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I understand people's concerns and it is right not to be complacent. But this is not a 2-question referendum. In a referendum, 49% is the losing side. Whereas in a FPTP election with several main parties, 40% sweeps the board.


Many things could scupper the apparent SNP advance, such as differential turnout, fiddling postal votes, or the appearance of basic competency from Labour, but the only effective thing I could see happening is co-ordinated, widespread unionist tactical voting. As Alex Massie commented, good luck on organising that one.


Consider this too. In previous Westminster elections, the SNP have been invisible. In this election, the media and unionist parties have made it pretty clear by their panicking that the SNP matter. BBC Scotland have even started to give Labour candidates a grilling and they are coming out of it badly. So who would you vote for - a party you've lost faith in, or one that is going to stand up for Scottish interests and give the whole establishment a kick in the pants whilst stopping short of another indy ref?

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Can anyone explain to me what the hell this is, from today's Guardian (Steve Bell, again):

163A4546-F17E-4F87-9280-4500B5D5E597_zps

Now, I like a joke as much as the next man, and like to think I'm not quick to jump aboard the 'offence bandwagon', but WTF is this about? Incest?!

Am I missing something here? Is there an in-joke I'm not getting?

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Not only him. There's an editor somewhere that okayed that.

I know. I wonder how much power Bell wields at the Guardian. I was thinking about the editorial responsibility when I posted and wondered if the 18th century stuff (which could be as extreme as Bell's stuff) was an influence in the Guardian's typical woolly liberal approach to moral relativity. Regardless, it should've been spiked.

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Is incest (even jokingly) a known stereotype of Scots?! Has it ever been?

Genuinely never heard of it?

Tight, miserable, alcoholic, ginger - I've heard all those. But incest?!

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It's been suggested it's a play on a quote from Thomas Beecham.

Try everything once except incest and folk dancing.

Edit: Not that it makes it any better IMO

I still don't get it

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Like Ex-Whitfield says, there's a saying about trying everything once, except incest and morris dancing. He's maybe trying to make it relevant to Scotland by switching morris dancing for Scottish country dancing.

It's fecking pathetic though - if the joke isn't obvious after a few seconds the cartoon has failed. Even knowing ( I think) what he's trying to convey, it isn't funny.

Edited by neilser
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With the usual caveat that I haven't a clue what's going on, my feeling would be that aaid and Goozay are right.

A YES vote in the referendum was a vote for independence; a vote for the SNP in May is not. There are any number of reasons why a referendum-NO voter might vote for the SNP in the GE.

They may simply have changed their minds - looked around at the political landscape since indie-ref and regretted not taking the plunge.

They may think a large SNP bloc in Westminster will hold the unionist parties to 'the Vow'.

They may think that the SNP are the least bad alternative given that the unionist parties have hardly covered themselves in glory since October.

They may want to stick one up the English cos they can - and causing the predicted hung-parliament chaos would be an amusing way of doing it.

Turnout's bound to be lower than in the referendum, and I'd've thought that too would favour an SNP vote. The polls feel pretty much spot on to me at the moment.

I agree with this, particularly with the polls at the moment. I think Labour will bounce back between now and the election itself and it won't be as bad for them as it currently looks. They'll have to come up with somthing a bit better than "Vote for us or you'll get the Tories" however. Erm - we voted Labour last time around and we got the Tories Ed - fool me once..

I still think the SNP will do very well come May. Then it will start to get interesting if Labour and the Tories don't get an overall majority as expected.

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I generally don't agree with much if anything that David Torrance says but there is one line in his column in today's Herald that is worth sharing - even though the rest of the article is his usual mince.

First, ruling anything out when several polls show Labour and the Conservatives at level pegging in terms of seats would be bad politics, while second, "ruling out" any arrangement with the SNP wouldn't make the blindest bit of difference: all the evidence suggests the Scottish voters Labour needs to lure back simply aren't listening.

Which is kind of the point about where Labour will get the support from if they are to claw anything back from the SNP. Of course the nature of FPTP means they don't have to claw back a huge amount in order to lessen the damage but even that looks challenging right now.

Goozay is right that if they are going to do it they need to come up with a better argument than the current mantra about Vote SNP get Tories. I can't see where that's coming from especially as the MSM are starting to call out their duplicity as regards the NHS.

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That Guardian cartoon is appalling.

I really do absolute despise a massive number of people in the UK. They won the referendum FFS, imagine how bitter they would be if they lost.

Better together my arse.

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Right someone with photoshop skills copy that prikk Bell's sig onto them Mohammed cartoons and email them to ISIS.

:)

Of course, that's another factor relevant to Flure's point about the responsibility of the editor. I can imagine the reaction if the editor of a 'liberal' newspaper told his lead political cartoonist that he wouldn't publish an offensive cartoon - "You ing what? We died for the right to be utter twats!"

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