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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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One of the worst things about the result for me is that as badly as the Tories did overall, Davidson has undoubtedly earned the right to crow. 13 Tory MPs in Scotland must be beyond her wildest dreams. Has she been milking it? I daren't look.

Isn't it a phuked up world when you can win 35 of 59 seats, your nearest rivals are on 13, you're still comfortably the 3rd biggest party in Westminster and yet the result is a catastrophe. And I'm not suggesting it isn't. It very much is. I've been too depressed to watch any interviews this morning. How has Nicola viewed the result? Has she accepted it was dog$h1te?

Edited by Marky
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37 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The thing that is fhucked up here is the swing should have been to Labour and not the Tories. Corbyn was the one doing well and May having a shocker. That is how the swing went down south... To see this weird swing to the Tories in Scotland is counter intuitive and it is across the country. It is very odd.

And see if if had gone to Labour I suspect the SNP might have lost far more seats. In a way we are again lucky that it went to the tories.

Agree, i cannot get my head round the swing to the Tories - Have people forgot about Thatcher and the Poll Tax !!!!  

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2 minutes ago, wellyman said:

Agree, i cannot get my head round the swing to the Tories - Have people forgot about Thatcher and the Poll Tax !!!!  

That was over a generation ago and I would also say that those who went Tory, in the north at least, and who were of adult age when Poll Tax occurred weren't impacted too much financially. It/she wouldn't have the impact on them that she did on, say, the central belt.

 

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Dont want it & will be taking a long earned break from Politics because in Scotland it's pishing against the wind - but i really cannot see there not being another General Election this year

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It feels as if we are now adrift in a British political bubble, with the EU a distant receding political entity, whose politicians will seem increasingly like outsiders not comrades, and a media always presenting them as them v us, and both main parties committed to one sort of Brexit or another, and with a few exceptions (George Osborne?) the press will paper over the harm and accentuate only the positives of Brexit and it will become increasingly difficult to know which path was better or worse...

so it seems much harder to see an indyref being won (or justified) based on brexit, but may need to wait till the consequences of Brexit align with other things...

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Still wondering why the polls didn't predict this result, was it the lateness of the corbyn surge? Disgruntled hard-to-reach Tories staying at home in England... anti snp tactical voting - but working in a way that could have happened in 2015 but didn't?

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3 minutes ago, exile said:

It feels as if we are now adrift in a British political bubble, with the EU a distant receding political entity, whose politicians will seem increasingly like outsiders not comrades, and a media always presenting them as them v us, and both main parties committed to one sort of Brexit or another, and with a few exceptions (George Osborne?) the press will paper over the harm and accentuate only the positives of Brexit and it will become increasingly difficult to know which path was better or worse...

so it seems much harder to see an indyref being won (or justified) based on brexit, but may need to wait till the consequences of Brexit align with other things...

Didn't we say during the Indy referendum that solidarity goes beyond political unions? My disdain for the EU is well documented on here, quicker that's complete then the Tories can be shown for what they are, a horrible party that has no interest in the vast majority of the UK. How bad things need to get for people to see that I'm not to sure though. 

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6 minutes ago, exile said:

Still wondering why the polls didn't predict this result, was it the lateness of the corbyn surge? Disgruntled hard-to-reach Tories staying at home in England... anti snp tactical voting - but working in a way that could have happened in 2015 but didn't?

They probably did get it about right in the end, for the UK as a whole at least...

850px-Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_s

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6 minutes ago, exile said:

Still wondering why the polls didn't predict this result, was it the lateness of the corbyn surge? Disgruntled hard-to-reach Tories staying at home in England... anti snp tactical voting - but working in a way that could have happened in 2015 but didn't?

May won more votes than Tony Blair ever did, so I think the Tories were far from disgruntled.... v  high percentage as well....

 

Corbyns late rise , especially in Scotland gave them more seats, 5 more in Scotland, it also allowed the Tories thru in 3-4 seats.  And Libs in 1 .

A lot of YES voting, new SNP, Previous Labour voters went back to Corbyn.   

 

I dont know what happened in England./wales...

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5 minutes ago, stocky said:

May won more votes than Tony Blair ever did, so I think the Tories were far from disgruntled.... v  high percentage as well....

 

 

Well i heard a disgruntled (ex) traditional Tory voter this morning on the radio, so I was thinking of a sample of one.

But my point was more that their decision not to vote (Tory) could have been hard to pick up.

Meanwhile, in terms of their vote going up, they probably gained voters from UKIP, Labour and LibDem (unionists) and SNP (Brexiteers) especially in Scotland, where they made such gains.

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Not in my experience. Opposition to SNP fell into following categories:

1. Pushing #indyref2 far too soon - soft Yes and soft No voters not even close to being ready for it all again.

2. Not focusing on "day job".

3. Aggressive/abusive supporters.

Point 1 was by far the most acute problem though for SNP in my experience.

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Lots to learn from a disappointing SNP campaign. Don't think you can put it down to one factor and just look at the results across the UK - tons of recounts and some surprising results. A mix of SNP apathy; soft SNP/no voters going elsewhere ; hardcore Unionists backing the best Union candidate ; Corbyn sooking up some of the young/socialist vote.

