Coronavirus

[Hercules Rockefeller]

10 minutes ago, phart said:

What do you mean by evasion? Complete evasion or reduced effectiveness?

Variant B.1.351 has significantly escaped the AZ vaccine with regards to mild/moderate symptoms. Although we need to establish what parameters we're talking about.

Applauding mass movement of people during a pandemic where less than 50% of the population are fully protected via vaccination isn't a sentiment i can find any merit in.

You'd need to ask the original commenter, but I'd define evasion as complete evasion as opposed to reduced effectiveness. If a virus isn't causing significant loss of life/hospitalisations then what's the problem? Certainly I wouldn't define having very mild symptoms as being evasive.

For some perspective on numbers, 17 people in Scotland died with coronavirus over the past week; 2 of the 17 were under 65. 1,043 people died from all causes in the same time period.

Time for everyone to get on with life and enjoy themselves again.

[phart]

6 minutes ago, Hercules Rockefeller said:

You'd need to ask the original commenter, but I'd define evasion as complete evasion as opposed to reduced effectiveness. If a virus isn't causing significant loss of life/hospitalisations then what's the problem? Certainly I wouldn't define having very mild symptoms as being evasive.

For some perspective on numbers, 17 people in Scotland died with coronavirus over the past week; 2 of the 17 were under 65. 1,043 people died from all causes in the same time period.

Time for everyone to get on with life and enjoy themselves again.

Time will tell what the best strategy proves to be. Everyone will have their own bar to what is tolerable.

Everyone dies, the nuance is in deciding whta is tolerant, over 65's dying being less bad than under 65's dying seems to be a dividing line for you. Others divide by religion or race instead of age.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Just now, phart said:

Time will tell what the best strategy proves to be. Everyone will have their own bar to what is tolerable.

Everyone dies, the nuance is in deciding whta is tolerant, over 65's dying being less bad than under 65's dying seems to be a dividing line for you. Others divide by religion or race instead of age.

Straight to the emotional appeal as opposed to facts is usually an admission of defeat, so thanks very much.

Certainly time will tell what the correct strategy is; let's see where countries such as New Zealand that have built up no immunity amongst their population are in a year's time.

Anyone with common sense would realise it's to demonstrate the likelihood is the deaths are amongst older people who haven't been vaccinated.

[Lamia]

Dying isn't the only impact even those who don't go to hospital will have an impact. Staffing shortages in schools, hospitals from even mild illnesss could be significant if large numbers are infected at any one time. Then we have Long Covid which seems to affect a significant minority.

Of course we do at some point need to find ways to get back to as normal as possible but that would have been significantly easier if we had endured tougher restrictions for longer but of course the football took priority never mind whatever the reason restriction on travel have been so weak.

[Orraloon]

Almost 4000 cases today. If it keeps increasing at this rate it will be a good test for herd immunity in the younger generations. Hope it works.

In the meantime I'm avoiding youngsters like the plague. 

[Hertsscot]

Took a lateral flow test earlier and was negative. Head of sixth form had said 3 out of 7 cases had come up as negative on LFT but had been positive when PCR was done. School has now sent a message to all staff and students telling them to do an extra test this evening.Two and a half weeks to go before the  end of term but not sure whether we will make it.

[phart]

1 hour ago, Hercules Rockefeller said:

Straight to the emotional appeal as opposed to facts is usually an admission of defeat, so thanks very much.

Certainly time will tell what the correct strategy is; let's see where countries such as New Zealand that have built up no immunity amongst their population are in a year's time.

Anyone with common sense would realise it's to demonstrate the likelihood is the deaths are amongst older people who haven't been vaccinated.

You've invented a whole dialogue that doesn't exist in which the end result is someone conceeding defeat to you and you then magnanimously accept said admission you bested someone, it's both infantile and narcissitic, but also highly amusing.

I used reductio ad absurdum on your argument that 65 was a delineating factor. Then you straw-manned in a whole argument.

We know that 57% of deaths have been in double vaccinated population (this is English figures not got the Scottish ones to hand) Figures in table 4 of this report. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

50/117 deaths (43%) and ~10% of hospital admissions were in people who weren't fully vaccinated.

So common sense may tell you whatever but the actual data disagrees with "common sense", in fact it refutes it being a likelihood at all. But then there's me with my emotional notion of empiricism and data analysis as opposed to just going by the hard impartial gaze of common sense and it being "time for everyone to get on with life and enjoy themselves again. "

So what's that about emotions over facts?

