

 

[Grim Jim]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Not really - i think the point is that they cancel each other out

There are many in the Tory party that are remainers too

Who would they vote for?   I don't believe either that every Tory is a xenophobe, and a fair few must be pro-EU business-minded people.

If those voters 'lent' their vote to the Lib-Dems, than that party will be sucker-punched once again.   (I'm harking back to how they sold their soul for a shit version of proportional representation and got the devil's own tadger treatment.)

 

[ThistleWhistle]

Think that graph is a bit straw clutching but what was interesting, and not really seen it discussed, is 2014 UKIP and Conservatives had 51% of the votes (8.1m) and in 2019 Brexit, Conservative and UKIP had 44% (c7m). 

 

Given the motivation the Brexit party had to get folk out arguably their result isn’t that brilliant given the overall vote for a mad bastard Brexit seems to have reduced considerably comparing the last two results. 

[aaid]

15 hours ago, Grim Jim said:

Who would they vote for?   I don't believe either that every Tory is a xenophobe, and a fair few must be pro-EU business-minded people.

If those voters 'lent' their vote to the Lib-Dems, than that party will be sucker-punched once again.   (I'm harking back to how they sold their soul for a shit version of proportional representation and got the devil's own tadger treatment.)

 

I think for the Tories - and Labour to a lesser extent - the problem is how many people having voted Lib Dem for the Euro Elections revert back to Tory in a general election.  A lot of that will depend on what happens with Brexit and how far to the right the Tory party shifts as a result.  People might find that the Lib Dems are closer to them than the Tories.

 

[Ally Bongo]

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-delusionists/

Edited May 28, 2019 by Ally Bongo

[Bonny79]

1 hour ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Think that graph is a bit straw clutching but what was interesting, and not really seen it discussed, is 2014 UKIP and Conservatives had 51% of the votes (8.1m) and in 2019 Brexit, Conservative and UKIP had 44% (c7m). 

 

Given the motivation the Brexit party had to get folk out arguably their result isn’t that brilliant given the overall vote for a mad bastard Brexit seems to have reduced considerably comparing the last two results. 

Nothing mad about Brexit though.   People talking like it's some sort of disease, which it isn't. 

[mariokempes56]

10 minutes ago, Bonny79 said:

Nothing mad about Brexit though.   People talking like it's some sort of disease, which it isn't. 

Well why did my cock fall off ?

[Bonny79]

12 minutes ago, mariokempes56 said:

Well why did my cock fall off ?

Cause ya dipped Angela Merkel lol

[exile]

9 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-delusionists/

So that seems to be saying there's next to no chance of a remain outcome, and 93% chance of a no-deal Brexit?

[Ally Bongo]

8 minutes ago, exile said:

So that seems to be saying there's next to no chance of a remain outcome, and 93% chance of a no-deal Brexit?

Yep

I dont know how it gets through Parliament though without massive repercussions

A majority of MPs wont vote for it so i can only assume any new PM just lets the clock run down and says oops

[ErsatzThistle]

 

Turns out Neil Findlay was the one in charge of North British Labours Scottish campaign. 

And now he's resigned from the Labour front bench and will leave Holyrood in 2021, took a shot at some of his own "comrades" too. .

Couldn't happen to a bigger cunt  nicer guy.

[Bonny79]

Boris he cometh 

[stocky]

10 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Yep

I dont know how it gets through Parliament though without massive repercussions

A majority of MPs wont vote for it so i can only assume any new PM just lets the clock run down and says oops

Everybody is forgetting the EU in this.  the UK Parliament might keep saying no to this no to that.  

We are debating with ourselves and not even considering the EU.

i envisage the EU saying take it or leave it by a set date.   say October no deal is agreed, they get another extension till 31st Dec, take whats on the table or go with nothing,

 

Boris , etc will love this, cos it will turn into a us v them scenario ...plenty of time for UJ waving, billy brit etc, Boris doing his Churchill.bbc and  papers doing british spirit  etc etc  ........

[Bonny79]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

Everybody is forgetting the EU in this.  the UK Parliament might keep saying no to this no to that.  

We are debating with ourselves and not even considering the EU.

i envisage the EU saying take it or leave it by a set date.   say October no deal is agreed, they get another extension till 31st Dec, take whats on the table or go with nothing,

 

Boris , etc will love this, cos it will turn into a us v them scenario ...plenty of time for UJ waving, billy brit etc, Boris doing his Churchill.bbc and  papers doing british spirit  etc etc  ........

Good stuff. 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

Everybody is forgetting the EU in this.  the UK Parliament might keep saying no to this no to that.  

We are debating with ourselves and not even considering the EU.

i envisage the EU saying take it or leave it by a set date.   say October no deal is agreed, they get another extension till 31st Dec, take whats on the table or go with nothing,

 

Boris , etc will love this, cos it will turn into a us v them scenario ...plenty of time for UJ waving, billy brit etc, Boris doing his Churchill.bbc and  papers doing british spirit  etc etc  ........

I think there's some inevitable real-politik that'll come into play here.

First of all, it's correct that if nothing changes the UK will leave on 31st October without any deal.   The one clear thing is that parliament as currently constituted is against that by some distance.  Bercow has said today that he is staying on as Speaker until Brexit is resolved and that "parliament will have its say".   That means that Parliament will stop No Deal - or at least delay - in some way.

The problem for any Tory leadership candidate is that in order to stand a chance of being elected they need to at least sound as though they are prepared to take the UK out without a deal.

However, in that case - and this is something that Hunt and Hancock are pointing out - with an anti-no deal parliament, if the new PM tried to force that through, it would almost certainly be the last thing they did before facing a general election.   The current arithmetic in the HoC means it wouldn't take too many Tories to jump ship for a vote of no-confidence to pass.  

Who would win that is anyone's guess but since there seems to be a shift towards remaining in the country but also that no deal is a minority - albeit substantial - position, I wouldn't bank on it being the Tories.

I don't believe that any of the candidates for PM are such a true believer that they would go down this path, they are to a man - and woman - only interested in their personal ambitions.

However, the whole thing is very fluid and I've no real idea how it will turn out but I'm not convinced that No Deal is the certainty that some are suggesting.

[ParisInAKilt]

Think a deal will happen

[TDYER63]

Boris to face trial over allegations he lied to the public about Brexit.  

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/boris-johnson-to-face-court-over-alleged-eu-referendum-misconduct-11730747

 

[ParisInAKilt]

"Democracy demands responsible and honest leadership from those in public office," Mr Ball said previously.

haha best of luck 

[Ally Bongo]

John Cleese says London isn't an English City and is defiant when asked to clarify 

Is he right ?

Is he a racist ?

Is he both ?

Why would you say that if you were not racist (especially when you don't live there)

So many Brexit related questions 

I am starting to get a little worried now of what lies ahead seeing how many stupid cunts can be enthralled by Farage 

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Ally Bongo