Ukraine

[Squirrelhumper]

No point worrying about it, fuck all we can do about it. 

 

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Starts to take them back? They already are/have. Russia has 'annexed' territory it doesn't control.

Must have been a big postal vote in the referendums in those areas then. 

[mccaughey85]

Perhaps a football match between ukraine and russia could decide which country gets the annexed areas.

[Malcolm]

7 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

Perhaps a football match between ukraine and russia could decide which country gets the annexed areas.

Only if Russia loses they give up some of their original territory to Ukraine. Seems fair

[thplinth]

1 hour ago, Malcolm said:

yeah, might need a few to wipe out the Uk

Read what I said.

If just one of those things got through... the UK as you know it would be gone forever.

The sarmat he was referring to is the RS-28 ICBM or 'Satan II' as NATO calls it. 15 light or 10 heavy multiple re-entry vehicles each carrying a nuclear weapon of unknown (|at least by us) potential capacity. The latest version of the R-36 (i.e. Satan I) intercontinental ballistic missile could hit anywhere in the U.S. with at least 10 18-25 megaton nuclear warheads. List the ten biggest UK cities and then imagine them all nuked by one 25 MT warhead. What would be left.

People thinking Scotland might be left alone... wow. Faslane is something like 25 miles as the crow flies from Glasgow City Centre. Now you can see the utter disregard they had building a nuclear submarine base right next to Scotland's biggest by far population centre.

But of course far more than one sarmat would get through if things went mad. First they would hit everything of a military significance and it would be a matter of time before it is escalated to population centres. 

They probably could nuclear carpet bomb the UK if they really wanted to but what is the point of that, total overkill.

And satan II was just one of the six new weapons they introduced in 2018. They have many ways to hit us many using hypersonic missiles that the west cant get near stopping.

Given the uk's role in all of this I would guess the uk is a main target. For revenge if nothing else.

The massive 220-ton weapon will replace the Cold War-era RS-36M Voyevoda missiles. The RS-28 Sarmat will reportedly carry a nuclear payload large enough to wipe out an area the size of Texas or France.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-satan-2-nuclear-missile-rs-28-sarmat-ready-fire-2020-1447994

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

Edited October 6, 2022 by thplinth

[mccaughey85]

2 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Only if Russia loses they give up some of their original territory to Ukraine. Seems fair

Yeh true. Maybe all international  disputes should be settled by sports. Scottish indy could be settled by a match between us and england. 

[mccaughey85]

6 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Read what I said.

If just one of those things got through... the UK as you know it would be gone forever.

The sarmat he was referring to is the RS-28 ICBM or 'Satan II' as NATO calls it. 15 light or 10 heavy multiple re-entry vehicles each carrying a nuclear weapon of unknown (|at least by us) potential capacity. The latest version of the R-36 (i.e. Satan I) intercontinental ballistic missile could hit anywhere in the U.S. with at least 10 18-25 megaton nuclear warheads. List the ten biggest UK cities and then imagine them all nuked by one 25 MT warhead. 

People thinking Scotland might be left alone... wow. Faslane is something like 25 miles as the crow flies from Glasgow City Centre. Now you can see the utter disregard they had building a nuclear submarine base right next to Scotland's biggest by far population centre.

But of course far more than one sarmat would get through if things went mad. First they would hit everything of a military significance and it would be a matter of time before it is escalated to population centres. 

They probably could nuclear carpet bomb the UK if they really wanted to but what is the point of that, total overkill.

And satan II was just one of the six new weapons they introduced in 2018. They have many ways to hit us many using hypersonic missiles that the west cant get near stopping.

Given the uk's role in all of this I would guess the uk is a main target. For revenge if nothing else.

Lets just hope putin doesnt want to denazify us like he has to ukraine.

[Ally Bongo]

7 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

Yeh true. Maybe all international  disputes should be settled by sports. Scottish indy could be settled by a match between us and england. 

The SFA is a bigger Unionist cabal than the Tory party

They would incentivise some of the players to throw it and wouldn't need to with most of the anglos 

[thplinth]

2 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

Lets just hope putin doesnt want to denazify us like he has to ukraine.

It is just a pity he can't de-moronify you chripper. Unfortunately you are a thick for life.

You do realize demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine are the two explicitly stated goals of the Russian invasion? You are so fucking dense you seem to think that is something i made up. 

[Malcolm]

if it escalates we are all toast including Russia.  Game of brinkmanship coming up….   Will Russia fire the first tactical nuke, how will the West respond.

[mccaughey85]

5 minutes ago, thplinth said:

It is just a pity he can't de-moronify you chripper. Unfortunately you are a thick for life.

You do realize demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine are the two explicitly stated goals of the Russian invasion? You are so fucking dense you seem to think that is something i made up. 

Lighten up. If One of these sarmats hits us then we will never get to annoy each other on message boards ever again. 

Just our luck that the world looks like ending just as we start making progress in football again.

[thplinth]

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

This is just a rough guide but type in glasgow as the destination, 25000 as the bomb size, and airburst. That is just one 25MT bomb. 

[Ally Bongo]

How do you denazify a country where the actual far right nazi type party got 2.5% of the electoral vote ?

“Neo-Nazi, far right and xenophobic groups do exist in Ukraine, like in pretty much any other country, including Russia,” Finkel said. “They are vocal and can be prone to violence but they are numerically small, marginal and their political influence at the state level is non-existent. That is not to say that Ukraine doesn’t have a far-right problem. It does. But I would consider the KKK in the US and skinheads and neo-Nazi groups in Russia a much bigger problem and threat than the Ukrainian far right.”

