Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[wellyman]

6 minutes ago, ShedTA said:

she asked the Scottish govt for the right to request another referendum if brexit is a disaster. that was granted. after that it was all the other parties who kept banging on about it. I mean what other policies did the tories actually campaign on? what else did you hear? nothing.

She gave them the matches and they lit the fire  ,appreciate NS did not know a GE was about to be put out there but if your a  Tory you would use the Indy/ref 2 at every possible moment, that in turn covered over the shit Tory policies  

[thplinth]

Have a look through the constituencies. I looked at them all from A thru G before getting bored but in just about everyone including the ones Labour won, the SNP held etc the biggest swing is to the tories, some of them are huge, and even in places you'd think they would get very little. This is a real change here and it needs to be understood. 

In Gordon it looks like the libdem vote completely collapsed and shifted to the tories. It is quite a strange looking result versus the others.

[thplinth]

Sturgeon was wrong to call for indyref2 because the polls did not support a YES. She got off lightly IMHO because if I had been May I would have granted her wish. It would have been another NO (a bigger one probably) and that would have been it. Game over.

But instead of that disaster we get this as our payback for the error which while bad is not nearly a knockout blow. For me this is the real start of NS leadership. She was handed a ridiculously strong position for reasons that had nothing to do with her really. Now we will find out if she is up to it. She has a bit of thinking to do. Where she goes from here is critical.

[Auld_Reekie]

17 minutes ago, ShedTA said:

she asked the Scottish govt for the right to request another referendum if brexit is a disaster. that was granted. after that it was all the other parties who kept banging on about it. I mean what other policies did the tories actually campaign on? what else did you hear? nothing.

There are several lessons here: do not talk about referendum's until public opinion is ripe. And while a referendum is on the table, it gives Unionists a free hand to talk incessantly about "another divisive independence referendum".

It's early and Im tired but IMO, you nullify that by taking it off the table and only putting it back on when public opinion is in our favour. That way, every time a Labour or Tory MP is interviewed from here on in, they'll have to talk about policy and more than ever we need to focus on what being in Britain really means. No more easy soundbites for Ruth Davidson, no more cheap headlines for the papers, no more dodging questions about the dysfunctional Labour Party. And most of all, start focusing on domestic success again. Target now must be to win the next Holyrood election and that's going to be mighty tough now. If really must, put referendum back on the table when the manifesto is launched. But not a word about it before then.

IMO, Scotland gave up any bargaining power on brexit last night. The Tories and Labour support it, and the Scottish electorate failed to choose a way out. That makes us committed now and any notion of steering another course requires a referendum and that's no longer an option. Brexit needs to be allowed to run it's course and in the meantime, the SNP get's back to basics.

[Toepoke]

32 minutes ago, Goozay said:

Scottish Tories voted for Davidson not May

 

Scottish Labour voted for Corbyn not Dugdale

 

Discuss...

 

Not much to discuss, it's absolutely true.

[Guest flumax]

20 minutes ago, adamntg said:

Most important question now - what is the DUP's position on Brexit and Irish border?

About 5am they were interviewed by dimbo. They said free movement north and south as is with free travel area. Then quizzed about polish builders going to roi as they rightly can, popping over the border and a quick flight to mainland.... Dup didn't really answer how he'd deal with that. 

[Auld_Reekie]

1 minute ago, thplinth said:

Sturgeon was wrong to call for indyref2 because the polls did not support a YES. She got off lightly IMHO because if I had been May I would have granted her wish. It would have been another NO (a bigger one probably) and that would have been it. Game over.

But instead of that disaster we get this as our payback for the error which while bad is not nearly a knockout blow. For me this is the real start of NS leadership. She was handed a ridiculously strong position for reasons that had nothing to do with her really. Now we will find out if she is up to it. She has a bit of thinking to do. Where she goes from here is critical.

Totally agree. She's been swept along in a momentum she couldnt really control - first the post-indyref surge and then an inevitable reaction to brexit. Last night was a much needed correction and like you said, it's better that it happened now and in an election, rather than later or in a referendum. She's also been far too timid for fear of a looming independence referendum - with that out of the way, she now needs to rejuvenate the party and the message. 

[thplinth]

The thing that is fhucked up here is the swing should have been to Labour and not the Tories. Corbyn was the one doing well and May having a shocker. That is how the swing went down south... To see this weird swing to the Tories in Scotland is counter intuitive and it is across the country. It is very odd.

And see if if had gone to Labour I suspect the SNP might have lost far more seats. In a way we are again lucky that it went to the tories.

Edited June 9, 2017 by thplinth

[Toepoke]

6 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

IMO, Scotland gave up any bargaining power on brexit last night. The Tories and Labour support it, and the Scottish electorate failed to choose a way out.

I'm not sure about that, even if the Scottish Labour & Tory MPs are 100% in favour of Brexit, it still leaves 39 out of 59 MPs opposed to it. That's at least 66% Remain. 

[min]

2 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The thing that is fhucked up here is the swing should have been to Labour and not the Tories. Corbyn was the one doing well and May having a shocker. That is how the swing went down south... To see this weird swing to the Tories in Scotland is counter intuitive and it is across the country. It is very odd.

For some reason, people really like Ruth Davidson. The SNP failed spectacularly in highlighting to voters that Ruth wasn't up for election and any Tory vote was a vote for that despicable creature May to be PM.

That, coupled with Labour looking like a lost cause in Scotland (before last night) pushed unionists towards Tory. For many, unionism is the highest priority.

[Govanhill Jacobite]

1 minute ago, min said:

For some reason, people really like Ruth Davidson. The SNP failed spectacularly in highlighting to voters that Ruth wasn't up for election and any Tory vote was a vote for that despicable creature May to be PM.

