ShedTA Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Just seen a tweet of a new Guardian/ICM poll prediciting 55 seats for the SNP. WTF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 One can only hope that on the day of the vote the Scottish electorate will realise that another 5 years of Tory government is more pressing than petty nationalism. You're getting desperate noo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bino's Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 http://www.cityam.com/213576/labour-party-confused-over-austerity-chuka-umunna-clashes-jim-murphy-nicola-sturgeon-soars branch office in full swing still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 One can only hope that on the day of the vote the Scottish electorate will realise that another 5 years of Tory government is more pressing than petty nationalism. #prayforKaty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wwta2007.com Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 John Curtice www.whatscotlandthinks.org 27/12/14 "....81% of those who voted YES go on to say they will vote SNP in May, compared with 9% of No voters". (1.6M YES @ 81% = 1.3 M + (2M NO @9%) 0.2 M = 1.35M SNP) 3/2/15 ".... 84% of those who voted YES go on to say they will vote SNP in May, compared with 9% of No voters". comRes ITV 31/3/15: "....in this poll 81% of those who voted YES will vote SNP in May, compared with 8% of No voters" Curtice 5/4/15 "......85% YES will vote SNP with 9% of No voters" (1.6M YES @ 85% = 1.36M + 0.2M NO's = 1.56 MILLION SNP). Please note, for comparison, Brit Labour polled 1.28 million (46%) in 1997 in Scotland. Their best Jockoland result in 11 GE's since 1970. So, if 1.5M of us vote SNP what will the % be and how many seats will we win ? Depends on the turnout. WE MUST ENSURE MAXIMUM SNP TURNOUT. NO COMPLACENCY !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flora MaDonald Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 http://www.cityam.com/213576/labour-party-confused-over-austerity-chuka-umunna-clashes-jim-murphy-nicola-sturgeon-soars branch office in full swing still Am I reading this correctly? He's said the same thing again today aftering hearing Milliband's speech? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flora MaDonald Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Claire Stewart @ STV on Tweeter saying that Skelator has declined an invite to discuss today's events on Scotland Tonight Shown up to be the coward he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Chuka putting a hole in Slabours election strategy ship under the waterline. Very clear how Chuka views his Scottish colleagues. That boys grandad was in Mi5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Jim Murphy lying his tits off is merely a presentational issue according to Brian Taylor & BBC Scotland ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adonisfaelivi Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Claire Stewart @ STV on Tweeter saying that Skelator has declined an invite to discuss today's events on Scotland Tonight Shown up to be the coward he is. So the Egg man turns Chicken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Just seen a tweet of a new Guardian/ICM poll prediciting 55 seats for the SNP. WTF? And they have 52% for SNP vote share. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-lead-over-labour-in-scotland-poll-shows But looking more closely it's 52% who are 'decided' Tom Costley, the head of TNS Scotland: "29% of those who say they are certain to vote have not made up their minds who to vote for.” Remember these 29% are people who are certain to vote. There must be others who are not yet certain to vote, but who will. That could easily be over a third of the electorate supposedly undecided and could break any way. They may be the silent majority, they may be "shy tories"... who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wine bibber Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 One can only hope that on the day of the vote the Scottish electorate will realise that another 5 years of Tory government is more pressing than petty nationalism. If the polls are to be believed the Scottish electorate have already realised that another 5 years of Red or Blue Tory government is more pressing.That's why they are looking to vote in overwhelming numbers for a party who stands for the all the people of Scotland.The destruction of the Red Tories in Scotland and the Blue Tories in England nicely hamstrung is a hope we all share. I agree with you who wants petty nationalism when you can have the serious nationalism that all our comrades, in all the countries of the world have aspired too.Faith and hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bino's Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Jim Murphy lying his tits off is merely a presentational issue according to Brian Taylor & BBC Scotland ... read Brian Taylors blog the week of memogate, he never mentioned it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bino's Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 And they have 52% for SNP vote share. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-lead-over-labour-in-scotland-poll-shows But looking more closely it's 52% who are 'decided' Tom Costley, the head of TNS Scotland: "29% of those who say they are certain to vote have not made up their minds who to vote for.” Remember these 29% are people who are certain to vote. There must be others who are not yet certain to vote, but who will. That could easily be over a third of the electorate supposedly undecided and could break any way. They may be the silent majority, they may be "shy tories"... who knows? some of the polls are too good to be true something like the above is probably in play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 And they have 52% for SNP vote share. