Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[hampden_loon2878]

Actually feel sick, i always thought the snp were fantastic strategists however how did they not see this coming i have no idea,,rightly or wrongly sturgeon has a personal problem, worse than salmon ever had,, independence has never felt so far away, i possibly feel worse now than i did September 19th 

[biffer]

Calling for another referendum on this timescale was a massive mistake and has cost the SNP at least ten seats.

[weekevie04]

Salmond - what a legend!

Even in defeat getting torn in to the Tories.

 

[adamntg]

6 minutes ago, flumax said:

Salmond gone 

Whit a parcel o' rogues....

[adamntg]

Let's add fisherman to old people and Rangers supporters.  Grrr 

[Ally Bongo]

https://wingsoverscotland.com/some-things-we-know/

As we write this at just gone 4am, there are 140 seats still to declare. But there are some things we can say already.

1. The SNP have won the election in Scotland. They currently have 32 seats with a handful still to declare, so they know that they’ll have more than the three Unionist parties put together. Their total, whatever it is, will be the second-highest in the party’s history, streets ahead of the previous second-best of 11.

2. Labour will be crowing about getting more seats than anyone expected – it’s looking like six – but in fact they’ve barely clung on to their 2015 vote share and most were won by tiny majorities of under 1000. Jeremy Corbyn has, however, largely won back the votes that Kezia Dugdale – who bitterly opposed his leadership – lost in the two years since then.

3. At this stage it seems inconceivable that Theresa May can stay on as Prime Minister. It appears certain that she’s lost her majority in an election where she was at one point expected to have one of more than 200 seats.

4. That situation will be exacerbated by the fact that the dozen or so MPs the Tories have collected in Scotland won’t be able to vote on many key issues – eg the NHS – due to EVEL. Ruth Davidson’s glee may be short-lived, because even with support from the Unionists in Northern Ireland (also subject to EVEL) the Tories will struggle to cobble any sort of workable majority together.

5. Jeremy Corbyn, however, has no chance of forming a government without SNP votes. So despite losing 20-odd seats, the SNP will likely find themselves in a more powerful position than they were before the election was called.

6. Corbyn has repeatedly stated that he won’t block a second independence referendum. Independence has now for some time been more popular than the SNP in polls, and if Corbyn does grant a Section 30 order in return for the SNP putting him into power – giving them control of the timing inside a four-year window – the game is very much on.

7. What happens with Brexit now is absolutely anyone’s guess.

8. A second general election this year is a very real possibility. Sob.

The next few days should be fun.

[weekevie04]

Again, Hampden_Loon - many, many people on here owe you an apology. Your concerns were very valid and sadly true!

The North East is absolutely embarrassing.

[ParisInAKilt]

22 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Actually feel sick, i always thought the snp were fantastic strategists however how did they not see this coming i have no idea,,rightly or wrongly sturgeon has a personal problem, worse than salmon ever had,, independence has never felt so far away, i possibly feel worse now than i did September 19th 

Behave yourself. 

[Guest flumax]

Loon. You were mocked. Said it before. Once again sorry for the disbelief. You called it 

[biffer]

24 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://wingsoverscotland.com/some-things-we-know/

As we write this at just gone 4am, there are 140 seats still to declare. But there are some things we can say already.

1. The SNP have won the election in Scotland. They currently have 32 seats with a handful still to declare, so they know that they’ll have more than the three Unionist parties put together. Their total, whatever it is, will be the second-highest in the party’s history, streets ahead of the previous second-best of 11.

2. Labour will be crowing about getting more seats than anyone expected – it’s looking like six – but in fact they’ve barely clung on to their 2015 vote share and most were won by tiny majorities of under 1000. Jeremy Corbyn has, however, largely won back the votes that Kezia Dugdale – who bitterly opposed his leadership – lost in the two years since then.

3. At this stage it seems inconceivable that Theresa May can stay on as Prime Minister. It appears certain that she’s lost her majority in an election where she was at one point expected to have one of more than 200 seats.

4. That situation will be exacerbated by the fact that the dozen or so MPs the Tories have collected in Scotland won’t be able to vote on many key issues – eg the NHS – due to EVEL. Ruth Davidson’s glee may be short-lived, because even with support from the Unionists in Northern Ireland (also subject to EVEL) the Tories will struggle to cobble any sort of workable majority together.

5. Jeremy Corbyn, however, has no chance of forming a government without SNP votes. So despite losing 20-odd seats, the SNP will likely find themselves in a more powerful position than they were before the election was called.

6. Corbyn has repeatedly stated that he won’t block a second independence referendum. Independence has now for some time been more popular than the SNP in polls, and if Corbyn does grant a Section 30 order in return for the SNP putting him into power – giving them control of the timing inside a four-year window – the game is very much on.

7. What happens with Brexit now is absolutely anyone’s guess.

8. A second general election this year is a very real possibility. Sob.

The next few days should be fun.

Point 4 is wrong. On England only legislation they lose 10 or so MPs yes, but the opposition loses 40 odd, so they won't have a problem.