That, coupled with Labour looking like a lost cause in Scotland (before last night) pushed unionists towards Tory. For many, unionism is the highest priority.

I have always thought after the Yes Vote and couple of elections since the SNP are too nicey  nicey and we need to start to be jumping all over their lies and policies. I know sometimes hard as the press just ignore it but we need to be more aggressive if you know what I mean 

[Auld_Reekie]

3 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

I'm not sure about that, even if the Scottish Labour & Tory MPs are 100% in favour of Brexit, it still leaves 39 out of 59 MPs opposed to it. That's at least 66% Remain. 

With a referendum off the table, I'm really not sure what difference it makes. Scotland no longer has any leverage that would enable it to secure a differentiated deal. For the SNP MPs, it's going to be very hard for them to argue in any way without them or the opposition framing it in terms of another referendum, and the Tory/Labour MPs are hardly likely to champion anything that pull's Scotland from rUK. We might still have some influence but it will be part of a UK wide block rather than any specific Scottish deal. 

[hampden_loon2878]

52 minutes ago, wellyman said:

Once the Brexit letter was sent to Brussels NS informed the PM that she would be calling for another referendum, the PM said no and a few days later the PM calls for a GE !!!

NS timing was beyond bad as from then all the other parties and broadcasters would mention was Indy/ref 2 when discussing the SNP,  quite simply  NS shot herself in the foot big time.

 

Correct she meeds to hold her tongue now and again and let themake mistakes 

[Grim Jim]

Labour will no longer look like a lost cause, and will be the danger next time.

[Grim Jim]

If there has to be a next time...

[thplinth]

I would not fear another GE if one gets called soon to resolve this mess. (Although why would anyone think the results would be that much different?)

I think this is a bit like when the needle goes to one extreme on the meter and swings back to the other extreme before settling down to somewhere in the middle. The 56 was a massive aberration, a weird product of the NO, a ba$tard child with no where to go. I am glad it is over TBH.

So now the needle is swinging back and we are shaking off the people who were never really supporters. Next time around I suspect things might improve from here but you never know. What we are settling down to is our true position after the dust of the NO has also settled. And if that is 35 seats that is probably about fair. Maybe it is what it always should have been before the NO produced that freak result.

The SNP should stick to what it is there for - attaining independence - and be utterly unapologetic about it. Don't go on and on about it but when there is little appetite for it but it should crystal clear. And don't rely on re-joining the EU as the lever that achieves independence. The SNP need to wean themselves off that argument as it flawed and the electorate sense it.

Edited June 9, 2017 by thplinth

[Govanhill Jacobite]

From an Indy Point of view do we need to have a votefor  it in this term as cant see the SNP and the greens having enough to push a mandate through as we all know the Torys and Labour will knock it back, Worrying times I would say  

[Bristolhibby]

27 minutes ago, flumax said:

About 5am they were interviewed by dimbo. They said free movement north and south as is with free travel area. Then quizzed about polish builders going to roi as they rightly can, popping over the border and a quick flight to mainland.... Dup didn't really answer how he'd deal with that. 

Which is the crux of the debate. And IMHO points towards the natural answer.

We (the UK) stays in the single market and retains freedom of movement. Still leave the EU, and the Tories blame everything on the DUP. As they did with the Lib Dems in 2015. However while the DUP agree with a boarder less island of Ireland, they seem to a man Brexiteers.

However I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and hope they can blunt the Tory "Hard Brexit".

J

[min]

I don't think Brexit is that big an issue in Scotland - most people are apathetic.

Regardless, almost 600 of the 650 MP's are in favour of the Brexit process and 56% of Scots voted yesterday for parties that will vote it through.

It's happening, time to move on and focus on governing the country and Holyrood 2021. That election is massive for the SNP.

 

[scot scotland scottish]

1 hour ago, sbcmfc said:

Or Anybody but Nicola Sturgeon....

Ive commented before on what appears to be an irrational dislike of NS for no good reason other than (all she talks about is) independence and lego hair.

Yup - I think (tongue wedged fairly well in cheek) democracy is a bad thing. People who base their vote upon p!sh like that get the same vote as someone who studies through each party's manifesto with a fine tooth comb 

[Nobby]

19 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The thing that is fhucked up here is the swing should have been to Labour and not the Tories. Corbyn was the one doing well and May having a shocker. That is how the swing went down south... To see this weird swing to the Tories in Scotland is counter intuitive and it is across the country. It is very odd.

And see if if had gone to Labour I suspect the SNP might have lost far more seats. In a way we are again lucky that it went to the tories.

Im not all that surprised to be honest. Thatcher is dead, a lot of unionist people who didnt want a referendum and are right of centre politically looked at the options and voted Conservative. for the past 20/30 years the tories and labour have been two sides of the same coin. Now you have a a socialist labour and a right of centre Tory party so people can make a choice. Prior to this voting labour or tory really made feck all difference  and pissed off with thatcher and the tories scotland could vote labour in protest and the outcome was effectively the same.   I would also argue form what I have seen Ruth davidson did a good job campaigning. If she keeps it up. we could have a Scottish, female PM. How feckin odd would that be ! 

[Toepoke]

21 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

We might still have some influence but it will be part of a UK wide block rather than any specific Scottish deal. 

True, but a UK wide deal that keeps us all in the single market would please many in the SNP and Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon for one (it would give a justifiable reason to call off Indyref2 for a start).

Edited June 9, 2017 by Toepoke

[Chief]

With Scotland choosing further to the right and the rest of the UK going further left, I hope we get a referendum before we are dragged into a socialist state against our will. 

[thplinth]

She may be dead but May has been 'channeling' Thatcher every single day she has been PM so not sure that stacks up. 

[scot scotland scottish]

See at the game tomorrow, can someone in the North Stand get a "We vote Tory more than you!!" song going