 

 

[phart]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Almost 4000 cases today. If it keeps increasing at this rate it will be a good test for herd immunity in the younger generations. Hope it works.

In the meantime I'm avoiding youngsters like the plague. 

r0 might be as high as 7 we'd need close to 90% of total populations to achieve herd immunity and no reduction in immunity over time for it to be maintained.

Good news is vaccines seem to have reduced the hospital admissions from 8-10% down to 3% deaths we still need more data for but considering 99% of deaths used to be in the fully vaccinated group and that's down to 57% is encouraging.

[phart]

In fact as vaccination continues the percentage of folk dying being fully vaccinated will increase to eventually close to 100%

[phart]

Also high cases causing other problems i see

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

44 minutes ago, phart said:

You've invented a whole dialogue that doesn't exist in which the end result is someone conceeding defeat to you and you then magnanimously accept said admission you bested someone, it's both infantile and narcissitic, but also highly amusing.

I used reductio ad absurdum on your argument that 65 was a delineating factor. Then you straw-manned in a whole argument.

We know that 57% of deaths have been in double vaccinated population (this is English figures not got the Scottish ones to hand) Figures in table 4 of this report. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

50/117 deaths (43%) and ~10% of hospital admissions were in people who weren't fully vaccinated.

So common sense may tell you whatever but the actual data disagrees with "common sense", in fact it refutes it being a likelihood at all. But then there's me with my emotional notion of empiricism and data analysis as opposed to just going by the hard impartial gaze of common sense and it being "time for everyone to get on with life and enjoy themselves again. "

So what's that about emotions over facts?

 

 

I'm flattered you've spent hours Googling Latin phrases and scouring the internet for reports to show a handful of people have who were vaccinated. It's a lovely evening - get out and make the most of it.

If your argument to maintain continued panic and covid restrictions is based on a miniscule number of unvaccinated people who have died then fair enough. Difference of opinion.

[phart]

42 minutes ago, Hercules Rockefeller said:

I'm flattered you've spent hours Googling Latin phrases and scouring the internet for reports to show a handful of people have who were vaccinated. It's a lovely evening - get out and make the most of it.

If your argument to maintain continued panic and covid restrictions is based on a miniscule number of unvaccinated people who have died then fair enough. Difference of opinion.

Again inventing these narratives about folk spending hours thinking about you or bowing down to you. Have you reflected on why you keep having these self absorbed day-dreams about folk on a board?

These are well known terms i learned them decades ago.

The gaps in my replies to you have come from me being outside walking/running while listening to podcasts. In fact i've walked/ran 22 km today. I've certainly been enjoying it.

I have never made an argument about maintaing continued panic.

Anyway I doubt either of us will find further interaction useful in anyway, neither of us are decision makers on this so our opinions are largely irrelevant which is why i haven't suggested a course of action I don't consider myself qualified enough to do so.

[Debian]

On 2/28/2020 at 5:24 PM, Orraloon said:

Starting to look like it is past the peak. As long there are no more major upward spikes in the next 3 weeks it should hopefully start to fizzle out. 

 

On 2/28/2020 at 6:06 PM, Debian said:

Past it's peak? It's now just starting to come out and spread properly.  This has a long way to go IMO.

 

 

Sakes @Orraloon ! 

[Scotty CTA]

Ontario (population 15M) is reporting 184 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday June 30th, marking the first time the case count is below 200 in nearly 10 months. 

The death toll in the province has risen to 9,168 as 14 more deaths were recorded. 

As of 8 p.m. on Tuesday June 29th, more than 14.4 million total COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered. That marked another new record increase of 268,397 vaccines (23,696 for a first shot and 244,701 for a second shot) in the last day.

There are more than 4.8 million people fully immunized with two doses which is 39.2 per cent of the adult (18+) population. First dose adult coverage stands at 77.7 per cent.

Test positivity for Wednesday hit 1 per cent, the last time it was that low was on Sept. 25 when it was also at 1 per cent. 

[Orraloon]

10 hours ago, Debian said:

 

 

Sakes @Orraloon ! 

Hey, I can't be right all the time. Sometimes I can make minor misjudgments. 