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/snp-has-almost-doubled-lead-over-labour-in-scotland-poll-shows But looking more closely it's 52% who are 'decided' So, does that leave the possibility that SNP might claim more than 52% of the total vote? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Even if the SNP were polling 70% I would still feel a little flat. Scottish people are assbackward. First they vote No and then they want to vote for the SNP in overwhelming numbers (if you believe all this poll pish and wind which I won't until morbidly obese lady has sung). Ball-less nation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Even if the SNP were polling 70% I would still feel a little flat. Scottish people are assbackward. First they vote No and then they want to vote for the SNP in overwhelming numbers (if you believe all this poll pish and wind which I won't until morbidly obese lady has sung). Ball-less nation. Will take SNP getting full fiscal authority as first step. Next time around, indy wont seem such a big leap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Even if the SNP were polling 70% I would still feel a little flat. Scottish people are assbackward. First they vote No and then they want to vote for the SNP in overwhelming numbers (if you believe all this poll pish and wind which I won't until morbidly obese lady has sung). Ball-less nation. Aye too many voted in a traditional manner in the referendum. Can see it all happening again despite all this current hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Aye too many voted in a traditional manner in the referendum. Can see it all happening again despite all this current hope. Yep. I just dont accept that so many people have decided to put aside everything they didnt like about the SNP and suddenly decided they were deserving of their vote. Also, while I see some anecdotal evidence on Twitter, etc that people who voted No have had a change of heart I dont actually see much of it in my circles. Granted, most people have gone back to not talking politics. People who were determined No voters either hated thought of independence or hated SNP. I don't see how that changes over space of a few months. The fact that all pollsters are effectively reporting same thing, and have been for some time, f***s me up though. I genuinely don't know what's going to happen in May. 50+ seats is greater than anything New Labour managed in their march to power and Scotland was as pro-Labour as it was possible to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Aye too many voted in a traditional manner in the referendum. Can see it all happening again despite all this current hope. It's a general election. Let's look at this way....the Tory vote will remain fairly consistent I'd imagine, around 15%. The LibDem vote will collapse completely.....so where will their vote go ? The SNP vote is guaranteed to hugely increase, with most of the increase coming from traditional Labour voters plus disillusioned LibDems. The big question is, how much will the Labour vote collapse ? I don't think there are many hidden surprises here, although I do understand the caution many people are stating. The SNP will gain seats and almost certainly become the biggest party in Scotland...of that I have little doubt. How many will they win though ? My completely random guess is between 30-35, Certainly enough to lay the foundations for Home Rule. Bring it on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 It's a general election. Let's look at this way....the Tory vote will remain fairly consistent I'd imagine, around 15%. The LibDem vote will collapse completely.....so where will their vote go ? The SNP vote is guaranteed to hugely increase, with most of the increase coming from traditional Labour voters plus disillusioned LibDems. The big question is, how much will the Labour vote collapse ? I don't think there are many hidden surprises here, although I do understand the caution many people are stating. The SNP will gain seats and almost certainly become the biggest party in Scotland...of that I have little doubt. How many will they win though ? My completely random guess is between 30-35, Certainly enough to lay the foundations for Home Rule. Bring it on. I hope so Rossy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Will take SNP getting full fiscal authority as first step. Next time around, indy wont seem such a big leap. Yep sounds good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunchy Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I wonder if a lot of the soft no voters are going to SNP because of the things that have happened after the ref such as the watered down vow, the unionist rioters in George square etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The next building block after being the biggest Scottish party at Westminster is a strong showing in the Scottish elections next year. It's only the Scottish Government that can ask FFA for Holyrood. That means we need an SNP government, backed up by a powerful Westminster representation. If we get both of these, I'd imagine that Home Rule is inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 I'm slightly worried that people won't see the need for independence if we get FFA - this is my only concern with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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