[thplinth]

43 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

if it escalates we are all toast including Russia. 

Undoubtedly the end of civilization as we know it in the west.

The Russians don't follow the MAD doctrine, mutually assured destruction, they plan to survive and win any nuclear war and are relatively far better prepared than us for one should it happen. They also have near unlimited natural resources and a vast territory over which to disperse.

Dont get me wrong they know it would be horrific and will use it as a last resort but they will use it if their backs are against the wall (but actually they won't wait for it to get that bad would be my bet). It could be we are far closer than we realize to another large step-up. They have clearly stated this is an existential conflict for them.

[mccaughey85]

3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Undoubtedly the end of civilization as we know it in the west.

The Russians don't follow the MAD doctrine, mutually assured destruction, they plan to survive and win any nuclear war and are relatively far better prepared than us for one should it happen. They also have near unlimited natural resources and a vast territory over which to disperse.

Dont get me wrong they know it would be horrific and will use it as a last resort but they will use it if their backs are against the wall (but actually they won't wait for it to get that bad would be my bet). It could be we are far closer than we realize to another large step-up. They have clearly stated this is an existential conflict for them.

Going to be hard for normal russians to survive all out nuclear war. Usa and russia fire loads of nukes at each other then both countries wont have much of a population left. 

Maybe putins built huge bunkers for his ppl but that would be hard to do considering the size of the russian population.

Perhaps he accepts that only a small amount of russians will survive. 

[Malcolm]

1 hour ago, thplinth said:

Undoubtedly the end of civilization as we know it in the west.

The Russians don't follow the MAD doctrine, mutually assured destruction, they plan to survive and win any nuclear war and are relatively far better prepared than us for one should it happen. They also have near unlimited natural resources and a vast territory over which to disperse.

Dont get me wrong they know it would be horrific and will use it as a last resort but they will use it if their backs are against the wall (but actually they won't wait for it to get that bad would be my bet). It could be we are far closer than we realize to another large step-up. They have clearly stated this is an existential conflict for them.

it comes down to this.  

Is he mad enough to do it?  Possibly… he is old, would probably survive himself in a nuclear bunker.  Would have a strange final few years on earth.

will his people allow him to do it?  When push comes to shove…. Who will actually turn the keys knowing they start the end of civilisation.

I don’t think we would go from zero to obliteration… more likely he will try his luck with a tiny nuke on the Ukraine border.  It’s then all about how this is handled.

 

[aaid]

46 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

 

I don’t think we would go from zero to obliteration… more likely he will try his luck with a tiny nuke on the Ukraine border.  It’s then all about how this is handled.

 

If they did that, then based on how they’ve been prosecuting this war so far, they’d do it when there was a 50mph westerly wind blowing. 

[sjd1972]

It’s a shame that much of the planet could face obliteration all because of one man’s ego and his inability to admit he made a mistake and back down.

Anyone who thinks there will be any ‘winner’ following a strategic nuclear exchange is at best on the wind up and at worst dangerously deluded.

[thplinth]

I can’t really help you answer your question Malcolm as it is clear your head is full of propaganda mince. You think the president of Russia is mad and that explains what is going on. 😃 wow. This is really stupid and obvious propaganda. He might be a lot of things but he is a highly intelligent and rational operator. How can I even have a conversation with someone who swallows all this BBC jizz. It is pointless. On the upside you won’t have to worry about your heating bills when you are incinerated.

[Malcolm]

55 minutes ago, thplinth said:

I can’t really help you answer your question Malcolm as it is clear your head is full of propaganda mince. You think the president of Russia is mad and that explains what is going on. 😃 wow. This is really stupid and obvious propaganda. He might be a lot of things but he is a highly intelligent and rational operator. How can I even have a conversation with someone who swallows all this BBC jizz. It is pointless. On the upside you won’t have to worry about your heating bills when you are incinerated.

toasty beyond belief for a millisecond! 😀

[Ally Bongo]

Saying Putin is mad is like saying Hitler, Stalin and Islamic extremists were/are mad

Creating a boogie man helps us rationalise things

However there are small margins between mad, bad and extreme nationalistic/ religious beliefs that go against our own

Putin believes he is right but so do all the others

Its where you draw the line

[Kirk]

22 hours ago, mccaughey85 said:

So how do you plan on surviving?

I'll get on with my life and see what happens. If shit hits the fan we are done for in Scotland anyway

[er yir macaroon]

Biden talking up the dangers (rightly) and I think this may be to prepare the way for a negotiated settlement. He talked about “looking for an off ramp” for Putin. The West won’t be too bothered if Ukraine loses ground as long as it isn’t a strategic problem (for the West). Ukraine haven’t got much leverage because if the weapons (and ammo) dry up, Russia will eventually prevail. I think some kind of neutral, demilitarised  status for the Donbas and Crimea is most likely. Some kind of schengen arrangement. Putin would come up with an excuse to save face and declare it as some kind of victory. The Black Sea fleet would probably have to go elsewhere though. The alternatives are not good especially if Russia is facing defeat in Crimea, that along with the potential destruction of the Black Sea fleet by Ukraine is where the nukes would most likely come in.

[ger intae them]

Yes, strange position to be in for west where defeating the ‘enemy’ is more dangerous than being defeated.

[Squirrelhumper]

11 hours ago, Kirk said:

I'll get on with my life and see what happens. If shit hits the fan we are done for in Scotland anyway

Exactly - pointless worrying about it.