[exile]

So the SNp are currently on 34, as per exit poll. Can anyone remember did any pollsters get that right - why were so many predicting 40s? Did the polls misunderestimate unionist tactical voting?

Any idea of overall vote share in Scotland? More important in the long term than actual number of seats

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by exile

[phart]

Just now, exile said:

So the SNp are on 34, as per exit poll. Can anyone remember did any pollsters get that right - why were so many predicting 40s?

Any idea of overall vote share in Scotland? More important in the long term than actual number of seats

 

Party	%
SNP Scottish National Party	37.3
CON Conservative	28.2
LAB Labour	27.8
LD Liberal Democrat	6.1

  as it stands atm.

[exile]

1 minute ago, phart said:

Party	%
SNP Scottish National Party	37.3
CON Conservative	28.2
LAB Labour	27.8
LD Liberal Democrat	6.1

  as it stands atm.

OK, so a hefty unionist majority, if everyone was voting on constitutional lines

[adamntg]

3 minutes ago, exile said:

OK, so a hefty unionist majority, if everyone was voting on constitutional lines

I'm sure Jezza had a big effect on some dafties.  FFS, I even thought about voting for the fecker.   

Fife NE though - one vote.  As a son of Fife NE, please, keep the faith. 

[exile]

23 minutes ago, exile said:

OK, so a hefty unionist majority, if everyone was voting on constitutional lines

But also to bear in mind 16-17yr olds and EU citizens, so not exactly comparable to indyref1

[wembley67lisbon]

Take a look at the map. Aberdeen ffs. Hope none make their way down on Saturday.

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, biffer said:

Calling for another referendum on this timescale was a massive mistake and has cost the SNP at least ten seats.

To be fair to Sturgeon nobody was expecting a General Election within weeks of the announcement 

[Hertsscot]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Actually feel sick, i always thought the snp were fantastic strategists however how did they not see this coming i have no idea,,rightly or wrongly sturgeon has a personal problem, worse than salmon ever had,, independence has never felt so far away, i possibly feel worse now than i did September 19th 

It's an interesting one that.  Down in Englandshire most people obviously bar Tories and UKIP think she's an absolute star.

[Parklife]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Actually feel sick, i always thought the snp were fantastic strategists however how did they not see this coming i have no idea,,rightly or wrongly sturgeon has a personal problem, worse than salmon ever had,, independence has never felt so far away, i possibly feel worse now than i did September 19th 

Credit to you. You read the mood in Scotland better than most. 

A very poor campaign by the SNP, where they stood for very little and allowed the stories and media to tell the public what voting SNP was voting for. 

14 minutes ago, wembley67lisbon said:

Take a look at the map. Aberdeen ffs. Hope none make their way down on Saturday.

Yup. The most selfish region in Scotland by an absolute mile and they're showing it again. 

For the UK, this is a wonderful night. A rejection of the Tories and May, despite total press support. A victory for social justice and a victory for a new way of campaigning. Social media work has been massive for Corbyn and Labour. 

Well done Jeremy. Feck Kezia and feck all those on the TAMB who claim to be socialists but give you stick based solely on constitutional lines. 

[Toepoke]

SNP finally hold NE Fife

[Parklife]

Just now, Toepoke said:

SNP finally hold NE Fife

By 2 votes. 

[Auld_Reekie]

Aye. Fair play to hampden loon who I gave stick to the other day. Knew it was going to be bad but didn't quite believe it would be this bad. Sair wan. 

Independence some way off based on this and anecdotal evidence over last week or so. Back to the long game. Lots of seats in danger in 2022 if parliament lasts that long. SNP must get on top of domestic issues.

[Parklife]

8 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Aye. Fair play to hampden loon who I gave stick to the other day. Knew it was going to be bad but didn't quite believe it would be this bad. Sair wan. 

Independence some way off based on this and anecdotal evidence over last week or so. Back to the long game. Lots of seats in danger in 2022 if parliament lasts that long. SNP must get on top of domestic issues.

Plenty independence supporters will have voted Labour. I know that I thought about doing this. This will no doubt be spun as a massive blow to independence blah blah blah. However, I think that is actually greatly exaggerated. This election wasn't about Independence, however the SNP failed to make that clear enough and get their message out. 

Edited June 9, 2017 by Parklife

[min]

2 minutes ago, Parklife said:

Plenty independence supporters will have voted Labour. I know that I thought about doing this. This will no doubt be spun as a massive blow to independence blah blah blah. However, I think that is actually greatly exaggerated. This election wasn't about Independence, however the SNP failed to make that clear enough and get their message out. 

I agree to an extent, but 63% in Scotland have voted for unionist parties - I don't think that that can all be explained by independence supporters voting Labour.

I fear support for independence has dipped below 40%. I've certainly seen plenty anecdotal evidence through the views of friends and family.

One thing that the SNP have totally miscalculated is Brexit. In the scheme of things, it's way down the list of priorities to the Scottish electorate.

 

[Guest BlueGaz]

42 minutes ago, Parklife said:

By 2 votes. 

Shows how important spoilt papers can be. Other results closer than the amount of spoilts too.