The SNP were lack-luster, I had a bad feeling but didn't want to say too much. Apathy, tons of recycled campaign leaflets almost in a sense that the party were taking the huge majorities for granted.

It's hugely disappointing that the SNP seem to have lost some excellent MPs - Mike Weir, Eilidh Whiteford, Eck, Angus Robertson, Calum McCaig. Although I'd hope they would be hoping to work behind the scenes and possibly the likes of the younger ones return to Holyrood. McCaig should be a future leader.

Anyone serious about pushing the Indyref2 chat needs to re-asses their life. It's an echo chamber at the moment, and we have to play a bit of a longer game. Brexit may change things; but for now it's most certainly off the table and I think Sturgeon was pretty much admitting this today earlier on.

As for May! She is absolutely deluded. This was her election! She went in to this with huge personal ratings, a mostly supportive press, British Brexit bulldog stiff upperlip soundbite bollocks and a 30% lead over the Tories! She ended up losing seats and beating the Labour party by 2%. She believes she can form a govt with support from the DUP - we'll see, but she is weak as we all know from the campaign and there are doubters in the Tory party e.g Soubry was talking about her considering position last night. If her government survives, she'll have to water-down lots of her policy and messages - the tails will be up with the more liberal/centrist Tories that are left and won't have to back every single issue.

I don't particularly want another election so soon. Some of those SNP majorities are wafer thin and you'd fear further losses again - so soon after this - but I think we'll end up at somepoint in the next year voting again in a General Election.

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31 minutes ago, exile said:

Still wondering why the polls didn't predict this result, was it the lateness of the corbyn surge? Disgruntled hard-to-reach Tories staying at home in England... anti snp tactical voting - but working in a way that could have happened in 2015 but didn't?

YouGov did. The difficulty in the polls (and the reason that there were such large differences between polling companies) was the model they used for Youth turnout. YouGov had a high turnout for 18-25 in their model and they were proved right. 

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3 hours ago, Toepoke said:

The DUP must be one of the most regressive parties out there. Horrified that they could have a major influence on UK government policies.

I wonder if the fact that they don't stand in the vast majority of the country, and therefore are not accountable to 96% [? number plucked out of thin air] of the electorate, will become an issue? It all points towards another GE earlier rather than later.

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Ok, so here's a question - who will stand again from the SNP candidates who lost and will they stand for Holyrood or Westminster? There's some talented people in the pool - Salmond, Robertson, Whiteford, Oswald. A few more big hitters in Holyrood wouldn't go amiss, but it might depend on how the 35 get on over the next couple of years.

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6 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

I wonder if the fact that they don't stand in the vast majority of the country, and therefore are not accountable to 96% [? number plucked out of thin air] of the electorate, will become an issue? It all points towards another GE earlier rather than later.

My guess is 14th or 21st of September

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32 minutes ago, biffer said:

Ok, so here's a question - who will stand again from the SNP candidates who lost and will they stand for Holyrood or Westminster? There's some talented people in the pool - Salmond, Robertson, Whiteford, Oswald. A few more big hitters in Holyrood wouldn't go amiss, but it might depend on how the 35 get on over the next couple of years.

Don't think will get that far, another election in 6 months time 

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1 hour ago, biffer said:

YouGov did. The difficulty in the polls (and the reason that there were such large differences between polling companies) was the model they used for Youth turnout. YouGov had a high turnout for 18-25 in their model and they were proved right. 

Agreed, one or two did, though some with so many options/alternative assumption on turnout etc, the picture could not be said to be definitely pointing to the result that came, amidst a dozen other alternatives including a May landslide.

Anyway, the follow-on point is that the extent of the Corbyn surge or SNP reversals was either not picked up or not addressed - or maybe there was little they could do - anyway there seemed to be little in the way of managing expectations, until presumably too late, so the 'victory' is once again greeted as a 'defeat'. 

 

Edited by exile
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A final thought. Part of the SNP glee of the 2015 was the idea of toppling the rotten old Labour establishment. Presumably part of the 2017 glee is the idea of toppling the 'one party state' - a perhaps undeserved or at least disproportionate dominance which is of course the fault of the FPTP system, which did not fairly represent the unionist party voters. So this (as others have said somewhere) is a kind of correction, though the SNP vote seems to have dipped quite a bit, and more seats could so easily have been lost.

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What do the DUP get out of a coalition with the Tories? 

Depending on what they ask for, or are offered, would the 7 Sinn Fein MPs consider changing their historic stance about not taking up their seats at Westminster? A majority of only 3 is going to be virtually unworkable for the Tories. 

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11 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

What do the DUP get out of a coalition with the Tories? 

Depending on what they ask for, or are offered, would the 7 Sinn Fein MPs consider changing their historic stance about not taking up their seats at Westminster? A majority of only 3 is going to be virtually unworkable for the Tories. 

Take your pick from;

Creationism being introduced to the education curriculim

No same sex marriage

Pro Life policies regards abortion

Reinstatement of death penalty

Sinn Fein would have to plead allegiance to the Queen - wont be happening

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