It's not the worst prediction I've come away with. Once upon a time I thought that Garry Kenneth would be a future Scotland captain, solve our central defence problems and go on to get close to 100 caps. He ended up playing for Carnoustie Panmure and Lochee United and we still haven't solved our shyte central defence. 

[Alibi]

20 hours ago, Hercules Rockefeller said:

Name one piece of evidence where a variant has evaded any of the approved vaccines?

 

Good on everyone who went down I say, great to see people out enjoying themselves again.

So far, fortunately, the vaccines are working pretty well.  However the more cases there are, the more likelihood of a variant that gets past the vaccine - meaning the vaccines then have to be modified or we're back to square one.  But hey, what's a few deaths when folk can have a good time?  What's the harm in bringing more delta covid back to Scotland?  The figures suggest that a significant proportion of those who went to London picked up the infection and in all probability spread it within Scotland when they got back.  Your attitude is incredibly selfish.

[kumnio]

Record breaking figures this week, it’s really sky rocketing. 

[phart]

100 more people in hospital than a week ago which is pretty bad. Deaths lagging of course but still seem to be low thankfully.

Hospitals filling up with contagious people isn't good for all the other patients though, nor indeed the NHS staff who've been working in terrible conditions on and off for 16 months now.

[phart]

more ONS stats on long covid.

 

[kumnio]

6 hours ago, phart said:

100 more people in hospital than a week ago which is pretty bad. Deaths lagging of course but still seem to be low thankfully.

Hospitals filling up with contagious people isn't good for all the other patients though, nor indeed the NHS staff who've been working in terrible conditions on and off for 16 months now.

My dad had a minor heart attack on Monday and has been in hospital since then, he was due to have a stent put in yesterday, but the ward was put in lockdown after a patient was diagnosed with COVID. Thankfully he is fine, but just a bit bored.

Ninewells in Dundee have opened a third COVID ward in the last few days, and are still getting new patients. It’s looking a bit grim. 

[Lamia]

54 minutes ago, kumnio said:

My dad had a minor heart attack on Monday and has been in hospital since then, he was due to have a stent put in yesterday, but the ward was put in lockdown after a patient was diagnosed with COVID. Thankfully he is fine, but just a bit bored.

Ninewells in Dundee have opened a third COVID ward in the last few days, and are still getting new patients. It’s looking a bit grim. 

Not great for your dad but glad to hear he is ok. The people who think we shouldn't bother with the number of cases need to think about this impact never mind the many others.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

10 hours ago, Alibi said:

So far, fortunately, the vaccines are working pretty well.  However the more cases there are, the more likelihood of a variant that gets past the vaccine - meaning the vaccines then have to be modified or we're back to square one.  But hey, what's a few deaths when folk can have a good time?  What's the harm in bringing more delta covid back to Scotland?  The figures suggest that a significant proportion of those who went to London picked up the infection and in all probability spread it within Scotland when they got back.  Your attitude is incredibly selfish.

The latest research actually shows your immune system will cope with new strains of the virus so no need to panic at all. The far bigger worry is the effects of lockdown in terms of the education gap, mental health consequences, undiagnosed cancers, businesses winding up, and so on.

Living in Edinburgh the papers are full of hysteria about the delta variant. Number of covid deaths? Three since 26th April.

Time to get the economy moving. If anything you should be thanking everyone that went down to London.

[Scotty CTA]

6 hours ago, kumnio said:

My dad had a minor heart attack on Monday and has been in hospital since then...

Best Wishes.

[phart]

10 hours ago, kumnio said:

My dad had a minor heart attack on Monday and has been in hospital since then, he was due to have a stent put in yesterday, but the ward was put in lockdown after a patient was diagnosed with COVID. Thankfully he is fine, but just a bit bored.

Ninewells in Dundee have opened a third COVID ward in the last few days, and are still getting new patients. It’s looking a bit grim. 

Hopefully your dad is OK.

It's this huge balancing act that has to be done between all these other factors.

[Jim Beem]

11 hours ago, kumnio said:

My dad had a minor heart attack on Monday and has been in hospital since then, he was due to have a stent put in yesterday, but the ward was put in lockdown after a patient was diagnosed with COVID. Thankfully he is fine, but just a bit bored.

Ninewells in Dundee have opened a third COVID ward in the last few days, and are still getting new patients. It’s looking a bit grim. 

Hope the old man is OK.

It appears as if Whitfield is the new Wuhan 🤦🏻